last update : 25.02 › ... › mmo-report-2015-02-24_en.pdf2015/02/24 · last update : 25.02.2015...

o The 4th meeting of the Milk Market Observatory's

Economic Board took place on 24 February 2015, with the participation of experts from the member organisations representing the various steps in the milk supply chain: CEJA (young farmers), COPA-COGECA (producers and cooperatives), ECVC (Via Campesina), EMB (European Milk Board), EDA (dairy industry), Eucolait (dairy trade) and

Eurocommerce (retail).

o The meeting was opened with 3 presentations by DG AGRI on the milk market situation, the development of exports following the Russian import ban and the short term outlook. The factual information material prepared by participants and

exchanged during the meeting allowed to gather the following picture on the current milk market situation and short term perspectives.

o Downward pressure on prices registered since early 2014 in a context of oversupply, exacerbated by the Russian ban (SMP -35%, WMP -24%, Cheddar –20%, Edam & Gouda -19%, butter -

18%, whey powder -12% and Emmental -6% since early August) has been reversed for dairy commodities since the middle of January 2015 (SMP +17%, WMP + 12%, butter +11%, whey powder +10%, Cheddar +6%). The extent of the recovery and its suddenness have taken most market actors by surprise. The strong milk

production slow down, weak € supporting exports and drought declaration in some part of NZ were mentioned as tentative explanations.

o Farm gate milk prices experienced their strongest decrease in December 2014 (- 3.8%). The trend appears to be stabilising (expected -0.8% in

January 2015) and the floor is announced as having been reached in some MS. The concomitance of low farm gate milk prices and heavy surplus levy in some MS was mentioned as generating cash flow difficulties for farmers.

o The future remains uncertain, notably with regard to production reaction after 31 March 2015 (milk

quota expiry), as the recent slowdown is considered to be more related to looming surplus levy, and only to a lesser extent to lower milk prices. In countries like France, milk production variations are framed by existing contracts and A/B price practices.

o In the draft short-term outlook prepared by the

Commission, EU milk collection is expected to increase again from 1 April 2015 onwards, total year cumulating with a 1.2% increase compared to 2014. The situation varies considerably from MS to MS, some of them recording both increased cow slaughtering and fewer heifers which would logically not lead to increased milk production in

the short run, while others record fewer old cows but increased heifer numbers, hinting at production growth potential.

o The assessment of EU stock levels based on a residual approach (production + imports – consumption and exports) showed decreasing

stocks for all dairy commodities in the last months of 2014 and the trend is expected to continue in January/February 2015. Quantities put under the private storage aid scheme in the last quarter of 2014 are assessed to have already found customers and not to weigh further on the market. PSA extension is nevertheless considered as

appropriate to help spread out upcoming peak production without endangering the current fragile recovery.

o Milk supply increased in key producing regions of the world in 2014, except for Argentina and Uruguay. Combined increased production proved higher than the estimated 2% increase in world

demand each year. The EU achieved solid export growth, in particular for milk powder at the end of 2014 and some signs of recovery are signalled in China's buying. World stock levels are reported as higher than a year ago, but not at worrying levels.

o Consumption data shared during the meeting did

not show a general recovery in internal EU demand, but some products in some MS seem promising.

o Uncertainties for the months to come are the development of milk production from 1 April onwards, the strength of China's buying and the end of the Russian import ban whose impact on

cheese exports is more difficult to compensate with other destinations than for commodity products.

– -

Last update : 25.02.2015

Milk Market Observatory REP.Meb

MMO Economic Board

Meeting of 24 February 2015

ANNEX 1

Milk Market Situation

European Commission

Milk Market Situation

Brussels, 24 February 2015

24 February 2015 2

!!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!!

EU Productions

Total Butter+ 3.5%

Skimmed-milk powder+ 24.1%

Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder

and partly skimmed milk

powder+ 8.0%

Cheese+ 1.6%

Fermented milk- 2.7%

Cows' Milk Collected

+ 5.0%

- 10% - 5% + 0% + 5% + 10% + 15% + 20% + 25% + 30% + 35%

Evo

luti

on

in %

EU-28 Deliveries/Productions development (Jan - Nov 2014 compared to Jan - Nov 2013)

Source : MS' Communications to Eurosta, FEGA, AGEARem : DK : Nov data estimated (except Milk)

Total Butter+ 3.3%

Skimmed-milk powder+ 26.1%

Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder

and partly skimmed milk

powder+ 2.8%

Cheese+ 1.3%

Fermented milk- 3.0%

Cows' Milk Collected

+ 4.7%

- 10% - 5% + 0% + 5% + 10% + 15% + 20% + 25% + 30% + 35%

Evo

luti

on

in %

EU-28 Deliveries/Productions development(Apr 2014 - Nov 2014 compared to Apr 2013 - Nov 2013)

Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat, FEGA, AGEARem : DK : Nov data estimated (except Milk)

24 February 2015 3

-16.0% to -12.0%

-12.0% to -8.0%

-8.0% to -4.0%

-4.0% to +0.0%

+0.0% to +4.0%

+4.0% to +8.0%

+8.0% to +12.0%

+12.0% to +16.0%

n/a+7.2

+3.3

+1.1

+2.1

+3.9

+6.8

+5.0

-4.8+5.9

+6.2

+3.1

+5.2

+10.0

+7.4

+6.6

+6.4

+2.3

+3.8

+7.1

+4.8

+14.1

+2.9

+2.0

+3.2

+2.4

+8.8

Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat, FEGA, AGEA

+4.1

24 February 2015 4

-16.0% to -12.0%

-12.0% to -8.0%

-8.0% to -4.0%

-4.0% to +0.0%

+0.0% to +4.0%

+4.0% to +8.0%

+8.0% to +12.0%

+12.0% to +16.0%

n/a+6.8

+4.5

+1.7

+1.4

+3.6

+6.0

+5.9

-4.6+5.8

+5.7

+3.4

+5.0

+9.3

+7.6

+7.4

+8.2

+1.5

+3.3

+7.0

+5.4

+14.5

+3.7

+2.8

+2.9

+2.0

+7.6

Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat, FEGA, AGEA

+5.3

24 February 2015 5 Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat, FEGA, AGEA

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

10

00

To

nn

es

EU - Cows' milk collected ( 30d ajusted months )

2014

2013

2012

2011

Last Update : Jan-Nov

Jan-Nov 2014/13 : +5%

Source : Estat - Newcronos

6 24 February 2015

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

Jan 0

1

Jan 0

2

Jan 0

3

Jan 0

4

Jan 0

5

Jan 0

6

Jan 0

7

Jan 0

8

Jan 0

9

Jan 1

0

Jan 1

1

Jan 1

2

Jan 1

3

Jan 1

4

Jan 1

5

Jan 1

6

EU

R/

10

0

kg

EU Raw Milk Prices Evolution (up to December 14)

Weighted EU Average (real fat content)

EU Milk Equivalent Price (based on EU

SMP and Butter prices)

Milk Prices (LTO)

Source :MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 & 479/2010 + LTO : Land- en Tuinbouworganisatie Nederland (http://www.milkprices.nl/)

* : provisional prices

24 February 2015 7

Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010

NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk, others to milk with real fat and protein

content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010

57,5

47,4

42,9

42,8

36,7

36,0

35,0

34,5

34,3

34,0

33,6

33,6

33,5

33,4

33,2

33

,1

32,5

32,5

31,8

31,7

31,4

31,2

31,1

30,8

30,4

30,0

25,1

25,0

24,3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

CY MT GR FI AT IT HR DK GB PT IE LU SE ES FR EU BG DE SK SI HU BE CZ NL RO PL LT EE LV

in E

UR

/1

00

kg

E U M I L K P R I C E S

Milk Price 2013

Milk Price 2014

Source : Member States (Reg. 479/2010)

( Dec 2014 vs Dec 2013 )

Estimates for CZ, DK, EL, ES,

24 February 2015 8 Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EUR/1

00 kg

Weekly EU SMP Prices

2012 2013 2014 2015 IP 2009

Latest price : 215 EUR/100kg

Evolution compared to same period last year : -35%

251

225223

220

215

199

193

188

173

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

GB NL DE BE EU Avg. CZ IE PL LV

in E

UR

/100 kg

EU S.M.P. Prices (up to 15.02.2015)

I.P

Source : Reg. (EC) No 479/2010 Article 2

24 February 2015 9


150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EUR/1

00 kg

Weekly EU BUTTER Prices

2012 2013 2014 2015 IP 2009



24 February 2015 11

399392

340 337 335324

318 318314

298293

284

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

HR SK LV NL BE ES DE EU

Avg.

CZ GB PL IE

EU

R/1

00 kg

EU BUTTER Prices (up to 15.02.2015)

Source : Reg. (EC) No 479/2010 Article 2

I.P. = 221.75

24 February 2015 12

318

215

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15

in E

UR

/100 kg

.

EU Quotations of Butter and SMP

(EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production)

Butter Intervention buying in price

SMP Intervention buying in price

BUTTER prices

SMP prices

Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010

24 February 2015 13

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

Jan 0

3

Jan 0

4

Jan 0

5

Jan 0

6

Jan 0

7

Jan 0

8

Jan 0

9

Jan 1

0

Jan 1

1

Jan 1

2

Jan 1

3

Jan 1

4

Jan 1

5

in E

UR/1

00 k

g

EU Dairy Quotations

(EU Average Prices based on MS communication and weighted by production)

BUTTER

SMP

WMP

CHEDDAR

Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010


150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EUR/1

00 kg

Weekly EU WMP Prices

2012 2013 2014 2015



24 February 2015 15

Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EUR/100 kg

Weekly EU CHEDDAR Prices

2012 2013 2014 2015



150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EUR/100 kg

Weekly EU EDAM Prices

2012 2 013 2 014 2 015



24 February 2015 16

Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EUR/1

00 kg

Weekly EU WheyPowder Prices

2012 2013 2014 2015



24 February 2015 17

USD/EUR

Source: European Central Bank

US Dollar

1.1298

24 February 2015 18

2 700

2 4482 552

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000N

ov 0

7

Feb

08

May

08

Aug

08

Nov 0

8

Feb

09

May

09

Aug

09

Nov 0

9

Feb

10

May 1

0

Aug

10

Nov 1

0

Feb

11

May

11

Aug

11

Nov 1

1

Feb

12

May

12

Aug

12

Nov 1

2

Feb

13

May

13

Aug

13

Nov 1

3

Feb

14

May 1

4

Aug

14

Nov 1

4

Feb

15

Pri

ces

in U

SD

/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP

Avg Oceania SMP quotation

Avg EU SMP internal Price

Avg US SMP quotation

Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news

24 February 2015 19

3 200

2 9853 164

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000N

ov 0

7

Feb

08

May 0

8

Aug

08

Nov 0

8

Feb

09

May 0

9

Aug

09

Nov 0

9

Feb

10

May 1

0

Aug

10

Nov 1

0

Feb

11

May 1

1

Aug

11

Nov 1

1

Feb

12

May 1

2

Aug

12

Nov 1

2

Feb

13

May 1

3

Aug

13

Nov 1

3

Feb

14

May 1

4

Aug

14

Nov 1

4

Feb

15

Pri

ces in U

SD

/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP

Avg Oceania WMP quotation

Avg EU WMP internal Price

Avg US WMP quotation


24 February 2015 20

3 8503 616

3 795

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

6 500

7 000N

ov 0

7

Feb

08

May

08

Aug

08

Nov 0

8

Feb

09

May 0

9

Aug

09

Nov 0

9

Feb

10

May

10

Aug

10

Nov 1

0

Feb

11

May

11

Aug

11

Nov 1

1

Feb

12

May

12

Aug

12

Nov 1

2

Feb

13

May 1

3

Aug

13

Nov 1

3

Feb

14

May

14

Aug

14

Nov 1

4

Feb

15

Pri

ces in

US

D/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter

Avg Oceania Butter quotation

Avg EU Butter internal Price

Avg US Butter quotation


24 February 2015 21

3 700

3 398

3 733

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000N

ov 0

7

Feb

08

May 0

8

Aug

08

Nov 0

8

Feb

09

May 0

9

Aug

09

Nov 0

9

Feb

10

May 1

0

Aug

10

Nov 1

0

Feb

11

May 1

1

Aug

11

Nov 1

1

Feb

12

May 1

2

Aug

12

Nov 1

2

Feb

13

May 1

3

Aug

13

Nov 1

3

Feb

14

May 1

4

Aug

14

Nov 1

4

Feb

15

Pri

ces in

US

D/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Cheddar

Avg OceaniaCheddar quotation

Avg EU Cheddar internal Price

Avg US Cheddar quotation


24 February 2015 22

127 989 150 157

458 752

507 682

48 051 42 185

92 469

72 583

17 692 12 944

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

2013 2014

BUTTER & Butteroil

Exports

EU-28 (up to Dec)New Zealand (up to Dec)Australia (up to Dec)United States (up to Dec)Argentina (up to Dec)

24 February 2015 23

406 744

657 160

391 969 383 005

119 311 .

163 629 .

554 831 . 553 557 .

24 963 21 600

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

2013 2014

SMP ExportsEU-28 (up to Dec)New Zealand (up to Dec)Australia (up to Dec)United States (up to Dec)Argentina (up to Dec)

24 February 2015 24

374

278

392

803

1 291 460 .1 423 834 .

96 1

01

80 8

94

39 7

63

54 8

10182

487

143

715

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

2013 2014

WMP ExportsEU-28 (up to Dec)New Zealand (up to Dec)Australia (up to Dec)United States (up to Dec)Argentina (up to Dec)

24 February 2015 25

786 683727 285

276 886 278 162

163

386

150

594

318 143370 529

51 175 56 450

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

900 000

2013 2014

CHEESE

Exports

EU-28 (up to Dec)New Zealand (up to Dec)Australia (up to Dec)United States (up to Dec)Argentina (up to Dec)

24 February 2015 26

EU-28 Exports (1/2) Source : Eurostat (COMEXT)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

118 119126

94102 102

122

1000 Tonnes

BUTTER exports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


1000 tonnes

Jan-Dec 2014 exports compared to 2013 : + 19%

BUTTER exports

2013

2014

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

176229

376

515 520

407

657

1000 TonnesSMP exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


1000 tonnes


SMP exports

2013

2014

24 February 2015 27

EU-28 Exports (2/2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

547 569

667 673

768 787727

1000 Tonnes

CHEESE exports

0

100

200

300

400

500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

483458 445

388 386 374393

1000 TonnesWMP exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


1000 tonnes

Jan-Dec 2014 exports compared to 2013 : - 8%

CHEESE exports

2013

2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45


1000 tonnes


WMP exports

20132014

24 February 2015 34

Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. - 1/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

40 55 70 89130

168

235

1000 Tonnes

China

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


1000 tonnes

Jan-Dec 2014 compared to 2013 : + 8%

2013

2014

0

50

100

150

200

250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

121152 165 155

194236

198

1000 Tonnes

Mexico

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


1000 tonnes

Jan-Nov 2014 compared to 2013 : + 1%

2013

2014

Jan-Nov 2014 compared to 2013 : + 1%

24 February 2015 36

Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 1/2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

58 46

177

326 320406

619

1000 Tonnes

China

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


1000 tonnes

Jan-Dec 2014 compared to 2013 : + 8%

2013

2014

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

160 153200

167204 188

142

1000 Tonnes

Algeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


1000 tonnes

Jan-Apr 2014 compared to 2013 : + 14%

2013

2014

Jan-Apr 2014 compared to 2013 : + 14%

24 February 2015 38

Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 1/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

234 248 229

294 296 316 327

1000 Tonnes

Russia

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


1000 tonnesJan-Nov 2014 compared to 2013 : - 3%

2013

2014

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

225187 184 199 215 235 236

1000 Tonnes

Japan

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35


1000 tonnes

Jan-Dec 2014 compared to 2013 : - 2%

20132014

24 February 2015 40

7 000

7 200

7 400

7 600

7 800

8 000

8 200

Jan

Fe

b

Ma

r

Apr

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

in t

on

ne

s

.

Adjusted U.S. milk production (months of constant length)

2011 2012 2013 2014

Source:USDA

Jan-Dec 2014 vs 2013 : + 2.4% (real monthly production)

24 February 2015 41 Source: Dairy Australia

,500

,600

,700

,800

,900

1,000

1,100

1,200

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

in t

on

ne

s

Jul-Dec 2014/15 compared to 2013/14 : + 2.6%

Australian milk production

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15

24 February 2015 42 Source: DCANZ - Fonterra

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

in t

on

ne

s

.

Jun-Dec 2014/15 compared to 2013/14 : + 4.1%

NZ milk production

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15

24 February 2015 43

Prices

in US$/t Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15

Weighted

average

price % change Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15

AMF n.a. 4 281 4 326 4 335 4 359 4 388 4 314 + 6.1% + 6.0% + 5.9% + 6.0% + 7.0% + 5.3%

Butter n.a. 3 795 3 826 3 835 3 940 n.a. 3 823 + 1.1% - 1.6% + 1.2% + 5.2% + 5.2%

BMP n.a. 2 675 2 670 n.a. n.a. n.a. 2 674 + 9.7% + 11.8% - 0.6%

Cheeses n.a. 2 997 3 064 3 111 n.a. n.a. 3 054 + 15.9% + 15.8% + 15.0% + 16.8%

Rennet Casein n.a. 8 902 8 902 8 884 n.a. n.a. 8 897 + 1.4% + 0.2% + 1.1% + 2.8%

Lactose n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

SMP n.a. 2 719 2 761 2 706 2 848 2 842 2 744 + 5.6% + 5.9% + 5.0% + 4.8% + 6.7% + 6.0%

WMP n.a. 3 242 3 262 3 244 3 342 3 412 3 272 + 13.9% + 13.1% + 13.9% + 11.8% + 15.2% + 18.3%

Source : GlobalDairyTrade (http://www.globaldairytrade.info/)

17 Feb 2015 1 € = 1.1297 $ (ECB rate)

in €/t Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15

Weighted

average price

AMF 3 790 3 829 3 837 3 858 3 884 3 818

Butter 3 359 3 387 3 395 3 488 3 384

BMP 2 368 2 363 2 367

Cheese 2 653 2 712 2 754 #VALUE! #VALUE! 2 704

MPC70 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

Rennet Casein 7 880 7 880 7 864 #VALUE! #VALUE! 7 875

Lactose 7 769

SMP 2 407 2 444 2 395 2 521 2 515 2 429

WMP 2 870 2 887 2 871 2 959 3 020 2 897

% change by contract from previous

auction

Results of the GDT event 134 of 17.02.2015

ANNEX 2

The effects of the Russian ban on the EU dairy exports.

European Commission

The effects of the Russian ban on the EU dairy exports.

Milk Market Observatory meeting

Brussels 24/02/2015

Methodology

EUROSTAT - Comext data

January 2015 estimations based on TAXUD -Surveillance data

EU28 exports to Third Countries of HS 0401 Milk and cream (1000€)

+1% Jan. 2015 on Dec.2014 -17% Jan. 2015 on Jan. 2014 +13% on the total period (Aug. 2014-Jan. 2015 on Aug. 2013-Jan. 2014)

Increase of EU28 exports to Third Countries of Milk HS 0401

China +50% Belarus +++ Saudi Arabia +22% Angola 5% Mauritania -8% Lybia +10% Hong Kong +10% UAE +22% Taiwan +6% Korea -13% Russia -96%

