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RTO-TR-8 AC/323(SAS)TP/5
CO NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY ORGANIZATION
RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY ORGANIZATION
BP 25, 7 RUE ANCELLE, F-92201 NEUILLY-SUR-SEINE CEDEX, FRANCE
RT0 TECHNICAL REPORT 8
Land Operations in the Year 2020 (LO2020) (Opérations terrestres à l’horizon 2020 (LO2020))
This study was carried out at the request of SHAPE (Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe), and was managed by the Studies, Analysis and Simulation Pane1 (SAS).
Published March 1999
Distribution and Availability on Back Cover
RTO-TR-8 AC/323(SAS)TP/5
NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY ORGANIZATION
RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY ORGANIZATION
BP 25, 7 RUE ANCELLE, F-92201 NEUILLY-SUR-SEINE CEDEX, FRANCE
RT0 TECHNICAL REPORT 8
Land Operations in the Year 2020 (LO2020) (Opérations terrestres à l’horizon 2020 (LO2020))
This study was carried out ut the request of SHAPE (Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe), and was managed by the Studies, Analysis and Simulation Pane1 (SAS).
The Research and Technology Organization (RTO) of NATO
RT0 is the single focus in NATO for Defence Research and Technology activities. Its mission is to conduct and promote cooperative research and information exchange. The objective is to support the development and effective use of national defence research and technology and to meet the military needs of the Alliance, to maintain a technological lead, and to provide advice to NATO and national decision makers. The RT0 performs its mission with the support of an extensive network of national experts. It also ensures effective coordination with other NATO bodies involved in R&T activities.
RT0 reports both to the Military Committee of NATO and to the Conference of National Armament Directors. It comprises a Research and Technology Board (RTB) as the highest level of national representation and the Research and Technology Agency (RTA), a dedicated staff with its headquarters in Neuilly, near Paris, France. In order to facilitate contacts with the military users and other NATO activities, a small part of the RTA staff is located in NATO Headquarters in Brussels. The Brussels staff also coordinates RTO’s cooperation with nations in Middle and Eastem Europe, to which RT0 attaches particular importance especially as working together in the field of research is one of the more promising areas of initial cooperation.
The total spectrum of R&T activities is covered by 6 Panels, dealing with:
l SAS Studies, Analysis and Simulation
l SC1 Systems Concepts and Integration
l SET Sensors and Electronics Technology
l IST Information Systems Technology
l AVT Applied Vehicle Technology
l HFM Human Factors and Medicine
These Panels are made up of national representatives as well as generally recognised ‘world class’ scientists. The Panels also provide a communication link to military users and other NATO bodies. RTO’s scientific and technological work is carried out by Technical Teams, created for specific activities and with a specific duration. Such Technical Teams cari organise workshops, symposia, field trials, lecture series and training courses. An important function of these Technical Teams is to ensure the continuity of the expert networks.
RT0 builds upon earlier cooperation in defence research and technology as set-up under the Advisory Group for Aerospace Research and Development (AGARD) and the Defence Research Group (DRG). AGARD and the DRG share common roots in that they were both established at the initiative of Dr Theodore von Karman, a leading aerospace scientist, who early on recognised the importance of scientific support for the Allied Armed Forces. RT0 is capitalising on these common roots in order to provide the Alliance and the NATO nations with a strong scientific and technological basis that Will guarantee a solid base for the future.
The content of this publication has been reproduced directly from material supplied by RT0 or the authors.
Printed on recycled paper
Published Match 1999
Copyright 0 RTO/NATO 1999 Al1 Rights Reserved
ISBN 92-837-1015-O
Pn’nted by Canada Communication Group Inc. (A St. Joseph Corporation Company)
45 Sacré-Cœur Blvd., Hull (Québec), Canada KIA OS7
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Land Operations in the Year 2020 (LO2020) (RT0 TR-8)
Executive Summary
This study, which was requested by SHAPE, identifies the most critical key and emerging technologies and the impact they Will have on militai-y land forces in the year 2020. It also addresses the likely nature of the battlefield, the types of land forces, and their characteristics and capabilities. This Will help NATO plan its research and development, and SHAPE Will use it as input to the NATO Defence Planning Process.
Main Conclusions
Although there Will be a wide range of demands on NATO forces in 2020, the highest priority is the ability to fight a full-scale conflict. War-fighting must remain the basic ethos, but with the ability to adapt to other types of operation. Enhanced protection against the full spectrum of attacks must be incorporated into NATO doctrine and force structure.
The battle space in 2020 Will be variable in density, non-linear, and more dispersed. It Will be cellular in nature, multi-directional and increasingly determined by what is above the battlefield in air and space. The most demanding, yet probable, environment for conflict is likely to be urban.
