landcor residential sales summary for bc in 2012

7/29/2019 Landcor residential sales summary for BC in 2012

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Landcor - 2013 Residential Sales Summary March 12th, 2013

Learn more about the data services that we offer www.landcor.com

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ty years ago, Rudy Nielsen drove a costly ront-end loader into aorting yard mudpit and sank it. Rudys no ool and he did it on direct

rders rom his boss: Mr. Telord. Rudy, the loader, Mr. Telord andudys job survived because Mr. Telord knew that he had explicitlyrdered the risky task and didnt shirk responsibility. He made aecovery plan, executed it, ate the costs and learned his lesson.

ne could learn a lot rom guys like Telord: condence balancedy airness, over-reaching responsibility, real leadership and notlaming others or ones own decisions when these decisions go sour.ssess the problem, buckle down, remedy or mitigate the damage asciently and quickly as possible.

n apt analogy or what now aces BC, Canada, and the world.

ut that approach is all too rare. The classic human response: When inanger/when in doubt/run in circles/scream and shout.

ocally, provincially, nationally, globally, were heading into interestingmes, the daunting reality o what decades ago was scienticpeculation and warnings and have now become certainties,ctualities. Arguably the biggest, most invasive, systemic problem:imate change and its knock-on eects. Likely its too late to avoid

he tipping point and maintain the environmental status quo buthat doesnt mean one gives up. Like Telord however, this meansssuming responsibility and taking action, even when doomsayersredict utures as dark as soot, as inevitable as the tide. (More abouthis, later.)

n what Ecocentric online magazine calls the scariest environmentalact in the world, in 2011 China burned 3.8 billion tons o coal, almostouble the 1.5 billion tons sent up in sooty smoke in 2000. (Excludehina and global per annum consumption o coal remained relativelyat; 3.8 billion tons in 2000 rising slightly to 4.3 billion tons in 2011.)

n turn, the International Energy Agency says that by 2017, India coulde importing as much coal as China.

ven as North America and Europe cuts coal use, thanks largely toougher pollution laws, racking and the rise o natural gas, Chinand similar developing nations do the cheap and cheerul economicsnd instead reach or the coal scuttles and gigatons o carbon.

ompared to green energy, coal is cheap to mine and export. Itsso absolute hell on the lungs and environment when not thoroughlyombusted; coal is estimated to account or 20 per cent o globalreenhouse gas emissions with an extra nasty: insidious soot particles.

oal is made up o 70 to 90 percent carbon. Burning it releases carbonioxide, a major greenhouse gas. It also releases something scientistsow cite as perhaps even more problematic: soot.

Carbon dioxide can be absorbed by oceans and living vegetation; is more hardy, to the point o unriendly. It literally sticks to itsel

doesnt easily decompose or absorb. Instead, foating high and driar, soot begrimes lungs and northern ice elds alike, each tiny bparticle is eternal. In the wild, they act like tiny solar stills to trap hmelt snow, thaw methane-lled permarost, expose long-buried that in turns heats up in a cascade eect, raising global temperat. . . and sea levels.

Metallurgical and thermal coal is BCs largest single export commo$5.6 billion in revenues on 26.6 million tonnes, 4,000 direct and bneeded, high-paying jobs in remote BC communities. BC currehas 10 mines in production with another 10 in various stageexploration, permits and proposals.

In the last decade, BC coal production hasnt varied much values bounded six-old since 2004. As coal prices rise, so doenvironmental, economic and political lures and conundrums. AsVancouver Sunace reporter Larry Pynn notes in a recent article, cnotoriety as the dirtiest ossil uel is staining the BC governme

climate-change initiatives. However, BC needs that income . . . ethough BC coal helps raise ocean levels and literally sink uture voin low-lying areas o the province.

Even i BC took the painul high ground and did stop exporting coasay Chinas inecient mills and urnaces, other coal-exporters sas Australia or Indonesia would happily scoop up the business andbillions in yuans.