Untill Dec 2014 only

+0% Dec.2014 on Nov. 2014 +15% Dec.2014 on Dec.2013 +26% on the total period (Aug. 2014-Dec. 2014 on Aug. 2013- Dec 2013)

EU28 exports to Third Countries of HS 0402 10 SMP(1000€)

Increase of EU28 exports to Third Countries of SMP HS 0402 10

Algeria +119% China -18% Egypt +76% Nigeria +19% Indonesia -23% Malaysia +22% Thailand -19% Pakistan +638% SA +41% Hong Kong +20% Russia -96% Worth mentioning Banglasdesh, Mexico and Syria

+15% Dec.2014 on Nov. 2014 -19% Dec.2014 on Dec.2013 -22% on the total period (Aug. 2014-Dec. 2014 on Aug. 2013- Dec 2013)

EU28 exports to Third Countries of HS 0402 21 and 0402 29 WMP (1000€)

Untill Dec 2014 only

Increase of EU28 exports to Third Countries of WMP

Nigeria -24% Oman -33% Algeria -8% Hong Kong +65% Kuwait -36% Dominican Republic +8% Angola -25% Lebanon -6% SA -15% UAE 0% Russia -100% Worth mentioning China -60%

-3% Jan. 2015 on Dec.2014 -10% Jan. 2015 on Jan. 2014 -33% on the total period (Aug. 2014-Jan. 2015 on Aug. 2013-Jan. 2014)

EU28 exports to Third Countries of HS 0404 Whey (1000€)

Increase of EU28 exports to Third Countries of Whey (1000€)

China -24% Indonesia +21% Korea +5% Malaysia +14% Thailand +13% Japan +11% Pakistan -2% Philippines -40% New Zealand +3% Switzerland 0 Russia -100% Worth mentioning Morocco-58%

11% Jan. 2015 on Dec.2014 -1% Jan. 2015 on Jan. 2014 -3% on the total period (Aug. 2014-Jan. 2015 on Aug. 2013-Jan. 2014)

EU28 exports to Third Countries of HS 0405 Butter (1000€)

Increase of EU28 exports to Third Countries of Butter (1000€)

SA +224% US +108% Singapore -2% Uzbekistan +110% Turkey -20% China +83% Egypt +507% Lebanon +3% Indonesia +12% Morocco +189% Russia -100%

-11% Jan. 2015 on Dec.2014 -16% Jan. 2015 on Jan. 2014 -17% on the total period (Aug. 2014-Jan. 2015 on Aug. 2013-Jan. 2014)

ANNEX 3

Draft short-term prospects for EU dairy markets

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

1

Draft short-term prospects

for EU dairy markets

Milk market observatory

24 February 2015

Sophie Hélaine

European Commission

2

Outline

• Slaughterings and livestock survey

• The EU milk collection in the next months?

• 2015 and 2016 milk collection

• The balance sheets

2

The next STO is to be published the second week of March

3

Cow slaughterings up especially in EU-N13! Cumulated slaughterings since Sept 2014 vs 2013

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

EU

-28*

EU

-15*

EU

-N13

BE

BG

CZ

DK

DE

EE IE EL

ES

FR

HR

IT*

CY

LV

LT

LU

HU

MT

NL

AT

PL

PT

RO SI

SK FI

SE

UK

Sept-Nov Sept-Dec

+47%

4

Livestock survey % change in animal numbers Dec 2014 vs 2013

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

EU

-15*

EU

-N13*

EU

-28*

AT

BE

BG

CY

CZ

DE

DK

EE

EL

ES FI

FR

HR

HU IE IT LT

LU

LV

MT

NL

PL

PT

RO

SE SI

SK

UK

Dairy cows Heifers, 2 years or over, not for slaughter Heifers, 1 year, not for slaughter

+28% +28%

-23% -15%

+19% +66%

Source: Livestock survey, * average based on available data (UK, HU, HR, LV missing)

5

Huge break in deliveries not only in the countries still bound by quota

5

Unit: 1000 tonnes Source: Eurostat, AGEA for IT and FEGA for ES and DG AGRI forecast from Nov/Dec 2014

Fat content down in all MS

6

Only a small break in countries with a risk of high overshoot

6

Unit: 1000 tonnes Source: Eurostat, AGEA for IT and FEGA for ES and DG AGRI forecast from Nov/Dec 2014

In other countries no break or huge question marks???

