land use/cover change effects on terrestrial carbon sources and sinks josep canadell csiro,...
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![Page 1: Land Use/Cover Change Effects on Terrestrial Carbon Sources and Sinks Josep Canadell CSIRO, Canberra, Australia [pep.canadell@csiro.au]](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062801/56649e415503460f94b33844/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Land Use/Cover Change Effects on Terrestrial Carbon Sources and Sinks
Josep CanadellCSIRO, Canberra, Australia
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• APN project and GCTE/GCP• Carbon Emissions
• Indonesia• China• Fire emissions• Erosion and Riverine transport• Future emissions
• Carbon Sinks• Sink Mechanisms• Forest sinks in Japan
Outline
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APN-GCTE Special Journal Edition:Land Use/Cover Change Effects on the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle in the Asian Pacific Region
“Science in China, Life Sciences – Series CEditors: Josep Canadell, Guangsheng Zhou, Ian Noble
APN Project: “Land Use Change and the Carbon Cycle in Asia [APN2000-02]”
Workshop: Kobe, January 2001
Commissioned Studies:Land Use Change and Carbon Cycle in Arid and Semi-Arid Lands of East and Central Asia. Chuluun.
Carbon Budgets of Forest Ecosystems in Southeast Asia Following Disturbance and Restoration. Lasco.
Support the development of two Research Proposals for GEF-IPCC:An Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability in Watershed areas
and communities in Southeast Asia. Lasco.Potential Impacts of Climate Change and V&A Assessment for Grassland Ecosystem and
Livestock Sector in Mongolia. Chuluun.
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Carbon Emissions
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HistoricallyTotal emissions of C
[deforestation and fossil-fuel burning]
450 PgC
From 1850 to 1990
Houghton et al. 1999, Houghton 1999, Defries et al. 1999, IPCC-TAR 2001
Global Emissions from Land Use Change
[180-200 PgC from land use change]
+ 90 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere
[40 ppm due to changes in land use]
90% due todeforestation[20% descrease
Forest Area]
124 Pg emitted due to land use change60% in tropical areas
%40 in temperate areas
1 Pg C = 1,000,000,000,000,000 g C(a billion tones)
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1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Annu
al N
et F
lux
of C
arbo
n (P
g)Net Annual Flux of Carbon from Changes in Land Use
Year
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
China
Africa
Latin America
Tropical Asia
Houghton 1999Houghton 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue, 2002
North America
6,3Fossil Fuel
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An
nu
al E
mis
sio
ns
of
Car
bo
n (
Pg
C y
r
)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
Land-use change
Land-use change & fossil fuels
Fossil fuels
Tropical Asia
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
Land-use change
Land-use change & fossil fuels
Fossil fuels
China
-1
Annual C EmissionsTropical Asia andChina [1850-2000]
Houghton 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue
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-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990An
nu
al f
lux
of
carb
on
(T
g C
yr
-1)
CroplandsShifting CultivationPlantationsIndustrial harvestFuelwood harvest
Tropical Asia
Houghton 2002 APN-GCTE Special Issue
Annual Flux of Carbon in Tropical Asia and China
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
An
nu
al f
lux
of
carb
on
(T
g C
yr
-1)
Degradation
Croplands
Industrial harvest
Fuelwood harvest
Plantations
China
[1850-2000]
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Land cover C density
% of Natural Forest*
Carbon Pools Measured
Source of data
Oil-palm (10yrs)Oil-palm (10 yrs)Oil-palm (14 yrs)Oil-palm (19 yrs)CoffeeNatural forest
62311019618325
191031306-
Aboveground biomass
[30]
Mature agroforest (rubber jungle)5-yr old rubberOil palm plantationCoffee mixed gardenUndisturbed rainforest
104
15.662.418390
27 4165-
Aboveground and below ground
[18]
Rubber agroforestsRubber agroforests with selected planting materialRubber monocultureOil palm monocultureNatural forest
116103
9791254
4641
3836-
Aboveground biomass and upper 30cm of soil
[17]
Rubber jungle 35.5 14* Aboveground biomass
[32]
Home gardens 35-40 20* Tree biomass [30]
Oil palm (30 yrs) 40.3 16* Aboveground biomass and necromass
[34]
Cinnamon 39 15* Aboveground biomass
[31]
Cinnamon 44 17* Aboveground biomass
[31]
C Density of various
land covers in Indonesia
Lasco 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issueand Commissioned Study 2001
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Forest Fires and Carbon Emissions
30N-25N
25N-20N
20N-15N
15N-10N
10N-5N
5N-EQ
EQ-5S
5S-10S
10S-15S
15S-20S
20S-25S
25S-30S
Rel
ativ
e C
O m
ixin
g ra
tio (
ppb)
(a) Carbon monoxide (CO)100ppb
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3(b) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
SOI
Matsueda 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue
CO over Western Pacific at 10 Km [1993-2001]
Murdiyarso 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue
Frequency of Hot Spots
