lbo test_75
DESCRIPTION
Learn how to build LBO financial modelTRANSCRIPT
Assumptions CapitalizationInterest Income 2% Current Share Price $30.00 Implied Entry Multiple FD Shares 50 Exit Multiple 6.0xTax Rate 40% % Premium 35.0%Amortization 5 yearsMinimum Cash Bala 10 Advisory Fees 15Financing Fees 5
RatesTerm 3.0x 8%Sr. Sub 1.5x 12%Mezz 0.5x 8%/4%ASP Growth 3%D&A 10Days Receivable 70Days Payable 65Days Inventory 45
2007A 2008A 2009AASP $4.35 $5.93 $7.14 Volume 100 120 130 15.00%Revenue $435 $711 $928
COGS (214) (284) (328)
Operating Expenses (103) (75) (87)
Interest Expense (77) (92) (93)
Memo: Capex (8) (10) (11)
Balance Sheet 2009ACash $159 A/R 96 Inventory 50 Prepaid Expenses 4
Total Current Assets $309
PPE 1,500 Goodwill 0 Total Assets $1,809
A/P 25 Accrued Liability 63
Total Current Liabilities $89
Debt 1,357 Total Liabilities $1,446
Shareholder's Equity 364 Total Liabilities & SE $1,809
12.50% 10.00% 7.50% 5.00%
Assumptions Capitalization SourcesInterest Income 2% Current Share Pric $30.00 TermImplied Entry Multiple FD Shares 50 Sr. SubExit Multiple 6.0x Purchase Accounting MezzTax Rate 40% % Premium 35.0% Cash Less Min. BalAmortization 5 years Purchase Share Pri $40.5 Sponsor EquityMinimum Cash Bala 10 Equity Value 2,025.0 TotalAdvisory Fees 15 Plus: Debt 1,357.2 Financing Fees 5 Less: Cash (159.1) Goodwill Accounting
Rates Enterprise Value 3,223.2 Purchase Equity ValueTerm 3.0x 8% Less: Book Value of EquitySr. Sub 1.5x 12% Plus: FeesMezz 0.5x 8%/4% GoodwillASP Growth 3%D&A 10Days Receivable 70Days Payable 65Days Inventory 452009 EBITDA $513.4 2014 EBITDA $956.0
Income Statement 2007A 2008A 2009A Adj 2009PF 2010E 2011E 2012EASP $4.35 $5.93 $7.14 $7.4 $7.6 $7.8 Volume 100 120 130 149.5 168.2 185.0
15.00% 12.50% 10.00%Revenue $435 $711 $928 ### ### ###
COGS (214) (284) (328) (388.3) (449.9) (509.7)COGS margin 49.1% 39.9% 35.3% 35.3% 35.3% 35.3% Operating Expenses (103) (75) (87) (102.6) (118.9) (134.8)Operating Expenses 23.7% 10.6% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% EBITDA $118.2 $352.4 $513.4 $608.1 $704.7 $798.4 D&A (10.0) (10.0) (10.0) (10.0) (10.0) (10.0)EBIT $108.2 $342.4 $503.4 $598.1 $694.7 $788.4 Interest Expense (77) (92) (93) (239.9) (223.5) (200.0)EBT $31.4 $250.6 $410.7 $358.2 $471.2 $588.4 Tax (12.6) (100.3) (164.3) (143.3) (188.5) (235.4)NI $18.9 $150.4 $246.4 $214.9 $282.7 $353.0 Memo: Capex (8) (10) (11)
Balance Sheet 2009A Adj 2009PF 2010E 2011E 2012E
Cash $159 (149.1) $10 $10 $10 $10 A/R 96 96 210.8 244.2 276.7 Inventory 50 50 47.9 55.5 62.8 Prepaid Expenses 4 4 4.9 5.7 6.5
Total Current Assets $309 ($149) $160 $274 $315 $356
PPE 1,500 1,500 1,500.0 1,500.0 1,500.0 Goodwill 0 1,681.3 1,681 1,681.3 1,681.3 1,681.3 Total Assets $1,809 $1,532 $3,342 $3,455 $3,497 $3,537
A/P 25 25 69.1 80.1 90.8 Accrued Liability 63 63 75.1 87.0 98.5
Total Current Liabilities $89 $89 $144 $167 $189
Debt 1,357 ### 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Term 1,540.2 1,540 1,372.5 1,098.1 752.4 Sr. Sub 770.1 770 770.1 770.1 770.1 Mezz 256.7 257 267.0 277.6 288.7 Total Liabilities ### ### ### ### ### ###
Shareholder's Equity 364 322.5 686 901.1 1,183.8 1,536.8 Total Liabilities & SE $1,809 $1,532 $3,342 $3,455 $3,497 $3,537 Check 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sales 927.8 1,099.0 1,273.5 1,442.8 COGS 327.8 388.3 449.9 509.7 Days Receivable 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 Days Payable 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 Days Inventory 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 Prepaid Margin 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% Accrued Margin 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8%
Cashflow StatementNI $214.9 $282.7 $353.0 D&A 10.0 10.0 10.0 Non Cash Interest 10.3 10.7 11.1 Change in WC (57.5) (18.9) (18.4)CFO $177.7 $284.4 $355.7
Capex (10.0) (10.0) (10.0)CFI ($10.0) ($10.0) ($10.0)
Cash Availiable for Debt Paydown $167.7 $274.4 $345.7
Borrowing/(Repayment) (167.7) (274.4) (345.7)CFF ($167.7) ($274.4) ($345.7)
Beg. Cash $10 $10 $10 Change in Cash 0.0 0.0 0.0 End. Cash $10 $10 $10
Debt Payment SchduleTermBeg. Balance 1,540.2 1,372.5 1,098.1 Optional Payment (167.7) (274.4) (345.7)End Balance 1,540.2 1,372.5 1,098.1 752.4
Interest Expense 8.0% 116.5 98.8 74.0
Sr. SubBeg. Balance 770.1 770.1 770.1 Optional Payment 0.0 0.0 0.0 End Balance 770.1 770.1 770.1 770.1
Interest Expense 12.0% 92.4 92.4 92.4
MezzBeg. Balance 256.7 267.0 277.6 PIK 4.0% 10.3 10.7 11.1 End Balance 256.7 267.0 277.6 288.7
Interest Expense 8.0% 20.9 21.8 22.7
Total Interest Expense 240.1 223.7 200.2 Interest Income (0.2) (0.2) (0.2)Net Interest Expense 239.9 223.5 200.0
IRRMultiple
Enterprise Value 5.0x 3,040.6 3,523.3 3,991.8 6.0x 3,648.7 4,227.9 4,790.2 7.0x 4,256.8 4,932.6 5,588.6
Net Debt 2,399.6 2,135.8 1,801.2
Equity Value 5.0x 641.0 1,387.4 2,190.7 6.0x 1,249.1 2,092.1 2,989.0 7.0x 1,857.2 2,796.7 3,787.4
IRR 5.0x (6.6%) 42.2% 47.2% 6.0x 82.0% 74.6% 63.3% 7.0x 170.7% 101.9% 76.7%
Equity Premium25.00% 30.0% 35.0%
Exit
Mu
ltip
le 3.0x 29.4% 26.1% 23.2% 4.0x 40.2% 36.5% 33.4% 5.0x 48.4% 44.6% 41.2% 6.0x 55.1% 51.1% 47.6% 7.0x 60.8% 56.7% 53.1% 8.0x 65.8% 61.6% 57.9%
Uses1,540.2 Equity Purchase 2,025.0
770.1 Refinancing of Debt 1,357.2 256.7 Advisory Fees 15.0
Cash Less Min. Bal 149.1 Financing Fees 5.0 Sponsor Equity 686.2 Total 3,402.2
3,402.2
Goodwill AccountingPurchase Equity Value 2,025.0 Less: Book Value of Equity (364)Plus: Fees 20.0
1,681.3
2013E 2014E$8.0 $8.3
198.9 208.8 7.50% 5.00%
### ###
(564.4) (610.4)35.3% 35.3% (149.2) (161.4)
9.3% 9.3% $884.0 $956.0
(10.0) (10.0)$874.0 $946.0 (170.8) (133.2)$703.1 $812.9 (281.3) (325.2)$421.9 $487.7
2013E 2014E
$10 $10 306.4 331.4
69.6 75.3 7.2 7.7
$393 $424
1,500.0 1,500.0 1,681.3 1,681.3 $3,574 $3,606
100.5 108.7 109.1 118.0 $210 $227
0.0 0.0 335.7 0.0 770.1 620.2 300.3 312.3
### ###
1,958.7 2,446.4 $3,574 $3,606
0.0 0.0
1,597.6 1,727.8 564.4 610.4
70.0 70.0 65.0 65.0 45.0 45.0 0.4% 0.4% 6.8% 6.8%
$421.9 $487.7 10.0 10.0 11.5 12.0
(16.8) (14.1)$426.6 $495.6
(10.0) (10.0)($10.0) ($10.0)
$416.6 $485.6
(416.6) (485.6)($416.6) ($485.6)
$10 $10 0.0 0.0
$10 $10
752.4 335.7 (416.6) (335.7)335.7 0.0
43.5 13.4
770.1 770.1 0.0 (149.9)
770.1 620.2
92.4 83.4
288.7 300.3 11.5 12.0
300.3 312.3
23.6 24.5
171.0 133.4 (0.2) (0.2)
170.8 133.2
4,420.0 4,780.2 5,304.0 5,736.2 6,188.0 6,692.3
1,396.1 922.5
3,023.9 3,857.7 3,907.9 4,813.7 4,791.9 5,769.8
44.9% 41.2% 54.5% 47.6% 62.6% 53.1%
Equity Premium40.0% 45.0%
20.6% 18.4% 30.7% 28.3% 38.3% 35.8% 44.6% 41.9% 49.9% 47.2% 54.6% 51.7%
Assumptions CapitalizationInterest Income 2% Current Share Price $30.00 Implied Entry Multiple FD Shares 50 Exit Multiple 6.0x Purchase AssumptionTax Rate 40% % Premium 35.0%Amortization 5 years Purchase Share Pri $40.5 Minimum Cash Bala 10 Equity Value 2,025.0 Advisory Fees 15 Plus: Debt 1,445.7 Financing Fees 5 Less: Cash (159.1)
Rates Enterprise Value 3,311.7 Term 3.0x 8%Sr. Sub 1.5x 12%Mezz 0.5x 8%/4%ASP Growth 3%D&A 10Days Receivable 70Days Payable 65Days Inventory 452009 Ebitda 513.4
2007A 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011EASP 4.4 5.9 7.1 7.4 7.6
3% 3%Volume 100.0 120.0 130.0 149.5 168.2
