landscape approaches to future forest and tree resources management
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Landscape Approaches to Future Forest and Tree Resources Management IUFRO-FORNESSA Meeting, Nairobi, June 2012TRANSCRIPT
Photo: INBAR China
Landscape Approaches to Future Forest and Tree Resources Management
IUFRO-FORNESSA Meeting, Nairobi, June 2012
Tony Simons, Director General, ICRAF
With contributions from:Meine van Noordwijk, Peter Minang, Valentina Robiglio,
Keith Shepherd, Anja Gassner and Ravi Prabhu
Abdou Salam OuedraogoAbdou Salam Ouedraogo1957 1957 -- 20002000
1. What is a landscape?
2. A Portrait of Forests and Trees
3. What problems are we tackling?
4. Landscape Approaches
Landscape Approaches with Forest and Trees
Landscape comprises the visible features of an area of land, including:
• physical elements of landforms such as mountains, water bodies, vegetation
• human elements including different forms of land use, buildings and structures, and
• transitory elements such as lighting and weather conditions.
(from Wikipedia, 2012)
1. What is a Landscape?
1. What is a Landscape? (cont.)
5th Century - landscaef (England) & landscahft (Germany)- small administrative units of land (natural and human made)
16th Century - Dutch painter’s term (Bruegel)- bird’s eye viewpoint of Flemish countryside
1930s - domain of geography, subset of region (Hartshorne)
1970s - transition of natural to human landscapes- Meinig combined the physical and human perceptions
"landscapes are not only what lies before our eyes but what lies within our heads."
1. Recent political exposure
Rio - 20 (Stockholm , Earth Summit, 1972)
Rio (Rio de Janiero, UNCED, 1992)
MDGs (New York, UN General Assembly, 2000)
Rio +10 (Johannesburg, WSSD, 2002)
Rio +20 (Rio de Janiero, UNCSD, 2012)
0
(1)
0
0
0
Agriculture - 6 mentions
Forest - 35 mentions
Land Manag/Degrad - 12 mentions
Take concrete steps to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies
Restore 150 million ha of deforested and degraded lands by 2020
Secure water supply by protect biod, ecosystems and water sources
Rio Dialogues
10,000 ideas from civil society
Clustered to top 100 actions
1.3 million voted on-line
66.1%
34.6%
34.2%
(Landscape)
(Close your eyes)
Integrate SegregateAgroforests
Fields, Forests & Parks
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2. A Portrait of Forests and Trees
Choosing a forest definition
for the Clean Development MechanismFORESTS AND CLIMATE CHANGE WORKING PAPER 4 – 2006
http://www.fao.org/forestry/media/11280/1/0/
For the CDM, developing countries must choose the parameter values from the ranges: “Forest” is a minimum area of land of 0.05-1.0 hectares with tree crown cover (or equivalent stocking level) of more than 10-30 per cent with trees with the potential to reach a minimum height of 2-5 meters at maturity in situ.
% tree crown cover
Opportunity for
incremental carbon(t/ha)
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
50
40
30
20
10
The relationship between tree crown cover and abilityto add extra carbon looks something like this.
% crown cover
Opportunity for
incremental carbon(t/ha)
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
50
40
30
20
10
Lower and upper limits for CDM A/R
National governments can set theirforest definition as tree cover minimum threshold between 10% and 30%
% crown cover
Opportunity for
incremental carbon(t/ha)
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
50
40
30
20
10
Avoided deforestation at 30%
Aff/Reforestationat 30%
ARat
10%
Avoided deforestation at 10%
REDD
CDM A/R
6700 km2 = 2.8% of land area 36,000 km2 = 14.9% of land area
10% 20%
30%
69,300 km2 = 28.6% of land area
Implications of forest definition 1-A/R Uganda
Zomer et al. 2008
Land suitable for CDM Afforestation according to tree canopy cover as forest definition
% increase from 10-30%
Difference(hectares)
Cote d’Ivoire 1583% 7.7 million
Ghana 1063% 6.8 million
Nigeria 446% 19.5 million
….are included under forest, as are areas normally forming part of the forest area which are temporarily
unstocked as a result of human intervention such as harvesting or
natural causes but which are expected to revert to forest;
[FCCC/CP/2001/13/Add.1]
Any signs of deforestation?
Adams J.M. & Faure H. (1997) (ed.s), QEN members. Review and Atlas of Palaeovegetation: Preliminary land ecosystem maps of the world since the Last Glacial Maximum. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, TN,
Adams J.M. & Faure H. (1997) (ed.s), QEN members. Review and Atlas of Palaeovegetation: Preliminary land ecosystem maps of the world since the Last Glacial Maximum. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, TN,
The foresters’ view of the world
The agroforestry view of the world
The integrated view of the world
Global tree cover inside and outside forest, according to the Global Land Cover 2000 dataset, the FAO spatial data on farms versus forest, and the analysis by Zomer et al. (2009)
Guiding Paradigms
31
Spatial analysis: classification of 450 districts in Indonesia according to 7 tree cover transition stages (Dewi et al., in prep.)
Forest Use Class % area Loss during 2000-2005
t C ha-1 yr-1 % yr-1 % total emissions
Protected Forest 26.7% 2.01 0.90% 20%
Production Forest 31.8% 3.28 1.80% 39%
Convertible 9.6% 3.07 1.87% 11%
“Non-forest” 31.9% 2.57 3.33% 30%
TOTAL 2.69 1.70
Indonesia’s forest loss by land-use category
(Source http://www.worldagroforestrycentre.org/sea/ALLREDDI)
Arthropods64.5%
Plants - 14.3%
Vertebrates - 2.7%
Algae - 2.4%Fungi - 4.2%Nematodes - 0.9%
Protozoans - 2.4%
Molluscs - 4.2%
Viruses - 0.3% Bacteria - 0.2%Other invert - 3.9%
Source: I. Koziell (2001) Diversity not Adversity, IIED, 58pp
Number of described species for major groups of organisms as proportions of global total
25% are woody species
A. Trees for Products
B. Trees for Services
fruit firewood medicine income sawnwood fodder
soilfertility
carbon sequestration
soilerosion
watershedprotection
shade biodiversity
Tree Products and Tree Services
• Increased production of timber and fuelwood on-farm and in rotational wood-lots can potentially reduce emissions from forest degradation especially in instances of restricted access to forests or limited supply in “open access” forests.
Traditional Medicine in Sub-Saharan Africa80% of people use traditional medicine
3. What problems are we tackling?
Los Angeles city commuters
Cairo City populace
Developing countriesrural poor/hungry
Differentiated problems? or interlinked global challenges?
0 1 10 100 1000
Log Scale Time (years)
Temporal ScaleEcosystem processes
Lifespan timber tree
Lifespan atmosph CO2
Human lifespan
Time to project impact
Project duration
Cropping season
Political Term
Adjudicated Land
Adjudicated under the Land Adjudication Act CAP 284 1968, intensive smallholder cultivation with clear freehold title
Unadjudicated Land
Unadjudicated land, no firm legal title
Economic, Environmental and Social Impacts Unadjud Freehold Tenure
Effect Net returns to land ($ ha-1 y-1) $126 $288 2.28 Woody crops, woodlots etc (ha km-2) 5.4 25.6 4.7 Hedgerows (km km-2) 5.2 23.6 4.5 Social cost from embedding -$40 $30 $70 Social "tax" -32% +10%
(Norton-Griffiths et al., 2012)
Redirecting development pathways towards environmental integrity
Positive incentives are needed to reward rural poor for the environmental services they can/do provide
World Bank (2012) World Bank, Washington, 118p.
The amount of support that govtswill need to provide by the year 2030 to enable farmers to implement SLM practices are projected at:
US $20 billion in Africa, US $41 billion in Latin America, US $131 billion in Asia.
Basic problemThere is a lack of coherent and rigorous sampling and assessment frameworks that enable comparison of data (i.e. meta-studies) across a wide range of environmental conditions ... and scales
Quantification and systematic monitoring are essential to understand and manage trade-offs among ecosystem services and know where are the tipping points
Land Health Surveillance
Towards evidence-based decision makingfor sustainable agricultural intensification
Concepts, methods, technology, protocols, & tools to help apply the type of scientific rigour that exists in public health surveillance to measurement and management of agro-ecosystem health at multiple scales
Vagen
Land Health - the capacity of land to sustain delivery of essential ecosystem services (the benefits people obtain from ecosystems)
Surveillance scienceLand health metrics
Consistent field protocol
Soil spectroscopyCoupling with remote sensingPrevalence, Risk factors, Digital mapping
Sentinel sites Randomized sampling schemes
Ethiopia Soil Information System
EthioSIS is adopting a new, innovative technological approach that allows for quick, high-resolution coverage of the country, combining remote sensing data and ground tests
Mapping soil carbon stocks in landscapes
Soil organic carbon stocks within a 10 x 10 km sentinel site in western Kenya mapped by statistical modelling of ground data to satellite spectral bands
The effect of cloud is masked as no data 56
UNEP Carbon Benefits Project: Measurement tools
4. Landscape approaches
C55H72O5N4Mg
Biomolecules in Green Development
Chlorophyll
LANDSCAPE CONCEPT AND LANDSCAPE APPROACH
landscapes as spatially heterogeneous geographic areas characterized by diverse interacting patches or ecosystemsLandscape approach is necessary to deal at the same time with production, biodiversity, ecosystem services and functions, livelihoods strategies, policy and institutions across scales. The landscape approach is particularly valuable to create an understanding in the complex (competing) interrelationships between resource use and users across scales.
Livelihoods strategies
Production
Ecosystem services Biodiversity
Carbon sink and sequestration
Institutions
policy System resilience
HUMAN LANDSCAPES
Land units as non-interacting aggregates
Economic or social synergies not accommodated
Social processes across land uses ignored or aggregated
Ghazoul, ISPC Meeting, 2011)
REDD+
plus what?
People?Water?Biodiversity?Landscape?
The Challenges of REDD1. Market alone won’t solve deforestation problem2. Carbon only part of picture (water, habitat, biodiversity, services) 3. MRV needs to be independent of government4. Handling cross-sectoral/ministerial issues5. Controversy over rights to pollute, displacement of emissions6. Opportunism of carbon cowboys7. Definition and inclusion problems of tree, forest8. Asynchronous forest laws, agrarian reform, land tenure9. Land-use/land-cover conundrum10. Bundling protection forest, production forest, conversion forest, (non-forest)11. REDD is only partial accounting12. Low capacity/compliance of fpic, indigenous rights, social safeguards13. Baselines versus reference levels14. Emissions embedded in trade15. Stock:emission rate ratios are lowering (time pressure to act)16. All actors believe most finance should go to them
MAIN ACTORS % Finance
National Governments 90%
Brokers/Investors 90%
MRV, compliance 90%
Implementers, Managers, NGOs 90%
Stewards, communities 90%
TOTAL 450%
ACTORS and FINANCING
MAIN ACTORS % Finance
National Governments 25%
Brokers/Investors 15%
MRV, compliance 15%
Implementers, Managers, NGOs 20%
Stewards, communities 25%
TOTAL 100%
ACTORS and FINANCING (cont.)
MAIN ACTORS % Finance Source of Finance
National Governments 25% ODA
Brokers/Investors 15% Market
MRV, compliance 15% Market
Implementers, Managers, NGOs 20% Market
Stewards, communities 25% ODA
TOTAL 100%
ACTORS and FINANCING (cont.)
- 50:50 financed by market and ODA - MRV independent of Govt- Govt and communities less vulnerable- Govts need to function for market to trust them
• Agroforestry, Afforestation and Reforestation can be part of REDD+ depending on the definition of forest in a given country
Ellison D, Futter MN, Bishop K, 2011.On the forest cover–water yield debate: from demand- to supply-side thinking. Global Change Biology, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02589.x
37%
% of rainfall derived from ‘short cycle’ terrestrial origins(recalculated from Basilovich et al.)
68%58% 30%
40%41% 46% 22%
42%
1) Mackenzie river basin, 2) Mississippi river basin, 3) Amazon river basin, 4) West Afri-ca, 5) Baltics, 6) Tibet, 7) Siberia, 8) GAME (GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment) and 9) Huaihe river
basin.