Jambi Province, Sumatra
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River Transport of Carbon in the Godavari Basin, India
Fig. 2
Taiga
TemperateTropical
Semiarid Total
TO
C (
1012
g C
yr-1
)
0
25
50
75
200
300
400Global River Transport of C
60%
Con
cent
ratio
n (m
g C
l-1
)
0.1
1
10
DICPOCDOC
Flux
(x10
9 g C
yr
-1)
1
10
100
1000
Tributaries Main stream
Fig. 5
C Fluxes and ConcentrationsIn the Godavari Basin, India
Sarin
200
2AP
N-G
CTE
Issu
e
0.24 Pg yr-1
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1970
1995
2020
2045
2070
2095
Year
To
tal f
ore
st a
rea
(Mh
a) B1
A2
A1b
A1b_fastmigration
A1b_nonegfb
Land Covers and aCO2 in 2050 using IPCC-SRES
Agricultural Land Forest Area
CO2 Emissions [714 ppm – 1009 ppm]
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1970
1995
2020
2045
2070
2095
Year
To
tal C
O2
emis
sio
ns
(Pg
C/y
r)
Scenarios:‘material consumption’ (A); ‘sustainability and equity’ (B)'globalisation’ (1) ‘regionalisation’ (2)
Leemans 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue
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Carbon Sinks
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% Difference in Net Primary Production [1870-1990][Existing - undisturbed land cover]
NPP loss NPP gain DeFries et al. 1989
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- 0.8 - 1.7
IPCC 2001Schimel 2001
Terrestrial Carbon Sources and Sinks [1990’s]
Pg C/yr
+ 0.6+ 0.3 + 0.7
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- 0.8 - 1.7
IPCC 2001Schimel 2001
Terrestrial Carbon Sources and Sinks [1990’s]
Pg C/yr
- 0.6- 0.3 - 0.7
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Current Terrestrial Sinks Potential Driving Mechanisms
• CO2 fertilization• Nitrogen fertilization• Climate change• Regrowth of previously harvested forests
– Reforestation / Afforestation• Regrowth of previously disturbed forests
– Fire, wind, insects• Fire suppression• Decreased deforestation• Improved agriculture• Sediment burial• Future: Terrestrial Carbon Management (e.g., Kyoto)
Land Use/Cover Change
Canadell 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue
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Carbon Stocks in Live Forest Vegetation [1950-1995]
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Live
Veg
etat
ion
(Pg
C)
Canada
Coterminous USEuro Russia
China
Asian Russia
Europe
Goodale et al 2002
Forest Expansion• Cropland abandonment• Declining logging• Reforestation
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Fang et al. 2001
Between 1940’s and 70’s, C storage declined by 0.68 Pg C due to
forest exploitation policies
From late 1970’s to present, C storage has increased by 0.4 Pg C
due to policies of protection and timber production[+ 0.021 Pg C/yr]
0.38 Pg C comes from planted forests
Changes in Forest Carbon in China [1949-1998]
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-175
-150
-125
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
Paddy land
Dryland
Forest
Scrubs and dwarf w
oodland
Others w
oodland
Grassland
Water
City, resident and construction
land
1992
1996
2000
Vegetation
Soil
1992 1996 2000
Land Use Change and C loss in NE China [1992-2000]
Wang 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue
Decrease forest area: 2.76104km2
Increase urban area: 2.32104km2 Potential max. loss of 273.2 Tg C
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Alexandrove & Yamagata 2002 – APN-GCTE Special Issue
Net C Gain from Managed Forests in Japan [2000-2015]
70-yr RotationSink: 16 MtC/yr4% FF emissions
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Land use change and carbon cycle in arid and semi-arid lands of east and central Asia - Chuluun
Changes in annual fluxes of CO2 in South Korea from 1990 to 1997:
contributions of energy consumption, land-use change, and forest regrowth – Dowon
Carbon Emissions and Sinks from and into Agro-Ecosystems– Lind Erda
Carbon balance along Northeast China Transect (NECT-IGBP Transect). Guangsheng Zhou
Carbon stock assessment for a forest-to-coffee conversion landscape in Sumber-Jaya (Lampung, Indonesia): from allometric equations to land use
change analysis. Meine van Noordwijk.
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Nepstad et al. 1999
Landsat TM image, Paragom.,1991, classified as forest and non-forest[Brazilian Government reportingmethodology] – 62% Forest
Same image,classified after ranch owners interviews:only 1/10 of the above forest was classified as undisturbed forest by human practices – 6.2% Forest
Hidden Deforestation: Carbon Implications
Forest Impoverishment:
- Surface fires (could be responsible for doubling C emissions during El Nino years)- Logging (4-7% of that of forest conversion)
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Guo and Gifford 2002
Soil Carbon Responses to various Land Use Changes
Global - Meta-analyses of 71 studies
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GCTE Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems [gcte.org]
GCTE Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems [gcte.org]
Global Change Effect s on Vegetation and Disturbance Regimes
Global Change, Agroecological Processes and Production Systems
Contemporary and Future Terrestrial Carbon Sources and Sinks
Changing Biodiversity and itsConsequences on Ecosystem Functioning