15.00% 12.50%Revenue 435.2 711.4 927.8 1,099.0 1,273.5 COGS (213.9) (283.8) (327.8) (388.3) (449.9)Margin 49.1% 39.9% 35.3% 35.3% 35.3% Operating Expenses (103.1) (75.2) (86.7) (102.6) (118.9)Margin 23.7% 10.6% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% Ebitda 118.2 352.4 513.4 608.1 704.7 Dep & Amort (10.0) (10.0) (10.0) (10.0) (10.0)Ebit 108.2 342.4 503.4 598.1 694.7 Interest Expense (76.7) (91.8) (92.7) (239.9) (223.5)Ebt 31.4 250.6 410.7 358.2 471.2 Tax (12.6) (100.3) (164.3) (143.3) (188.5)NI 18.9 150.4 246.4 214.9 282.7 Memo: Capex (8) (10) (11)
Balance Sheet 2009A Adj 2009PF 2010E 2011E
Cash $159.1 (149.1) $10.0 10.0 10.0 A/R 96.2 96.2 210.8 244.2 Inventory 50.0 50.0 47.9 55.5 Prepaid Expenses 4.2 4.2 4.9 5.7
Total Current Assets $309.4 ($149.1) $160.4 $273.6 $315.4
PPE 1,500.0 1,500.0 1,500.0 1,500.0 Goodwill 0.0 1,681.3 1,681.3 1,681.3 1,681.3 Total Assets ### ### ### ### ###
A/P 25.1 25.1 69.1 80.1 Accrued Liability 63.4 63.4 75.1 87.0
Total Current Liabilities $88.5 $0.0 $88.5 $144.2 $167.1
Existing Debt 1,357.2 (1,357.2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Term 1,540.2 1,540.2 1,372.5 1,098.1 Sr. Sub 770.1 770.1 770.1 770.1 Mezz 256.7 256.7 267.0 277.6 Total Liabilities ### ### ### ### ###
Shareholder's Equity 363.7 322.5 686.2 901.1 1,183.8 Total Liabilities & SE ### ### ### ### ###
Check 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sales 927.8 1,099.0 1,273.5 Cogs 327.8 388.3 449.9
Days Receivable 70.0 70.0 70.0 Days Payable 65.0 65.0 65.0 Days Inventory 45.0 45.0 45.0 Prepaid Margin 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% Accured Margin 6.8% 6.8% 6.8%
Statement of Cash Flow
NI 214.9 282.7 Dep & Amort 10.0 10.0 Non Cash Interest 10.3 10.7 Change in WC (57.5) (18.9)CFO 177.7 284.4
Capex (10.0) (10.0)CFI (10.0) (10.0)
Cash Availiable for Debt Payment 167.7 274.4
Debt Repayment/Borrowing (167.7) (274.4)CFF (167.7) (274.4)
Beg. Cash 10.0 10.0 Change in Cash 0.0 0.0 End Cash 10.0 10.0 10.0
Debt Payment Schedule
TermBeg Bal 1,540.2 1,372.5 Optional Payment (167.7) (274.4)End Bal 1,540.2 1,372.5 1,098.1
Sr. SubBeg Bal 770.1 770.1 Optional Payment 0.0 0.0 End Bal 770.1 770.1 770.1
MezzBeg Bal 256.7 267.0 PIK 4.0% 10.3 10.7 End Bal 256.7 267.0 277.6
Interest ExpenseTerm 8.0% (116.5) (98.8)Sr. Sub 12.0% (92.4) (92.4)Mezz 8.0% (20.9) (21.8)PIK (10.3) (10.7)Interest Income 2.0% 0.2 0.2 Net Interest Expense (239.9) (223.5)
Sources UsesTerm 1,540.2 Equity Value 2,025.0 Sr. Sub 770.1 Debt Refinancing 1,357.2 Mezz 256.7 Advisory Fees 15.0 Cash - Min. Bal 149.1 Financing Fees 5.0 Sponsor Equity 686.2 Total Uses 3,402.2 Total Sources 3,402.2
Purchase AccountingPurchase Price 2,025.0 BV of Equity (363.7)Excess Purchase Price 1,661.3 Advisory Fees 15.0 Financing Fees 5.0 Goodwill 1,681.3
2012E 2013E 2014E7.8 8.0 8.3 3% 3% 3%
185.0 198.9 208.8 10.00% 7.50% 5.00%
1,442.8 1,597.6 1,727.8 (509.7) (564.4) (610.4)35.3% 35.3% 35.3% (134.8) (149.2) (161.4)
9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 798.4 884.0 956.0 (10.0) (10.0) (10.0)788.4 874.0 946.0
(200.0) (170.8) (133.2)588.4 703.1 812.9
(235.4) (281.3) (325.2)353.0 421.9 487.7
2012E 2013E 2014E
10.0 10.0 10.0 276.7 306.4 331.4
62.8 69.6 75.3 6.5 7.2 7.7
$356.0 $393.1 $424.4
1,500.0 1,500.0 1,500.0 1,681.3 1,681.3 1,681.3
### ### ###
90.8 100.5 108.7 98.5 109.1 118.0
$189.3 $209.6 $226.7
0.0 0.0 0.0 752.4 335.7 0.0 770.1 770.1 620.2 288.7 300.3 312.3
### ### ###
1,536.8 1,958.7 2,446.4 ### ### ###
0.0 0.0 0.0
1,442.8 1,597.6 1,727.8 509.7 564.4 610.4
70.0 70.0 70.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8%
353.0 421.9 487.7 10.0 10.0 10.0 11.1 11.5 12.0
(18.4) (16.8) (14.1)355.7 426.6 495.6
(10.0) (10.0) (10.0)(10.0) (10.0) (10.0)
345.7 416.6 485.6
(345.7) (416.6) (485.6)(345.7) (416.6) (485.6)
10.0 10.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10.0 10.0 10.0
1,098.1 752.4 335.7 (345.7) (416.6) (335.7)752.4 335.7 0.0
770.1 770.1 770.1 0.0 0.0 (149.9)
770.1 770.1 620.2
277.6 288.7 300.3 11.1 11.5 12.0
288.7 300.3 312.3
(74.0) (43.5) (13.4)(92.4) (92.4) (83.4)(22.7) (23.6) (24.5)(11.1) (11.5) (12.0)
0.2 0.2 0.2 (200.0) (170.8) (133.2)
Assumptions CapitalizationInterest Income 2% Current Share Price $30.00 Implied Entry Multi 6.3x FD Shares 50 Exit Multiple 6.0x Purchase AssumptionsTax Rate 40% % Premium 35.0%Amortization 5 years Purchase Price/Sha 40.5Minimum Cash Bala 10 Equity Value ###Advisory Fees 15 Net Debt ###Financing Fees 5 Enterprise Value ###
RatesTerm 3.0x 8%Sr. Sub 1.5x 12%Mezz 0.5x 8%/4%
5.0x
ASP Growth 3%D&A 10Days Receivable 70Days Payable 65Days Inventory 45Prepaid Margin 0.4% Accured Margin 6.8%
2007A 2008A 2009A 2010 2011 2012ASP $4.35 $5.93 $7.14 7.35 7.57 7.80
3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Volume 100 120 130 149.50 168.19 185.01 15.00% 12.50% 10.00%
Revenue $435 $711 $928 1,099.0 1,273.5 1,442.8
COGS (214) (284) (328) 388.26 449.89 509.73 Margin 49.1% 39.9% 35.3% 35.33% 35.33% 35.33%
Operating Expenses (103) (75) (87) 102.64 118.93 134.75 Margin 23.7% 10.6% 9.3% 9.34% 9.34% 9.34%
EBITDA $118 $352 $513 $608 $705 $798 D&A $10 $10 $10 $10 $10 $10 EBIT $108 $342 $503 $598 $695 $788
Interest Expense (77) (92) (93) (240.1) (223.7) (200.2)EBT $31 $251 $411 $358 $471 $588
Taxes 13 100 164 143 188 235 Net Income 19 150 246 215 283 353
Balance Sheet 2009A AdjustmePF 2009 2010 2011 2012Cash $159 ($149) $10 $10 $10 $10 A/R 96 $96 210.8 244.2 276.7 Inventory 50 $50 47.9 55.5 62.8 Prepaid Expenses 4 $4 $5 $6 $6
Total Current Assets $309 $160 $274 $315 $356
PPE 1,500 $1,500 ### ### ###Goodwill 0 ### $1,681 $1,681 $1,681 $1,681 Total Assets $1,809 $3,342 ### ### ###
A/P 25 $25 69.1 80.1 90.8 Accrued Liability 63 $63 75.1 87.0 98.5
Total Current Liabilities $89 $89 144.2 167.1 189.3
Debt 1,357 (1,357) $0 $0 $0 $0 Term ### $1,540 1,372.6 1,098.3 752.7 Sr. Sub $770.09 $770 770.1 770.1 770.1 Mezz $256.70 $257 $266.96 $277.64 $288.75 Total Liabilities $1,446 $2,655 $2,554 $2,313 $2,001
Shareholder's Equity 364 323 $686 $901 $1,184 $1,536 Total Liabilities & SE $1,809 $3,342 $3,455 $3,497 $3,537
Check $0 $0 $0 $0
SCF 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010 2011 2012Net Income 19 150 246 215 283 353 D&A $10 $10 $10 $10 $10 $10 PIK 0 0 0 10.3 10.7 11.1 Change in Current Assets (113.2) (41.8) (40.6)Change in Current Liab 55.7 22.9 22.2 CFO 29 160 256 178 284 356
Capex 8 10 11 10.0 10.0 10.0 CFI 8 10 11 10 10 10 Capex Margin 1.9% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
Cash Available for Debt Repayment 167.5 274.3 345.6
Debt Schedule 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010 2011 2012
Term LoanBeginning Balance ### ### ###Voluntary Amort. ### ### ###Ending Balance ### ### $752.75
Interest 8% $116.51 $98.84 $74.04
Senior SubBeginning Balance $770.09 $770.09 $770.09 Voluntary Amort. $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Ending Balance $770.09 $770.09 $770.09
Interest 12% $92.41 $92.41 $92.41
MezzBeginning Balance $256.70 $266.96 $277.64 PIK 4% 10.3 10.7 11.1 Ending Balance $266.96 $277.64 $288.75
Interest 8% 20.9 21.8 22.7
Total Interest 240.1 223.7 200.2
Sources UsesTerm ### Purchase of Equity ###Sr. Sub $770.09 Advisory Fees 15Mezz $256.70 Financing Fees 5Equity $686.21 Refinancing Debt 1,357 Cash $149 Total ###Total ###
2013 20148.03 8.27
3.00% 3.00%
198.88 208.83 7.50% 5.00%
1,597.6 1,727.8
564.39 610.39 35.33% 35.33%
149.20 161.36 9.34% 9.34%
$884 $956 $10 $10
$874 $946
(171.1) (133.4)$703 $813
281 325 422 488
2013 2014$10 $10
306.4 331.4 69.6 75.3
$7 $8 $393 $424
### ###$1,681 $1,681
### ###
100.5 108.7 109.1 118.0 209.6 226.7
$0 $0 336.3 0.0 770.1 620.9
$300.30 $312.31 $1,616 $1,160
