land-ocean interactions in the coastal zone - hzgand ultimately to coastal seas. as a result, carbon...

INPRINT 2010/2 1

Scientifi c Highlight: Spotting the future of nutrient fl uxes to global coasts: Linking Watersheds to Coastal Marine Ecosystems: Global Nutrient River Export Trajectories 1970-2050

Affi liates: towards adaptation to future global and climate change – highlighting the regio-nal scale: (NOSCCA). North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (EPOCA) Guide to best practices for ocean aci-difi cation research and data reporting now available online. (RADOST)Regional Adaptation Strategies for the German Baltic Sea Coast

PT2: More budgets, more regional picturesLOICZ Biogeochemical Model in Medi-terranean Lagoons. Nutrient Budgets for Large Chinese Estuaries

PT3: Fifth Global Conference on Oceans, Coasts and Islands

CCA: Nutrients, HABs and Fisheries – where will we go in future: Land-based Nut-rient Pollution and the Relationship to Harmful Algal Blooms in Coastal Marine Systems

SSC: NewsNew Regional NodeLOICZ Open Science Conference 2011

Coastal Snapshot: American Samoa: A Wealth of Natural and Cultural Resources

Storm Surges Congress 2010Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges13–17 September, 2010, University of Hamburg, Germany

www.loicz.org

Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone

2010 · Issue 2ISSN 2070-2442

2

Publication details

The LOICZ Newsletter is produced three times per year to provide news and information regarding LOICZ - related activities. The views and opinions in this newsletter do not necessarily represent the position of LOICZ or its sponsoring organizations.

Published and edited by:

Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone International Project Offi ce

Printing and layout:

GKSS Research Centre Geesthacht, Germany, LOICZ IPO Bianca Seth, Barbe Goldberg

Photographs and illustration:

The illustration of the coastal zone on the front page is made by artist Glynn Gorick, UK, 2005 and commissioned by LOICZ/IGBP. The photographs on the front and back page of this newsletter are copyright to Martin Le Tissier.

Contact:

GKSS Research Centre, LOICZ IPOInstitute for Coastal ResearchMax-Planck-Str. 1 21502 Geesthacht, Germanyphone: +494152 87-2009 . fax: +494152 87-2040e-mail: [email protected] . URL: www.loicz.org

© Copyright 2010, Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone, Core project of IGBP and IHDP

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Seite

4 LOICZ People

5 Scientifi c Highlights

14 LOICZ-Affi liated Activities

19 Priority Topic 2

21 Priority Topic 3

22 Cross Cutting Activity

24 LOICZ SSC News

24 LOICZ Regional Nodes

26 IPO Notes

29 Publications

30 Coastal Snapshot

32 Have you seen?

34 Calendar

Content

4

LOICZ People

LOICZ Scientifi c

Steering Committee

Alice Newton (Chair) – NorwayCenter for Ecological EconomicsNorwegian Institute for Air Research

Tim Carruthers – USACenter for Environmental ScienceUniversity of Maryland

Zhongyuan Chen – ChinaState Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research/Department of Geography

Valerie Cummins – IrelandCoastal and Marine Resources CentreUniversity College Cork

Antonio C. Diegues – BrazilResearch Center on Human Population and EnvironmentUniversity of Sao Paulo

Marion Glaser – GermanyCenter for Tropical Marine EcologyBremen

Bernhard Glaeser – GermanyGerman Society for Human Ecology (DGH)

Bruce Glavovic – New ZealandMassey UniversityResource & Environmental Planning Programme

Remigius W.P.M. Laane – NetherlandsDeltares, Delft

Laurence D. Mee – UKDirector of SAMS

Stephen B. Olsen – USACoastal Resources CenterUniversity of Rhode Island

Ramachandran Ramesh – IndiaInstitute for Ocean ManagementAnna University

Dennis P. Swaney – USADepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary BiologyCornell University

Eric Wolanski – AustraliaCoastal Oceanography GroupAustralian Institute of Marine Science

Masumi Yamamuro – JapanGraduate School of Frontier SciencesUniversity of Tokyo

LOICZ Regional IPO Nodes

Southeast Asia Regional Node – SingaporeBeverly GohNational Institute of EducationNanyang Technological University

East Asia Regional Node – ChinaCheng TangYantai Institute of Coastal Zone ResearchChinese Academy of Sciences

South Asia Node – IndiaRamachandran Ramesh Institute for Ocean ManagementAnna University

Europe-MENA and PALOP – PortugalLuis ChicharoInternational Centre for Coastal Ecohydrology

West Africa – GhanaChris GordonCentre of African WetlandsUniversity of Ghana

LOICZ IPO

Hartwig H. KremerChief Executive Offi [email protected]

Juergen WeichselgartnerSenior Science [email protected]

Ellen-Barbe GoldbergCommunications ManagerEditorial: LOICZ website and [email protected]

Christiane HagemannOffi ce Administration, [email protected]

Marcus LangeCongress ManagerContact: affi liated [email protected]

Götz FlöserContributing Scientist, Various Activities and links to GKSS Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Centrefl [email protected]

Address updates and subscriptionPlease use the LOICZ online database for address updates and subscription to the LOICZ newsletter. If you have any questions, please contact the IPO at [email protected] This newsletter is also available online at www.loicz.org

LOICZ in brief

LOICZ aims to provide science that contributes towards understanding the Earth system in order to inform, educa-te and contribute to the sustainability of the world‘s coastal zone. LOICZ is a Core Project of the International Geop-sphere-Biospere Programme (IGBP) and the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP).The LOICZ IPO is hosted by the Institute for Coastal Research at GKSS Research Centre which is part of the Helmholtz Foundation.

LOICZ research as outlined in the sci-ence plan and implementation strategy is organised around fi ve themes:• Vulnerability of coastal systems and

hazards to society• Implications of global change for

coastal eco-systems and sustainable development

• Human infl uences on river-basin-coastal zone interaction

• Biogeochemical cycles of coastal and shelf waters

• Towards coastal system sustainabi-lity by man aging land-ocean interac-tions

The Science Plan and Implementation Strategy is available electronically on the LOICZ website and in hard copy at the LOICZ IPO.

www.loicz.org

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world. One primary goal of this work is to stimulate fruitful collaborations between the oceanographic community and limnologists and terrestrial ecologists in order to improve understanding of coupled impacts of marine processes and riverine inputs on carbon, biogeochemistry and ecosystem functioning on the continental shelf.

There is growing recognition of the distinct and inter-related impacts on coastal ecosystems caused by multiple nutrient elements and forms (Seitzinger et al. 2005). Phosphorus and silica, rather than nitrogen, can limit primary production. Changes in element ratios may lead to shifts in community composition as a result of contrasting nutrient requirements. Moreover, individual nutrient forms are characterised by different bioavailabilities and retention mechanisms. The Global NEWS models address this challenge. The fi rst gene-ration of NEWS models was used to model river export of dissolved and particulate forms of inorganic and organic nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and carbon (C) under contem-porary (mid 1990s) conditions, including human pressures. The various model components were published in a spe-cial section of Global Biogeochemical Cycles (Beusen et al. 2005; Dumont et al. 2005; Harrison, Seitzinger et al. 2005; Seitzinger et al. 2005).

Since then, the NEWS models have been further devel-oped (Mayorga et al. 2010) and are now being used to provide hindcasts and forecasts under a range of scenarios portraying changes in nutrient, carbon and water inputs to coastal systems. Results of this analysis are presented in a suite of papers in a special issue of Global Biogeochemical Cycles. Three papers describe the drivers of the NEWS model: the development of the nutrient inputs to watersheds from agricultural (Bouwman et al. 2009) and urban wastewater (Van Drecht et al. 2009) sources, and climate and hydro-logical alterations for the past and future trends (Fekete et al. 2010). (Seitzinger et al. 2010) provide an overview of the

Human activities on land have markedly altered the export of dissolved and particulate nutrients from land to rivers and ultimately to coastal seas. As a result, carbon produc-tion, ecology, and circulation in the coastal ocean have been altered in ways that are still being discovered. Anthro poge -n ic drivers, which include increased population, food production, sewage emissions and fossil fuel combustion, have led to both increased mobilisation of reactive nutrients and alterations of hydrological systems, including rivers (Meybeck & Vörösmarty, 2005). These alterations have in-turn been associated with a number of coastal problems, including increased frequency and severity of hypoxic or anoxic conditions leading to fi sh kills, increased frequency and severity of harmful algal blooms, and a general loss of biodiversity, among others.