Interoperability Will continue to pose a challenge as NATO incorporates new members. Harmonisation of doctrine, information systems, and communications is essential.
Information dominante and superiority Will remain a key militai-y objective.
Reduction in logistic drag Will be essential for effective militai-y operations in 2020.
Impact of Technology
Force structures Will need to change in order to exploit technology to the fullest.
The following broad technology areas are deemed to be of special importance:
High Power Electrical Technologies, Directed Energy Weapons, Computing Technologies, Communication Technologies, Electronic/Information Warfare Technologies, Electronic Devices, Biotechnology, Structural Materials Technologies, Human Factors and Man-Machine Interfaces, Precision Attack Technologies, and Automation and Robotics.
Each of these areas is underpinned by a large number of basic technologies. Four key emerging technology areas were identified for further research projects:
High Power Battlefield Electrical Systems, Biotechnology, Micro Electrical-Mechanical Systems (MEMS), and Novel Energetic Materials.
Several emerging technology applications were also identified:
Precision Attack, Sensing, Information Fusion, Digitisation, Non-Lethal Weapons and Barriers, Robotics, Simulation and Synthetic Environments, and Modular Systems.
Advances in these areas Will contribute to tempo, sustainability, manoeuvre, protection, interoperability, acquisition, force structure, and soldier systems - a11 the major military requirement areas identified in the study.
Major Recommendations
l NATO should provide the focus for the development of key technologies with special emphasis on standardisation and interoperability between member nations.
l The NATO Research and Technology Organisation should initiate studies or collaborative research programmes on the most promising emerging technologies.
l SHAPE should consider the conclusions and recommendations of this study for inclusion in the 2000 Defence Planning Cycle.
l SHAPE should establish a NATO military working group to study joint and combined concepts and doctrine.
A fuller overview follows the contents list.
Opérations terrestres à l’horizon 2020 (LO2020) (RT0 TR-8)
Synthèse
Cette étude, qui a été réalisée à la demande du SHAPE, identifie les technologies clés et naissantes les plus importantes et leur impact sur les forces militaires terrestres à l’horizon 2020. Elle examine également la nature probable du champ de bataille, les types de forces terrestres, leurs caractéristiques et capacités. Elle sera d’une grande utilité pour la planification des activités de recherche et développement de 1’OTAN et servira au SHAPE dans le cadre de sa contribution aux Procédures de planification de la défense de 1’OTAN.
Conclusions principales
Vraisemblablement, les forces de I’OTAN seront appelées à réaliser des interventions très diverses d’ici l’an 2020, mais la priorité numéro un demeurera la capacité de livrer une bataille de grande envergure. La conduite de la guerre doit subsister en tant que ligne directrice, mais avec la possibilité d’adaptation à d’autres types d’opérations. La protection renforcée contre l’éventail complet d’attaques possibles doit être incorporée dans la structure des forces de l’OTAN, ainsi que dans sa doctrine.
L’espace de bataille de l’an 2020 sera variable en densité, non-linéaire et plus dispersé. Il sera de nature cellulaire, multidirectionnelle, et de plus en plus déterminé par les éléments aériens et spatiaux se trouvant au-dessus du champ de bataille. L’environnement urbain sera l’environnement de conflit le plus difficile, mais en même temps le plus probable.
L’interopérabilité continuera de poser des problèmes avec l’élargissement de 1’OTAN. L’harmonisation des doctrines, et des systèmes d’information et communications est essentielle.
La domination de l’information et la supériorité demeureront un objectif militaire clé.
La diminution des délais d’acheminement de la logistique sera indispensable à la réussite des opérations militaires en l’an 2020.
L’impact des technologies
Il faudra procéder à des changements au niveau des structures des forces afin de profiter au maximum des nouvelles technologies.
Les grands domaines technologiques suivants sont jugés d’une importance particulière :
Les technologies électriques à grande puissance, les armes à énergie dirigée, les technologies de l’informatique, les technologies des télécommunications, les technologies électronique/de la guerre de l’information, les dispositifs électroniques, la biotechnologie, les technologies des structures et matériaux, les facteurs humains et les interfaces homme-machine, les technologies d’attaque de précision, l’automatisation et la robotique.
Chacun de ces domaines est soutenu par un grand nombre de technologies de base. Quatre nouveaux domaines technologiques clés ont été désignés pour de futurs projets de recherche :
Les systèmes électriques militaires de grande puissance, la biotechnologie, les systèmes microélectriques-mécaniques (MEMS) et les matériaux énergétiques novateurs.
Un certain nombre de nouvelles applications technologiques ont également été identifiées :
attaque de précision, télédétection, fusion des données, numérisation, armes non-létales et barrières, robotique, simulation et environnements synthétiques et systèmes modulaires.
