Land[scapeLand[scape] Vulnerability ] Vulnerability & Resilience: & Resilience:

B. L. Turner IIClark University

Where we are and where we may go before we got there.Where we are and where we may go before we got there.

2007 Science 314: 1696-1704

NRC for NSF

Land use and land cover dynamics

www.globallandproject.org

T3.1T3.1--3:3: Sustainable Land ArchitectureSustainable Land Architecture

Resilience Alliance & Network Resilience Alliance & Network Resilience ScienceResilience Science

SocialSocial--ecological system + Resilienceecological system + Resilience

GLP (IGBPGLP (IGBP--IHDP + ESSP) IHDP + ESSP) Land Change/System ScienceLand Change/System Science

Sustainability Science (AAAS + NAS + ESSP)Sustainability Science (AAAS + NAS + ESSP)

Coupled HumanCoupled Human--Environment System + Vulnerability (Resilience)Environment System + Vulnerability (Resilience)

Sustainability Science Sustainability Science coupled HE or SE systemcoupled HE or SE system•• xxxxxxxx•• xxxxxxxx•• LCSLCS•• VulnerabilityVulnerability•• Sustainable Land ArchitectureSustainable Land Architecture

Coupled HE/SE SystemCoupled HE/SE System

Human SS

Biophysical SS

Event:HazardPerturbationDisturbanceStress/stressor

ExposureExposure SensitivitySensitivity ResilienceResilienceCoping CapacityCoping Capacity

Exogenous/externalExogenous/external

Endogenous/internalEndogenous/internal

Coupled HE/SE SystemCoupled HE/SE System

Human SS

Biophysical SS

Event:HazardPerturbationDisturbanceStress/stressor

ExposureExposure SensitivitySensitivity ResilienceResilienceCoping CapacityCoping Capacity

Political Economy as cause of---no coupled system

System abstractions—provenuse more for env. subsystem

Conservation Biology/LCLUCConsequences—first tier links to H SS

Cutter et al. 2000. Annals AAG

Place-based vul.

• No. of LCLUC or GLP studies directed to vulnerability are few.– A structural reason; change must

take place

Luers et al. 2003

• No. of studies directed to resilience are more common but not directed to the coupled system & not land necessarily based.

• Many studies that could be reshaped to address vulnerability.

Pielke 2005 & Marshal et al. 2004

Land change surface sensible & latent heat flux with specific impacts on afternoon sea breeze fronts marked changes in spatial distribution & amount (↓) of July-Aug precipitation + increase in diurnal temp. cycle

High frequency

Low frequency

Fire Frequency summaryYucatan Peninsula

2000-2006

Zoh Laguna Annual Precipitation

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Year

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Zoh Laguna Annual Precipitation

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J. Rogan & SYPR Project

DrivesOf LandChange&DisturbancesOf Land Systems

Land-Use Intensity & Frequency

Forest Cut Cultivation

Biomass Burning& Bracken Fern

Soil Nutrients & Water

[regional & local scales]

Area & Intensity of Deciduousness

SurfaceTemperature

Fire Scare& Burn Frequency

Loss of Biotic Diversity

Reduced Crop & Forest Productivity

Reduced Resistance to Catastrophic Fire

Outcomes to be avoided

# = Hypothesis in text

#3.1

#2.1 & 2.2

#1.3

#1.2

#1.1

Fig. 3: Hypotheses Linking Resilience-Vulnerability of Ecosystem Services to “Outcomes-to-Avoided”

In SpeciesBehavior

Landscape Level Biotic

Diversity

RegionalClimateChange

ForestDeciduous-

ness

ForestFragmen-

tation

FernInvasion

Short-lived

ForestSpp.

NutrientCycling

FarmgatePrice

CropYields &Damage

LivestockWater

Catastrophic Forest Fire Biodiversity

Loss

Carbon Stock

Reduction

ReducedHousehold

Subsistence& Income

ClimateChange

Population

Market

CBR +NeoliberalPolicies

ForestCut Cultivate

BiomassBurn

Land-UseIntensity &Frequency

Hurricanes

LivelihoodDiversity

Long-termBiophysicalhazards

Near-termsocioecon.hazards

Potential harm to system Vulnerabilities of biophysical subsystems of concern to

CBR, MBC, & Mundo Maya

Vulnerabilities of socioeconomic subsystem at household level

Fig. 2: Coupled System Vulnerability to Hazards in SYPR

Lawrence et al. 2004

Sustainable Sustainable Land Land

ArchitectureArchitecture

Spatial Congruence Spatial Congruence of of 6 Ecosystem Services 6 Ecosystem Services and and BiodiversityBiodiversity

Chan et al. 2006. PLOS Biology 4: 2138-2152

Does a focus on conservation-preservation of biodiversity alone yield best results for other ecosystem services?

Spatial Congruence of 6 Ecosystem Spatial Congruence of 6 Ecosystem Services and BiodiversityServices and Biodiversity

[Because]…benefits [of ecosystem services] vary in the scale of their operation and dependence on habitat, [with dramatic affect on] simultaneous management for multiple services.

Protecting [locations] selected for their biodiversity value is not likely to maximize protection for the full suite of benefits unless [changes in biodiversity priorities].

[Benefits] are more easily met if demand occurs at broad scales and supply varies considerably at local to regional scales. [e.g, carbon storage]

[In the reverse] spatial mismatches are exacerbated and [benefits] may be more difficult to achieve. [e.g., water]

Chan et al. 2006. PLOS Biology 4: 2138-2152

food production tourist attraction

pollination

carbon sequestrationflood protection

water purification

slope stability

biodiversity

recreation

beauty

fibre production

fodder production

stabilising micro-climate

fire prevention

shelter for life stockgame reserve

EEcosystemcosystem (Environmental?) Goods & Services(Environmental?) Goods & Services

From: MEA

Towards Governance of Global Terrestrial Surface

www.fs.fed.us/pnw/fia/maps/pages/OwnershipofF...

http://atlas.nrcan.gc.ca/site/english/maps/environment/forest/forestcanada/landcover http://www.ga.gov.au/education/facts/images/tenure1.gif

Area and pattern ofsame land uses and covers

win-win?

• SS is the next multiple decadal orientation of climate-global change and development science.

• LCLUC-GLP poised to become foundational to sustainability science (SS)

• Vulnerability & especially sustainable land architecture are critical themes.