Addressing this challenge will require improved understand-ing of the linkages between human activities in watersheds, delivery of nutrients and water inputs to coastal systems, and the effects of those changes on coastal systems. Uneven spatial distribution of human population, agriculture, and industrial activity leads to uneven distribution of anthropo-genic alterations of nutrient inputs to coastal ecosystems. While many site-specifi c studies have documented river transport of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), carbon (C) and silicon (Si) to coastal systems, there are many more rivers for which there are no measurements; sustained monitoring of time-varying exports is rarer still. In order to provide region-al and global perspectives on changing nutrient transport to coastal systems throughout the world, the international Global Nutrient Export from Water-Sheds (NEWS) work group of UNESCO-IOC (http://marine.rutgers.edu/globalnews/index.htm), a project affi liated to LOICZ, was formed in spring 2002. The aim of Global NEWS has been to develop a spatially explicit global watershed model framework that relates human activities and natural processes in waters-heds to nutrient inputs to coastal systems throughout the

Linking Watersheds to Coastal Marine Ecosystems: Global Nutrient River

Export Trajectories 1970-2050

Scientific Highlights

Lex Bouwman

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, P.O. Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands

Department of Earth Sciences – Geochemistry, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht Univer-sity, P.O. Box 80.021, 3508 TA Utrecht, The Netherlands

John Harrison

Washington State University, School of Earth and Environ-mental Sciences, 14204 NE Salmon Creek Avenue, Vancouver, WA 98686, USA

Sybil Seitzinger International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Box 50005, SE-104 05 Stockholm, Sweden

Emilio Mayorga

Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Box 355640, Seattle, WA 98105-6698 USA

6

past and future (1970-2050) trajectories of river nutrient export, while detailed patterns in river nutrient export among watersheds within a continent are presented for Africa (Yasin et al. 2010) and South America (Van der Struijk & Kroeze 2010). Other papers present the recent NEWS model-DSi modelfor dissolved silica (Beusen et al. 2009), regional anddownscaled global scenarios of future river export (Thieu et al. 2010), an application of the NEWS-DIP model at high resolution (Harrison et al. 2010), and application of the NEWS-DIN to past conditions in the Changjiang Basin (Yan et al. 2010). Consequences of the scenarios for patterns of autotrophy and heterotrophy in world watersheds are presented in Billen et al. (2010). Changes in nutrient ratios over time and their implications for coastal ecosystem effects are discussed in Garnier et al. (2010) based on the recently developed Index for Coastal Eutrophication Potential (ICEP) (Billen & Garnier, 2007).

In this article we briefl y describe the NEWS model and present highlights from the published results, focusing on river exports and fate in the coastal zone.

Global NEWS Model Environment (GNE)

The global NEWS framework includes river-basin scale models for predicting export of dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus (DIN, DIP), dissolved organic carbon, nit-rogen and phosphorus (DOC, DON, DOP), total suspended solids (TSS), particulate organic carbon (POC), particulatenitrogen and phosphorus (PN and PP), and dissolved silica (DSi) (Figure 1 and 2). NEWS sub-models represent a hybrid of empirical, statistical and mechanistic model components and include both natural and anthropogenic infl uences. Dissolved nutrient sub-models are broadly based on a mass-balance approach for the land surface (watershed) and river system, while particulate sub-models are largely statistical and based on a multiple linear regression and several single-regression relationships developed by Global NEWS or taken from the literature. For dissolved forms, inputs into watersheds and rivers are assessed from fl uxes (estimated through bottom-up, spatially distributed calculations based on land use types, regional agronomic and sanitation statistics, and atmospher-ic transport and deposition models); terrestrial retention

MEAStorylines

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transport models ensemble

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Figure 1: Scheme showing the input data and information fl ows into the NEWS models for the retrospective analysis 1970-2000 and assessment of scenarios for 2030 and 2050 based on the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA). Additional spatially explicit information used in the NEWS models, such as basins and river networks, cell and land areas, continents, lithology, topography, are not shown in this scheme. A full list of datasets is given Mayorga et al. (2010). Figure reprinted from Seitzinger et al. (2010)

INPRINT 2010/2 7

parameterizations (dependent on runoff), and a refi nement of the export coeffi cient approach (based on modulation by runoff) (Mayorga et al. 2010).

NEWS model output is currently annual export at the mouth of the river, though this has been enhanced for NEWS-DIP (Harrison et al. 2010). Natural and anthropogenic nutrient

sources in watersheds, hydrological and physical factors, and in-river N and P removal are important model components. Since the fi rst generation NEWS model, there have been a number of revisions (Mayorga et al. 2010), and a model for si-mulating dissolved inorganic silica (NEWS-DSi) has been devel-oped (Beusen et al. 2009). The models were re-calibrated with input data for the year 2000 using internally consistent model drivers (Mayorga et al. 2010).

