latina america & caribbean outlook, jan 2014
TRANSCRIPT
Derek ChenWorld Bank
January 2014
Global Economic Prospects January 2014
Latin America & Caribbean
www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
Subdued global trade, softer commodity prices, and
domestic challenges curbed economic growth in the Latin America and Caribbean region
in 2013.
Economic Growth in 2013
2010 2011 2012 2013e0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
6.0
4.1
2.6 2.5
Latin America and the Caribbean RegionReal GDP Growth 2010 - 2013
%
Economic Growth in 2013
2010 2011 2012 2013e0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
6.0
4.1
2.6 2.5
Latin America and the Caribbean RegionReal GDP Growth 2010 - 2013
%
Economic Growth in 2013
2010 2011 2012 2013e0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
6.0
4.1
2.6 2.5
Latin America and the Caribbean RegionReal GDP Growth 2010 - 2013
%
Economic Growth in 2013
South America Central and North America Caribbean0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5%
Real GDP Growth
Economic Growth in 2013
South America Central and North America Caribbean0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
4.1
%
South America Central and North America Caribbean0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
4.1
2012 2013e
%
Economic Growth in 2013
South America Central and North America Caribbean0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
4.1
1.7
2012 2013e
%
Economic Growth in 2013
South America Central and North America Caribbean0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
4.1
1.7
2.2
2012 2013e
%
Economic Growth in 2013
South America Central and North America Caribbean0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
4.1
3.0
1.7
2.2
2012 2013e
%
Economic Growth in 2013
South America Central and North America Caribbean0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2.7
1.7
2.2
4.1
3.0
2012 2013e
%
Economic Growth in 2013
South America Central and North America Caribbean0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2.1
4.1
3.0
2.7
1.7
2.2
2012 2013e
%
Slowdown in Exports and Lower Commodity Prices
Jan-Nov 2012 Jan-Nov 2013 2012 2013e-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
7.6
4.1
-1.7
-2.6
Latin America and the CaribbeanExports Growth and Current Account Balance
(2012 & 2013)
Merchandise Exports Growth Current Account Balance
%
Slowdown in Exports and Lower Commodity Prices
Jan-Nov 2012 Jan-Nov 2013 2012 2013e-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
7.6
4.1
-1.7
-2.6
Latin America and the CaribbeanExports Growth and Current Account Balance
(2012 & 2013)
Merchandise Exports Growth Current Account Balance
%
Slowdown in Exports and Lower Commodity Prices
Jan-Nov 2012 Jan-Nov 2013 2012 2013e-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
7.6
4.1
-1.7
-2.6
Latin America and the CaribbeanExports Growth and Current Account Balance
(2012 & 2013)
Merchandise Exports Growth Current Account Balance
%
Slowdown in Exports and Lower Commodity Prices
Jan-Nov 2012 Jan-Nov 2013 2012 2013e-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
7.6
4.1
-1.7
-2.6
Latin America and the CaribbeanExports Growth and Current Account Balance
(2012 & 2013)
Merchandise Exports Growth Current Account Balance
%
Slowdown in Exports and Lower Commodity Prices
Jan-Nov 2012 Jan-Nov 2013 2012 2013e-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
7.6
4.1
-1.7-2.6
Latin America and the CaribbeanExports Growth and Current Account Balance
(2012 & 2013)
Merchandise Exports Growth Current Account Balance
%
Growth Outlook
Latin America and the Caribbean
South America Developing Central and North America
Caribbean0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2.9
2.6
3.5 3.43.2
2.9
3.9 3.93.7
3.5
4.2 4.2
Latin America and the CaribbeanProjected Real GDP Growth (2014-2016)
2014 2015 2016
%
Growth Outlook
Latin America and the Caribbean
South America Developing Central and North America
Caribbean0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2.9
2.6
3.5 3.43.2
2.9
3.9 3.93.7
3.5
4.2 4.2
Latin America and the CaribbeanProjected Real GDP Growth (2014-2016)
2014 2015 2016
%
Growth Outlook
Latin America and the Caribbean
South America Developing Central and North America
Caribbean0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2.9
2.6
3.5 3.43.2
2.9
3.9 3.93.7
3.5
4.2 4.2
Latin America and the CaribbeanProjected Real GDP Growth (2014-2016)
2014 2015 2016
%
Pick up in Exports
2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2.52.2
4.0
4.7
5.4
4.8
2.1
3.6
4.14.6
5.5
6.3
5.0
5.75.9
Latin America and the CaribbeanExports Growth (2012 - 2016)
LAC Central America Caribbean
%
Pick up in Exports
2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2.52.2
4.0
4.7
5.4
4.8
2.1
3.6
4.14.6
5.5
6.3
5.0
5.75.9
Latin America and the CaribbeanExports Growth (2012 - 2016)
LAC Central America Caribbean
%
Pick up in Exports
2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2.52.2
4.0
4.7
5.4
4.8
2.1
3.6
4.14.6
5.5
6.3
5.0
5.75.9
Latin America and the CaribbeanExports Growth (2012 - 2016)
LAC Central America Caribbean
%
Decline in Net Capital Flows
2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f
$US bn $US bn % change $US bn % change $US bn % change $US bn % change
Capital Inflows 312.1 296.2 -5.1 285.3 -3.7 303.8 6.5 313.8 3.3
Private inflows, net 300.3 289.9 -3.5 277.8 -4.2 294.5 6.0 308.4 4.7
Official inflows, net 11.8 6.3 -46.6 7.5 19.0 9.3 24.0 5.4 -41.9
Decline in Net Capital Flows
2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f
$US bn $US bn % change $US bn % change $US bn % change $US bn % change
Capital Inflows 312.1 296.2 -5.1 285.3 -3.7 303.8 6.5 313.8 3.3
Private inflows, net 300.3 289.9 -3.5 277.8 -4.2 294.5 6.0 308.4 4.7
Official inflows, net 11.8 6.3 -46.6 7.5 19.0 9.3 24.0 5.4 -41.9
Decline in Net Capital Flows
2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f
$US bn $US bn % change $US bn % change $US bn % change $US bn % change
Capital Inflows 312.1 296.2 -5.1 285.3 -3.7 303.8 6.5 313.8 3.3
Private inflows, net 300.3 289.9 -3.5 277.8 -4.2 294.5 6.0 308.4 4.7
Official inflows, net 11.8 6.3 -46.6 7.5 19.0 9.3 24.0 5.4 -41.9
Derek ChenWorld Bank
January 2014
Global Economic Prospects January 2014
Latin America & Caribbean
www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook