Agrimonde-Terra

IFPRI policy seminar « Visioning the future of Food Security»

18 January 2017

Presentation of the collective work by Marie de Lattre-Gasquet

Land use and global food security

in 2050

A FORESIGHT EXERCISE

Agrimonde-Terra : a collective work

Project team: M. de Lattre-Gasquet (Cirad, coordinator), Ch. Le Mouël (Inra, coordinator), O. Mora (Inra, organizer for scenario building), C. Donnars (Inra), P. Dumas (Cirad) & O. Rechauchère (Inra), in collaboration with M. Barzman (Inra), T. Brunelle (Cirad), A. Forslund (Inra), E. Marajo-Petitzon (Inra), S. Manceron (Inra), P. Marty (Inra) & C. Moreau (Cirad).

Thematic workshops (scientific coordinators and 80 researchers): (i) “Urban-rural relationships”: F. Aubert (Agro-Sup, Dijon) & F. Lançon (Cirad)(ii) “Structures of production”: J. Marzin (Cirad) & L. Piet (Inra)(iii) “Cropping systems”: D. Makowski (Inra), E. Malézieux & F. Maraux (Cirad) (iv) “Livestock systems” A. Ickowitz & P. Lecomte (Cirad) & P. Lescoat (APT)

Scenario Advisory Committee: A. Andersson Djurfeldt (LundUniversity, Sweden), L. Ben Becher (Synagri, Tunisia), M. Elloumi (Inrat, Tunisia), A. Faye (IPAR, Senegal), R. Guissou / Y. G. Bazie (Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, Burkina Faso), H. Kray (World Bank, USA), J. Lewis (Terra Global Capital, USA), P. Meyfroidt (Louvain University, Belgium), M. Mueller (FAO, Italy), S. Msangui (IFPRI, USA), A. Onorati (International Planning Committee on Food Sovereignty, Italy), S. Parmentier (Oxfam, Belgium), A. Retière (Cap 2100, France), R. Sonnino (Cardiff University, UK), S. Treyer (IDDRI, France), D. van der Mensbrugghe (AgMIP, Purdue University, USA), J. Vervoort (CCAFS and Oxford University, UK), H. Zehni (IFAD, Italy).

From Agrimonde to Agrimonde-Terra

AgrimondeFeeding the World in 2050

2007-2010

Agrimonde-TerraLand Use and Food security in 2050

(started in 2013)

• Land (esp. pastures) and water

• Diets, malnutrition

• Climate change

• Energy: needs and transition

• Soils erosion and pollution

• Biodiversity loss

• 570 million farms

2 contrasted scenarios:- Agrimonde GO /- Agrimonde 1

The Agrimonde-Terra foresight process

ANTICIPATION

APPROPRIATION(PRO)-ACTION

To facilitate informed decision-makingand multi-stakeholder approach

about the futures of land use and food security by :

Drivers of land use and food security systems (global and regional) and alternative hypotheses about future changes

5 scenarios

GlobAgri, a quantitative platform

Scenario Advisory Committee

Presentations & discussions

Regional & national workshops

Decisions at international, regional and national levelsby differents actors

Methodological innovations1. A systemic & participatory approach combining

hypotheses in a coherent fashion

Methodological innovations 2. Combination of qualitative and quantitative

approaches

Quantitative hypotheses for 14 regionsPopulation of 9.7 billion

Economic growth; R&D; trade coeff.

Max cultivable area (Zabel et al, 2014); effect on yields(Müller and Robertson, 2014); EJ produced by biomass

Diet composition, daily calories availability

--

--

Shares of livestock systems in each sector’s production in regions; feed-to-output ratios by sector/system/ region

Yield gaps; cropping intensity

7

Illustration: Food diets 2050

Quantitative hypotheses: Average world in 2010 and in 2050 following the various food diets pathways.Regional differences