Here in BC, were caught between the (pay) dirt and the deep, notblue seas. Much o the province sits high and craggy above the wline. But, the most populous part the Lower Mainland does no

In 2011, in anticipation o a predicted 1.2-meter rise in sea levels the next 100 years, the BC government set new guidelines ordikes in coastal food-risk zones. For a culture not inclined to thingenerations, a century is a lot o dawdling time. Others believe the

British Columbia 2012

Residential Sales SummaryThe Landcor Report March 12th, 2013

1% change 2011 - 2012 2% change 2010- 2012

BC 2012 2011 % Chg1 2010 % Chg2

Number of Sales 87,383 96,724 -9.66% 100,970 -13.46%

Total Value of Sales $43.16B $50.92B -15.2% $47.51B -9.15%

Detached Average $491,033 $526,494 -6.74% $489,284 0.36%Median $475,000 $506,000 -6.13% $485,000 -2.06%

CondoAverage $319,128 $332,198 -3.93% $323,224 -1.27%

Median $317,000 $328,700 -3.56% $320,000 -0.94%

AttachedAverage $360,412 $377,353 -4.49% $370,082 -2.61%

Median $349,809 $367,000 -4.68% $363,000 -3.63%

012 Undercurrents - Its Not All About Us

Quarterly Sales Counts/ BC All

Quarterly Median Sales Prices/ BC All


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Gr. Vancouver 2012 2011 % Chg1 2010 % C

Number of Sales 40,229 48,917 -17.76% 48,355 -16.8

Total Value of Sales $27.33B $35.14B -22.3% $29.99B -8.8

DetachedAverage $835,350 $854,292 -2.22% $753,639 10.8

Median $768,000 $778,000 -1.29% $696,500 10.2

CondoAverage $368,365 $379,633 -2.97% $363,607 1.3

Median $359,532 $365,000 -1.50% $353,900 1.5

Attached

Average $454,335 $472,616 -3.87% $449,811 1.0

Median $429,000 $461,341 -7.01% $434,000 -1.1

1% change 2011- 2012 2% change 2010- 2012 3% change month to previous m

Gr. Van. Monthly Oct. Nov. % Chg3 Dec. % C

Number of Sales 2,955 3,100 4.91% 2,094.00 -29.1


DetachedAverage $816,963 $818,930 0.24% $828,044 1.3

Median $756,000 $745,000 -1.46% $762,500 0.8

CondoAverage $382,690 $363,288 -5.07% $344,672 -9.9

Median $375,400 $352,000 -6.23% $332,032 -11.5

AttachedAverage $457,074 $445,880 -2.45% $430,412 -5.8

Median $442,900 $418,000 -5.62% $408,950 -7.6

Vancouver Island 2012 2011 % Chg1 2010 % C

Number of Sales 14,507 15,734 -7.80% 17,632 -17.72


DetachedAverage $400,610 $406,872 -1.54% $416,017 -3.7

Median $400,044 $408,000 -1.95% $416,000 -3.84

CondoAverage $253,057 $263,556 -3.98% $278,878 -9.2

Median $255,000 $269,900 -5.52% $262,600 -9.7


Median $312,500 $335,000 -6.72% $335,000 -6.72

Van. Island Monthly Oct. Nov. % Chg3 Dec. % C

Number of Sales 1,188 1,129 -4.97% 789.00 -33.5

Total Value of Sales $446.35M $429.84M -3.70% $273.93M -38.6

Detached

Average $406,991 $385,675 -5.24% $377,312 -7.2

Median $400,000 $390,000 -2.50% $380,000 -5

CondoAverage $264,054 $254,264 -3.71% $242,140 -8.3

Median $265,532 $258,327 -2.71% $256,917 -3.2


Median $315,000 $269,961 -14.3% $287,462 -8.

Okanagan 2012 2011 % Chg1 2010 % C

Number of Sales 11,347 12,993 -13.7% 13,823 -18.

Total Value of Sales $3.77B $4.40B -16.7% $4.54B -19.

DetachedAverage $375,755 $382,951 -1.4% $369,829 2.

Median $375,000 $382,000 -1.8% $372,000 0.

CondoAverage $210,940 $261,791 -12.6% $264,180 -13.

Median $212,000 $255,000 -12.5% $260,000 -14.

AttachedAverage $279,820 $295,106 -5.2% $290,257 -3.

Median $283,000 $295,500 -4.2% $285,619 -0.

Okanagan Monthly Oct. Nov. % Chg3 Dec. % C

Number of Sales 1,000 874 -12.60% 516 -48.4

Total Value of Sales $340.37M $277.73M -18.40% $161.27M -52.6

DetachedAverage $381,577 $356,547 -6.56% $360,002 -5.6

Median $380,000 $360,000 -5.26% $360,000 -5.2

CondoAverage $237,632 $203,076 -14.54% $207,683 -12.6

Median $233,000 $205,750 -11.70% $200,000 -14.1

AttachedAverage $280,132 $290,713 3.78% $258,286 -7.8

Median $282,709 $299,650 5.99% $279,000 -11.9

ill be much sooner, within 50 or even 20 years, within the lietimemost readers.

could be much worse too.

s reported in The Vancouver Sun, the Organisation or Economic Co-peration and Development (OECD) puts Metro Vancouver as 15th one global risk list in terms o assets, with $55 billion on the (water)ble and 32nd in terms o people, with 320,000 people at risk. Notmention a good chunk o BCs low-lying, nite agricultural land.

he unpalatable solution is managed retreat where governmentnd population basically gives up and goes along with the fow,adually shits everything and everyone to higher ground. (I so,

andcor breathless prediction: uture surges o motivated sellers inchmond, Delta et al.)

he Ambassador Speaks - Slap On the Whitewashespite the lag in Chinas economy, the Middle Kingdoms interest andvolvement in Canadas natural resource sector will continue, opinesur ambassador to China, Guy Saint-Jacques. In a recent interviewith The Canadian Press, Saint-Jacques believes the Canadianining and energy sectors will see increased Chinese investment (atesent; or every yuan put into mining, three are placed in energy)ith orestry ollowing along.

ong with such strategic moves such as China National Oshorel Corporations controversial $15-billion acquisition o Calgary-

ased Nexan, China state-owned companies such as Petro-Chinae working the Albertan oil-patch and looking to acquire interests ine proposed (and equally controversial) Northern Gateway pipelinehich would, i approved and built, ship diluted bitumen to Asia viae BC coast.

oser to home waters, Chinas imports o Canadian lumber and woododucts have grown in a spectacular ashion said Saint-Jacques,

p 22-old in the last decade, 2002 to 2012. China is discovering theuality and ease o rame construction and, with Beijings pledge touild literally millions o aordable housing units.

C sotwood exports to China jumped 60 percent in 2011, crackinge $1-billion mark and directly employing 10,000 BCers; since 2003,e China trade has grown by more than 1,500 percent, (rightully)

oasts Victoria. Minerals, gas, energy and other resource exports areking those not-so-slow boats too. In 2011, the United States market

bsorbed almost $1.6-billon o BC wood. Japan is in third place, at648 million in 2011.

owever, tourism and the average Chinese persons awareness andppreciation o Canada are going gangbusters. By 2015 Canadaould see up to 500,000 Chinese visitors per annum, with most o thecus likely on green and clean BC and urbane Toronto.

Theres a lot o suspicion towards Chinese investment in Canada,aint-Jacques told Canadian Press. My message is this: both sidesave to work through the suspicion. Concerns are exacerbated by theck o knowledge on both sides.

any countries have placed restrictions on oreign ownership osidential properties and agricultural land: Australia, the Unitedngdom, the Peoples Republic o China, Hong Kong among others.he doors are closing.

anada has no restrictions on residential property sales. (Certainestern provinces such as Saskatchewan do limit agriculturalnd sales to outsiders.) In big urban centers such as Toronto andancouver, the infux o oreign buyers has unquestionably aectedices, especially in the investment condo and higher-end single-mily-detached (SFD) markets.


