8/10/2019 Lawrence Klein

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Lawrence Klein

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Lawrence Klein

BornSeptember 14, 1920

Omaha, ebra!ka, "#S#

DiedOctober 20, 201$ %a&ed 9$'

(ladwyne, )enn!yl*ania, "#S#Nationality "nited State!

Institution

"ni*# of )enn!yl*ania"ni*er!ity of O+ford

"ni*er!ity of ichi&an

-./owle! ommi!!ion

Fieldacroeconomic!

.conometric!

School/tradition eoKeyne!ian economic!

Alma mater

3%)h##'

" -erkeley%-#5#'

Influences )a6l Sam6el!on

Influenced .# /oy Weintra6b

Contributionsacroeconometric foreca!tin&

model!

Awards

7ohn -ate! lark edal%1989'

obel emorial )rie in .conomicScience!%19:0'

nformationat .5S;/e).c

Lawrence Robert Klein%September 14, 1920 < October 20, 201$' wa! an 5merican economi!t# For hi! work increatin& comp6ter model!to foreca!t economic trend! in the field of econometric!in the epartment of .conomic

at the "ni*er!ity of )enn!yl*ania,he wa! awarded theobel emorial )rie in .conomic Science!in 19:0

!pecifically =for the creation of econometric model! and their application to the analy!i! of economic fl6ct6ation!and economic policie!#= 6e to hi! effort!, !6ch model! ha*e become wide!pread amon& economi!t!# >ar*ard

"ni*er!ityprofe!!or artin Feld!teintold the Wall Street 7o6rnalthat Klein =wa! the fir!t to create the !tati!tical

model! that embodied Keyne!ianeconomic!,= tool! !till 6!ed by the Federal /e!er*e -ankand other central bank?1@

Contents

1 Life and careero 1#1 .arly modelb6ildin&

o 1#2 carthyi!m and mo*e to .n&land

o 1#$ /et6rn to the "#S#

o 1#4 -rookin&!SS/ )roAect

o 1#8 Wharton

o 1#B Later career

2 )6blication!

$ See al!o

4 /eference!

8 F6rther readin&

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omaha,_Nebraskahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gladwyne,_Pennsylvaniahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Stateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Pennsylvaniahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Oxfordhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Michiganhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBERhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cowles_Commissionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macroeconomicshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Econometricshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neo-Keynesian_economicshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massachusetts_Institute_of_Technologyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_California,_Berkeleyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Samuelsonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E._Roy_Weintraubhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Bates_Clark_Medalhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Bates_Clark_Medalhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Memorial_Prize_in_Economic_Scienceshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Memorial_Prize_in_Economic_Scienceshttp://ideas.repec.org/e/pkl8.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Research_Papers_in_Economicshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economicshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_modelhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Econometricshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Econometricshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Pennsylvaniahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Pennsylvaniahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Memorial_Prize_in_Economic_Scienceshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Memorial_Prize_in_Economic_Scienceshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economisthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_Universityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_Universityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Feldsteinhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Feldsteinhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Journalhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Journalhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Maynard_Keyneshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bankhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#cite_note-1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#Life_and_careerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#Early_model-buildinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#McCarthyism_and_move_to_Englandhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#Return_to_the_U.S.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#Brookings-SSRC_Projecthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#Whartonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#Later_careerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#Publicationshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#See_alsohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#Referenceshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#Further_readinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omaha,_Nebraskahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gladwyne,_Pennsylvaniahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Stateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Pennsylvaniahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Oxfordhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Michiganhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBERhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cowles_Commissionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macroeconomicshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Econometricshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neo-Keynesian_economicshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massachusetts_Institute_of_Technologyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_California,_Berkeleyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Samuelsonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E._Roy_Weintraubhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Bates_Clark_Medalhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Memorial_Prize_in_Economic_Scienceshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Memorial_Prize_in_Economic_Scienceshttp://ideas.repec.org/e/pkl8.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Research_Papers_in_Economicshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economicshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_modelhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Econometricshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Pennsylvaniahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Memorial_Prize_in_Economic_Scienceshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economisthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_Universityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_Universityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Feldsteinhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Journalhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Maynard_Keyneshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bankhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#cite_note-1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#Life_and_careerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#Early_model-buildinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#McCarthyism_and_move_to_Englandhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#Return_to_the_U.S.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#Brookings-SSRC_Projecthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#Whartonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#Later_careerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#Publicationshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#See_alsohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#Referenceshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#Further_reading

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B .+ternal link!

Life and career

Klein wa! born in Omaha, ebra!ka, the !on of -lanche %nCe onheit' and Leo -yron Klein#?2@>e went on to&rad6ate from Lo! 5n&ele! ity olle&e, where he learnedcalc6l6!D the "ni*er!ity of alifornia, -erkeley, where

he be&an hi! comp6ter modelin&and earned a -#5#in .conomic! in 1942D he earned hi! )h##in .conomic! at th

a!!ach6!ett! n!tit6te of 3echnolo&y%3' in 1944#

arly model!buildin"

Klein then mo*ed to the owle! ommi!!ion for /e!earch in .conomic!, which wa! then at the"ni*er!ity of

hica&o, now the owle! Fo6ndation# 3here he b6ilt a model of the "nited State! economyto foreca!t thede*elopment of b6!ine!! fl6ct6ation! and to !t6dy the effect! of &o*ernment economicpolitical policy# 5fter Wor

War Klein 6!ed hi! model to correctly predict, a&ain!t the pre*ailin& e+pectation, that there wo6ld be an

economic 6pt6rn rather than a depre!!iond6e to increa!in& con!6mer demand from ret6rnin& !er*icemen# ?$@Similarly, he correctly predicted a mild rece!!ionat the end of the Korean War#

Klein briefly Aoined the omm6ni!t )arty d6rin& the 1940!, which led to tro6ble year! later#

5t the "ni*er!ity of ichi&an, Klein de*eloped enhanced macroeconomic model!,in partic6lar the famo6!Klein

(oldber&er modelwith 5rth6r (oldber&er, which wa! ba!ed on fo6ndation! laid by7an 3inber&enof the

etherland!, later winner of the fir!t economic! prie in 19B9# Klein differed from 3inber&en in 6!in& analternati*e economic theoryand a different !tati!ticaltechniE6e#

#cCarthyism and mo$e to n"land

n 1984, Klein! brief member!hip in the omm6ni!t )arty wa! made p6blic?4@and he wa! denied ten6re at the"ni*er!ity of ichi&an, in the wake of the carthy era#Klein mo*ed to the"ni*er!ity of O+ford, and de*elope

an economic model of the "nited Kin&domknown a! the O+ford modelwith Sir 7ame! -all# 5dditionally, at the

n!tit6te of Stati!tic! Klein a!!i!ted with the creation of the -riti!hSa*in&! S6r*ey!, ba!ed 6pon the ichi&anS6r*ey!#

Return to the %&S&

n 198: Klein ret6rned to the "#S# to Aoin the epartment of .conomic! at the "ni*er!ity of )enn!yl*ania# n 198he wa! awarded the 7ohn -ate! lark edal,one of the two mo!t pre!ti&io6! award! in the field of economic!# n

19B: he became the -enAamin Franklin)rofe!!or of .conomic! and Finance at )enn#

Broo'in"s!SSRC (ro)ect

n the early 19B0! Klein became the leader of the maAor =-rookin&!SS/ )roAect= to con!tr6ct a detailed

econometric modelto foreca!t the !hortterm de*elopment of the "#S# economy#

*harton

Later in the B0!, Klein con!tr6cted the Wharton .conometric Foreca!tin& odel# 3hi! model, con!iderably !mall

than the -rookin&! model, achie*ed a *ery &ood rep6tation for it! analy!i! of b6!ine!! condition!, 6!ed to foreca!

fl6ct6ation! incl6din& national prod6ct, e+port!, in*e!tment!, and con!6mption, and to !t6dy the effect on them ofchan&e! in ta+ation, p6blic e+pendit6re, oil price, etc#

