latin america: between highway to hell & stairway to heaven · latin america: between highway...
TRANSCRIPT
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Latin America: between
highway to hell &
stairway to heaven
David Franco
Santander - LATAM Chief Strategist for Europe
Milan, 14th June 2018
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From QE to QT: tougher financial conditions!
• Shift from quantitative easing into quantitative tightening will have a toll on Latam…
• Latam Financial Conditions respond faster to changes in core bond yields.
• Credit penetration is growing, albeit with significant gaps among Latam countries.
• Financial services have outperformed GDP growth in most cases.
• But a tightening in local financial conditions (through rates and FX) will trigger differentiated
impacts across Latam countries.
Equity volatility (VIX) – EM FX correlation US Financial Conditions vs Latam FX
Tighter US/ Weaker Latam FX
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Latam Financial conditions
Sovereign creditworthiness has deteriorated (CDS, 5yr) Policy interest rates: differences from previous levels
Current sovereign stress across the
Latam region is a combination of
external and idiosyncratic factors…
…However, banking cycles are not
synchronized across Latam as shown
by policy rates.
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10yr interest rate spreads vs US TSYs
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Latam Investors’ Risk-Reward perspective
The MELANCHOLY outlook
Argentina
• Bearish-neutral Bonds
• Bearish FX
• Bearish Equity
Brazil
• Bearish Bonds
• Bearish FX
• Neutral Equity
Mexico
• Neutral Bonds
• Bearish-neutral FX
• Bearish Equity
Argentina
• Bonds: UW
• FX: UW
• Equity: Neutral
Brazil
• Bonds: UW
• FX: Short
• Equity: Neutral
Mexico
• Bonds: OW-Neutral
• FX: Short
• Equity: Short
Investors general perspective
Market position
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Latam Investors’ Risk-Reward perspective
The BRIGHTER outlook
Chile
• Neutral Bonds
• Neutral-Bullish FX
• Bullish Equity
Colombia
• Bullish Bonds
• Bullish FX
• Bullish Equity
Peru
• Neutral Bonds
• Bullish FX
• Bullish Equity
Chile
• Bonds: OW
• FX: Long
• Equity: Long
Colombia
• Bonds: OW
• FX: Long
• Equity: Long
Peru
• Bonds: OW-Neutral
• FX: Neutral
• Equity: Long
Investors general perspective
Market position
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Latam Financials performance
The MELANCHOLY outlook (drivers)
Argentina
• IMF-social unrest
• Elections
Brazil
• Fiscal challenge
• Elections
Mexico
• NAFTA
• Elections
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Latam Financials performance
The BRIGHTER outlook (drivers)
Peru
• Commodities
• Convergence
Chile
• Commodities
• Political stability
Colombia
• Commodities
• Low political risk
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Latam Financials: Tailwinds
Non-performing loans across the Latam region
• A stable ration of non-performing loans
is a good signal of limited
vulnerabilities.
• Profitability for the financial sector also
is explained by strong capitalization
ratios.
• In contrast to Europe, the regulatory
requirements remain less restrictive.
• Demographics and still limited
penetration of digital banking also
mean a positive environment
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Latam Financials: Headwinds
• Normalization of credit conditions, still elevated leverage ratios and corruption toll on
activity.
The ease of doing business has improved… ….however, corruption remains a key challenge
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Thank you!
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Summary:
• The ongoing tightening in developed markets led by US Fed rate normalization
and USD repricing is means tougher financial conditions across the Latam
countries. Market positioning from financial investors in general is quickly
adapting to the new risk/reward conditions.
• External stress and idiosyncratic factors running in parallel should produce
differentiated impacts across Latam countries. However, Latam fundamentals in
general have improved versus previous crisis.
• Those countries with bearish outlook given more systemic vulnerabilities
include Argentina, Brazil and Mexico (in that order). Meanwhile the outlook is
brighter for the smaller countries: Colombia, Peru and Chile.