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Fraser Valley Monthly Oct. Nov. % Chg3 Dec.

Number of Sales 846 944 11.58% 550 -3

Total Value of Sales $335.73M $361.38M 7.64% $225.31M -3

DetachedAverage $447,931 $450,171 0.50% $450,846

Median $437,000 $449,000 2.75% $450,668

CondoAverage $228,574 $204,614 -10.48% $201,829 -

Median $229,900 $205,629 -10.56% $202,500 -

AttachedAverage $304,605 $294,718 -3.25% $297,102

Median $317,949 $298,000 -6.27% $288,022

BC North/NW 2012 2011 % Chg1 2010

Number of Sales 7,425 7,068 5.05% 6,886 Total Value of Sales $1.50B $1.31B 14.71% $1.20B 2

DetachedAverage $232,022 $219,138 5.88% $210,600 1

Median $240,000 $230,000 4.35% $224,000

CondoAverage $106,604 $89,282 19.40% $95,704

Median $114,000 $89,000 28.09% $131,500 -1

AttachedAverage $165,675 $146,732 12.91% $165,526

Median $189,000 $176.000 7.39% $185,000

BC North/NW Monthly Oct. Nov. % Chg3 Dec.

Number of Sales 615 535 -13.01% 329 -4

Total Value of Sales $130.3M $117.03M -10.18% $93.6M


Median $243,100 $250,000 2.84% $225,000

CondoAverage $136,951 $75,574 -44.82% $89,258

Median $130,000 $84,750 -34.81% $86,750


Median $195,000 $203,500 4.36% $230,000

Fraser Valley 2012 2011 % Chg1 2010

Number of Sales 10,601 10,743 -1.32% 11,483

Total Value of Sales $4.18B $4.05B -3.30% $4.23B


Median $452,336 $449,900 0.54% $443,250

CondoAverage $193,559 $190,238 1.75% $190,239

Median $199,900 $196,000 1.99% $194,772

Attached

Average $288,816 $290,359 -0.53% $289,466

Median $298,954 $294,000 1.69% $296,500

1% change 2011 - 2012 2% change 2010-2012 3% change month to previouoston Consulting Group (BCG), a global consulting rm, reports that2010 there were 1.2 million US-dollar-equivalent millionaires in

hina. A year later, this elite club was up more than 10 percent to 1.4illion and, says Boston Consulting, will grow strongly in the uture,

ssuming Beijing doesnt throw a wrench into the works. Which hasappened beore.

wo classes o buyers, sometimes distinct but oten melded together.rst, the investor swooping in en mass to buy condos as sae havensr their new wealth, as many locals who didnt get into the market

arlier, grumble about unaordability and rising prices.ith investors, when prices keep rising -- all is well. But i pricesagnate and/or nancial problems bubble up at home, cutting loosent hard to do. Investment money isnt sticky it will fow away ind when the investment sotens or the owner believes better returnsan be achieved or salvaged -- elsewhere. In the timeless Landcorxiom: Bu yao ba ji dan fang zhai yi ge lan zhi Dont stick all yourggs in one basket.

he second type: the homebuyer, accent on home and ocused onenerational security versus short-term gains. In the Lower Mainlandis translates into SFD that by denition means actual dirt astinctive lot -- rather than mere air space as in stacks o condos. Inesirable areas, nite land and other restrictions naturally limit new

FD construction and buoys up prices. As well, SFD owners tend toe older and relatively more nancially secure and thus less willingsell or less.

oft Landing? Hard Knocks?eal economies are integrated, consisting o more than justomeowners. Consider, or example, the 2011 report rom theertied General Accountants Association o Canada (CGA) thatarned o ever-rising household debt ($1.5 trillion and climbing) ands asymmetric eect on single-parent amilies, retirees and thoseith annual incomes o less than $50,000 who all ace a bleaknancial situation.