$1,958 $2,446 $3,574 $3,606
$0 $0
2013 2014422 488 $10 $10
11.5 12.0 (37.1) (31.2)20.3 17.1 426 495
10.0 10.0 10 10
1.2% 1.2%
416.5 485.4
2013 2014
$752.75 $336.26 ### ###
$336.26 $0.00
$43.56 $13.45
$770.09 $770.09 $0.00 ###
$770.09 $620.91
$92.41 $83.46
$288.75 $300.30 11.5 12.0
$300.30 $312.31
23.6 24.5
171.1 133.4
Assumptions CapitalizationInterest Income 2% Current Share Price $30.00 Implied Entry Multi 6.3x FD Shares 50 Exit Multiple 6.0xTax Rate 40% % Premium 35.0%Amortization 5 years Purchase Price per 40.5Minimum Cash Bala 10 Total Purchase Pric 2025
Plus: Existing Debt 1,357 Less: Existing Cash ($159)Transaction TEV 3223.17
SourcesCash from B/S $149 Sponsor Equity $686 New Debt 2566.96Total Sources 3402.23
UsesPurchase Equity 2025Refinanced Debt 1,357 Advisory Fees 15Financing Fees 5Total Uses 3402.23
Purchase AccountingPurchase Equity $2,025 Less: Book Value (364)Excess Purchae Pr1661.31Plus: Fees 20Goodwill 1681.31
Multiple $ Cash Int PIK Interest RateTerm 3.0x 1540.18 8% 0% 8%Sr. Sub 1.5x 770.088 12% 0% 12%Mezz 0.5x 256.696 8% 4% 12%
2007A 2008A 2009A 2010EASP $4.35 $5.93 $7.14 $7.35% Growth 36.22% 20.40% 3.00%Volume 100 120 130 149.5% Growth 20.00% 8.33% 15.00%Revenue $435 $711 $928 $1,099
COGS (214) (284) (328) (388)
Gross Profit 221.29 427.59 600.04 710.75
% Margin 50.85% 60.11% 64.67% 64.67%
D&A (10) (10) (10) (10)SG&A (103) (75) (87) (103)% of Revenue 23.70% 10.57% 9.34% 9.34%
EBIT 108.17 342.40 503.39 598.11 % Margin 24.86% 48.13% 54.26% 54.42%
Interest Expense -239.933
EBT 358.18
Taxes -143.272% Tax Rate 40%
Net Income 214.91
Memo: EBITDA 118 352 513 608 Memo: Capex (10) (10) (10) (10)
Balance Sheet 2009A Debit Credit 2009PF 2010ECash $159 ($149) $10 10A/R 96 96 210.77 Inventory 50 50 47.8671Prepaid Expenses 4 4 $4.93
Total Current Assets $309 $160 $274
PPE 1,500 1,500 1,500 Goodwill 0 1681.31 1,681 1,681 Total Assets $1,809 $3,342 $3,455
A/P 25 25 69.1414Accrued Liability 63 63 75.0523
Total Current Liabilities $89 $89 $144
Existing Debt 1,357 (1,357) 0 0 New Debt 0 2566.96 2,567 2409.57Total Liabilities $1,446 $2,655 $2,554
Shareholder's Equity 364 (364) $686 686 901 Total Liabilities & SE $1,809 $3,342 $3,455
CHECK - - -
Net Working Capital 62 62 119
Days Receivable 37.8429 70
Days Payable 27.9947 65Days Inventory 55.6776 45Prepaid % of Sales 0.45% 0.45%Accrued % of COGS 19.33% 19.33%
SCF
2010ENet Income 214.91
Plus: D&A 10 Plus: Non-Cash Interest 10 Less: Capex (10)Plus: Decrease / (Increase) in NWC (58)
CADR 167.66
Debt Schedule
Term LoanBeg. Bal 1540.18Paydown (167.66)End Bal 1540.18 1372.52
Interest 8% 116.508
Sr. SubBeg. Bal 770.088Paydown 0.00 End Bal 770.088 770.088
Interest 12% 92.4106
MezzBeg. Bal 256.696PIK 4% 10.2678End Bal 256.696 266.964
Cash Interest 8% 20.9464
CashBeg. Bal 10Cash Build 0.00 End Bal $10 10
Interest Income 2% 0.2
Total Cash Interest Expense 229.865Non-Cash Interest Expense 10.2678Interest Income -0.2Net Interest Expense 239.933
Total Debt 2409.57
1
IRR 2010EEBITDA 608 Exit Multiple 6.0xTEV 3648.68Less: Debt -2409.57Plus: Cash 10Equity Value 1249.11
ROIC 1.8xIRR 82.03%
2014 ROICExit
Multiple Entry Premium7.0x 30.0%5.0x 6.3x5.5x 7.1 6.0x 7.9 6.5x 8.7 7.0x 9.4
2014 IRRExit
Multiple Entry Premium47.6% 30.0%
5.0x 44.6%5.5x 48.0%6.0x 51.1%6.5x 54.0%7.0x 56.7%
2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E$7.57 $7.80 $8.03 $8.273.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
168.188 185.006 198.882 208.82612.50% 10.00% 7.50% 5.00%$1,273 $1,443 $1,598 $1,728
(450) (510) (564) (610)
823.58 933.12 ### ###
64.67% 64.67% 64.67% 64.67%
(10) (10) (10) (10)(119) (135) (149) (161)
9.34% 9.34% 9.34% 9.34%
694.65 788.37 873.99 946.04 54.55% 54.64% 54.71% 54.75%
-223.498 -199.99 -170.846 -133.164
471.15 588.38 703.15 812.88
-188.461 -235.352 -281.26 -325.15140% 40% 40% 40%
282.69 353.03 421.89 487.73
705 798 884 956 (10) (10) (10) (10)
2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E10 10 10 10
244.23 276.71 306.39 331.36 55.466 62.843 69.5829 75.2539$5.71 $6.47 $7.16 $7.75 $315 $356 $393 $424
1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,681 1,681 1,681 1,681
$3,497 $3,537 $3,574 $3,606
80.1176 90.7732 100.509 108.786.9668 98.5334 109.101 117.993
$167 $189 $210 $227
0 0 0 0 2145.83 1811.2 1406.11 932.53$2,313 $2,001 $1,616 $1,159
1,184 1,537 1,959 2,446 $3,497 $3,537 $3,574 $3,606
- - - -
138 157 174 188
70 70 70 70
65 65 65 6545 45 45 45
0.45% 0.45% 0.45% 0.45%19.33% 19.33% 19.33% 19.33%
2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E282.69 353.03 421.89 487.73
10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12
(10) (10) (10) (10)(19) (18) (17) (14)
274.42 345.74 416.63 485.60
KILL1
1372.52 1098.1 752.359 335.727(274.42) (345.74) (416.63) (335.73)
1098.1 752.359 335.727 0
98.8245 74.0182 43.5234 13.4291
770.088 770.088 770.088 770.0880.00 0.00 0.00 (149.87)
770.088 770.088 770.088 620.22
92.4106 92.4106 92.4106 83.4185
266.964 277.643 288.748 300.29810.6786 11.1057 11.5499 12.0119277.643 288.748 300.298 312.31
21.7843 22.6556 23.5619 24.5043
10 10 10 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
10 10 10 10
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
213.019 189.084 159.496 121.35210.6786 11.1057 11.5499 12.0119
-0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2223.498 199.99 170.846 133.164
2145.83 1811.2 1406.11 932.53
2 3 4 5
2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E705 798 884 956 6.0x 6.0x 6.0x 6.0x
4227.91 4790.22 5303.97 5736.24-2145.83 -1811.2 -1406.11 -932.53
10 10 10 102092.08 2989.02 3907.86 4813.71
3.0x 4.4x 5.7x 7.0x74.61% 63.31% 54.48% 47.64%
2014 ROIC
Entry Premium32.5% 35.0% 37.5% 40.0% Premium Step 2.50%5.9x 5.6x 5.3x 5.1x Multiple Step 0.5x6.7 6.3 6.0 5.7
7.4 7.0 6.7 6.3 8.2 7.7 7.3 7.0 8.9 8.4 8.0 7.6
2014 IRR
Entry Premium32.5% 35.0% 37.5% 40.0% Premium Step 2.50%
42.8% 41.2% 39.8% 38.3% Multiple Step 0.5x46.2% 44.6% 43.1% 41.6%
49.3% 47.6% 46.1% 44.6%52.2% 50.5% 48.9% 47.4%54.8% 53.1% 51.5% 49.9%
Assumptions CapitalizationInterest Income 2% Current Share Price $30.00 Implied Entry Multiple 6.4x FD Shares 50 Exit Multiple 6.0xTax Rate 40% % Premium 35.0%Amortization 5 years Purchase Price per 41.25Minimum Cash Balance 10 Total Purchase Pric 2062.5
Plus: Existing Debt 1,357 Less: Existing Cash ($159)Transaction TEV 3260.67
SourcesCash from B/S $149 Sponsor Equity $724 New Debt 2566.96Total Sources 3439.73
UsesPurchase Equity 2062.5Refinanced Debt 1,357 Advisory Fees 15Financing Fees 5Total Uses 3439.73
Purchase AccountingPurchase Equity $2,025 Less: Book Value (364)Excess Purchae Price 1661.31Plus: Fees 20Excess to be Allocated 1681.31
Years to AmortizeNew PPE 15.0% 252.197 10New Intangibles 20.0% 336.263 10Goodwill Before Deferred Tax 65.0% 1092.85
Deferred Taxes 235.384
Goodwill 1328.24
Multiple $ Cash Int PIK Interest RateTerm 3.0x 1540.18 8% 0% 8%Sr. Sub 1.5x 770.088 12% 0% 12%Mezz 0.5x 256.696 8% 4% 12%
2007A 2008A 2009A 2010EASP $4.35 $5.93 $7.14 $7.35% Growth 36.22% 20.40% 3.00%
Volume 100 120 130 149.5% Growth 20.00% 8.33% 15.00%Revenue $435 $711 $928 $1,099
COGS (214) (284) (328) (388)% of Revenue 49.15% 39.89% 35.33% 35.33%
Gross Profit 221.29 427.59 600.04 710.75 % Margin 50.85% 60.11% 64.67% 64.67%
D&A (10) (10) (10) (10)Additional Dep. 0 0 0 (25)Additional Amort 0 0 0 (34)SG&A (103) (75) (87) (103)% of Revenue 23.70% 10.57% 9.34% 9.34%
EBIT 108.17 342.40 503.39 539.27 % Margin 24.86% 48.13% 54.26% 49.07%
