latam corporates limited upside in the short term · 2017-06-21 · latam –different countries,...

Latam Corporates

Limited Upside in the Short Term

Marianna Waltz, Managing Director – LATAM Corporate Finance

Bárbara Mattos, VP – Senior Credit Officer

Alonso Sanchez, VP – Senior Analyst

Veronica Amendola, VP – Senior Analyst

JUNE 2017

2Moody’s Chile Briefing 2017

LATAM – Different Countries, Same Framework

Investors’ renewed risk appetite towards

EMs

Commodity prices are higher, but will remain

volatile and range-bound

Improved sentiment in Brazil, Peru and

Argentina, but soft regional GDP trends

Governments have less fiscal space to

support growth through public spending

Spillover of Odebrecht investigations may

delay infra-structure pipeline

Global Local

Which

product?Which

country?

Mining

Pulp and Paper

Agriculture

Oil and Gas (NOCs)

Construction

Telecom

Consumer

‘Global’ and ‘Local’ Sectors Face Different Challenges


Global Sectors: No Changes in FundamentalsCopper Prices ($/lb)

Iron Ore Prices ($/MT)

$2.30 $2.40

$2.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

LME Copper ($/lb) Moody's Base Case ($/lb)

Moody's Stress Case ($/lb)

-

40.00

80.00

120.00

160.00

Iron Ore (IODEX 62% CFR) Moody's Base Case ($/MT)

Moody's Stress Case ($/MT)

$55$45

$50

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

WTI Brent Brent (Moody's price assumption)

Stress case

prices:

WTI: $30

Brent: $30

Oil Prices ($/barrel)

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

bleached hardwood kraft pulp (Europe)northern bleached softwood kraft (Europe)bleached eucalyptus kraft pulp

Pulp Prices ($/tonne)

Source: London Metal Exchange, FOEX Indexes, Energy Information Administration, Platts.


Closer Links Among Political, Sentiment and Macro Spheres

Corruption Scandals /

Presidential Elections

Volatility and Reversal of Confidence

Loop between Political and Economic

Reversal of Recent Positive

Macro Developments

RISKS


Fragile Stability, Limited Upside in the Short Term

Brazil: Corporate Recovery will be Very

Gradual

Mexico: Stability Absent a Nafta Stress

Case

Argentina: Inflection Point Reached, But

Long Way Ahead

Peru: Spillover of Corruption to Delay

Infrastructure Projects


Liquidity Risk is Uneven

Cost savings and capex cuts

Market access not democratic

Ba vs B credits

Volatility!

Source: Moody's Financial Metrics; Composite of rated, non-regulated and non-financial companies

$73.2 $72.0$66.8

$54.7$63.5

$43.9 $44.1 $46.8 $45.1$50.1

1.67x 1.63x

1.43x

1.21x

1.27x

0.0x

0.2x

0.4x

0.6x

0.8x

1.0x

1.2x

1.4x

1.6x

1.8x

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

$ b

illio

ns

Cash - Ex-Petrobras ST Debt- Ex-Petrobras

LATAM HY bond issuances directed to refinancing; not growth


Chile: Copper Prices, Growth, Confidence

Source: London Metal Exchange, Banco Central de Chile

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

$3.61

$3.34

$3.10

$2.50

$2.21

$2.63

5.5%

4.0%

1.9%

2.3%

1.6%1.9%

2.5%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

$-

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E

GD

P g

row

th

US

D/lb

Average copper price GDP growth

Slow growth mainly driven by:

Reduced demand for Chilean exports from China

Still-low commodity prices

Lower investment due to low business

confidence

Low Business Confidence (IMCE Index)


Metals’ expected fundamentals over next 12 months

NEGATIVE STABLE POSITIVE

Oversupply Balance Deficit

» Aluminium

» Iron Ore

» Thermal Coal

» Ferroalloys

» Copper

» Nickel

» Met Coal

» Diamonds

» Zinc

» Platinum

» Vale

» Votorantim S.A.