he CGA report noted i the debt mountain was spread evenly, a

mily with two children would owe almost $180,000 . . . but its notpread evenly.

orking households making $50,000 or under are, according to theGA report, six times more likely to be nancially vulnerable in termsthe debt-income ratio. Single-parent amilies debt loads increase

ith age, making tough lives even tougher. More Canadians aregging debt into retirement; one third enter the golden years owingn average $60,000 and 17 percent stagger under $100,000 plus.

hen the CGA report came out way back in 2011, the householdebt-to-personal income ratio was a record 146.9 percent, up rom44 percent in late 2009. As o Q3 2012, the ratio was 164.6 percentthough (silver-plated lining) the rise appears to be moderating.he bulk o the debt is mortgage debt and thus somewhat sheltered

nder equity in those homes, although, worrisomely, non-mortgageebt is rising.

ou say tomato; I say potato and well-respected voices such as Davidosenberg, chie economist or wealth-management rm Gluskinhe and Associates, says when dissected properly, the debt/come-ratios ears and bubble panic are overblown.

osenbergs reasoning:

anadian debt/income ratio isnt really 165 percent. Factor out ourniversal health-care premiums; its more like 118 percent. In thenited States, pending the (spotty) implementation o Obamacare,ersonal medical costs and user-pay premiums are much higher.

s o late all, 2012 Canadian household debt, stacked against

Kootenay 2012 2011 % Chg1 2010

Number of Sales 3,274 3,053 7.24% 3,621

Total Value of Sales $0.82B $0.75B 8.78% $0.88B


Median $280,000 $280,000 1.82% $280,000

CondoAverage $175,682 $182,009 3.47% $182,009

Median $187,250 $187,375 1.22% $187,375


Median $263,180 $278,100 3.21% $278,100

Kootenay Monthly Oct. Nov. % Chg3 Dec.

Number of Sales 287 267 -6.97% 149 -4

Total Value of Sales $70.84M $63.4M -10.46% $38.46M -4

DetachedAverage $275,944 $259,365 -6.01% $248,058 -

Median $280,550 $270,000 -3.76% $244,000 -

CondoAverage $163,606 $169,168 3.40% $158,937

Median $205,357 $183,000 -10.89% $160,000 -2

AttachedAverage $238,744 $271,954 13.91% $333.270 3

Median $230,000 $250,000 8.70% $333,765


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ousehold assets and net worth, sits at 19 and 24 percent respectively,own rom the 20 and 25 percent peak. Canadians are learning rugality.osenberg estimates Canadian housing prices would have to drop by0 percent beore they mirrored the US pre-bubble burst situation.anadians also own more o their abodes: 69 per cent average equityersus 43 per cent in the United States. Nationally, the cushion is welladded (albeit not so much in Metro Vancouver and Greater Toronto).

r maybe not . . .

A Quick Peek Below the Borderitting atop the US economy and despite best eorts to diversiy intoverseas markets, resource-based Canadas nancial health is stillery much entwined with the elephant.

he US now seems to be pulling out o its housing mess, it (briefy)de-stepped its sel-made scal cli but it also has that titanicS$700 trillion plus tar-pit debt underoot and not much bipartisan

o notice the peril, let alone make the painul but crucial -- struggleack to rm, scal ground.

the US goes into the bog (again) and no matter how tidy their ownedgers, Canada and the world -- will eel the quicksand pull.

the US macros are bad, the micros arent much better. Much like theirebt-happy Canuck counterparts, 44 percent o American households

live on what the national non-prot Corporation or EnterDevelopment, (CFED) calls the edge o nancial collapse and, sthe least thing go wrong, they wouldnt have the resources to three months o basic expenses at the ederal poverty level. surveys have ound that almost 40 percent o American housewalk the tightrope rom pay stub to pay stub, even as existinsocial-saety nets are under attack in the US Congress by nomdecit-reduction hawks.

