latest trends in worker demographics · 2014 2016 2018 2014 2016 2018 2014 2016 2018 short-tenured...
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Latest Trends inWorker Demographics
Barry Lipton, FCAS, MAAAPractice Leader and Senior ActuaryNCCI
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Insights on Shifting Demographics
Aging Workforce and Its Implications
Gender and Education
Short-Tenured Employees
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Aging Workforce and Its Implications
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Aging WorkforceHistorical and Projected Changes in Labor Force, Millions
▪ 2018–2028 has large growth in two groups of workers:
Share of 2018 total labor force, age 16–24 13% 25–44 43% 45–64 37% 65 and Older 6% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections program
–1.0
+2.0
+3.0
+3.8
–1.3
+4.8
–0.7
+6.1
Age Range
25–44 Years
16–24 Years
45–64 Years
65 and Older
▪ 65 and Older
▪ 25–44 Years
▪ 65 and Older grows from 6% to nearly 10% of workforce by 2028
2008–2018: +8 million
2018–2028: +9 million
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2018
60
80
100
120
140
160
2006
Cases per 10k FTE
Frequency Is Rising for Oldest WorkersBLS Incidence Rates by Age Range
FTE = Full-time equivalent workersSource: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections program
▪ Frequency has fallen most for workers age 25–44
▪ Frequency for workers age 65 and Older has increased in the last two years
25–44
16–24
45–64
65 and Older
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5 Days
14 Days
0
10
20
16–19 20–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64 65 and Older
Older Workers Lose More Time For Work-Related InjuriesMedian Days Away From Work by Age Group, All Injuries
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses; Days lost per injury with at least one day away from work.
Median Days AwayFrom Work
Median All Workers
8 Days
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16–1
9
20–2
4
25–3
4
35–4
4
45–5
4
55–6
4
65 a
nd
Old
er
0
10
2017Days
5Days
Falls, Slips, Trips and Overexertion Drive InjuriesMedian Days Away From Work by Age Group, Injury Event
Younger Older
16–1
9
20–
24
25–
34
35–
44
45–
54
55–6
4
65 a
nd
Old
er
20 Days
4 Days
16–
19
20–
24
25–
34
35–
44
45–
54
55–
64
65 a
nd
Old
er
6 Days
4 Days
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses; Days lost per injury with at least one day away from work.
Younger Older Younger Older
Falls, Slips, Trips Contact InjuriesOverexertion
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Gender and Education
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Employment Growth Varies by Age and GenderCumulative Change Since 2015
55+ years Men fasterthan Women
25–54 yearsWomen faster than Men
Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey
–5
-
+5
+10
+15
+20
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Percent
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▪ As the workforce ages, more Women above age 50 will hold college degrees
MenHigher
WomenHigher
College Degree Attainment Varies by Age and GenderProportion of Adults With a Four-Year Degree by Age Range, 2018
▪ Age 60 and Older: more Men have college degrees than Women
Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey
25–29
30–34
35–39
40–44
45–49
50–54
55–59
60–64
65–69
70–74
75+
- 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
MenWomenAge
Range
▪Women’s labor force participation at older ages will likely increase
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Short-Tenured Employees
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Short-Tenured Workers Suffer Disproportionate Share of Injuries
▪ New workers: A third of injuriesbut only a fifth of employment
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses
0
20
40
Under 1 year
Percentshare
2014 2016 2018
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0
20
40
60
80
Under 1 year 1–5 years 5+ years
Percentshare
2014 2016 2018 2014 2016 2018 2014 2016 2018
Short-Tenured Workers Suffer Disproportionate Share of Injuries
▪ New workers: A third of injuriesbut only a fifth of employment
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses
▪ Workers 5+ years:Half of employmentbut only a third of injuries
0
40
Under 1 year
Percentshare
2014 2016 2018
Concern: Share of injuries of short-tenured workers will rise post-Coronavirus
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▪ Short-Tenured Workers Could Be:
▪ Same employer → Same job
▪ New employer → Same occupation
▪ New employer → Different occupation
Tenure and Implications of Coronavirus
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses
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Conclusion
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Why Is This Important?
Worker-centric model requires knowing the injured worker
Comorbidities more likely for older workers
Women tend to have different comorbidities than men
CLAIMS
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Why Is This Important?
Turnover and tenure are relevant to underwriting
Historical patterns are shifting due to economic shock
UNDERWRITING
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Why Is This Important?
Safety management and loss prevention can put extra focus on short-tenured workers and older workers
LOSS PREVENTION
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Thank You