Les progrès réalisés dans ces domaines apporteront leur contribution au rythme des opérations, au soutien des forces, à la manoeuvre, à la protection, à l’interopérabilité, aux approvisionnements, à la structure des forces et aux systèmes d’infanterie - en somme, à l’ensemble des grands domaines militaires identifiés par cette étude.
Recommandations principales
l L’OTAN doit être le point de convergence pour le développement des technologies clés en privilégiant la standardisation et l’interopérabilité entre pays membres.
l L’Organisation pour la recherche et la technologie de I’OTAN doit lancer des études et des projets de recherche en coopération sur les technologies naissantes les plus prometteuses.
l Le SHAPE doit réfléchir à la possibilité d’inclure les conclusions et les recommandations de cette étude dans le cycle de planification de la défense à l’horizon 2000.
l Le SHAPE doit établir un groupe de travail militaire OTAN pour étudier des concepts et des doctrines interarmées multinationaux.
La table des matières est suivie d’une synthèse plus complète.
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Contents
Executive Summary
Synthèse
List of Tables and Figures
Glossary of Acronyms and Terms
CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION
1.1 Introduction 1.1.1 Purpose 1.1.2 Study Methodology
1.2 Assumptions
1.3 Background
1.4 International Security Environment
1.5 Technology
CHAPTER 2 - CHALLENGES OF THE BATTLESPACE 2020
2.1 Aim and Scope
2.2 Nature of the Battlespace 2.2.1 Seamless Spectrum of Conflict 2.2.2 Force Components of Capability 2.2.3 Battlespace
2.3 Enduring Factors 2.3.1 The Soldier 2.3.2 Presence 2.3.3 Warfighting Etbos 2.3.4 Balance of Investment
2.4 Trends 2.4.1 The Information Age 2.4.2 Situational Awareness - Way of Command 2.4.3 Situational Awareness - the Data Deluge 2.4.4 Situational Awareness - the Media 2.4.5 Information Dominante or Superiority 2.4.6 Utility 2.4.7 New Vulnerabilities 2.4.8 Analysis and Doctrine 2.4.9 Urbanisation 2.4.10 Sustainment
2.5 Conclusions
2.6 Recommendations
CHAPTER 3 - IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY ON LAND OPERATIONS IN 2020
3.1 Aim and Scope
3.2 Technology Trends
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3.3 Methods used to Identify Key Technologies
3.3.1 Critical Technology List 3.3.2 CRITECH Exercise 3.3.3 Technology Seminar Wargame 3.3.4 MNE Brainstorm
3.4 Results of the Critical Technologies 3.4.1 Impact of Technology on Manoeuvre 3.4.2 Impact of Technology on Fire Support 3.4.3 Impact of Technology on Protection 3.4.4 Impact of Technology on Control of the Electromagnetic Spectrum 3.4.5 Impact of Technology on Command and Control 3.4.6 Impact of Technology on Information and Intelligence 3.4.7 Sustainability 3.48 Deployability
3.5 Simulation Based Acquisition
3.6 Comparison with the US Army After Next Study
3.7 Conclusions and Recommendations
CHAPTER 4 - CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Conclusions Relating to the Nature of the Battlespace in 2020
4.3 Conclusions Relating to “Emerging” Technologies 4.3.1 Conclusions Relating to Emerging Technology Applications
4.4 Recommendations
1. ANNEX I - NATURE OF THE BATTLESPACE IN 2020
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Aim
1.3 Background
1.4 The Spectrum of Conflict
1.5 View 1 1.5.1 Characteristics
1.6 View 2 1.61 Characteristics 1.6.2 Irregular Forces
1.7 Conclusions
2. ANNEX II - LAND OPERATIONS 2020 FORCE DESCRIPTION
2.1 AIM 2.1.1 Scope
2.2 Assumptions
2.3 Key Determinants 2.3.1 Areas of Deployment 2.3.2 Power Projection 2.3.3 Combined Operations 2.3.4 Joint Operations 2.3.5 Interagency Operations 2.3.6 Burden Sharing and Role Specialisation 2.3.7 Responsiveness
2.4 Structural Drivers 2.4.1 Doctrine 2.4.2 Human Factors
16 16 16 19 20
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53 53 53 53 54 54 54 54
54 54 55
. . .
2.4.3 Training 55 2.4.4 Modularity 55 2.4.5 Flexibility 56 2.4.6 Utility 56 2.4.7 Technology 56
2.5 Conclusions
3. ANNEX III - THE DERIVATION OF FORCE COMPONENTS OF CAPABILITY FROM THE NATURE OF THE BATTLEFIELD
4. ANNEX IV - UNDERPINNING TECHNOLOGIES
4.1 Technology Area: Novel Electric Technologies 4.1.1 Battlefield Power Generation 4.1.2 Energy Storage 4.1.3 Electric Propulsion Technology 4.1.4 Electric Armaments Technology 4.1.5 Superconductivity
4.2 Technology Area - Sensor, Directed Energy and Communications 4.2.1 LASER-Directed Energy 4.2.2 Radio Frequency Directed Energy
4.3 Technology Area - Computing Technologies 4.3.1 Computing Technologies (Artificial Intelligence) 4.3.2 Computer Applications and Information Processing 4.3.3 Computer Technologies 4.3.4 Data Processing, Artificial Intelligence and Software Engineering 4.3.5 Training Simulation and Synthetic Environments
4.4 Technology Area - Communication Specific Technologies 4.4.1 Monolithic Microwave Integrated Circuits 4.4.2 Optical Communications and Switching 4.4.3 Secure Wide-band Communications 4.4.4 Network Management 4.4.5 Micron Sized Vacuum Transistors 4.4.6 Multi-Gigahertz Analog to Digital Converters 4.4.7 Digital Signal Processing Micro Processor Chips 4.4.8 Superconducting Electronics
4.5 Technology Area - Electronic and Information Warfare 4.5.1 Computer Warfare Technologies 4.5.2 Information Warfare (IW)
71
75
76 77 78 79 80
81 81 93
101 101 102 104 108 114
115 116 117 118 119 120 120 121 122
123 124 125
4.6 Technology Area - Electronic Devices, Sensors & Micromechanics 126
4.6.1 Nanotechnology 126 4.6.2 Sensors 135
4.7 Technology Area - Biotechnology
4.7.1 Gene Technologies 4.7.2 Biomolecular Engineering 4.7.3 Bioproduction Technologies 4.7.4 Targeted Delivery Systems 4.7.5 Biocoupling & Bioelectronics
4.8 Technology Area - Advanced Materials and Smart Structures 4.8.1 Low Observable Mater& 4.8.2 Steels Technology 4.8.3 Titanium alloys and MMCs 4.8.4 Unconventional Alloys 4.8.5 Polymers 4.8.6 Novel Energetic Materials
139 140 141 142 143 144
145 147 149 151 153 154 156
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4.9 Technology Area - Man-Machine-Interface 4.9.1 Human Machine Interfaces 4.9.2 Human Systems Optimisation
4.10 Technology Area - Precision Attack Weapons
4.10.1 Precision Attack Weapons 4.10.2 Systems 4.10.3 Underpinning Technologies
4.11 Technology Area - Robotics and Automation
4.11.1 Intelligent Machines: Unmanned Ground Vehicles
5. ANNEX V - SUMMARY OF THE CRITECH EXERCISE 171
5.1 Context 171
5.2 Summary of the Bottom Up Approach Adopted 171
5.3 Interrogation 171
5.3.1 Feasibility 172
5.3.2 Effectiveness 172
5.3.3 Cost 172
5.3.4 Assessment 172
5.4 Outputs 174
5.4.1 First output 174
5.4.2 Second output 174
6. ANNEX VI - TECHNOLOGY SEMINAR WARGAME
6.1 Introduction 61.1 Background 6.1.2 Aim 6.1.3 Objectives
6.2 Methodology 6.2.1 Selection 6.2.2 Overview 6.2.3 Application of Technology Seminar Wargaming in the Study 6.2.4 Pairwise Compar%ons - the Saaty Analytical Hierarchy Process 6.2.5 Study Constraints 6.2.6 Assessment Criteria 6.2.7 Scenarios 6.2.8 Battlefield Systems and Technologies 6.2.9 Assessment 6.2.10 Team Composition 6.2.11 Observers
6.3 Study Results 6.3.1 Overview 6.3.2 Judgement and Discussion 6.3.3 Initial Pairwise Comparisons 6.3.4 Military Attractiveness 6.3.5 Technical Attractiveness 6.3.6 Graphical Representation of Results 6.3.7 Excursions to Pairwise Comparison Results 6.3.8 Comparison with Legacy Systems 6.3.9 Ranking of Technologies 6.3.10 Discussion of Results
6.4 Conclusions
6.5 Post Analysis - Research Investment Decisions 6.5.1 Introduction 6.5.2 Criteria 6.5.3 Illustrative Results and Discussion
157 157 159
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192 192 192 192 193 193 193 195 195 198 199 199
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6.5.4 Conclusions 6.5.5 Recommendations
7. ANNEX VII - SUMMARY OF COMPARISON STUDY BETWEEN TECHNOLOGIES OF LO2020 AND MARITIME OPERATIONS (MO) 2015
7.1 Background
7.2 Focus
7.3 Command and Information Systems and Architectures
7.4 Communications
7.5 Computer Hardware, Software, and Protocols
7.6 Miscellaneous Technologies
7.7 Other Technologies
7.8 Conclusions
8. ANNEX VIII - SUMMARY OF COMPARISON STUDY BETWEEN TECHNOLOGIES OF LO2020 AND AEROSPACE 2020
8.1 Background
8.2 Focus
8.3 Information Systems
8.4 Communications
8.5 Sensors
8.6 Directed Energy Weapons
8.7 Information Warfare Technology
8.8 Miscellaneous Technologies
8.9 Other Technologies
8.10 Conclusions
9. ANNEX IX - LIST OF PARTICIPANTS
10. ANNEX X - LIBRARY
220 220
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List of Tables and Figures
Page
List of Tables in the Main text
Table 2-l Core Force Components of Capability
Table 3-l Land Operations 2020 Shortlist Technologies
Table 3-2 Concept systems explored in the TSW
Table 3-3 AAN Technology Shortlist
Table 3-4 AAN Systems Shortlist
List of Figures in the Annexes
Figure l-l
Figure l-2
Figure 6-1
Figure 6-2
Figure 6-3
Figure 6-4
Figure 6-5
Figure 6-6
Figure 6-7
3 Dimensional Classification Scheme
Two Views of Future Conflicts
Technical v. Military Attractiveness - Results for Day 1
Technical v. Military Attractiveness - Results for Day 2
Technical v. Military Attractiveness - Results for Day 3
Comparison of Legacy Systems with TSW Systems
Grouping of TSW Systems
Relative Cost & Technical Risk for TSW Concepts
Military Attractiveness for TSW Concepts for 3 Scenarios
List of Tables in the Annexes
Table 6-l Twelve Battlefield Systems Assessed in the TSW
Table 6-2 Overview of Systems
Table 6-3 Indication of Statistical Significance between Scenarios
Table 6-4 Technical Attractiveness Ranking of Battlefield Systems
Table 6-5 Funding Proposals for the TSW Concepts
6
17
20
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Glossary of Acronyms and Terms
AD ADC
AH AHP AI AIGaAs ANOVA A0 APOD APS AS90 ASIC ASTOR ATGW ATM BDA BDR BLING BLOS c21 c2w c3 C31 C41 CARM CB CCD CDA CDAS CDMA CIFF GIS GIS CLOS CMC COLPRO COTS CRITECH CTBW cw DAC DARPA DAS DBMS DERA DEW DF DLW DMP DNA DRG
Army After Next Air Defence Analog to Digital Converter Armoured Fighting Vehicle Attack Helicopter Analytical Hierarchy Process Artificial Intelligence Aluminium Gallium Arsenide Analysis of Variante Adaptive Optics Air Port of Disembarkation Active Protection System 155mm Artillery System Application Specific Integrated Circuits Airbome Stand-Off Radar Anti-Tank Guided Weapons Asynchronous Transfer Mode Battle Damage Assessment Battle Damage Repair Bladed Ring Beyond-line of sight Command, Control and Intelligence Command and Control Warfare Command, Control and Communications Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence Command, Control, Communications, Computers, and Intelligence Cyclotron Autoresonant Maser Chemical and Biological Charge Coupled Device Centre for Defence Analysis Counter Defensive Aid Suit Code Division Multiple Access Combat Identification Friend or Foe Combat Information System Command and Information System Command to Line of Sight Ceramic Metal Composite Collective Protection Commercial off the Shelf Critical Technology (exercise) Chemical, Toxin, and Biological Warfare Continuous-wave Digital to Analog converter Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency Defensive Aids Suit Database Management Systems Defence Evaluation and Research Agency Directed Energy Weapon Deuterium Fluoride Directorate of Land Warfare Defence Materiel Procurement DeoxyriboNucleic Acid Defence Research Group
DRR 99 DRR DSP DU ECCM ECM EHF EM EMC EM1 EMP EMS EO EOD ERA ESD ETC EW Fe:InP FEL FET FIST FLIR FOG(M) FSED FSS FWM GaAIAs GaAs GaN GaP GPS GW HF HPM HTS HTSc HUMINT HUMS IEW IFF IHPTET InGaAsP InGaN InP InSb IPE IR IREB ISDN ISO ISTAR IT KBS KE LADAR LAN LAW
Defence Requirements Review 1999 Defence Requirements Review Digital Signal Processing Depleted Uranium Electre Counter-Counter-Measures Electre Counter-Measures Extremely High Frequency Electre Magnetic Electre Magnetic Compatibility Electromagnetic Interference Electre Magnetic Pulse Electre Magnetic Spectrum Electre Optic Explosive Ordnance Disposal Explosive Reactive Armour Electrostatic Damage Electre Thermal Chemical Electronic Warfare Iron: Indium Phosphide Free Electron Lasers Field Effect Transistors Future Infantry Soldier Technologies Forward Looking Infrared Fibre Optic Guided Munitions Full Scale Engineering Development Frequency Selecting Surfaces Four-wave Mixing Gallium Aluminium Arsenide Gallium Arsenide Gallium Nitride Gallium Phosphide Global Positioning System Giga-watt Hydrogen Fluoride High-power Microwave High Temperature Superconductors High Temperature Superconductivity Human Intelligence Health and Usage Monitoring System Information Electronic Warfare Identification Friend or Foe Integrated High Performance Turbine Engine Technology Indium Gallium Arsenide Phosphide Indium Gallium Nitride Indium Phosphide Indium Antimonide Individual Protection Equipment Infrared Intense Relativistic Electron Beam Integrated Services Digital Network International Standards Organisation Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance Information Technology Knowledge Based System Kinetic Energy Laser Radar Local Area Network Light Ami-Armour Weapon
XiV
LCD LED LIDAR LO LO2020 LS LTSS MBT MDSS MEMS MILO MIPS MLRS MLS MmlIR MMC MMI MMIC MMW MNE MO2015 MOD MPM MSG MT1 NATO NBC NCTR Nd NIS NLOS NLW
NQR NRT OA OOTW OP0 OPSEC OPSS ORBATS OTC OTM PCR PfP PHEMT PLD PLL PLZT PMC PS0 PZT
QPM R&D RADAR RAM RAM-D RFDE RF
Liquid Crystal Displays Light Emitting Diodes Light Intensified Radar Land Operations Land Operations in the year 2020 Land Systems Long Term Scient& Study Main Battle Task Multi-Domain Smart Sensor Micro Electre Mechanical System Magnetically Insulated Line Oscillator Million instructions per second Multiple Launch Rocket System Multi Level Security Millimetre wave/Infrared Metal Matric Composite Man Machine Interface Monolithic Microwave Integrated Circuits Millimetre wave Multi-National Exercise Maritime Operations 2015 Ministry of Defence Medium Power Microwave Military Steering Group Moving Target Indicator North Atlantic Treaty Organisation Nuclear Biological and Chemical Non Co-operative Target Recognition Neodymium NATO Information System Non Line Of Sight Non Lethal Weapons Nuclear Quadruple Resonance Near Real Time Operational Analysis Operations Other Than War Optical Parametric Oscillators Operational Security Optically Activated Semiconductor Switches Order of Battle Officer in Tactical Command On the Move Polymerase Chain Reaction Partnership for Peace High Electron Mobility Transistors Programmable Logic Devices Phase Locked Loop Lead-Ianthanum-zirconium-titanate Polymer Matrix Composite Peace Support Operation Lead-zirconium-titanate Quasi Phase Matching Research and Development Radio Detecting and Ranging Radar Absorbent Materials Reliability and Maintainability Radio Frequency Directed Energy Radio Frequency
xv
RIF RISTA RMA RTB SADARM SAR SAS SATCOM SBA SBS SET SFM
SFQ SHAPE Si SIA Sic SiGe SOI SPOD SQUID STA STOW T/R TGSM TRACER TSG TSW TWT UAV UGV UMA UN UV
VHR VLR VLSI WAN WEU WHA WMD WST YAG ZnSe
Radar Information Fields Reconnaissance, Intelligence, Surveillance and Target Acquisition Revolution in Military Affairs Research and Technology Board Sense and Destroy Armour Synthetic Aperture Radar Studies, Analysis and Simulation Satellite Communications Simulation Based Acquisition Stimulated Brillouin Scattering Single Electron Transistor Sensor Fused Munitions Single Flux Quantum Logic Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe Silicon Semiconductor Industry Associations Silicon Carbide Silicon Germanium Silicon-on-insulator Sea Port of Disembarkation Superconducting quantum interference device Surveillance Target Acquisition Synthetic Theatre of War Transmit/Receive Terminally Guided Sub-Munition British Armoured Scout Vehicle Technical Study Group Technology Seminar Wargame Travelling wave Tube Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Unmanned Ground Vehicle Unmanned Aircraft United Nations Ultra Violet Ultra Wide Band Very High Risk Very Low Risk Very Large Scale Integration Wide Area Network Western European Union Tungsten heavy alloys Weapons of Mass Destruction Wafer Scale Technology Yttrium Aluminium Garnet Zinc Selenium
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REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE
1. Recipient’s Reference 2. Originator’s References 3. Further Reference 4. Security Classification of Document
RTO-TR-8 ISBN 92-837-1015-O UNCLASSIFIED/
AC/323(SAS)TP/5 UNLIMITED
5. Originator Research and Technology Organization North Atlantic Treaty Organization BP 25, 7 rue Ancelle, F-92201 Neuilly-sur-Seine Cedex, France
6. Title
Land Operations in the Year 2020 (LO2020)
7. Presented affsponsored by
SHAPE and the Studies, Analysis and Simulation Pane1 (SAS).
8. Author(s)/Editor(s) 9. Date
Multiple Match 1999
10. Author’siEditor’s Address
Multiple
11. Pages
268
12. Distribution Statement There are no restrictions on the distribution of this document. Information about the availability of this and other RT0 unclassified publications is given on the back caver.
13. Keywords/Descriptors
Land warfare Battlefields Forecasting Military operations Military planning Research projects NATO forces Interoperability Information systems Force structure planning Military doctrine
Critical technologies Electric power Field equipment Biotechnology MEMS (Microelectromechanical Systems) Energetic mater& Situational awareness Trends War games Weapon systems
14. Abstract
This is the final report of the Long-Term Scientific Study on Land Forces in the Year 2020. This study identified the types of land forces and their capabilities and characteristics that Will be required on the NATO battlefield in the year 2020 for warfighting and other military operations. This information provides SHAPE, and subsequently the major NATO Commanders, with a basis for long-term requirements and defence planning guidance.
NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY ORGANIZATION
RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY ORGANIZATION
BP 25.7 RUE ANCELLE
F-92201 NEUILLY-SUR-SEINE CEDEX l FRANCE
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Les publications de la RT0 et de I’AGARD sont en vente auprès des agences de vente indiquées ci-dessous, sous forme de photocopie ou de microfiche. Certains originaux peuvent également être obtenus auprès de CASI.
CENTRES DE DIFFUSION NATIONAUX ALLEMAGNE ISLANDE
Fachinformationszentrum Karlsruhe Director of Aviation D-76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen 2 clo Flugrad
BELGIQUE Reykjavik Coordinateur RT0 - VSL/RTO ITALIE Etat-Major de la Force Aérienne Aeronautica Militare Quartier Reine Elisabeth Ufficio Stralcio RTO/AGARD Rue d’Evere, B-l 140 Bruxelles Aeroporto Pratica di Mare
CANADA 00040 Pomezia (Roma) Directeur - Gestion de l’information LUXEMBOURG
(Recherche et développement) - DRDGI 3 Voir Belgique Ministère de la Défense nationale Ottawa, Ontario KlA OK2
NORVEGE Norwegian Defence Research Establishment
DANEMARK Attn: Biblioteket Danish Defence Research Establishment P.O. Box 25 Ryvangs Allé 1 N-2007 Kjeller P.O. Box 2715 DK-2 100 Copenhagen 0
PAYS-BAS NDRCC
ESPAGNE INTA (RTO/AGARD Publications) Carretera de Torrejon a Ajalvir, Pk.4 28850 Torrejon de Ardoz - Madrid
ETATS-UNIS NASA Center for AeroSpace Information (CASI) Parkway Center, 7121 Standard Drive Hanover, MD 21076-1320
FRANCE O.N.E.R.A. (Direction) 29, Avenue de la Division Leclerc 92322 Châtillon Cedex
GRECE Hellenic Air Force Air War College Scientific and Technical Library Dekelia Air Force Base
DGM/DWOO P.O. Box 20701 2500 ES Den Haag
PORTUGAL Estado Maior da Força Aérea SDFA - Centra de Documentaçao Alfragide P-2720 Amadora
ROYAUME-UNI Defence Research Information Centre Kentigem House 65 Brown Street Glasgow G2 8EX
TURQUIE Millî Savunma Baskanligi (MSB) ARGE Dairesi Bavkanligi (MSB) 06650 Bakanliklar - Ankara
Dekelia, Athens TGA 1010 AGENCES DE VENTE
NASA Center for AeroSpace Information (CASI)
Parkway Center 7121 Standard Drive Hanover, MD 21076-1320 Etats-Unis
The British Lihrary Document Supply Centre
Boston Spa, Wetherby West Yorkshire LS23 7BQ Royaume-Uni
Canada Institute for Scientific and Technical Information (CISTI)
National Research Council Document Delivery, Montreal Road, Building M-55 Ottawa KlA OS2 Canada
Les demandes de documents RT0 ou AGARD doivent comporter la dénomination “RTO” ou “AGARD” selon le cas, suivie du numéro de série (par exemple AGARD-AG-315). Des informations analogues, telles que le titre et la date de publication sont souhaitables. Des références bibliographiques complètes ainsi que des résumés des publications RT0 et AGARD figurent dans les journaux suivants:
Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports (STAR) STAR peut être consulté en ligne au localisateur de ressources uniformes (URL) suivant:
http://www.sti.nasa.gov/Pubs/star/Star.html STAR est édité par CAS1 dans le cadre du programme NASA d’information scientifique et technique (STI) ST1 Program Office, MS 157A NASA Langley Research Center Hampton, Virginia 2368 l-0001 Etats-Unis
Government Reports Announcements & Index (GRA&I) publié par le National Technical Information Service Springfield Virginia 2216 Etats-Unis (accessible également en mode interactif dans la base de données bibliographiques en ligne du NTIS, et sur CD-ROM)
Imprimé par le Groupe Communication Canada Inc. (membre de la Corporation St-Joseph)
45, boul. Sacré-Cœur, Hull (Québec), Canada KIA OS7
NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY ORGANIZATION
RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY ORGANIZATION
BP 25 l 7 RUE ANCELLE
F-92201 NEUILLY-SUR-SEINE CEDEX l FRANCE
Telefax 0(1)55.61.22.99 l Telex 610 176
DISTRIBUTION OF UNCLASSIFIED
RT0 PUBLICATIONS
NATO’s Research and Technology Organization (RTO) holds limited quantities of some of its recent publications and those of the former AGARD (Advisory Group for Aerospace Research & Development of NATO), and these may be available for purchase in hard copy form. For more information, Write or send a telefax to the address given above. Please do not telephone.
