Launch Vehicle Failure Mode Database

AST Research and Development Project

Presented to: COMSTAC RLV Working Group

By: Nickolas Demidovich

Date: May 17, 2007

Federal AviationAdministration

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Overview• Historical Database Tasking

• Phase 1• Phase 2

• Status• Findings to date

• Overall• Trends

• Scope of Phase 2• Path Forward• Questions/Discussion

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Historical DatabaseDescription of Project:AST should compile and maintain a database of historical data on failures and reliability of rocket-powered vehicles. An exhaustive database would include not only percentage reliability and number of vehicles, but type and class of vehicle and, to the extent possible, the results of the failure analysis. The ultimate goal is to provide the industry with insight into what fails and why.

• Phase 1 orbital space launch vehicles • Phase 2 available data on suborbital rocket powered (non-missile)

vehicles (X-15 and others)

Schedule Study Period: November 2006 –June 2007Draft Report: Aug 2007Briefing: Next COMSTAC

Goal: Enhance Safety

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Status of Phase 1• Historical Database on ELVs was created

using open-source documentation on known failures• Database is Not proprietary • Database is Not ITAR controlled• Database is Preliminary

• Timeframe: 1957-2007• 28 percent of all launch failures over entire period had

unknown failures• Early Soviet (late 50’s and 60’s) data not publicly available

• “Failure” is as defined in FAA/AST report Guide to Probability of Failure Analysis for New Expendable Launch Vehicles:“An in-flight failure occurs when a launch vehicle does not

complete any phase of normal flight.”

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Status of Phase 1• Launch vehicle Database Sources

• Periodicals (i.e. Satellite News Digest, Jane’s Space Directory etc)

• Books (i.e.; Encyclopedia Astronautica, Spaceflight and Rocketry, International Reference Guide to Space Launch Systems, etc)

• Futron Corporation database from 1957• Electronic Library of Space Activity (ELSA)

• Press releases• Cross checked data base with internet

sites • USAF, NASA , etc

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Known Cause of ELV Launch Failures Worldwide by Vehicle Subsystem 1957- May 2007

Propulsion anomalies are salient failure mode historically

Propulsion51%

Electrical systems8%

Structures5%

Operational ordnance

5%

Software and computing systems

4%

Pneumatics and hydraulics

4%

Flight safety2%

Communications1%

Mechanical flight controls

<1%

Guidance and navigation systems

20%

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Known Cause of Launch Failures Worldwide by Vehicle Subsystem 1980-May 2007

Propulsion anomalies remain salient failure mode to date

Operational ordnance

6%

Structures6%

Guidance and navigation systems

13%

Electrical systems9% Software and

computing systems9%

Pneumatics and hydraulics

3%

Propulsion54%

\

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ELV Launch Failures Relative to Total Launches

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005

Nu

mb

er o

f L

aun

ches

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Per

cen

tag

e F

aile

d

All Launches Failed Launches Percent Failed

US &Soviet Early Launches

Initial LaunchesBy New Entrants

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Percentage of Failed ELV Launches by Country and Decade

  

Country 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Total Failure Percentage Since 1957

Total Failure Percentage Since 1980

China N/A N/A 41.7% 4.2% 24.5% 4.9% 15.2% 11.6%Europe N/A 40.0% 40.0% 25.8% 5.1% 3.0% 8.5% 5.8%India N/A N/A 100.0% 60.0% 50.0% 25.0% 42.9% 40.0%Japan N/A 100.0% 22.2% 0.0% 20.0% 22.2% 16.4% 9.4%Rest of World N/A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 60.0% 33.3% 35.7% 50.0%Russia 36.9% 19.2% 2.9% 3.4% 6.2% 6.2% 5.3% 4.2%USA 66.1% 15.0% 5.4% 9.4% 7.0% 3.8% 9.6% 6.1%

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Summary of Findings to Date - Trends

• 39 percent occur of failures occur during operation of the final stage• US vehicles have improved in this regard since

1990s

• Nations generally have early surge in failure • Then decline and level off

• Propulsion anomalies have been and continue to cause most known failures in ELV launches • All nations• Liquid, solid and combination

 

 

 

 

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Summary of Findings to Date - Trends

• Guidance and navigation have historically been second leading cause of failure • Have dropped over time

• Software and computing systems are a growing concern• 8% of failures from 1990-1999• 21% of failures since 1999

 

 

 

 

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Scope of phase 2• Historical database on failures of rocket-

powered aircraft currently being scoped• Database to focus on

• Post-World War II U.S. government and commercial rocket-powered aircraft (such as X-planes, etc.)

• Other Western post-World War II rocket-powered aircraft (such as French and British jets with auxiliary rocket engines)

• Post-World War II Soviet rocket-powered aircraft• World War II and earlier projects (German ME 163,

etc.)

• Research to include NASA logs and other primary sources

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Path Forward• Updating ELV Database as launches

occur• Historical Database of rocket powered

lifting bodies in progress• Scoping for Relevance

• Will update summary and database by next COMSTAC

• Provides opportunity for RLV community to learn from anomalies in ELVs and rocket-powered lifting bodies