Global NEWS Model Drivers

Global NEWS uses various anthropogenic drivers for retro-spective analysis (1970-2000) and for future years (2000-2050) as input to the NEWS models (Figure 3). The Integrated Model for the Assessment of the Global Environment (IMAGE) (Bouwman et al. 2006) was used to de velop the input data-sets for the NEWS model future scenarios. Data from many different sources were used to calibrate the energy, climate and land-use variables in IMAGE over the period 1970-2000. Although IMAGE 2.4 is global in application with data and scenarios at the scale of 24 world regions, it performs many of its calculations on a terrestrial 0.5 by 0.5 degree resolution (crop yields and crop distribution, land cover, land-use emis-sions, nutrient surface balances and C cycle).

Four Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) scenari-os were implemented to analyze possible future trends in coastal nutrient delivery. The MEA scenarios are based on storylines and translated into the changes of the main an-thropogenic drivers, i.e. demography, economic develop-ment and agricultural (crop and animal) production (Alca-mo et al. 2006) (Figure 3). The original MEA storylines and scenarios lack descrip tions of nutrient management in agriculture. The MEA story lines were therefore interpreted to generate four quantitative nutrient management scena-rios on the scale of the IMAGE model (Figure 1) (Bouw-man et al. 2009). Apart from population and economicgrowth (Figure 3a and b), food consumption and production(Figure 3c and 3d) and trade, the MEA scenarios differ in terms of environmental management (pro-active or re active) and in the degree and scale of connectedness among and

within institutions across country borders (globalisation or regionalisa-tion) (Alcamo et al. 2006). Scenarios called “Technogarden” and “Adapting Mosaic” were developed assuming pro-active environmental manage-ment, while scenarios called “Order from Strength” and “Global Orches-tration” assume re-active environ-mental management. Global Orches-tration and Technogarden refl ect trends towards globalisation, while regionalisation is assumed in Order from Strength and Adapting Mosaic.

For agricultural areas NEWS-DIN and NEWS-DIP use the net surface N and P balances in agriculture as input. These surface balances are based on the N and P inputs from fertili-ser use, animal manure application, N2-fi xation by crops, atmospheric N deposition, and sewage N and P (in

some scenarios), minus N and P removal terms from crop harvest and animal grazing. These fl uxes are calculated in the IMAGE model by land-use type, crop characteristics, animal type, and national agricultural information as detailed in Bou-wman et al. (2009). The regional scenarios for the use of N and P fertilisers are based on fertiliser use effi ciency of N and P in crop production (Figure 3e). For the year 2030 we use regional data from the Agriculture Towards 2030 study (Bruinsma, 2003) as a basis. Manure production is computed from the livestock production (Figure 3d), animal numbers and excretion rates, and distributed over different animal manure management systems (Bouwman et al. 2009). For natural ecosystems the inputs include biological N2 fi xation and atmospheric nitrogen deposition. Net uptake by natural vegetation is ignored, assuming that these systems would not have a net accumulation of biomass (Bouwman et al. 2009).

Figure 2: Maps of yields (kg km-2 yr-1) for the year 2000, for each N (left), P (center) and C (right) nutrient form. A common legend is used for all forms in each element, and the same color ramp and number of classes are used across all forms (fi gure reprinted from Mayorga et al. 2010).

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N and P fl ows in urban wastewater (Figure 1) are based on country-level data and estimates for the period 1970 to 2000. Wastewater discharge to surface water is the sewage effl uent after wastewater treatment. For the years 2030 and 2050 the calculated infl uents to wastewater treatment systems (if any) are computed from per capita incomes (Figure 3b), and stem from human N and P emissions and P-based detergent use (Van Drecht et al. 2009). Here we use the country popu lation and GDP data from MEA (Alcamo et al. 2006). The MEA scenario storylines were inter-preted to generate scenarios differing in the degree of access to improved sanitation, connection to sewage systems (Figure 3f) and the nutrient removal in wastewater treatment systems (Van Drecht et al. 2009). In Global Orchestration and Tech-nogarden scenarios the fraction of the population with a sewage con-nection is assumed to grow faster than in Order from Strength and Adapting Mosaic (Figure 3f), refl ec-ting faster economic growth and slow er population growth in Global Orchestration and Technogarden.