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#External_linkshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omaha,_Nebraskahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#cite_note-2http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#cite_note-2http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Angeles_City_Collegehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calculushttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calculushttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_California,_Berkeleyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_modelhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bachelor_of_Artshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bachelor_of_Artshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ph.D.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ph.D.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massachusetts_Institute_of_Technologyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massachusetts_Institute_of_Technologyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cowles_Commission_for_Research_in_Economicshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Chicagohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Chicagohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Chicagohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cowles_Foundationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_economyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_IIhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_IIhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depression_(economics)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#cite_note-3http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#cite_note-3http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recessionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Warhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Michiganhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macroeconomic_modelhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macroeconomic_modelhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Klein%E2%80%93Goldberger_model&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Klein%E2%80%93Goldberger_model&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Klein%E2%80%93Goldberger_model&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_Goldbergerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jan_Tinbergenhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jan_Tinbergenhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netherlandshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_theoryhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_theoryhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statisticshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#cite_note-4http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McCarthyismhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McCarthyismhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Oxfordhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Oxfordhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdomhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford_modelhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Ball_(economist)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdomhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Pennsylvaniahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Bates_Clark_Medalhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Bates_Clark_Medalhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Franklinhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Franklinhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Econometric_modelhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Wharton_Econometric_Forecasting_Model&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#External_linkshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omaha,_Nebraskahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#cite_note-2http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Angeles_City_Collegehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calculushttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_California,_Berkeleyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_modelhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bachelor_of_Artshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ph.D.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massachusetts_Institute_of_Technologyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cowles_Commission_for_Research_in_Economicshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Chicagohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Chicagohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cowles_Foundationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_economyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_IIhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_IIhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depression_(economics)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#cite_note-3http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recessionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Warhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Michiganhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macroeconomic_modelhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Klein%E2%80%93Goldberger_model&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Klein%E2%80%93Goldberger_model&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_Goldbergerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jan_Tinbergenhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netherlandshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_theoryhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statisticshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Klein#cite_note-4http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McCarthyismhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Oxfordhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdomhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford_modelhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Ball_(economist)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdomhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Pennsylvaniahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Bates_Clark_Medalhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Franklinhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Econometric_modelhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Wharton_Econometric_Forecasting_Model&action=edit&redlink=1

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n 19B9 Klein fo6nded Wharton .conometric Foreca!tin& 5!!ociate!or W.F5 %now >S (lobal n!i&ht',

la6nchin& the econometric foreca!tin& ind6!try in the "nited State!# 5mon& hi! client! were(eneral .lectricompany, -, and -ethlehem Steel orporation# >e wa! the initiator of, and an acti*e re!earch leader in their

LKproAect, a con!orti6m of model b6ilder! from many co6ntrie!, which wa! al!o mentioned in hi! obel

citation# 3he aim wa! to prod6ce the world! fir!t &lobal economic model, linkin& model! of many of the world!co6ntrie! !o that the effect of chan&e! in the economy of one co6ntry are reflected in the other# LK, which i! no

operated by the "nited ation!, i! !till meetin& re&6larly, mo!t recently in October 2009 in -an&kok#

Klein !er*ed a! a the!i! ad*i!or for n6mero6! wellknown economi!t! incl6din& .# /oy Weintra6bin the late

19B0!#

Later career

6rin& the "nited State! pre!idential election, 19GB,Klein coordinated7immy arter! economic ta!k force# >e

declined an in*itation to Aoin arter! admini!tration# Klein ha! al!o been pre!ident of the .conometric Societyanthe 5merican .conomic 5!!ociation%in 19GG'#

>i! obel citation concl6de! that =few, if any, re!earch worker! in the empirical field of economic !cience, ha*e

had !o many !6cce!!or! and !6ch a lar&e impact a! Lawrence Klein=#

n hi! final year!, he wa! con!tr6ctin& !hort ran&e =c6rrent E6arter model!= that 6!e c6rrent economic indicator! to&et a handle on the rate of economic &rowth d6rin& the c6rrent and ne+t E6arter# n contra!t to earlier effort! to

model the economy !tr6ct6rally and to 6!e con!tant adA6!tment! and A6d&mental e!timate! for the e+o&eno6!

*ariable!, the!e !y!tem! are deliberately a6tomatic and mechanical, !imply tran!latin& a*ailable information into a!tati!tically be!t e!timate of c6rrent condition!# 3hi! repre!ent! a *ery different tradition from hi! earlier model

b6ildin& and application!#

5fter formal retirement and 6ntil hi! death he wa! en&a&ed in macro econometric model b6ildin& hi&hfreE6ency

model! that proAect the economy in a monthly, E6arterly frame# 5 p6blication on hi&h freE6ency model containin&co6ntrie! !6ch a! "S, hina,/6!!ia,ndia, -rail,e+ico, Koreaand>on& Kon&wa! e+pected in 200:#

Klein wa! a fo6ndin& tr6!tee of .conomi!t! for )eace and Sec6rity#

>e died at hi! home on October 20, 201$# >e wa! 9$#?8@

(ublications

Klein, Lawrence /obert %19G0'#An essay on the theory of economic prediction# arkham economic! !erie

%5merican ed#'# hica&oH arkham )6bli!hin& ompany# S-0:41020081# /etrie*ed 200:1208#

.conomic Fl6ct6ation! in the "nited State!, 1921

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