Further copies are sometimes available from the National Distribution Centres listed below. If you wish to receive’all RT0 publications, or just those relating to one or more specific RT0 Panels, they may be willing to include you (or your organisation) in their distribution.
RT0 and AGARD publications may be purchased from the Sales Agencies listed below, in photocopy or microfiche form. Original copies of some publications may be available from CASI.
NATIONAL DISTRIBUTION CENTRES BELGIUM LUXEMBOURG
Coordinateur RT0 - VSL/RTO See Belgium Etat-Major de la Force Aérienne Quartier Reine Elisabeth NETHERLANDS
Rue d’Evere, B-1140 Bruxelles NDRCC DGM/DWOO
CANADA P.O. Box 20701 Director Research & Development
Information Management - DRDIM 3 2500 ES Den Haag
Dept of National Defence NORWAY Ottawa, Ontario KlA OK2 Norwegian Defence Research Establishrnent
DENMARK Attn: Biblioteket
Danish Defence Research Establishment P.O. Box 25
Ryvangs Allé 1 N-2007 Kjeller
P.O. Box 2715 PORTUGAL DK-2100 Copenhagen 0 Estado Maior da Força Aérea
FRANCE SDFA - Centro de Documentaçao O.N.E.R.A. (Direction) Alfragide 29 Avenue de la Division Leclerc P-2720 Amadora 92322 Châtillon Cedex SPAIN
GERMANY INTA (RTO/AGARD Publications) Fachinformationszentrum Karlsruhe D-76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen 2
Carretera de Torrejon a Ajalvir, Pk.4 28850 Torrejon de Ardoz - Madrid
GREECE Hellenic Air Force
TURKEY
Air War College Millî Savunma Ba~kanligi (MSB)
Scientific and Technical Library ARGE Dairesi Baakanligi (MSB)
Dekelia Air Force Base 06650 Bakanliklar - Ankara
Dekelia, Athens TGA 1010 UNITED KINGDOM ICELAND Defence Research Information Centre
Director of Aviation Kentigern House c/o Flugrad 65 Brown Street Reykjavik Glasgow G2 8EX
ITALY UNITED STATES Aeronautica Militare Ufficio Stralcio RTO/AGARD
NASA Center for AeroSpace Information (CASI)
Aeroporto Pratica di Mare Parkway Center, 7121 Standard Drive
00040 Pomezia (Roma) Hanover, MD 21076-1320
SALES AGENCIES NASA Center for AeroSpace
Information (CASI) Parkway Center 7121 Standard Drive Hanover, MD 21076-1320 United States
The British Lihrary Document Supply Centre
Boston Spa, Wetherby West Yorkshire LS23 7BQ United Kingdom
Canada Institute for Scientifk and Technical Information (CISTI)
National Research Council Document Delivery, Montreal Road, Building M-55 Ottawa KlA OS2 Canada
Requests for RT0 or AGARD documents should include the word ‘RTO’ or ‘AGARD’, as appropriate, followed by the serial number (for example AGARD-AG-315). Collateral information such as title and publication date is desirable. Full bibliographical references and abstracts of RT0 and AGARD publications are given in the following joumals:
Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports (STAR) Government Reports Announcements & Index (GRA&I) STAR is available on-line at the following uniform published by the National Technical Information Service resource locator: Springfield
http://www.sti.nasa.gov/Pubs/star/Star.html Virginia 22161 STAR is published by CAS1 for the NASA Scientific United States and Technical Information (STI) Program (also available online in the NTIS Bibliographie ST1 Program Office, MS 157A Database or on CD-ROM) NASA Langley Research Center Hampton, Virginia 23681-0001 United States
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Printed by Canada Communication Group Inc.
(A St. Joseph Corporation Company) 45 Sacré-Cœur Blvd., Hull (Québec), Canada KlA OS7
ISBN 92-837-1015-O