Situation in 2010

Transition to diets based on ultraprocessed products

Transition to diets based on animal products

Regional diversity of diets and food systems

Healthy diets based on food diversity

8

7.c. Wheat

7.f. Pulses

Source: Authors’ calculation from GlobAgri-AgT and GAEZ data

Cropping systems

Methodological innovations3. Building national scenarios with Ag-T and GlobAgri

Agroecological

land uses

Dualisme in

land uses

Virtual land Survive on

landCrop yields per hectare ++ + +++ -

Animal production ++ + + -

Use of inputs + +++ - -

Availability of local seeds +++ + - +

Employment +++ + - +

Imports’ dependance + ++ +++ -

Evolution of arable land + ++ - -

3. 4 scenariosbuilt and assessed

2. Hypotheses preparedby Tunisian stakholders

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Mill

ion

hec

tare

s

Wheat

Sunflowerseed

Sugar plants andproductsSoyabeans

Roots and Tuber

Rice

Rape andMustardseedPulses

Other plantproductsOther Oilcrops

Distribution of land use in North Africa with 4 Agrimonde-Terra scenarios. Source : GlobaAgri-AgT

4. Quantitative illustrations

1. Retrospective of landuse and food security in Tunisia (1960 – 2015) and discussion Consensus on past and on-going trends

Contexte

Coopération

mondiale et

durabilité

Régionalisation

et transition

énergétique

Développement

conventionnel

tiré par les

forces du

marché mondial

Fragmenta-

tion politique

et

économique

Changement

climatique

Changement

climatique

accéléré

Stabilisation du

changement

climatique

Gouvernance

en Tunisie

Politiques

volontaristes

de

développement

rural

Inertie des

problèmes

structurels

Extraversion de

l’économie

tunisienne

Faiblesse de

l’Etat et

pression des

groupes

d’intérêt

particulier

Régimes

alimentaires

Transition

alimentaire

impulsée par la

chaîne de

valeur

moderne

Sursaut

sanitaire

Régime

alimentaire

territorialisé

Dualisme

alimentaire

Relations

rural/urbain

Grande région

métropolitaine

et rupture

spatiale avec

les hinterlands

ruraux

Zones rurales

intégrés dans

des réseaux de

villes à travers

organisation

chaines de

valeur

alimentaire

Ménages multi-

localisés et

pluriactifs dans

un archipel rural-

urbain

Structures

d’exploitation

Structures

d’exploitations

résilientes

reliées aux

dynamiques

urbaines

Structures

autonomes

tout en étant

dépendantes

de grandes

entreprises

Structures qui

font production

simultanée de

biens et de

services

Structures

tournées vers

qualité

(marché de

niche à haute

valeur

ajoutée)

Projet agro-

financier

à durée

déterminée

Structures d’

exploitation

marginalisées

Systèmes

d’élevage

Elevage agro-

écologique sur

terres en

synergie avec

l’agriculture ou

l’urbanisation

Elevage

intensif

conventionnel

avec

alimentation

locale et

importée

Elevage intensif

conventionnel

avec

alimentation

importée (hors

sol)

Elevage sur

les terres

marginales

Systèmes de

culture

Régression /

Stagnation de

la production

Intensification

conventionnell

e

Agroécologie

Unexpected resultFive scenarios and impact on LU and FS

Metropolization Regionalization Healthy Communities Households

Narratives aboutdrivers and “howdid we get there”

Global markets, megacities and spatialdivide with rural areas, global food value chains, ultra-processed and animal-basedfoods. External feed-livestock,conventional intensific., Small farmers marginalized diet-related diseases

Supranational regionalblocs, medium-size cities linked with rural areas, regional food systems and diets, food sovereignty and subsidiarity,Re-location of livestock and crop systems,association of prod. and cons.

Global cooperation, climate changestabilization,international policieson health and nutrition, food diversificationCrop system diversification,agroecology, crop–livestock integration, soil carbon storage

Global fragmentationCrises: governance, economic, energy and ecology. Local communities, commons, agro-ecology.Collapse of cropping systems, subsistence farming.food insecurity

Globalization based on

non-State actor and

networks, value chain

disintermediation,

rural-urban mobility.

Agricultural

households: multi-

activity, multi-local,

non-farm activities.

