lcll annual lecture 2015

Welcome to the

LCLL Annual Lecture

The next 5 years: challenges and

opportunities for school leaders

Robert Hill

Speaker Robert Hill

Respondents Sian Carr

Russell Hobby

Chris Husbands

Dan Moynihan

Chair Toby Greany

Twitter hashtag#NXT5YEARS

Robert Hill Consulting

Valley of the 10 peaks


“This is the best

place for those

who like to do

hiking”


Challenge 1: Rise in pupil numbers

Source: DfE SFR 23/2014

+ Extra places and hours for under 5s?

• 650,000

more pupils

in schools

by 2020

• 500 new

free schools

• All good

schools

(including

grammars)

allowed to

expand


Challenge 1: Rise in pupil numbers

Source: DfE SFR 23/2014

+ Extra places and hours for under 5s?

+ 600,000 extra places and doubling of

hours for three and four year olds


Challenge 2: Teacher recruitment

Source: New entrants to initial teacher training 2008-15, DfE as reported at

http://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-is-a-teacher-shortage-looming-34990

• Some areas

– e.g. coastal

areas – are

particularly

finding it hard

to attract

good

teachers

• A new core

ITT

framework on

the way


Challenge 2: Teacher recruitment

Source: New teacher entrants by subject compared to target (2014-15), DfE as reported at http://theconversation.com/hard-

evidence-is-a-teacher-shortage-looming-34990

An extra

17,500 maths

and physics

teachers to be

trained over

the Parliament


Challenge 3: Growing the leadership pipeline

• Around 10,000 heads, deputies and

assistant heads are aged 55 and over*

• Filling primary headship vacancies is

already a particular challenge

• The threat of RI sanctions will further

disincentivise applicants

• Will the licensing model for leadership

development continue?

• DfE intervening directly – e.g.

commissioning Talented Leaders

*Source: DfE SFR 11/2014 Table 8b


Challenge 4: Funding constraints

• Commitment to protect cash spending per pupil – including

the extra pupils in the system

• Implies a real-terms cuts to school spending per head of 7%

between 2015/16 and 2019/20

• This rises to 9% when increases in National Insurance and

pension contributions are factored in…

• …and to 12% if the OBR’s assumption for likely growth in

public sector earnings is included

• Pupil Premium protected ‘at current rates’ but Early Years

and 16-19 education not included in the ‘protection’

Source: IFS Briefing Note (BN 168) amended

• Whither a

single

funding

formula?

• What

happens if

schools start

running up

huge

deficits?


Challenge 5: Curriculum & assessment

changes• Baseline assessment for 4 year olds

• Resits for those not meeting Level 4 at KS2

• New SATs in 2016

• New curriculum and GCSEs in maths and English

from September 2015 and in other subjects from

September 2016

• Require all pupils to take Ebacc subjects (linked

to compulsory setting?)

• New AS and A level syllabuses taught from

September 2015 onwards

• Big expansion of apprenticeships

“Many of the

teachers in our study

were still developing

their classroom

enactment of the new

curriculum at least 4-

5 years after the

introduction of the

reform”

Source: Teachers’ experience of

science reform, Ryder et al,

School Science Review, March

2014


Challenge 6: Accountability measures

• Commission on life beyond Levels

• Revised Ofsted framework in September 2015

• Progress 8 reporting of GCSE results from 2016

• New GCSE grading structure from 2017 onwards

• New performance metrics for 16-19 providers from 2016

• Reporting of multi-academy trust performance

• SATs results published in scaled and ranked format

• Higher floor standards and RI schools to be taken over

Discontinuity

will make

comparisons

over time

difficult


Challenge 7: Improving attainment...

We are average –

not world beaters


Challenge 7: …including closing the gap

Absolute child poverty

increased by 300,000

between 2010/11 and

2012/13…independent

experts expect child

poverty to increase

significantly over the

next few years

Source: DfE KS4 headline attainment gap – see https://theconversation.com/fact-

check-is-the-pupil-premium-narrowing-the-attainment-gap-39601

Source: State of the Nation 2014:

Social Mobility and Child Poverty in

Great Britain


Challenge 8: Impact of technology

Average digital confidence score

Source: Ofcom, Communications Market Report, August 2014

“We hit our peak

confidence and

understanding of

digital

communications

and technology

when we are in our

mid-teens; this

drops gradually up

to our late 50s and

then falls rapidly

from 60 and

beyond”


Challenge 9: Managing mission creep

To do list

1. Improving progress and raising attainment

2. Keeping children safe and preventing sexual

exploitation

3. Reducing obesity

4. Ensuring mental wellbeing

5. Promoting British values (and preventing

extremism)

6. Developing skills as well as knowledge

7. Providing childcare

Do we have a shared

understanding of

what education is

for?


Challenge 10: Maturing the self-improving

system

Local

authorities

Regional

School

Commissioner

s

Groups of

schools (TSAs,

MATs

federations

etc)

Schools

Different roles

being exercised by

various players in

different parts of

the country – LAs

still playing a key

role (especially in

relation to

primaries) in many

areas

Who is responsible and accountable for what and how

does the interface work?