For atmospheric N deposition we use the data from an ensemble of atmospheric chemistry-transport models presented by Dentener et al. (2006) for the year 2000 as a basis. To ensure consistency between MEA scenario-derived N emissi-on estimates and the deposition patterns of Dentener et al. (2006), we scaled the deposition fi elds for 2000 using gaseous N emission estimates generated by the IMAGE model (Bouwman et al. 2006) from fossil fuel combustion, agricul-tural and natural biological sources for the period 1970-2000 and scenarios for 2000-2050 as detailed in Bouwman et al. (2009).

Part of the IMAGE output feeds into the NEWS models through the Water Balance Model WBMplus (Figure 1). Scenarios for hydropower production, monthly temperature and precipita-tion data, and land use, irrigated and rainfed crop production areas from the IMAGE model are used by WBMplus to devel op scenarios for the construction of reservoirs (dams) and con-sumptive water use and irrigation, to generate monthly river water discharge (Fekete et al. 2010) (Figure 1) which is an important input to the NEWS model.

All information from the above gridded input data (0.5 x 0.5 degree) are passed on to the NEWS models after lumping to

the river basin scale. In total 5761 distinct exoreic basins are modelled by NEWS. All NEWS models predict nutrient export at the mouth of the rivers as a function of these inputs and biophysical properties of their basins. The contribution of the watershed nutrient sources to river N and P export is analyed and linked back to changing socio-economic, agricultural, and other practices in the watersheds.

Recent Global Trends

Global trends in river nutrient export result from changes in human drivers and hydrology. The increased river export of DIN for the period 1970-2000 at the global scale is largely associated with changes in agriculture, particularly increased N inputs due to fertiliser use and animal production (Figure 4). Sewage and atmospheric deposition of ammonia and ni-trogen oxides from agriculture, energy and industry contribu-te to a lesser extent to the increased river DIN export. Increa-ses in DIP can be explained by increased inputs of P to rivers primarily from sewage and to a lesser extent from agriculture (Figure 5). Increased export of particulate forms is associ-ated with erosion and land use change. This not only holds for particulate forms of P, but also of N and C. River export of particulate N, P and C is not as large as one would expect from erosion trends alone because increased damming of rivers traps a portion of the mobilised particulates, pre venting them from being transported to coastal waters.

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Figure 3: Anthropogenic drivers of nutrient fl ows for 8 world regions for 1970, 2000, and for 2030 for the Global Orchestration (GO) and Adapting Mosaic (AM) scenarios. Data taken directly from MEA (Alcamo et al. 2006) on the scale of the 24 world regions of IMAGE include: a) population, b) per capita gross domestic product, c) crop production expressed as dry matter; d) meat and milk production in dry matter. Values computed in this study, used as indirect drivers, include: e) the percentage of the population with a sewage connection from Van Drecht et al. (2009); and f) overall agricultural effi ciency (including crop and livestock production systems) of nitrogen use from Bouwman et al. (2009); this effi ciency is from a surface balance perspecti-ve, ignoring imports and exports of fertilisers, feedstuffs, agricultural products, and other N- and P-bearing materials (fi gure reprinted from Seitzinger et al. 2010).

INPRINT 2010/2 9

There are large differences in recent trends between world regions. It is clear that river nutrient export is larger and in-creasing much more rapidly in South Asia than in other world regions (Figures 4 and 5). South Asia also shows the largest change in the relative contribution of watershed N sources to DIN export of all the continents. In 1970, the pattern of source contributions in South Asia was closer to that of less developed continents (South America and Africa). By 2000, however, DIN sources to South Asian rivers were more similar to developed regions than to less developed regions.

River export of all forms of N, P and C increased during the thirty year period between 1970 and 2000 at the global scale Figure 6). However, the forms responded differently. Rela-tively large increases (about 30 %) were calculated for dis-solved inorganic N and P, while particulate loads increased by only about 10 %. For dissolved organic nutrients increases were very modest (<5 %). For the year 2000 we calculate an 16 % increase in TN export by rivers over 1970 levels (43 Tg of total N (DIN + DON + PN) exported by rivers in 2000 versus 37 Tg N in 1970).Our estimate for 1970 is in good agreement with an estimate for global river TN export for 1970 based on a compilation of measured data for world rivers by Meybeck (1982). This increase in TN over time can be largely explained by a 35 % increase in DIN export from 14 to 19 Tg N/y. About 40 % of the N in river export is DIN.

For DIP the trend is similar to that of DIN: a 29 % global in-crease between 1970 and 2000 (Figure 5). The largest ab-solute increase in P load is calculated for particulate P alt-hough it increased by only 13 % between 1970 and 2000. This is because particulate P is the dominant form (5.9 Tg P in 2000) of total P export (7.6 Tg P in 2000) by world rivers (Figure 6). NEWS model estimates for 1970 for DIN and DON

(14 and 10 Tg N, respectively) and dissolved P (1.7 Tg P) are in good agreement with estimates for global river export for 1970 by Meybeck (1982) (12 Tg N (DIN), 10 Tg N (DON) and 2 Tg P (dissolved P)). Our estimates for PN and PP (12 Tg N and 6 Tg P) are considerably lower than Meybeck’s (21 Tg N and 20 Tg P), which were based on a POC budget and assumed fi xed N: C: P ratios. The NEWS models calculate PN and PP as a function of TSS in rivers, which we consider a more appro-priate approach.

Future Global Trends

The differences among scenarios in river nutrient export are considerable (Figure 4), suggesting that plausible trajec-tories could have very different implications for coastal nut-rient load ing and hence coastal ecosystem health. For DIN an up to 18 % increase in river export is projected for the Global Orchestration and Order from Strength scenarios which assume a reactive approach towards environmental change. In contrast, a decrease in the global river DIN export is projected for both scenarios with a proactive approach towards environmental change (Technogarden and Adapting Mosiac).

While South Asia, Africa and Latin America show rapidly in-creasing future export of N and P, refl ecting the fast popula-tion growth and economic development expected to occur in these regions, Europe shows a decreasing trend (Figures 4 and 5). This is the result of the small projected popula tion change compared to that in developing countries in conj-unction with nutrient management strategies. North America shows an erratic pattern following the scenarios for popula-tion growth.

Manure is the most important global contributor to the in crease in river DIN export between 2000-2030 in the Global Orchestration scenario(Figure 4f), which is consistent with the high per capita meat consumpti-on in this scenario. Although the con-tribution from manure also increases in the Adapting Mosaic scenario, the contribution from fertiliser shows a decrease, resulting in the net decre-ase in river DIN export in the Adapt-ing Mosaic scenario (Figure 4f). This follows from the assumptions in Ad-apting Mosaic which focus on cheap and simple solutions such as a better integration of animal manure in agri-cultural production systems and re-cycling of human excreta, leading to a reduction of synthetic fertiliser use.

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Increases in global river export of DIP are projected in all scenarios (Figu-re 5). Increases in sewage, fertiliser, P-based detergents, and manure all contribute to the increase in DIP ri-ver export in Global Orchestration (GO in Figure 5). All of these sources increase in Adapting Mosaic, but to a lesser extent, resulting in a smaller increase in river DIP export by 2030 than in Global Orchestration. As no-ted above, reduction in synthetic fer-tiliser use in Adapting Mosaic is the result of better integration of nutrient sources in agriculture. The smaller contribution to DIP export from se-wage in Adapting Mosaic relative to Global Orchestration is a result of the much slower increase of connection of households to sewage systems in the Adapting Mosaic scenario than in the Global Orchestration scenario.

For dissolved organic N and P (DON and DOP) increasing trends are projected in all four scenarios (Figure 6), but the anticipated changes are small, at least at the global scale: the projected 2030 loads differ 1-6 % from the 2000 load. Although the absolute increases in DON and DOP loads are small, the relative magnitude of different sources change which may affect proportion of the DOM export that is bioavailable once it enters the coastal ecosystem (Seitzin-ger et al. 2002). For DOC small decreases are projected for the period 2000-2030 (Figure 6). The projected changes in river export of DOC is largely due to anticipated changes in river discharge and extent of wetlands (Harrison, Caraco et al. 2005), which control DOC export in the NEWS model and change only slowly in the scenarios.

For particulate forms we project decreasing river export for all scenarios. By 2030 the loads of PN, PP and POC are calcu-lated to be up to 11 % lower than in 2000 (Figure 6). This is in contrast with the period 1970-2000, for which we calculate a 10 % increase. Both the increasing trends in the past, and the decreasing trends in the future result from are the net ef-fect of increasing inputs of particulates in rivers as a result of land use and erosion, and increased trapping of particulates in reservoirs in rivers. In future years, the scenarios assume increasing numbers of reservoirs in rivers due to construction of dams for irrigation and hydropower. Minor projected chan-ges in global DSi export are comparable to those of TSS and the particulate nutrient forms, and primarily a result of dam construction.