» CODELCO

» Southern Copper

» Minera Escondida

» Minera Frisco

» Buenaventura

» Vale / Vale Canada

» Volcan

» VM Holding

» Peñoles

Commodities

Companies (by commodity

exposure)


Copper Prices will see modest recovery in the short term

Higher-than-anticipated Chinese demand on

stimulus spending, production disruptions,

and low costs for non-US producers has

resulted in a lower surplus than anticipated

With lower than expected new supply

coming on, copper should be in relative

supply-demand balance or present a small

deficit in 2017-18

Average copper prices of USD 2.62/lb in

2017 vs. USD 2.21/lb in 2016

Source: Moody’s Investor Service and London Metal Exchange

LME Copper Inventory vs. Price/lb.January 2012 to May 2017


CODELCO: Metrics Pressured by Copper Prices and Capex

2.8x

3.7x

8.5x

6.2x6.3x

4.2x

-0.3x

0.7x

-2x

0x

2x

4x

6x

8x

10x

2013 2014 2015 2016

Adj. Debt/EBITDA Adj. EBIT/Interest

Gross Leverage & Interest Coverage Free Cash Flow & Capital Spending

$(2.4)

$(1.4) $(1.4)

$(1.7)

$(4.5)

$(3.9)

$(4.3)

$(3.1)

-$5.0

-$4.5

-$4.0

-$3.5

-$3.0

-$2.5

-$2.0

-$1.5

-$1.0

-$0.5

$0.0

2013 2014 2015 2016

US

D,

bill

ion

s

Free Cash Flow Capex

Source: Moody‘s Financial Metrics


Consumption growth will remain limited in Chile

Higher GDP per capita in the region, but weak economic outlook

Still low confidence despite recent recovery

Source: IMF, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas Chile, GFK Chile, Moody’s Investors Service

GDP per Capita (USD – 2016) Retail Activity and Consumer Confidence


Retail sales will grow at modest pace

Insert Text

Insert Text

Insert Text

Insert Text

Source: Euromonitor, Moody’s Investors Service

Expected GDP and Real Retail Sales


Diversification Entails Opportunities and Risks

Geographic diversity reduces risk of weaker

regional downturns and/or natural disasters

Step-up in revenue growth and market position

Purchasing power with vendors

Potential Price leadership

Short term credit metric deterioration

Financial flexibility required

Debt-financed or credit-transforming

acquisitions

Credit

Positives

Credit

Negatives


Diversification: Cencosud’s Experience

Source: Cencosud Financial Statements for fiscal year 2016, Moodys Investors Service

Sales EBITDA

EBITDASales


Consumption Recovers, but is Weaker than in 2016

Source: INEGI, GfK

69

84 87

101

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Ma

y-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Fe

b-1

7

Ma

r-17

Apr-

17

Co

nsu

me

r C

on

fid

en

ce

In

de

x

Mexico Peru

Consumer Confidence Index

22%

Jan- Apr

16%

Feb- Apr

4.1%

2.7%

4.0%

6.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%2016 2017

Same Stores Sales Growth - Mexico


Similar Trends in Mexico and Peru…

Growing health concerns

Obesity problems

Internet retailing with the fastest growth

amongst distribution channels for packaged

food

Positive growth of packaged food at a slower

pace

Expansion of product portfolios

Leading beverages brands renovating their

image

Growing health concerns

Obesity problems

Better for you products: Healthier food &

beverages

70% of packaged food sold through

traditional channel

Companies launching new products with low

sugar/fat

Potential rule for labeling products for sugar,

fat and salt content


…But Markets Will Grow at Faster Pace in Peru

Source: Euromonitor

7.1%

6.6%6.1%

5.7%5.2%

4.7%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f

An

nu

al G

row

th

Vo

lum

e, m

illio

n li

tres

Volume Growth

2.5%2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

44,000

46,000

48,000

50,000

52,000

54,000

56,000

58,000

60,000

62,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f

An

nu

al G

row

th

Vo

lum

e, m

illio

n li

tres

Volume Growth

Soft Drinks, Mexico Soft Drinks, Peru

Packaged Food, Mexico BFY Packaged Food, Peru

1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

5,400

5,600

5,800

6,000

6,200

6,400

6,600

6,800

7,000

7,200

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f

Ann

ual G

row

th

Vol

ume,

tho

usan

d to

nnes

Volume Growth

7.2%

5.5%5.9%

5.5% 5.1% 4.8%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f

Ann

ual G

row

th

Sale

s, m

illio

n PE

N

Sales Growth


NAFTA Increased Trade Between Mexico, US and Canada

NAFTA Total Trade

Source: US Census Bureau

$81

$525

$293

$1,070

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

USD

Bill

ion

s

US trade with Mexico Total US NAFTA trade


Macro indicators recovered since January

Source: INEGI and Banco de México

2.2% 2.4%

3.6% 3.2%

4.2%5.4%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

GDP Unemployment Inflation

MXN 10.31

MXN 19.14

7.9%

6.9%

MXN 0

MXN 5

MXN 10

MXN 15

MXN 20

MXN 25MXN/USD Interest rate (interbank)