Interest Expense -10.0678
EBT 529.20
Cash Taxes -235.218Deferred Taxes 23.5384Taxes -211.68% Tax Rate 40%
Net Income 317.52
Memo: EBITDA 118 352 513 549 Memo: Capex (10) (10) (10) (10)
Balance Sheet 2009A Debit Credit 2009PF 2010ECash $159 ($149) $10 10A/R 96 96 210.769Inventory 50 50 47.8671Prepaid Expenses 4 4 $4.93
Total Current Assets $309 $160 $274
PPE 1,500 1,500 1,500 New PPE 0 252.197 252 227 New Intangibles 0 336.263 336 303 Goodwill 0 1328.24 1,328 1,328 Total Assets $1,809 $3,577 $3,631
A/P 25 25 69.1414Accrued Liability 63 63 75.0523
Total Current Liabilities $89 $89 $144
DTL 0 235.384 235 212 Existing Debt 1,357 (1,357) 0 0 New Debt 0 2566.96 2,567 2271.65Total Liabilities $1,446 $2,891 $2,628
Shareholder's Equity 364 (364) $686 686 1,004 Total Liabilities & SE $1,809 $3,577 $3,631
CHECK - - -
Net Working Capital 62 62 119
Days Receivable 37.8429 70Days Payable 27.9947 65Days Inventory 55.6776 45Prepaid % of Sales 0.45% 0.45%Accrued % of COGS 19.33% 19.33%
SCF
2010ENet Income 317.52
Plus: D&A 10 Plus: New Dep 25 Plus: New Amort 34 Less: Deferred Taxes (24)Plus: Non-Cash Interest 10 Less: Capex (10)Plus: Decrease / (Increase) in NWC (58)
CADR 305.58
Debt Schedule
Term LoanBeg. Bal 1540.18Paydown (305.58)End Bal 1540.18 1234.6
Interest 8% 110.991
Sr. SubBeg. Bal 770.088Paydown 0.00 End Bal 770.088 770.088
Interest 12% 92.4106
MezzBeg. Bal 256.696PIK 4% 10.2678End Bal 256.696 266.964
Cash Interest 8% 20.9464
CashBeg. Bal 10Cash Build 0.00 End Bal $10 10
Interest Income 2% 0.2
Total Cash Interest Expense 224.348Non-Cash Interest Expense 10.2678Interest Income -0.2Net Interest Expense 10.0678
Total Debt 2271.65
1
IRR 2010EEBITDA 549 Exit Multiple 6.0xTEV 3295.6Less: Debt -2271.65Plus: Cash 10Equity Value 1033.95
ROIC 1.4xIRR 42.87%
2014 ROICExit
Multiple Entry Premium7.3x 30.0%5.0x 7.3x5.5x 7.3 6.0x 7.3 6.5x 7.3 7.0x 7.3
2014 IRRExit
Multiple Entry Premium48.8% 30.0%
5.0x 48.8%5.5x 48.8%
6.0x 48.8%6.5x 48.8%7.0x 48.8%
2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E$7.57 $7.80 $8.03 $8.273.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
168.188 185.006 198.882 208.82612.50% 10.00% 7.50% 5.00%$1,273 $1,443 $1,598 $1,728
(450) (510) (564) (610)35.33% 35.33% 35.33% 35.33%
823.58 933.12 ### ###64.67% 64.67% 64.67% 64.67%
(10) (10) (10) (10)(25) (25) (25) (25)(34) (34) (34) (34)
(119) (135) (149) (161)9.34% 9.34% 9.34% 9.34%
635.81 729.52 815.15 887.19 49.93% 50.56% 51.02% 51.35%
-10.4786 -10.9057 -11.3499 -11.8119
625.33 718.62 803.80 875.38
-273.669 -310.986 -345.058 -373.69123.5384 23.5384 23.5384 23.5384
-250.131 -287.447 -321.52 -350.15340% 40% 40% 40%
375.20 431.17 482.28 525.23
646 740 825 897 (10) (10) (10) (10)
2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E10 10 10 10
244.228 276.711 306.388 331.35855.466 62.843 69.5829 75.2539$5.71 $6.47 $7.16 $7.75 $315 $356 $393 $424
1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 202 177 151 126 269 235 202 168
1,328 1,328 1,328 1,328 $3,614 $3,596 $3,574 $3,547
80.1176 90.7732 100.509 108.786.9668 98.5334 109.101 117.993
$167 $189 $210 $227
188 165 141 118 0 0 0 0
1880.1 1432.01 931.235 384.84$2,235 $1,786 $1,282 $729
1,379 1,810 2,292 2,818 $3,614 $3,596 $3,574 $3,547
- - - -
138 157 174 188
70 70 70 7065 65 65 6545 45 45 45
0.45% 0.45% 0.45% 0.45%19.33% 19.33% 19.33% 19.33%
2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E375.20 431.17 482.28 525.23
10 10 10 10 25 25 25 25 34 34 34 34
(24) (24) (24) (24)11 11 12 12
(10) (10) (10) (10)(19) (18) (17) (14)
402.23 459.19 512.33 558.41
KILL1
1234.6 832.365 373.178 0(402.23) (459.19) (373.18) 0.00 832.365 373.178 0 0
82.6785 48.2217 14.9271 0
770.088 770.088 770.088 630.9370.00 0.00 (139.15) (558.41)
770.088 770.088 630.937 72.5301
92.4106 92.4106 84.0615 42.208
266.964 277.643 288.748 300.29810.6786 11.1057 11.5499 12.0119277.643 288.748 300.298 312.31
21.7843 22.6556 23.5619 24.5043
10 10 10 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
10 10 10 10
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
196.873 163.288 122.55 66.712410.6786 11.1057 11.5499 12.0119
-0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.210.4786 10.9057 11.3499 11.8119
1880.1 1432.01 931.235 384.84
2 3 4 5
2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E646 740 825 897 6.0x 6.0x 6.0x 6.0x
3874.83 4437.14 4950.89 5383.17-1880.1 -1432 -931.235 -384.84
10 10 10 102004.73 3015.13 4029.66 5008.33
3.3x 4.6x 5.9x 7.3x81.11% 66.89% 55.67% 48.82%
2014 ROIC
Entry Premium32.5% 35.0% 37.5% 37.5% Premium Step 2.50%7.3x 7.3x 7.3x 7.3x Multiple Step 0.5x7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3
7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3
2014 IRR
Entry Premium32.5% 35.0% 37.5% 37.5% Premium Step 2.50%
48.8% 48.8% 48.8% 48.8% Multiple Step 0.5x48.8% 48.8% 48.8% 48.8%
48.8% 48.8% 48.8% 48.8%48.8% 48.8% 48.8% 48.8%48.8% 48.8% 48.8% 48.8%
AssumptionsInterest Income 2%Implied Entry MultipleExit Multiple 6.0xTax Rate 40%Amortization 5 yearsMinimum Cash Balance 10 Advisory Fees 15Financing Fees 5
RatesTerm 3.0x 8%Sr. Sub 1.5x 12%Mezz 0.5x 8%/4%ASP Growth 3%D&A 10Days Receivable 70Days Payable 65Days Inventory 45
SourcesSponsor Equity 686.2065Acquisition Debt 2566.9615Cash From BS 149.062
3402.23
Multiple $ Cash PIKTerm 3.0x 1540.1769 8% 0%Sr. Sub 1.5x 770.08845 12% 0%Mezz 0.5x 256.69615 8% 4%
2007A 2008A 2009AASP $4.35 $5.93 $7.14 Growth %
Volume 100 120 130 Growth %
Revenue $435 $711 $928
COGS (214) (284) (328)
Gross Margins $221 $428 $600 Gross Margins % 50.9% 60.1% 64.7%
D&A -10 -10 -10
SG&A (103) (75) (87)Operating Margins % 23.7% 10.6% 9.3%
Operating Income $108.17 $342.40 $503.39 Operating Margins % 24.9% 48.1% 54.3%
Interest Expense (77) (92) (93)
EBT 31 251 411
TaxesTax Rate
Net Income
Memo: EBITDA 118 352 513 Memo: Capex (10) (10) (10)
Balance Sheet 2009A Debit Credit 2009PFCash $159 ($149) $10 A/R 96 $96 Inventory 50 $50 Prepaid Expenses 4 $4
Total Current Assets $309 $160
PPE 1,500 $1,500 Goodwill 0 1,681 $1,681 Total Assets $1,809 $3,342
A/P 25 $25 Accrued Liability 63 $63
Total Current Liabilities $89 $89
Existing Debt 1,357 (1,357) 2,567 $2,567 Total Liabilities $1,446 $2,655
Shareholder's Equity 364 (364) 686 $686 Total Liabilities & SE $1,809 $3,342
Check - -
Days Sales Outstanding 37.842876Days Payables Outstanding 27.994692Days Inventory Turnover 55.677589Prepaid as % of Sales 0.45%Accrued as % of COGS 19.33%
SCF
Net IncomePlus: D&APlus: Non-Cash InterestLess: Increases in CAPlus: Increases in CLCFO
Less: CapexCADR
Debt Schedule
Term LoanBoYPaydown RateEoY 8%
Interest
Senior Sub.BoYPaydown RateEoY 12%
Interest
Senior Sub.BoY PIKPIK 4%EoY
CashInterest 8%
CashBoYChangeEoY
CashInterest 2%
Total Cash Interest ExpenseTotal PIK Interest ExpenseTotal Interest IncomeNet Interest Expense
Total Debt
ExitEBITDAExit MultipleFVLess: DebtPlus: CashEquity Value
ROICIRR
ExitMultiple
7.0x5.0x5.5x6.0x6.5x7.0x
ExitMultiple
48%5.0x5.5x6.0x6.5x7.0x
Credit RatiosDebt/EBITDANet Debt/EBITDADebt/(EBITDA-Capex)Net Debt/(EBITDA-Capex)Debt/EquityDebt/Capitalization
Coverage RatiosEBITDA/Interest(EBITDA-Capex)/InterestEBIT/Interest(EBIT-Capex)/Interest
CapitalizationCurrent Share Price $30.00 FD Shares 50
% Premium 35.0%Acquistiion Share Price 40.5Purchase Price 2025Plus: DebtLess: CashFV 2025
Purchase AccountingPurchase Price 2025Book Value (364)Excess Purchase Price 1,661 Plus Fees 20Plus: Existing Goodwill 0 New Goodwill 1,681