?

7

Which milk collection in 2015 and 2016?

• An estimated reduction of milk deliveries in the first quarter, quota and price driven: -3%

• Followed by an increase after quota is abolished compared to 2014 (around +2.5% between Apr-Dec) because:

• Heifers are ready to enter into prod. in several MS

• No risk of super-levy anymore

• Willingness to take market shares

• Commodity prices started to rise already and this should continue

• Milk price to decrease further a few months before going up again

- Dry weather in NZ and Australia: prod. forecast decreasing

- Increase in US production for 2015 quite limited

• Demand for dairy products…

• 2015 milk deliveries +1.2% compared to 2016

• What next? towards a stabilisation of markets, no further increase in milk deliveries

8

2014: exploding SMP production and exports but where did the fat go?

2014f Prod. 2014/13 Exports 2014/13

Deliveries 147.6 Mt +4.5%

Cheese 9.8 Mt +1.6% 721 000 t -8%

Butter 2.2 Mt +3.3% 137 000 t +18%

SMP 1,37 Mt +24% 647 000 t +59%

WMP 780 000 t +7.2% 389 000 t +4%

Whey p. 2.1 Mt +4.4% 570 000 t -2%

FDP 47.3 Mt +0.4% 730 000 t +27%

Fat residual +15% !!! Protein residual +9%

FFMP export +23% Food prep. for infant f. +9%

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development forecast, publication in March at http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/markets-and-prices/short-term-outlook/

http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/markets-and-prices/short-term-outlook/
















9

2015: always more SMP

2015f Prod. 2015/14 Exports 2015/14

Deliveries 149.3 Mt +1.2%

Cheese 9.9 Mt +1.2% 757 000 t +5%

Butter 2.3 Mt +2.6% 149 000 t +9%

SMP 1,47 Mt +7.7% 744 000 t +15%

WMP 798 000 t +2.3% 397 000 t +2%

Whey p. 2.2 Mt +3.4% 570 000 t 0%

FDP 47.6 Mt +0.6% 839 000 t +15%

Fat residual +3.2% Protein residual -1.6%


















10

2016: towards a stabilisation of dairy markets

2016f Prod. 2016/15

Exports 2015/14

Deliveries +0.1%

Cheese +0.5% +7%

Butter +0.2% +10%

SMP +0.8% +8%

WMP -0.5% -2.5%

FDP +0.3% +15%


















11

Change in ending stocks???

2014 2015 2016

Butter +25 +20 -20

SMP +18 +27 -30

Cheese 60 -40 -20


















12

For further information

• STO http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/markets-and-prices/short-term-outlook/index_en.htm

• MTO http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/markets-and-prices/medium-term-outlook/index_en.htm

• OECD-FAO Outlook http://www.oecd.org/site/oecd-faoagriculturaloutlook/

http://www.compareyourcountry.org/chart?cr=ch&cr1=mk&lg=en&project=agricultural-outlook&page=1

12

Thank you

http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/markets-and-prices/short-term-outlook/index_en.htm









http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/markets-and-prices/medium-term-outlook/index_en.htm

















ANNEX 4

EU dairy products monthly stock situation

EDA

EU dairy products monthly stock situation

Milk Market Observatory

Economic Board

February 24th, 2015

Gérard CALBRIX

Director Economic Affairs

ATLA

ANNEX 5

Perspectives from the Dairy Trade

Eucolait

Perspectives from the Dairy

Trade

Milk Market Observatory Meeting

24 February 2015

Outline

• Global Supply

• Global Exports

• Global Demand

• Global Stocks

• Conclusions

Global Supply

-2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

Combined evolution

USA

EU

Australia

New Zealand

Uruguay

Argentina

Comparing milk production in 2014 with 2013 January - December (partly estimated for Q4 - 2014 data)