Higher inflation, interest rates and FX volatility... …But consumption remains supported by low unemployment


Challenging Water Availability and Rising Energy Needs in Mining

21.9 22.8 23.525.2

26.528.5 28.9 29.8 30.6 30.6 30.4 29.5

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

TW

h

Concentradora Mina Rajo Mina Subterránea Fundición Refinería LX/SX/EW Servicios Uso Agua de Mar

13.0

11.8 12.0 12.2 12.211.6 11.3

11.9 11.6 11.9 11.710.8

3.44.2 4.4

5.15.9

7.37.9 8.3

8.9 9.0 9.3 9.3

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

m3/s

ec

Fresh Water Sea Water

Energy Consumption by Process - Forecast

Water Consumption Forecast

Source: Comisión Chilena del Cobre


Recent Expansions Leading to Higher Leverage in LatAmPulp and Paper Industry

Note: Latin America average includes Fibria, Suzano, CMPC and Arauco

Source: Moody‘s Financial Metrics

Net Revenues$ Billion

EBITDA

Total Debt / EBITDA EBITDA / Interest Expense (RCF-Capex) / Total Debt


And Growing Market Pulp Supply…

Source: Hawkins Wright, RISI, Moody's Investors Service

Global Market Pulp Production by Fiber Type

11 13 14 16 16 17 18 19 22 23 24 25 2612 11 10 9 9 10 10 10

10 10 10 11 1323 23 22 22 22 23 24 2525 26 27

2829

4 3 3 3 33 3 2

2 2 22

2

total50

total50

total49

total50

total50

total53

total55

total56

total59

total61

total62

total66

total70

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E

mill

ion tonnes

Bleached eucalyptus kraft pulp Bleached hardwood kraft pulp Bleached softwood kraft pulp other


…Will Limit Pulp Prices in 2017-18

Source: RISI, Moody’s Investors Service

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

Jan

-08

Ap

r-08

Jul-

08

Oct-

08

Jan

-09

Ap

r-09

Jul-

09

Oct-

09

Jan

-10

Ap

r-10

Jul-

10

Oct-

10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Jul-

11

Oct-

11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Jul-

12

Oct-

12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Jul-

13

Oct-

13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Jul-

14

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

Jul-

15

Oct-

15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-16

Jul-

16

Oct-

16

Jan

-17

US

D/t

on

ne

bleached hardwood kraft pulp (Europe) northern bleached softwood kraft (Europe) bleached eucalyptus kraft pulp

NBSK (5 years)

Average: $851

Peak price: $933

Through price: $764

BHKP (5 years)

Average: $753

Peak price: $820

Through price: $650

BEKP (5 years)

Average: $597

Peak price: $703

Through price: $490


Marianna Waltz

Managing Director – LATAM Corporate Finance

+55.11.7043.7309

[email protected]

Alonso Sanchez

VP – Senior Analyst

+52.55.1253.5706

[email protected]

Barbara Mattos

VP – Senior Credit Officer

+55.11.3043.7357

[email protected]

Veronica Amendola

VP – Senior Analyst

+54.11.5129.2610

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


Retailing in Argentina

We expect a recovery in consumption based on lower inflation, recovering salaries and

pensions increases, although consumer decisions will be ruled by price convenience

Source: CAME and Universidad Torcuato DiTella

Currency

devaluation

impacting

prices

Higher

interest

rates

Public

services

tariffs

increase

High

inflation

Sharp consumption contraction

Partially offset by

discounts,

promotions and

financing schemes

from banks and

businesses

Salaries

deterioratio

n (inflation)


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latam corporates limited upside in the short term · 2017-06-21 · latam –different countries,...

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