UsesPurchase Equity 2025Refinance Debt 1,357 Advisory Fees 15Financing Fees 5Total Uses 3402.23
Rate8%
12%12%
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E7.3512233 7.57176 7.7989128 8.0328802 8.2738666
3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
149.5 168.1875 185.00625 198.88172 208.825815.00% 12.50% 10.00% 7.50% 5.00%
$1,099 $1,273 $1,443 $1,598 $1,728
($388.26) ($449.89) ($509.73) ($564.39) ($610.39)
$710.75 $823.58 $933.12 $1,033.20 $1,117.40 64.7% 64.7% 64.7% 64.7% 64.7%
-10 -10 -10 -10 -10
($102.64) ($118.93) ($134.75) ($149.20) ($161.36)9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3%
$598.11 $694.65 $788.37 $873.99 $946.04 54.4% 54.5% 54.6% 54.7% 54.8%
-239.9326 -223.4979 -199.9901 -170.8458 -133.1638
358 471 588 703 813
-143.2722 -188.4613 -235.3518 -281.2596 -325.150740% 40% 40% 40% 40%
215 283 353 422 488
608 705 798 884 956 (10) (10) (10) (10) (10)
2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E10 10 10 10 10
$210.77 $244.23 $276.71 $306.39 $331.36 $47.87 $55.47 $62.84 $69.58 $75.25
$4.93 $5.71 $6.47 $7.16 $7.75 $274 $315 $356 $393 $424
1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 $1,681 $1,681 $1,681 $1,681 $1,681 $3,455 $3,497 $3,537 $3,574 $3,606
$69.14 $80.12 $90.77 $100.51 $108.70 $75.05 $86.97 $98.53 $109.10 $117.99
$144 $167 $189 $210 $227
2410 2146 1811 1406 933$2,554 $2,313 $2,001 $1,616 $1,159
901 1184 1537 1959 2446$3,455 $3,497 $3,537 $3,574 $3,606
- - - - -
70 70 70 70 7065 65 65 65 6545 45 45 45 45
0.45% 0.45% 0.45% 0.45% 0.45%19.33% 19.33% 19.33% 19.33% 19.33%
2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E215 283 353 422 488
10 10 10 10 1010 11 11 12 12
(113) (42) (41) (37) (31)56 23 22 20 17
178 284 356 427 496
(10) (10) (10) (10) (10)168 274 346 417 486
CIRC1
1540.1769 1372.5163 1098.0957 752.35875 335.72717(168) (274) (346) (417) (336)
1372.5163 1098.0957 752.35875 335.72717 0
116.50773 98.824481 74.018179 43.523437 13.429087
770.08845 770.08845 770.08845 770.08845 770.088450 0 0 0 (150)
770.08845 770.08845 770.08845 770.08845 620.2199
92.410614 92.410614 92.410614 92.410614 83.418501
256.69615 266.964 277.64256 288.74826 300.2981910 11 11 12 12
266.964 277.64256 288.74826 300.29819 312.31012
20.946406 21.784262 22.655633 23.561858 24.504332
$10 10 10 10 100 0 0 0 0
10 10 10 10 10
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
229.86475 213.01936 189.08443 159.49591 121.3519210 11 11 12 12
-0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2239.93259 223.49792 199.99013 170.84584 133.16385
2409.5687 2145.8267 1811.1955 1406.1138 932.53001
1 2 3 4 5
2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E608 705 798 884 956 6.0x 6.0x 6.0x 6.0x 6.0x
3648.6791 4227.9069 4790.2185 5303.9694 5736.2429-2409.569 -2145.827 -1811.195 -1406.114 -932.53
10 10 10 10 101249.1103 2092.0801 2989.023 3907.8556 4813.7129
1.8203126 3.0487618 4.3558652 5.6948683 7.014962682.03% 74.61% 63.31% 54.48% 47.64%
2014 ROIC
Entry Premium30.0% 32.5% 35.0% 37.5% 40.0% Multiple 0.5
6.3x 5.9x 5.6x 5.3x 5.1x Premium 0.0257.1x 6.7x 6.3x 6.0x 5.7x7.9x 7.4x 7.0x 6.7x 6.3x8.7x 8.2x 7.7x 7.3x 7.0x9.4x 8.9x 8.4x 8.0x 7.6x
2014 IRR
Entry Premium30.0% 32.5% 35.0% 37.5% 40.0%
44.6% 42.8% 41.2% 39.8% 38.3%48.0% 46.2% 44.6% 43.1% 41.6%51.1% 49.3% 47.6% 46.1% 44.6%54.0% 52.2% 50.5% 48.9% 47.4%56.7% 54.8% 53.1% 51.5% 49.9%
3.96236893.9459246
AssumptionsInterest Income 2%Implied Entry MultipleExit Multiple 6.0xTax Rate 40%Amortization 5 yearsMinimum Cash Balance 10 Advisory Fees 15Financing Fees 5
RatesTerm 3.0x 8%Sr. Sub 1.5x 12%Mezz 0.5x 8%/4%ASP Growth 3%D&A 10Days Receivable 70Days Payable 65Days Inventory 45
SourcesSponsor Equity 686.2065New Debt 2566.9615Cash from B/S 149.062
3402.23
Multiple $ Cash PIK RateTerm 3.0x 1540.1769 8% 0 8%Sr. Sub 1.5x 770.08845 12% 0 12%Mezz 0.5x 256.69615 8% 4% 12%
2007A 2008A 2009AASP $4.35 $5.93 $7.14 % GrowthVolume 100 120 130 % Growth
Revenue $435 $711 $928
COGS (214) (284) (328)
Gross Margins 221.29 427.59 600.04 % Margin 50.9% 60.1% 64.7%
D&A -10 -10 -10SG&A (103) (75) (87)% Margin 23.7% 10.6% 9.3%
Operating Profit 108 342 503 % Margin 24.9% 48.1% 54.3%
Interest Expense (77) (92) (93)
EBT 31 251 411
TaxesTax Rate %
Net Income
EBITDA 118 352 513 Memo: Capex (10) (10) (10)
Balance Sheet 2009A Debit Credit 2009PFCash $159 ($149) $10 A/R 96 $96 Inventory 50 $50 Prepaid Expenses 4 $4
Total Current Assets $309 $160
PPE 1,500 $1,500 Goodwill 0 1,681 $1,681 Total Assets $1,809 $3,342
A/P 25 $25 Accrued Liability 63 $63
Total Current Liabilities $89 $89
Debt 1,357 (1,357) 2,567 $2,567 Total Liabilities $1,446 $2,655
Shareholder's Equity 364 (364) 686 $686 Total Liabilities & SE $1,809 $3,342
Check - -
A/R Days Outstanding 37.842876A/P Days Outstanding 27.994692Inv. Days Turnover 55.677589Prepaid Exp. % of Sales 0.45%Accrued Liab. % of Sales 19.33%
SCFNet Income
Plus: D&APlus: Non-cash interestLess: Inc. in CAPlus: Inc. in CLCFO
CapexCADR
Debt
Term LoanBoYPaydownEoY
Interest 8%
Sr. SubBoYPaydownEoY
Interest 12%
MezzBoYPIK 4%EoY
Interest 8%
CashBoYChangeEoY
Interest 2%
Total Cash Interest ExpenseTotal PIK Interest ExpenseTotal Interest IncomeTotal Interest Expense
Total Debt
ExitEBITDAExit MultipleFVLess: DebtPlus: CashEquity Value
ROICIRR
Exit Multiple
7.0x5.0x5.5x6.0x6.5x7.0x
Exit Multiple
48%5.0x5.5x6.0x6.5x7.0x
Leverage RatiosDebt/EBITDANet Debt/EBITDADebt/(EBITDA-CAPEX)Net Debt/(EBITDA-CAPEX)Debt/EquityDebt/Capitalization
Coverage RatiosEBITDA/Interest(EBITDA-Capex)/InterestEBIT/Interest
CapitalizationCurrent Share Price $30.00 FD Shares 50
% Premium 35.0%Acquisition Price 40.5Mkt. Cap. 2025
Plus: Debt 1,357 Less: Cash ($159)FV $3,223.17
Purchase AccountingPurchase Price 2025Less: Book Value (364)Excess Purchase Price 1,661 Plus: Fees 20Plus: Existing Goodwill 0 New Goodwill 1,681
UsesPurchase Equity 2025Refinance Debt 1,357 Advisory Fees 15Financing Fees 5Total Uses 3402.23
2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E7.3512233 7.57176 7.7989128 8.0328802 8.2738666
3% 3% 3% 3% 3%149.5 168.1875 185.00625 198.88172 208.8258
15.00% 12.50% 10.00% 7.50% 5.00%
$1,099 $1,273 $1,443 $1,598 $1,728
($388.26) ($449.89) ($509.73) ($564.39) ($610.39)
$710.75 $823.58 $933.12 $1,033.20 $1,117.40 64.7% 64.7% 64.7% 64.7% 64.7%
-10 -10 -10 -10 -10($102.64) ($118.93) ($134.75) ($149.20) ($161.36)
9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3%
$598.11 $694.65 $788.37 $873.99 $946.04 54.4% 54.5% 54.6% 54.7% 54.8%
-239.9326 -223.4979 -199.9901 -170.8458 -133.1638
358 471 588 703 813
-143.2722 -188.4613 -235.3518 -281.2596 -325.150740% 40% 40% 40% 40%
215 283 353 422 488
608 705 798 884 956 (10) (10) (10) (10) (10)
2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E10 10 10 10 10
$210.77 $244.23 $276.71 $306.39 $331.36 $47.87 $55.47 $62.84 $69.58 $75.25
$4.93 $5.71 $6.47 $7.16 $7.75 $274 $315 $356 $393 $424
1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 $1,681 $1,681 $1,681 $1,681 $1,681 $3,455 $3,497 $3,537 $3,574 $3,606
$69.14 $80.12 $90.77 $100.51 $108.70 $75.05 $86.97 $98.53 $109.10 $117.99
$144 $167 $189 $210 $227
2409.5687 2145.8267 1811.1955 1406.1138 932.53001$2,554 $2,313 $2,001 $1,616 $1,159
$901 $1,184 $1,537 $1,959 $2,446 $3,455 $3,497 $3,537 $3,574 $3,606
- - - - -
70 70 70 70 7065 65 65 65 6545 45 45 45 45
0.45% 0.45% 0.45% 0.45% 0.45%19.33% 19.33% 19.33% 19.33% 19.33%
2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E215 283 353 422 488
10 10 10 10 1010 11 11 12 12