'000 tonnes

+ 3,7% GROWTH RATE 14/13

Global Supply

-500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Combined evolution

USA

EU

Australia

New Zealand

Uruguay

Argentina

Comparing Q4-2014 milk production with Q4-2013 for the major dairy exporting countries (partly estimated for Q4 data)

Q4 Q3 '000 tonnes

- 5,4% in Q4

+ 1,8% in Q4

+ 3,6% in Q4

+ 2,6% in Q4

+ 2,1% in Q4

+ 3,4% in Q4

+ 2,4% in Q4

Global Supply - Outlook

EU milk production slowing down further in Q1 2015, perhaps on par with 2014 levels. What will happen after 1 April?

US production continues strong, 2015 forecast +2,8%

NZ production up 2,7% so far this season (June-January) but announced drought and lower milk price will have an impact

Australian production up 2,6% (July-December), forecast for the whole season remains +2% due to hot and dry summer

Outline

• Global Supply

• Global Exports

• Global Demand

• Global Stocks

• Conclusions

Global Exports

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

MONTHLY EXPORTS (EU+USA+NZ+AUS+ARG+URU)

SMP WMP WHEY CHEESE

BUTTER Linear (SMP) Linear (WMP) Linear (WHEY)

Met

ric

Ton

ne

s

SMP Exports

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

MONTHLY CUMULATED GLOBAL SMP EXPORTS ('000 tonnes)

EU NZ US Aus ARG Uru

WMP Exports

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

MONTHLY CUMULATED GLOBAL WMP EXPORTS ('000 tonnes)


Whey Exports

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

MONTHLY CUMULATED GLOBAL WHEY EXPORTS ('000 tonnes)

EU US Aus ARG

Butter Exports

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

MONTHLY CUMULATED GLOBAL BUTTER EXPORTS ('000 tonnes)


Cheese Exports

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

MONTHLY CUMULATED GLOBAL CHEESE EXPORTS ('000 tonnes)


Outline

• Global Supply

• Global Exports

• Global Demand

• Global Stocks

• Conclusions

China Imports

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

MONTHLY CUMULATED GLOBAL IMPORTS ('000 tonnes)

WMP SMP WHEY LACTOSE CHEESE BUTTER AMF CASEIN(ATES)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

51 44 176

325 318 403

618 670

CHINA - WMP IMPORTS 1000 Tonnes

Russia Imports

Algeria Imports

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

MONTHLY CUMULATED GLOBAL IMPORTS combined EU+US+NZ

('000 tonnes)

WMP SMP WHEY CHEESE BUTTER AMF

US Imports

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

MONTHLY CUMULATED GLOBAL IMPORTS ('000 tonnes)

CHEESE BUTTER

Global Demand

Some early signs of demand recovery in China

Russian imports affected by Embargo

Demand in other key regions (S-E Asia, Northern Africa, Middle East, Latin America) driven by lower prices

US increased imports of cheese and butter

Outline

• Global Supply

• Global Exports

• Global Demand

• Global Stocks

• Conclusions

Global Stocks

We hear:

Stocks have increased in most regions as trade has not grown in line with supply

EU: stocks on the high side but not concerningly high

USA: SMP (NDM) stocks higher, cheese and butter stocks slightly higher than a year ago

Oceania: close to normal, somewhat higher for most products in Q4 2014 vs 2013, in particular WMP

Latin America: stocks low

Outline

• Global Supply

• Global Exports

• Global Demand

• Global Stocks

• Conclusions

Conclusions

Contraction in output growth

Improvement in global demand stimulated by lower prices

EU exports performing well, helped by weak €

Market sentiment is firming

Will EU and US spring flush lead to cool down?

Thank You

Eucolait

www.eucolait.eu

[email protected]

Sources used in presentation: GTIS, EU Commission, USDA, Dairy Australia, DCANZ, Fonterra, Clal, Inale

http://www.eucolait.eu/

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