land use change in north west china jeff bennett
TRANSCRIPT
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Land Use Change in North West China
Jeff Bennett
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1. China’s land and water resources
Area of 960 m hectares • 40% grassland• 17% forests• 14% cropland• 66% mountainous
Dry in the north and west Wet in the south and east
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2. Resource degradation
38% of total land area “eroded” 50% of cropland “eroded” 34% of grassland moderately to severely degraded 27% of total area subject to desertification 10% of total area subject to salinisation
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3. Population and resources
22% of the world’s population on 7% of the world’s arable land
“Mismatch” of population with rainfall distribution
Growing urbanisation across formerly agricultural land
Pressure on resources … a cause of degradation
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3. Institutional factors
Grain self-sufficiency policy
Agricultural collectivisation – property rights
Industrialisation policy State monopoly in
agricultural commodity procurement and marketing
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Since Household Responsibility System (1978):• Incomplete land tenure – use
rights only• Frequent enforced
redistributions• Ie Inadequate definition and
defence of rights
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4. … the consequences
Reduced agricultural productivity
More natural disasters (flooding, dust storms, mud slides )
Diminished biodiversity Rivers stop flowing Air and water quality
deterioration
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5. The policy response – “Grain for Green”
Convert cropland and “barren land” to forests and grassland to achieve water and soil conservation, but also agricultural restructuring and poverty reduction under the mantle of “sustainable development”
Inception in 1999 Payments of cash, grain and seedlings to farmers
who convert land
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6. Adoption
25 provinces 1580 counties 15 million farmer
households Target: net increase in
forest and grassland of 32 million hectares
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7. Features
150 kg/mu pa in the south 100 kg/mu pa in the north 20 yuan/mu pa in cash 50 yuan/mu worth of
seedlings
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8. Terms
Benefits received over 2 years for grassland
5 years for “commercial forests”
8 years for “ecological forests”
Difference between commercial and ecological based on planting density
Use rights on converted land extended to 70 years
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9. … but is it sustainable?
Are the income streams available from the new land use patterns after the removal of the payments superior to the pre policy amounts?• Price impacts of increased supply of tree products?• Extent of off-farm income?• Grain market responses?
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10. … and is it efficient?
What are the biophysical impacts of the project? What value does the community have for those
benefits? Are the benefits being achieved at the lowest cost?• Does the scheme target farmers with the highest net
benefit of conversion? (low opportunity costs plus high environmental impact?
• Does the scheme provide perverse incentives (eg to “grow” subsidies not products)?
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11. The project
ACIAR funded collaboration between ANU and the China National Forest Economics Development Research Centre (part of the State Forestry Administration)
3 phases:• Household survey to investigate financial impacts• Broader benefit cost analysis integrating values of
environmental impacts• Institutional economic analysis of alternative policy
settings
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12. Household survey
Conducted 4-28 June 2004 Involved 405 households in
15 villages across 4 counties in 2 Provinces (Shaanxi and Quinhai)
2064 people in the households
31% of respondents illiterate
75% males 74% Han, 19% Tibetan
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Over 14,000 mu of farm area involved (15 mu=1 ha)
17 mu per farm in Shaanxi 39 mu per farm in Quinghai 4800 mu converted to
forestland 2700 mu converted to
grassland Area sown to crops
decreased from 13,500 mu to 4,500 (about one third)
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Average cash payments (pa)• Bin Xian – 47 Yuan• An Sai – 340 Yuan• Gong He – 565 Yuan• Min He – 160 Yuan• (A$1 = 6.5 Yuan)
Average grain subsidy (pa)• Bin Xian – 425 jin• An Sai – 3167 jin• Gong He – 5670 jin• Min He – 1640 jin• (I jin = 500 gm)
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13. Before and after GFGP
Labour input • 293 to 196 days per h’hold
Crop seed costs• Y 530 to Y 334 per h’hold
Crop Output• Shaanxi – down 70%• Quinghai – down 17%
Off-farm income• 213 people to 279 people• Y 3074 to 3900 per person
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14. Work underway
Analysis of the household data to estimate impact on net income
Prediction of biophysical impacts of the policy• Water quality and quantity• Air quality
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15. Project information
Project web-site• Downloadable papers• Up dates on progress
http://apseg.anu.edu.au/staff/jb_suslndrr.php