(113) (42) (41) (37) (31)56 23 22 20 17
178 284 356 427 496
(10) (10) (10) (10) (10)168 274 346 417 486
CIRC KILL1
1540.1769 1372.5163 1098.0957 752.35875 335.72717(168) (274) (346) (417) (336)
1372.5163 1098.0957 752.35875 335.72717 0
116.50773 98.824481 74.018179 43.523437 13.429087
770.08845 770.08845 770.08845 770.08845 770.088450 0 0 0 (150)
770.08845 770.08845 770.08845 770.08845 620.2199
92.410614 92.410614 92.410614 92.410614 83.418501
256.69615 266.964 277.64256 288.74826 300.2981910 11 11 12 12
266.964 277.64256 288.74826 300.29819 312.31012
20.946406 21.784262 22.655633 23.561858 24.504332
$10 10 10 10 100 0 0 0 0
10 10 10 10 10
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
229.86475 213.01936 189.08443 159.49591 121.3519210 11 11 12 12 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0)
239.93259 223.49792 199.99013 170.84584 133.16385
2409.5687 2145.8267 1811.1955 1406.1138 932.53001
1 2 3 4 5
2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E608 705 798 884 956 6.0x 6.0x 6.0x 6.0x 6.0x
3648.6791 4227.9069 4790.2185 5303.9694 5736.2429-2409.569 -2145.827 -1811.195 -1406.114 -932.53
10 10 10 10 101249.1103 2092.0801 2989.023 3907.8556 4813.7129
1.8203126 3.0487618 4.3558652 5.6948683 7.014962682.0% 74.6% 63.3% 54.5% 47.6%
2014 ROICMultiple 0.5
Premium Paid Premium 0.02530.0% 32.5% 35.0% 37.5% 40.0%
6.3x 5.9x 5.6x 5.3x 5.1x7.1x 6.7x 6.3x 6.0x 5.7x7.9x 7.4x 7.0x 6.7x 6.3x8.7x 8.2x 7.7x 7.3x 7.0x9.4x 8.9x 8.4x 8.0x 7.6x
2014 IRRMultiple 0.5
Premium Paid Premium 0.02530.0% 32.5% 35.0% 37.5% 40.0%44.6% 42.8% 41.2% 39.8% 38.3%48.0% 46.2% 44.6% 43.1% 41.6%51.1% 49.3% 47.6% 46.1% 44.6%54.0% 52.2% 50.5% 48.9% 47.4%56.7% 54.8% 53.1% 51.5% 49.9%
2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E3.9623689 3.0452327 2.2686173 1.5906356 0.97540853.94592464.02861674.0118975
$2.67 $0.70
2.53451682.49283842.4928384
Assumptions CapitalizationInterest Income 2% Current Share PriceImplied Entry Multiple FD SharesExit Multiple 6.0xTax Rate 40% % PremiumAmortization 5 years Acquisition PriceMinimum Cash Bala 10 Mkt CapAdvisory Fees 15Financing Fees 5 Plus: Debt
Rates Less: CashTerm 3.0x 8% FVSr. Sub 1.5x 12%Mezz 0.5x 8%/4% Purchase AccountingASP Growth 3% Purchase PriceD&A 10 Less: Book ValueDays Receivable 70 Excess Purchase PriceDays Payable 65 Plus: FeesDays Inventory 45 Plus: Existing Goodwill
New Goodwill
Sources UsesSponsor Equity $686 Purchase EquityRefinance Debt 2,567 Refinance DebtCash from B/S 149 Advisory Fees
Financing Fees$3,402
Multiple $ Cash PIK RateTerm 3.0x $1,540 8% 0 8%Sr. Sub 1.5x $770 12% 0 12%Mezz 0.5x $257 8% 4% 12%
2007A 2008A 2009A 2010EASP $4.35 $5.93 $7.14 $7.35
3.00%
Volume 100 120 130 150 15.00%
Revenue $435 $711 $928 $1,099 % Growth 63.5% 30.4% 18.4%
COGS (214) (284) (328) (388)
Gross Profit $221 $428 $600 $711 % Margin 50.9% 60.1% 64.7% 64.7%
D&A (10) (10) (10) (10)SG&A (103) (75) (87) (103)% of Sales 23.7% 10.6% 9.3% 9.3%
Operating Income $108 $342 $503 $598 % Margin 24.9% 48.1% 54.3% 54.3%
Interest Expense (77) (92) (93) (240)
EBT $31 $251 $411 $358
Taxes (143)Tax Rate % 40%
Net Income $215
Memo: EBITDA 118.167 352.398 513.392 $608 Memo: Capex (10) (10) (10) (10)
Balance Sheet 2009A Debit Credit 2009PF 2010ECash $159 ($149) $10 $10 A/R 96 96 211 Inventory 50 50 48 Prepaid Expenses 4 4 5
Total Current Assets $309 $160 $274
PPE 1,500 $1,500 1,500 Goodwill 0 1,681 1,681 1,681 Total Assets $1,809 $3,342 $3,455
A/P 25 25 69 Accrued Liability 63 63 75
Total Current Liabilities $89 $89 $144
Debt 1,357 (1,357) 2,567 2,567 2,410 Total Liabilities $1,446 $2,655 $2,554
Shareholder's Equity 364 (364) 686 686 901 Total Liabilities & SE $1,809 $3,342 $3,455
Check - -
Days Receivable 38 70Days Payable 28 65Days Inventory 56 45
Prepaid % of Sales 0.45% 0.45%Prepaid % of Accrued Liab. 19.33% 19.33%
SCF 2010ENet Income $215 Plus: D&A 10Plus: Non-cash interest 10 Less: Inc. in CA (113)Plus: Inc. in CL 56 CFO $178
Less: Capex (10)CADR $168
Debt
Term LoanBoY $1,540 Paydown (168)EoY $1,373
RateInterest 8% $117
Sr. SubBoY $770 Paydown 0 EoY $770
RateInterest 12% $92
MezzBoY PIK $257 PIK 4% 10 EoY $267
CashInterest 8% $21
CashBoY $10 Paydown 0 EoY $10
RateInterest 2% $0
Total Cash Interest $230 Total PIK Interest 10 Interest Income (0)
Net Interest Expense $240
Total Debt $2,410
1
Exit 2010EEBITDA $608 Exit Multiple 6.0xFV $3,649 Less: Debt (2,410)Plus: Cash 10 Equity Value $1,249
ROIC 1.8xIRR 82.0%
2014 ROICExit
Multiple Premium7.0x 30.0%5.0x 6.3x5.5x 7.1x6.0x 7.9x6.5x 8.7x7.0x 9.4x
2014 IRRExit
Multiple Premium47.6% 30.0%
5.0x 44.6%5.5x 48.0%6.0x 51.1%6.5x 54.0%7.0x 56.7%
Leverage Multiples 2010EDebt/EBITDA 4.0xNet Debt/EBITDA 3.9xDebt/(EBITDA-Capex) 4.0xNet Debt/(EBITDA-Capex) 4.0xDebt/Equity 2.7xDebt/Capitalization 0.7x
Coverage RatiosEBITDA/Interest 2.5x(EBITDA-Capex)/Interest 2.5xEBIT/Interest 2.5x
$0 0 CapitalizationCurrent Share Price $30.00
50
% Premium 35.0%Acquisition Price $40.50
$2,025
$1,357 ($159)
$3,223
Purchase AccountingPurchase Price $2,025 Less: Book Value (364)Excess Purchase Price $1,661
20 Plus: Existing Goodwill 0 New Goodwill $1,681
Purchase Equity $2,025 Refinance Debt 1,357 Advisory Fees 15 Financing Fees 5
$3,402
2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E$7.57 $7.80 $8.03 $8.27 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
168 185 199 209 12.50% 10.00% 7.50% 5.00%
$1,273 $1,443 $1,598 $1,728 15.9% 13.3% 10.7% 8.2%
(450) (510) (564) (610)
$824 $933 $1,033 $1,117 64.7% 64.7% 64.7% 64.7%
(10) (10) (10) (10)(119) (135) (149) (161)9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3%
$695 $788 $874 $946 54.3% 54.3% 54.3% 54.3%
(223) (200) (171) (133)
$471 $588 $703 $813
(188) (235) (281) (325)40% 40% 40% 40%
$283 $353 $422 $488
$705 $798 $884 $956 (10) (10) (10) (10)
2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E$10 $10 $10 $10 244 277 306 331
55 63 70 75 6 6 7 8
$315 $356 $393 $424
1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,681 1,681 1,681 1,681
$3,497 $3,537 $3,574 $3,606
80 91 101 109 87 99 109 118
$167 $189 $210 $227
2,146 1,811 1,406 933 $2,313 $2,001 $1,616 $1,159
1,184 1,537 1,959 2,446 $3,497 $3,537 $3,574 $3,606
- - - -
70 70 70 7065 65 65 6545 45 45 45
0.45% 0.45% 0.45% 0.45%19.33% 19.33% 19.33% 19.33%
2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E$283 $353 $422 $488
10 10 10 1011 11 12 12
(42) (41) (37) (31)23 22 20 17
$284 $356 $427 $496
(10) (10) (10) (10)$274 $346 $417 $486
Circ Kill1
$1,373 $1,098 $752 $336 (274) (346) (417) (336)
$1,098 $752 $336 $0
$99 $74 $44 $13
$770 $770 $770 $770 0 0 0 (150)
$770 $770 $770 $620
$92 $92 $92 $83
$267 $278 $289 $300 11 11 12 12
$278 $289 $300 $312
$22 $23 $24 $25
$10 $10 $10 $10 0 0 0 0
$10 $10 $10 $10
$0 $0 $0 $0
$213 $189 $159 $121 11 11 12 12 (0) (0) (0) (0)
$223 $200 $171 $133
$2,146 $1,811 $1,406 $933
2 3 4 5
2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E$705 $798 $884 $956
6.0x 6.0x 6.0x 6.0x$4,228 $4,790 $5,304 $5,736 (2,146) (1,811) (1,406) (933)
10 10 10 10 $2,092 $2,989 $3,908 $4,814
3.0x 4.4x 5.7x 7.0x74.6% 63.3% 54.5% 47.6%
2014 ROIC
Premium Multiple 0.532.5% 35.0% 37.5% 40.0% Premium 0.025
5.9x 5.6x 5.3x 5.1x6.7x 6.3x 6.0x 5.7x7.4x 7.0x 6.7x 6.3x8.2x 7.7x 7.3x 7.0x8.9x 8.4x 8.0x 7.6x
2014 IRR
Premium32.5% 35.0% 37.5% 40.0%42.8% 41.2% 39.8% 38.3%46.2% 44.6% 43.1% 41.6%49.3% 47.6% 46.1% 44.6%52.2% 50.5% 48.9% 47.4%54.8% 53.1% 51.5% 49.9%