The CFED says those who see themselves as middle class (aincomes US$55,465 to US$90,000) are liquid-asset poor withthan three months personal savings. In turn, 26 percent were worth asset poor their ew assets are overwhelmed by their d

Bubble burst or slow defate? race or the exit? or steady trickle?

In overbuilt situations whats let is surpluses o inventory andare now unrealistic prices, unnaturally bloated and hollowed outwithout. Real bad luck or those who bought at market peak,minimal down payments, blithely thinking the music would never

Simple math but when interest rates rise (ETA: late 2013/early 2and should they rise in a weak economy, the combination punwill knock loose the newish overextended condo owners with thiequity, now going underwater. More inventory, more motivated semore price squeezing . . . and the beat(ing) goes on.

ound real estate decisions are made using the best possible inormation. Incorporated in 1987, Landcor Data Corporationas grown to be one o the most trusted providers o objective real estate data and analysis in British Columbia.

uring the past two decades weve helped hundreds o clients achieve their goals by oering the most comprehensive realstate data, analysis and insight available. From real estate valuation and analysis to land economics research and systemsevelopment, our sta o highly qualied experts are here to help you nd solutions to your real estate analysis and dataeeds. Landcor maintains the largest, most comprehensive database o historical sales and current inormation on BCesidential and commercial real estate.

andcors database includes: BCAssessmentdataon1.94millionproperties salestransactiondataforBC,includingpricesupdatedweekly geographiclocationdatausedincustomreports

LANDCOR Data Corporation

200 313 Sixth StreetNew Westminster, BC

V3L 3A7

Rudy Nielsen R.I. (B.C.) F.R.I.

President and Founder

report is provided by Landcor Data Corporation (Landcor) as a courtesy for general information purposes. Because the data in this report is provided to Landcor by the British Columbia Government and its various agencies, Landcor has no control over the accuracy of the data. The information in this document

refore provided as is and as available. The content is provided without warranties of any kind, either express or implied, including, but not limited to, implied warranties of merchantability, tness for a particular purpose, or noninfringement. Landcor, its subsidiaries, or its licensors are not liable for any direct, in

ental, special or consequential damages that result from the use of this content. This limitation applies whether the alleged liability is based on contract, tort, negligence, strict liability or any other basis, even if Landcor has been advised of the possibility of such damage.

use some jurisdictions do not allow the exclusion or limitation of incidental or consequential damages, Landcors liability in such jurisdictions shall be limited t o the extent permitted by law. While this information is believed to be correct, it is represented subject to errors, omissions, changes or withdrawal without n

13. All information herein is intended for information purposes only.

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2 0 1 1

To tal Sale Amount Total Number of Sales

Expo 86S&L Crisis

Hong Kong handover to China -

real estate frenzy leading up

to 1997

Asian Financial Crisis

Gulf War

Sub-Prime

Mortgage Crisis

Va

O

In

GST Introduced

BC Residential Annual Real Estate Sales, 1976-2012

Provincial NDP Party 1991-2001 Provincial Liberal Party 2001 -

udys Thoughts:

ny with a chance o rain? Rainy with a chance o sun? Ater ve decades

weathering through and taking advantage o real-estate markets and

nomic cycles, I know the only real constant is change. That and how seldom

st economists, pundits and other entrails-examiners agree on anything.

st predict 2013 will be a blah year. Overheated Canadian and BC real estate

rkets will cool as the big three economies United States, Euro-zone and

na -- wrestle with the usual trials. Hunker down and wait.

ser to our home however, contrarians warn o Canadian banks ever-lower

rtgage rates which, when coupled with bubble atigue, could see rustratednnabe homebuyers pile back in, (briefy) pump the markets, putting paid to

awas plans o a sot landing . . . and set things up or a real bad correction

ome.

I take the long view. BC is a trove o natural resources, clean water, an

able place to work, live and watch the cycles go by.

prudent, carry an umbrella, be glad youre here.

landcor residential sales summary for bc in 2012

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