Clearly increasing coastal nutrient enrichment indicated by NEWS scenario runs will have important implications for coastal ecosystem structure and function. However, changes

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Figure 5: Model predicted contribution of phosphorus sources in watersheds to DIP river export for various regions and globally. GO and AM refer to Global Orchestration and Adapting Mosaic scenarios, respectively (fi gure reprinted from Seitzinger et al. 2010).

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Figure 6: Change in river export of dissolved inorganic N (DIN) and P (DIP) to coastal waters between 1970 and 2000, and between 2000 and 2030 for the four MEA scenarios (top), change of river export dissolved organic nutrients (DON, DOP, DOC) (middle) and change in river export of particulate nitrogen (PN), particulate phosphorus (PP) and particulate organic carbon (POC) (bottom). Note differences in scales. Units: Tg N, P or C yr-1 (fi gure reprinted from Seitzinger et al. 2010).

INPRINT 2010/2 11

in ratios of nutrients delivered to the coastal zone are also likely to impact coastal ecosystem function. As different phytoplankton have different nutrient requirements (notably diatoms require greater amounts of Si than other phytoplank-ton species) changing nutrient ratios could signifi cantly alter patterns of coastal primary production. Using the indicator of coastal eutrophication potential (ICEP) concept (Billen & Garnier 2007) along with NEWS-based scenarios, it is now possible to assess the risk that non-diatom algal growth may lead to harmful algal blooms in coastal marine ecosystems. ICEP is an indicator for the potential of riverine nutrients to sustain new production of non-diatom phytoplankton bio-mass; it is calculated by comparing the N, P and Si loading to the Redfi eld ratio expressing the requirements of marine diatom growth. Positive values of ICEP indicate an excess of N or P over Si which may lead to blooms of non-diatom, possibly harmful species. Garnier et al. (2010) indicate that the result of these simultaneous changes of N:P:Si is an increasing ICEP value in all scenarios, indicating an increasing risk that severe problems associated with eutrophication will occur (Figure 7).

River basins with positive ICEP values, expressed by the land area draining into the world’s oceans, increase in all scena-rios. This increase is more rapid in the Global Orchestration than in the Adapting Mosaic scenario, particularly for rivers draining into the Atlantic, Indian and Pacifi c oceans (Figure 7). Of course, local physical and environmental conditions will, apart from nutrient loading and element ratios used in the ICEP concept, determine the propensity of a coastal ma-rine ecosystem to develop high biomass and otherwise harm-ful algal blooms, or hypoxia, but the ICEP approach indicates that in many regions, nutrient ratios are trending toward fa-vouring potentially harmful, non-diatom phytoplankton growth.The contrasting trends between the dissolved inorganic, dis-solved organic and particulate N, P and C compounds refl ect the differential effect of various drivers (both anthropogenic and natural) in controlling river export of different elements and forms. Differential responses of nutrients and nutrient forms to anticipated changes in nutrient loading patterns and climate also illustrate that an integrated approach is needed in order to develop effective nutrient management strategies to control river nutrient export to coastal systems.

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Figure 7: Indicator of Coastal Eutrophication Potential (ICEP) calculated for the year 2000 (top) and fraction of land area with river basins draining into the world’s oceans with ICEP >0 for 2000-2050 for Global orchestration (bottom left) and Adapting Mosaic (bottom right) scenarios (fi gure reprinted from Seitzinger et al. 2010).