2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E3.0x 2.3x 1.6x 1.0x3.0x 2.3x 1.6x 1.0x3.1x 2.3x 1.6x 1.0x3.1x 2.3x 1.6x 1.0x1.8x 1.2x 0.7x 0.4x0.6x 0.5x 0.4x 0.3x
3.2x 4.0x 5.2x 7.2x3.1x 3.9x 5.1x 7.1x3.1x 3.9x 5.1x 7.1x
AssumptionsInterest Income 2%Implied Entry MultipleExit Multiple 6.0xTax Rate 40%Amortization 5 yearsMinimum Cash Bala 10 Advisory Fees 15Financing Fees 5
RatesTerm 3.0x 8%Sr. Sub 1.5x 12%Mezz 0.5x 8%/4%ASP Growth 3%D&A 10Days Receivable 70Days Payable 65Days Inventory 45
SourcesSponsor Equity 686.2065New Debt 2566.9615Cash from B/S 149.062
3402.23
Multiple $ Cash PIKTerm 3.0x 1540.1769 8% 0Sr. Sub 1.5x 770.08845 12% 0Mezz 0.5x 256.69615 8% 4%
2007A 2008A 2009AASP $4.35 $5.93 $7.14
Volume 100 120 130
Revenue $435 $711 $928 % Growth 63.5% 30.4%
COGS (214) (284) (328)
Gross Profit 221 428 600 % Margin 50.9% 60.1% 64.7%
D&A -10 -10 -10
SG&A (103) (75) (87)23.7% 10.6% 9.3%
Operating Profit 108 342 503 % Margin 24.9% 48.1% 54.3%
Interest Expense (77) (92) (93)
EBT 31 251 411
TaxesTax Rate %
Net Income
Memo: EBITDA 118 352 513 Memo: Capex (10) (10) (10)
Balance Sheet 2009A Debit Credit 2009PFCash $159 ($149) $10 A/R 96 $96 Inventory 50 $50 Prepaid Expenses 4 $4
Total Current Assets $309 $160
PPE 1,500 $1,500 Goodwill 0 1,681 $1,681 Total Assets $1,809 $3,342
A/P 25 $25 Accrued Liability 63 $63
Total Current Liabilities $89 $89
Debt 1,357 (1,357) 2,567 $2,567 Total Liabilities $1,446 $2,655
Shareholder's Equity 364 (364) 686 $686 Total Liabilities & SE $1,809 $3,342
Check - -
Days Receivable 38Days Payable 28Days Inventory 56Prepaid Exp. % of Sales 0.45%Accrued Liab. % of COGS 19.33%
SCF
Net IncomePlus: D&APlus: Non-cash InterestLess: Inc. in CA negativePlus: Inc. in CLCFO
Less: CapexCADR
Debt
Term LoanBoYPaydownEoY
RateInterest 8%
Sr. SubBoYPaydownEoY
RateInterest 12%
MezzBoY PIKPaydown 4%EoY
CashInterest 8%
CashBoYPaydownEoY
RateInterest 2%
Total Cash InterestTotal PIK InterestInterest IncomeNet Interest Expense
Total Debt
Exit
EBITDAExit MultipleFVLess: DebtPlus: CashEquity Value
ROICIRR
ExitMultiple
7.0x5
5.56
6.57
ExitMultiple
47.6%5
5.56
6.57
2007A 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012EASP $4.35 $5.93 $7.14 7.3512233 7.57176 7.7989128
3.00% 3.00% 3.00%Volume 100 120 130 149.5 168.1875 185.00625
15.00% 12.50% 10.00%
Revenue $435 $711 $928 $1,099 $1,273 $1,443
Change $276 $216 $171 $174 $169
Volume 1 $189.16 $157.19 $32.01 $37.09 $42.02 ASP 1 $87.03 $59.28 $139.17 $137.38 $127.35
$276.19 $216.47 $171.18 $174.47 $169.37
Volume 1 68.5% 72.6% 18.7% 21.3% 24.8%ASP 1 31.5% 27.4% 81.3% 78.7% 75.2%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Volume 2 $157.63 $145.10 $27.83 $32.97 $38.20 ASP 2 $118.56 $71.37 $143.35 $141.50 $131.17
$276.19 $216.47 $171.18 $174.47 $169.37
Volume 2 57.1% 67.0% 16.3% 18.9% 22.6%ASP 2 42.9% 33.0% 83.7% 81.1% 77.4%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Avg. Volume 62.8% 69.8% 17.5% 20.1% 23.7%Avg. ASP 37.2% 30.2% 82.5% 79.9% 76.3%
Leverage RatiosDebt/EBITDANet Debt/EBITDADebt/(EBITDA-Capex)Net Debt/(EBITDA-Capex)Debt/EquityDebt/Capitalization
Coverage RatiosEBITDA/Interest(EBITDA-Capex)/InterestEBIT/Interest
47 mins
CapitalizationCurrent Share Price $30.00 FD Shares 50
% Premium 35.0%Acquisition Price 40.5Market Cap. 2025Plus: Debt 1,357 Less: Cash ($159)FV 3223.168
Purchase AccountingPurchase Price 2025Less: Book Value (364)Excess Purchase Price 1661.314Plus: Fees 20Plus: Existing Goodwill 0 New Goodwill 1681.314
UsesPurchase Equity 2025Refinance Debt 1,357 Advisory Fees 15Financing Fees 5Total Uses 3402.23
Rate8%
12%12%
2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E7.3512233 7.57176 7.7989128 8.0328802 8.2738666
3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%149.5 168.1875 185.00625 198.88172 208.8258
15.00% 12.50% 10.00% 7.50% 5.00%
$1,099 $1,273 $1,443 $1,598 $1,728 18.4% 15.9% 13.3% 10.7% 8.2%
($388.26) ($449.89) ($509.73) ($564.39) ($610.39)
$710.75 $823.58 $933.12 $1,033.20 $1,117.40 64.7% 64.7% 64.7% 64.7% 64.7%
-10 -10 -10 -10 -10
($102.64) ($118.93) ($134.75) ($149.20) ($161.36)9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3%
598 695 788 874 946 54.3% 54.3% 54.3% 54.3% 54.3%
-239.9326 -223.4979 -199.9901 -170.8458 -133.1638
358 471 588 703 813
-143.2722 -188.4613 -235.3518 -281.2596 -325.150740% 40% 40% 40% 40%
215 283 353 422 488
608 705 798 884 956 (10) (10) (10) (10) (10)
2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E10 10 10 10 10
$210.77 $244.23 $276.71 $306.39 $331.36 $47.87 $55.47 $62.84 $69.58 $75.25
$4.93 $5.71 $6.47 $7.16 $7.75 $274 $315 $356 $393 $424
1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 $1,681 $1,681 $1,681 $1,681 $1,681 $3,455 $3,497 $3,537 $3,574 $3,606
$69.14 $80.12 $90.77 $100.51 $108.70 $75.05 $86.97 $98.53 $109.10 $117.99
$144 $167 $189 $210 $227
2409.5687 2145.8267 1811.1955 1406.1138 932.53001$2,554 $2,313 $2,001 $1,616 $1,159
$901 $1,184 $1,537 $1,959 $2,446 $3,455 $3,497 $3,537 $3,574 $3,606
- - - - -
70 70 70 70 7065 65 65 65 6545 45 45 45 45
0.45% 0.45% 0.45% 0.45% 0.45%19.33% 19.33% 19.33% 19.33% 19.33%
2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E
214.91 282.69 353.03 421.89 487.73 10 10 10 10 10
10 11 11 12 12 ($113.21) ($41.84) ($40.62) ($37.11) ($31.23)
$55.69 $22.89 $22.22 $20.30 $17.08 178 284 356 427 496
(10) (10) (10) (10) (10)167.66 274.42 345.74 416.63 485.60
CIRC KILL1
1540.1769 1372.5163 1098.0957 752.35875 335.72717(168) (274) (346) (417) (336)
1372.5163 1098.0957 752.35875 335.72717 0
116.50773 98.824481 74.018179 43.523437 13.429087
770.08845 770.08845 770.08845 770.08845 770.088450 0 0 0 (150)
770.08845 770.08845 770.08845 770.08845 620.2199
92.410614 92.410614 92.410614 92.410614 83.418501
256.69615 266.964 277.64256 288.74826 300.2981910 11 11 12 12
266.964 277.64256 288.74826 300.29819 312.31012
20.946406 21.784262 22.655633 23.561858 24.504332
$10 10 10 10 100 0 0 0 0
10 10 10 10 10
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
229.86475 213.01936 189.08443 159.49591 121.3519210 11 11 12 12
-0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2239.93259 223.49792 199.99013 170.84584 133.16385
2409.5687 2145.8267 1811.1955 1406.1138 932.53001
1 2 3 4 5
2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E
608 705 798 884 956 6.0x 6.0x 6.0x 6.0x 6.0x
3648.6791 4227.9069 4790.2185 5303.9694 5736.2429-2409.569 -2145.827 -1811.195 -1406.114 -932.53
10 10 10 10 101249.1103 2092.0801 2989.023 3907.8556 4813.7129
1.8x 3.0x 4.4x 5.7x 7.0x82.03% 74.61% 63.31% 54.48% 47.64%
2014 ROIC
Purchase Premium Multiple Step 0.5x30.0% 32.5% 35.0% 37.5% 40.0% Premium Step 2.5%
7.9x 7.4x 7.0x 6.7x 6.3x7.9x 7.4x 7.0x 6.7x 6.3x7.9x 7.4x 7.0x 6.7x 6.3x7.9x 7.4x 7.0x 6.7x 6.3x7.9x 7.4x 7.0x 6.7x 6.3x
2014 IRR
Purchase Premium30.0% 32.5% 35.0% 37.5% 40.0%51.1% 49.3% 47.6% 46.1% 44.6%51.1% 49.3% 47.6% 46.1% 44.6%51.1% 49.3% 47.6% 46.1% 44.6%51.1% 49.3% 47.6% 46.1% 44.6%51.1% 49.3% 47.6% 46.1% 44.6%
2013E 2014E8.0328802 8.2738666
3.00% 3.00%198.88172 208.8258
7.50% 5.00%
$1,598 $1,728
$155 $130
$46.53 $50.32 $108.21 $79.88 $154.75 $130.20
30.1% 38.7%69.9% 61.3%
100.0% 100.0%
$43.29 $47.93 $111.46 $82.28 $154.75 $130.20
28.0% 36.8%72.0% 63.2%
100.0% 100.0%
29.0% 37.7%71.0% 62.3%
2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E4.0x 3.0x 2.3x 1.6x 1.0x3.9x 3.0x 2.3x 1.6x 1.0x4.0x 3.1x 2.3x 1.6x 1.0x4.0x 3.1x 2.3x 1.6x 1.0x2.7x 1.8x 1.2x 0.7x 0.4x0.7x 0.6x 0.5x 0.4x 0.3x
2.5x 3.2x 4.0x 5.2x 7.2x2.5x 3.1x 3.9x 5.1x 7.1x2.5x 3.1x 3.9x 5.1x 7.1x