Approximately a third comes from ‘local’
sources
Global circulation patterns of humidity in the atmosphere suggsts a strong link between West Africfan rainfall and the recycling of rain-fall back to the atmosphere in East Africa & Nile basin; this suggests very different geopolitics to carbon-based global climate negotiations
van der Ent RJ, Savenije HHG, Schaefli B, Steele‐ Dunne SC, 2010. Origin and fate of atmospheric moisture over continents. Water Resources Research 46, W09525,
Keys PW, van der Ent RJ, Gordon LJ, Hoff H, Nikoli R and Savenije HHG, 2012. Analyzing precipitationsheds to understand the vulnerability of rainfall dependent regions, Biogeosciences, 9, 733–746
Dryland agricultural areas where more than 50% of rainfall is derived from terrestrial recycling
Sahel
0
50
100
150
200
250
1
937
1
942
1
947
1
952
1
957
1
962
1
967
1
972
1
977
1
982
1
987
1
992
1
997
2
002
Ring
wid
th in
dex
50
70
90
110
130
150
Rain
y se
ason
pre
c. (m
m)
Ring w idthRain season prec.
Year Three ‘drought’ indicators: Ringwidth C12/C13 carbon isotope ratiops indicative of stomatal closure O16/O18 oxygen isotope ratios indicative of stomatal closure + ocean/terrestrial origin of rainfall
Enhanced EL means increased precipitation
Empirical data: research by Aster Gebrekirstos c.s. showed intra-annual variation in O16/O18 ratio in growth rings in the Sa-hel, indicative of ‘short cycle’ rain in 2nd partof growing sea-son
Tree Species Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Avocado
Citrus
Parinari curatellifolia
Mangoes
Uapaca kirkiana
Strychnos cocculoides
Syzygium cordatum
Annona seneghalesis
Azanza garckeana
Flacourtia indica
Vangueria infausta
Vitex doniana
Adansonia digitata
Ziziphus mauritiana
0
20
40
60
80
100N
o.
of
household
s f
acin
g s
hort
age
Zambia
MalawiHungry/cropping
season
Harvest/off-
season
New Cultivar Development (Uapaca kirkiana)
Earlier fruiting, bigger fruits, heavy fruit loads, smaller trees and uniform quality
A superior cultivar (fruited after 4 yrs.)
Variations
Palopo Cocoa Centre, Sulawesi
Case Study: Cocoa Rehabilitation
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10
Pod Number
Trunk Circumference
Pod Number & Wet Bean Weight
Witches’ Broom Resistance
Pod Weight
Frosty Pod Resistance & Wet Bean Weight
Bean Length
Jorquette Height
Frosty Pod Resistance
Bean Length, Seed Weight,Ovule Number, & Trunk Circumference
Black Pod
Bean Weight, Bean Thickness, Pod Weight & Pod Length
~40 identified QTLsin cacao
- Resolution 30m x 30m- Based on 280 (56 x 5) ground truthed cocoa locations- Maximum likelihood classifier spectral landcover reflectance probability using ENVI
Project Project Vision for ChangeVision for Change (V4C)(V4C)
First flowers after 5 months First pod at 9 months
Capacity building and mobilisation: State of our national partners HQ in Abidjan, August 2011
A growing on-farm domestic timber sector in Cameroon (Ghana, Sri Lanka, Kenya????)…
81
Once SSL production is included the overall value of national timber production doubles!
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
2000 2005 2010
Mill
ions
m3
Official productionSSL informal production
Robiglio, V. et al. 2011. Submitted to Small Scale Forestry .
eastern
western
Fort Tenan
FFAOFAOFFAOFAO
Components:Components:1. Global Review 2. International Forum (March 12-16, 2012)3. Action and Advocacy
To strengthen CGIAR’s impact; in the past our research activities were not usually based on a common set of research instruments, and long term horizon
Initial selection of 6 landscapes in Africa, Latin America, South East Asia
Selection driven by CRP6 research hypothesis
Cross regional comparison Standard network protocols & data sharing
policies Long term presence Platform for co-locating research
Sentinel landscapes –CGIAR long-term research network under CRP6