Diverse farm structures

Agro. Potent. + 120 M ha + 60 M ha = initial + 60 M ha + 60 M ha

Access - - - + + + + + + - - + + + +

Distribution + specialization Diversifcation Diversification Diversification + High value pdts

IntensityObserved yieldsHarvest/cult area

- - -+ + +

- -+ +

= 2010+ + +

- - / + ++ + +

- / + ++ + +

Services - - - + + + + + + + + + / - - + + +

Availability + + + - - - / + + + + + + - - - / + + + =

Access - - + + + + + + - - - + + + / - - -

Utilization - - - + + + + + + + + / - - - / + +

Unexpected result2. The urgent need to change pathway

Land use changesin Mha

Qualitative assumptions (sustainable intensification for cropping livestock and agroecological livestock) Secure access to land. Stabilization of global warming, carbon storage, energy transition. Crops –livestock associations. Rediversification of crops and crop systems. Agricultural employment; ecosystem services provided by land

Qualitative hypothesesInsecure access to land dual system. Runaway climate. Globalized value chains.Few services providedby land. Little employment in agriculture.Lack of nutriments.Overweight and non-comunicable diet-related diseases.Inequalities.Poor biodiversity and low resilience of systems.

New insight about global food security

• No given pathway to food security while addressingmajor challenges urgent need for systemic and coherent transformation through multi-stakeholder cooperation.

• Each region / country will have its own pathway in relation to initial situation and in coherence with common responsibilities in facing global challenges.

• There are leverage points.

SSA: Leverage points for Healthy pathwayStates cooperate with variety of actors; norms / I.P rules for diversity &food quality. Firms see business opportunities. Evolution of multilateraltrade & more trade partners. Etc.

SSA: representation of SSA in international bodies; democratization; efficient administrations, less corruption; transparency and openness;systems and participatory research. Etc.

Carbon storage, hydropower, solar energy. Link between rural and carboncredits. Etc.

Food policies and education; consumer mobilization; increasedconsumption of fruits, vegetables, local cereals, pulses, animal products, but different in West Africa and ECS Africa; reconfiguring food value chains; policies and noms targeting key players and products of food systems. Etc.

Medium-sized cities; agri-food activities in rural areas; more transport and storage facilities. Etc.

Secure access to land, to credit, infrastructures, techniques & organizations; legal systems for cooperatives; connections to urban orinternational markets; added value based on collective action and voluntary quality standards; labour regulations; multi-activity. Etc.

Fight against trypanosomiases (through integrated means or identification of non-infected zones in peri-urban areas; livestock-crops associations; local feed; hardy animals; improved livestock management techniques. Etc

Diversity of varieties available; agroforestry, mixed cropping, associations, input substitution, labor intensive, small mechanization and irrigation. Etc.

Key lessons for researchers

• New research questions about:– Agricultural production systems / food and nutritional security.

– Governance / farming practices / land use / food security.

– Consumption habits & dietary transitions / food supply / farming practices / land use.

– Strategies of agrifood systems’ actors / trade / food security.

– Processes of evolution of farm structures

• Richness of dialogue (a) between scientists of differentdisciplines, and (b) between scientists and non-scientists.

For further information

http://www.cirad.fr/en/publications-resources/publishing/studies-and-documents/agrimonde-terra-foresight-study

http://institut.inra.fr/en/Objectives/Informing-public-policy/Foresight/All-the-news/Agrimonde-Terra-foresight-study

Articles

De Lattre-Gasquet M. and Treyer S. (2016). Agrimonde and Agrimonde-Terra: foresight approaches compared. IDS Bulletin, issue 47, No. 4.

Brunelle T., 2015. Vers une prospective des impacts du changement climatique sur la sécurité alimentaire : les enseignements du 5ème rapport du GIEC. AE&S vol.5, n°1, juin 2015 : 13-22.

De Lattre-Gasquet M., Donnars c., Marzin j., Piet L., 2014. Quel(s) avenir(s) pour les structures agricoles ? Cahier Demetern°15 : 169-196.

Guyomard H., Schmitt B., 2014. Les terres agricoles, un enjeu pour la sécurité alimentaire de la planète à l’acuité variable selon les régions du monde. Cahier Demeter n°15, 101-118.

Lançon F., Mora O., Aubert F., 2014. L’extension urbaine à travers le monde : enjeux pour les villes et les campagnes.Cahier Demeter n°15,83-100.

Manceron S., Ben-Ari T., Dumas P., 2014. Feeding proteins to livestock: Global land use and food vs. feed competition. OCL 2014, 21 (4) D408.

Agrimonde-Terra

Land use and global food security

in 2050

A FORESIGHT EXERCISE

Thank you for your attention