Assumptions CapitalizationInterest Income 2% Current Share PriceImplied Entry Multiple FD SharesExit Multiple 6.0xTax Rate 40% % PremiumAmortization 5 years Acquisition PriceMinimum Cash Bala 10 Mkt. CapAdvisory Fees 15 Plus: DebtFinancing Fees 5 Less: Cash
Rates FVTerm 3.0x 8%Sr. Sub 1.5x 12% FV/EBITDAMezz 0.5x 8%/4% Debt/EBITDAASP Growth 3%D&A 10 GoodwillDays Receivable 70 Purchase PriceDays Payable 65 Less: Book ValueDays Inventory 45 Excess Purchase Price
Plus: FeesPlus: Existing GoodwillNew Goodwill
Sources UsesSponsor Equity 686.207 Purchase EquityNew Debt 2566.96 Refinance DebtCash from B/S 149.062 Advisory Fees
Financing FeesTotal Sources 3402.23
Multiple $ Cash PIK RateTerm 3.0x 1540.18 8% 0 8%Sr. Sub 1.5x 770.088 12% 0 12%Mezz 0.5x 256.696 8% 4% 12%
2007A 2008A 2009A 2010EASP $4.35 $5.93 $7.14 7.3512233% Growth 3%Volume 100 120 130 149.5% Growth 15.00%
Revenue $435 $711 $928 $1,099 % Growth 63.5% 30.4% 18.4%
COGS (214) (284) (328) ($388.26)
Gross Profit 221.29 427.59 600.04 $710.75 Gross Margin % 50.9% 60.1% 64.7% 64.7%
D&A -10 -10 -10 -10SG&A (103) (75) (87) ($102.64)% of Sales 23.7% 10.6% 9.3% 9.3%
EBIT 108.167 342.398 503.392 598.113 Operating Margin 24.9% 48.1% 54.3% 54.3%
Interest Expense (77) (92) (93) ($240)
EBT 31.435 250.631 410.715 358.181
Taxes -143.2722Tax Rate% 40%
Net Income 214.908
Memo: EBITDA 118.167 352.398 513.392 608.113 Memo: Capex (10) (10) (10) (10)
Balance Sheet 2009A Debit Credit 2009PF 2010ECash $159 ($149) $10 $10 A/R 96 $96 $210.77 Inventory 50 $50 $47.87 Prepaid Expenses 4 $4 $4.93
Total Current Assets $309 $160 $274
PPE 1,500 $1,500 1,500 Goodwill 0 1,681 $1,681 $1,681 Total Assets $1,809 $3,342 $3,455
A/P 25 $25 $69.14 Accrued Liability 63 $63 $75.05
Total Current Liabilities $89 $89 $144
Debt 1,357 (1,357) 2,567 $2,567 $2,410 Total Liabilities $1,446 $2,655 $2,554
Shareholder's Equity 364 (364) 686 $686 $901 Total Liabilities & SE $1,809 $3,342 $3,455
Check - -
DriversDays Receivable 38 70Days Payable 28 65Days Inventory 56 45Prepaid Exp. % of Sales 0.4% 0.4%Accrued Liab % of COGS 19.3% 19.3%
SCFNet Income 214.908 Plus: D&A 10Plus: Non-Cash Int. Expense 10 Less: Inc. in CA neg ($113.21)Plus: Inc. in CL 55.69 CFO 177.661
Less: Capex (10)CADR 167.661
Debt
Term LoanBoY $1,540 Paydown (168)EoY $1,373
RateInterest 8% $117
Sr SubBoY $770 Paydown 0 EoY $770
RateInterest 12% $92
MezzBoY PIK $257 Paydown 4% 10 EoY $267
CashInterest 8% $21
CashBoY $10 Paydown 0 EoY $10
Interest 2% $0
Total Cash Interest Expense $230 Total PIK Interest Expense 10 Interest Income ($0)Net Interest Expense $240
Total Debt $2,410
1
Exit 2010EEBITDA 608.113 Exit Multiple 6.0xFV 3648.6791Less: Debt ($2,410)Plus: Cash $10 Equity Value 1249.1103
ROIC 1.8xIRR 82.0%
2014 ROICExitMultiple Entry Premium
7.0x 30.0%5.0x 6.3x5.5x 7.1x6.0x 7.9x6.5x 8.7x7.0x 9.4x
2014 IRRExitMultiple Entry Premium
47.6% 30.0%5.0x 44.6%5.5x 48.0%6.0x 51.1%6.5x 54.0%7.0x 56.7%
Leverage Ratios 2010EDebt/EBITDA 4.0xNet Debt/EBITDA 3.9xDebt/(EBITDA-Capex) 4.0xNet Debt/(EBITDA-Capex) 4.0xDebt/Equity 2.7xDebt/Capitalization 0.7x
Coverage RatiosEBITDA/Interest 2.5x(EBITDA-Capex)/Interest 2.5xEBIT/Interest 2.5x
2007A 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
ASP $4.35 $5.93 $7.14 7.3512233 7.57176 7.7989128 8.0328802% Growth 3% 3% 3% 3%Volume 100 120 130 149.5 168.1875 185.00625 198.88172% Growth 15.00% 12.50% 10.00% 7.50%
Revenue $435 $711 $928 $1,099 $1,273 $1,443 $1,598 Change $276 $216 $171 $174 $169 $155
ASP 1 189.161 157.1869 32.009938 37.091516 42.024688 46.531835Volume 1 $87.03 $59.28 $139.17 $137.38 $127.35 $108.21
276.194 216.4667 171.18358 174.4675 169.37223 154.74541
ASP 1 68.5% 72.6% 18.7% 21.3% 24.8% 30.1%Volume 1 31.5% 27.4% 81.3% 78.7% 75.2% 69.9%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
ASP 2 157.634 145.0956 27.834729 32.970237 38.204262 43.285428Volume 2 $118.56 $71.37 $143.35 $141.50 $131.17 $111.46
276.194 216.4667 171.18358 174.4675 169.37223 154.74541
ASP 2 57.1% 67.0% 16.3% 18.9% 22.6% 28.0%Volume 2 42.9% 33.0% 83.7% 81.1% 77.4% 72.0%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Avg. ASP 62.8% 69.8% 17.5% 20.1% 23.7% 29.0%Avg. Volume 37.2% 30.2% 82.5% 79.9% 76.3% 71.0%
CapitalizationCurrent Share Price $30.00
50
% Premium 35.0%Acquisition Price 40.5
20251,357 ($159)
3223.168
FV/EBITDA 6.3xDebt/EBITDA 2.6x
Purchase Price 2025Less: Book Value (364)Excess Purchase Price 1661.314
20Plus: Existing Goodwill 0 New Goodwill 1681.314
Purchase Equity 2025Refinance Debt 1,357 Advisory Fees 15Financing Fees 5
3402.23
2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E7.57176 7.7989128 8.0328802 8.2738666
3% 3% 3% 3%168.1875 185.00625 198.88172 208.8258
12.50% 10.00% 7.50% 5.00%
$1,273 $1,443 $1,598 $1,728 15.9% 13.3% 10.7% 8.2%
($449.89) ($509.73) ($564.39) ($610.39)
$823.58 $933.12 $1,033.20 $1,117.40 64.7% 64.7% 64.7% 64.7%
-10 -10 -10 -10($118.93) ($134.75) ($149.20) ($161.36)
9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3%
694.651 788.370 873.995 946.040 54.3% 54.3% 54.3% 54.3%
($223) ($200) ($171) ($133)
471.153 588.380 703.149 812.877
-188.4613 -235.3518 -281.2596 -325.150740% 40% 40% 40%
282.692 353.028 421.889 487.726
704.651 798.370 883.995 956.040 (10) (10) (10) (10)
2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E$10 $10 $10 $10
$244.23 $276.71 $306.39 $331.36 $55.47 $62.84 $69.58 $75.25
$5.71 $6.47 $7.16 $7.75 $315 $356 $393 $424
1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 $1,681 $1,681 $1,681 $1,681 $3,497 $3,537 $3,574 $3,606
$80.12 $90.77 $100.51 $108.70 $86.97 $98.53 $109.10 $117.99
$167 $189 $210 $227
$2,146 $1,811 $1,406 $933 $2,313 $2,001 $1,616 $1,159
$1,184 $1,537 $1,959 $2,446 $3,497 $3,537 $3,574 $3,606
- - - -
70 70 70 7065 65 65 6545 45 45 45
0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%19.3% 19.3% 19.3% 19.3%
282.692 353.028 421.889 487.726 10 10 10 10
11 11 12 12 ($41.84) ($40.62) ($37.11) ($31.23)
22.89 22.22 20.30 17.08 284.421 355.737 426.632 495.596
(10) (10) (10) (10)274.421 345.737 416.632 485.596
CIRC KILL1
$1,373 $1,098 $752 $336 (274) (346) (417) (336)
$1,098 $752 $336 $0
$99 $74 $44 $13
$770 $770 $770 $770 0 0 0 (150)
$770 $770 $770 $620
$92 $92 $92 $83
$267 $278 $289 $300 11 11 12 12
$278 $289 $300 $312
$22 $23 $24 $25
$10 $10 $10 $10 0 0 0 0
$10 $10 $10 $10
$0 $0 $0 $0
$213 $189 $159 $121 11 11 12 12
($0) ($0) ($0) ($0)$223 $200 $171 $133
$2,146 $1,811 $1,406 $933
2 3 4 5
2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E704.651 798.370 883.995 956.040
6.0x 6.0x 6.0x 6.0x4227.9069 4790.2185 5303.9694 5736.2429
($2,146) ($1,811) ($1,406) ($933)$10 $10 $10 $10
2092.0801 2989.023 3907.8556 4813.7129
3.0x 4.4x 5.7x 7.0x74.6% 63.3% 54.5% 47.6%
2014 ROIC
Entry Premium Multiple Step 0.532.5% 35.0% 37.5% 40.0% Premium Step 0.025
5.9x 5.6x 5.3x 5.1x6.7x 6.3x 6.0x 5.7x7.4x 7.0x 6.7x 6.3x8.2x 7.7x 7.3x 7.0x8.9x 8.4x 8.0x 7.6x
2014 IRR
Entry Premium32.5% 35.0% 37.5% 40.0%42.8% 41.2% 39.8% 38.3%46.2% 44.6% 43.1% 41.6%49.3% 47.6% 46.1% 44.6%52.2% 50.5% 48.9% 47.4%54.8% 53.1% 51.5% 49.9%
2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E3.0x 2.3x 1.6x 1.0x3.0x 2.3x 1.6x 1.0x3.1x 2.3x 1.6x 1.0x3.1x 2.3x 1.6x 1.0x1.8x 1.2x 0.7x 0.4x0.6x 0.5x 0.4x 0.3x
3.2x 4.0x 5.2x 7.2x3.1x 3.9x 5.1x 7.1x3.1x 3.9x 5.1x 7.1x
2014E
8.27386663%
208.82585.00%
$1,728 $130
50.32418$79.88
130.20383
38.7%61.3%
100.0%
47.927791$82.28
130.20383
36.8%63.2%
100.0%
37.7%62.3%