Regional

Teaching

School

Councils


Challenge 10: Maturing the self-improving

system

Not that much

difference in the

distribution of LA

and MAT

performance but

MATs could

become the norm

Source: Chris Cook blog http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-32038695


It’s best to hike as a group


So…

School leaders could over the next five

years exercise collaborative leadership

to:

• Remodel how we train teachers

• Redefine professional development

• Recast leadership of learning

• Develop school-led improvement across the

system

• Build a leadership pipeline

• Use resources more productively


…but

Only if collaboration is organised to

reflect the disciplines of effective

partnership by:

• Applying scale, structured collaboration, fit

governance and hard accountability

• Balancing hierarchy and networking

• Ensuring all schools are part of an effective

school improvement group

• Resolving leadership of place, local

oversight and orchestration of collaboration


Remodel how we train teachers

Training year NQT year NQT+1 year

Deliver core content covering knowledge, classroom skills and

research/learning impact skills over three years

• Delivered by HEI/school consortia

• School placements potentially to continue over the three years

• Rationalisation of routes into teaching


• Lit reviews

• Toolkits

• Reading groups

• Speakers

• Teach meets

• Seminars

• Training

• Master classes

1. New knowledge

2. Improved

experience and

outcomes for

pupils

3. Teachers

supported to be

learners and so

better equipped

to teach

• Lesson study

• Action research

• Pupil-led

research

• Peer coaching

• Classroom-

based Masters

• Online forums

and observation

Directors of T&L or research help orchestrate the model within and across schools

What do we

know?

What works in our

context?

What’s the

impact?

Evaluate impact, effect size, RCTs

* Adapted from an idea by Sarah Stafford - http://miss-stafford.com

Redefine professional development(this should be the agenda for a Royal College of Teaching)


Schools

Schools

School

Effective emerging innovation



Best practice

Best practice

Best practice

Research

Research

Research

Best practice

Time

Perf

orm

ance

Source: George Berwick and Challenge Partners

Develop school-led improvement across the

systemStage 1

Isolation

Stage 2

Initiation

Stage 3

Engagement

Stage 4

Integration

Research



Recast leadership of learning

Leading

learning

within

schools

Leading

learning

between

schools

Leading

learning

across the

system

• Participate as a learner

• Focus on precise areas

for improvement

• Orchestrate the work of

coaches

• Use collaborative

groups and learning

cycles

• Monitor impact

• Share knowledge and

learning openly

• Write up and publish

learning from action

research

• Participate in research

networks

• Participate in RCTs

• Work to clear priorities that reflect schools’ improvement needs

• Empower (and employ) middle leaders to move effective practice across schools

• Champion and build trust to extend and deepen impact

Slide adapted from an idea

developed by Joanne Quinn,

Three keys to maximising

impact, 2015


Build a leadership pipeline

• Partnerships, and

particularly MATs,

provide the basis for

leadership

assignments and

secondments

• Development,

standards and

accreditation led by

a sector led

Education

Leadership

Foundation?


Use resources more productively

The potential for partnerships and MATs to

be more efficient is considerable:

• Shared posts and roles – particularly at

leadership level and in specialist areas

• Shared services – HR, EWO, ICT, etc

• Joint procurement

• Integrated financial planning and business

management

• Centralised data analysis

• Common performance management and

more flexible deployment of staff


The disciplines of effective partnership…

3-5

10-15

150

30-50

Understanding

scale



3-5

10-15

150

30-50

Partnership or MAT

Executive

principal

Executive

principal

Understanding

scale

Structured collaboration

Board – trustees/directors



3-5

10-15

150

30-50

Partnership or MAT

Executive

principal

Executive

principal

Understanding

scale


Members


Local governing bodies

Layered and fit governance

People of calibre

Training & development

Clear schemes of delegation



3-5

10-15

150

30-50

Partnership or MAT

Executive

principal

Executive

principal

Understanding

scale


Members


Local governing bodies

Layered and fit governance

People of calibre

Training & development

Clear schemes of delegation

Quality assurance and

accountability of all

schools in the group


…balancing hierarchy and networking…

Joint practice

development

Talent management and leadership development

High social

capital

Shared understanding of how to improve teaching and learning

Fit governance

Executive leadership

Quality

assurance

systems

Clear vision and

strategy

Integrated

support

services


…ensuring all schools are part of an effective

school improvement group…

• Expectation over the next five years that

all schools have to be part of a local

school improvement group

• Schools able to choose partners but some

steering of the overall process

• School improvement groups supported to

develop depth and impact

• Accreditation of school groups – as per

New York?


…and resolving leadership of place, local

oversight and orchestration of collaboration

Schools

and groups

of schools

• Agreed vision &

strategy

• School-to-school

support system

• Deploying expertise

• Joining up

• Capacity building

• Challenge and

accountability

• Intervention in

extremis

Leaders with the

right skills and

behaviours

Shared moral

purpose and

trust

Middle tierPupils Public

Need clarification of

role and relationship

of RSCs vis a vis local

authoritiesRelationship mediated

though headteacher boards

Aspirational and

adaptive

leadership

Adapted from an idea by Aston et al, What

works in enabling school improvement?

The role of the middle tier, NfER


This scenario we should be moving to

Schools increasingly

working in hard clusters led

by executive leaders…



…as part of a MAT,

TSA and/or

broader school

network(s)that

focus on improving

teaching and

learning









…as part of a MAT,

TSA or broader

school network(s)

that focus on

improving teaching

and learning

..as part of a sub region that

coordinates supply of pupil

places, recruitment and training

of teachers, development and,

in some cases, deployment of

leaders and that oversees

school progress


Collaboration could yield a rich harvest…

• More even rates of improvement across

the country

• A sustainable model of school leadership

and improvement

• A better trained and developed workforce

• Rebalancing of the inspection system

• Schools leaders shaping the evolution of

education policy


..but will it happen?

• Are schools leaders

confident enough to drive

this agenda?

• Are school leaders

sufficiently committed to

working with each other to

improve the system?

• Or will school leaders wait

to be told what to do?

• Or will school leaders and

MATs retreat into competing

baronies?

lcll annual lecture 2015

Documents