12

Future of Global NEWS

The Global NEWS model framework is serves as a starting point for ongoing and future enhancements, and for collabo-rations with other Earth System and policy efforts. Coastal degradation is a global-scale problem that requires the promotion of regional expertise. With support from UNESCO-IOC and the Global Environmental Facility (GEF), we have carried out training workshops for scientists from develop-ing countries and countries with economies in transition, fostering capacity building through the transfer of advanced methods, practices and tools for coastal nutrient manage-ment. In addition to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenario thrust, we are extending the model to sub-basin and sub-annual scales in a project funded by NASA and led by the University of New Hampshire’s Water Systems Analysis Group (WSAG, www. wsag.unh.edu), and partnering with US EPA to apply NEWS models to watersheds in the continental US and examine implications of N loading and re-moval for N-related ecosystem services. To directly link human activities on land to coastal responses, we are developing relati-onships between river nutrient inputs and quantitative indicators of coastal ecosystem health, at regional to global scales. Integration of these Global NEWS activities with other terrest-rial and oceanographic efforts will be greatly facilitated by our participation in the recently launched Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS, www.csdms.colorado.edu), which is focusing on interoperability among models spanning the transport of water, sediments and constituents from the land surface to the continental shelf. Global NEWS also is coordinating with Working Group 132 “Land-based Nutrient Pollution and the Relationship to Harmful Algal Blooms in Coastal Marine Systems” of the Scientifi c Com-mittee on Oceanic Research and LOICZ. In this group a glo-bal inventory of nutrient dynamics in aquaculture is being developed to complement the Global NEWS data and analyze relationships between nutrient loading and theoccurrence of harmful algal blooms. Later in 2010, theNEWS work group will hold a meeting to gather input from potential end-users of NEWS. For more informati-on about this, please con tact current NEWS co-chairs John Harrison ([email protected]) or Lex Bouwman ([email protected]).

We are grateful for the fi nancial and institutional support pro-vided by UNESCO-IOC, GEF, NSF, NOAA, NASA and the indi-vidual institutions represented by Global NEWS participants.

References

Alcamo, J., Van Vuuren, D. & Cramer, W. (2006): Changes in eco-system services and their drivers across the scenarios. In: S.R. Car-penter, P.L. Pingali, E.M. Bennett & M.B. Zurek (eds.): Ecosystems and human well-being: scenarios. Island Press, Washington, D.C., pp. 279-354.

Beusen, A.H.W., Bouwman, A.F., Dürr, H.H., Dekkers, A.L.M. & Hartmann, J. (2009): Global patterns of dissolved silica export to the coastal zone: Results from a spatially explicit global model. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 23, doi:10.1029/2008GB003281.

Beusen, A.H.W., Dekkers, A.L.M., Bouwman, A.F., Ludwig, W. & Harrison, J., (2005): Estimation of global river transport of sedi-ments and associated particulate C, N and P. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 19, doi:10.1029/2005GB002453.

Billen, G., Beusen, A.H.W., Bouwman, A.F. & Garnier, J. (2010): Anth-ropogenic nitrogen autotrophy and heterotrophy of the world‘s wa-tersheds: past, present, and future trends. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 23, doi:10.1029/2009GB003702.

Billen, G. & Garnier, J. (2007): River basin nutrient delivery to the coastal sea: Assessing its potential to sustain new production of non-siliceous algae. Marine Chemistry (106): 148-160.

Bouwman, A.F., Beusen, A.H.W. & Billen, G. (2009): Human al-teration of the global nitrogen and phosphorus soil balances for the period 1970-2050. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 23, doi:10.1029/2009GB003576.

Bouwman, A.F., Kram, T. & Klein Goldewijk, K. (2006): Integrated modelling of global environmental change. An overview of IMAGE 2.4. Publication 500110002/2006, Netherlands Environmental As-sessment Agency, Bilthoven, 228 pp.

Bruinsma, J.E. (2003): World agriculture: towards 2015/2030. An FAO perspective. Earthscan, London, 432 pp.

Dentener, F., Stevenson, D., Ellingsen, K., Noije, T.v., Schultz, M., Amann, M., Atherton, C., Bell, N., Bergmann, D., Bey, I., Bouwman, L., Butler, T., Cofala, J., Collins, B., Drevet, J., Doherty, R., Eickhout, B., Eskes, H., Fiore, A., Gauss, M., Hauglustaine, D., Horowitz, L., Isaksen, I.S.A., Josse, B., Lawrence, M., Krol, M., Lamarque, J.F., Montanaro, V., Müller, J.F., Peuch, V.H., Pitari, G., Pyle, J., Rast,

INPRINT 2010/2 13

S., Rodriguez, J., Sanderson, M., Savage, N.H., Shindell, D., Strahan, S., Szopa, S., Sudo, K., Dingenen, R.V., Wild, O. & Zeng, G. (2006): The global atmospheric environment for the next generation. Environment Science and Technology (40): 3586-3594.

Dumont, E., Harrison, J.A., Kroeze, C., Baker, E.J. & Seitzinger, S.P. (2005): Global distribution and sources of dissolved inor-ganic nitrogen export to the coastal zone: results from a spa-tially explicit, global model. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 19, doi:10.1029/2005GB002488.

Fekete, B.M., Wisser, D., Kroeze, C., Bouwman, A.F., Mayorga, E., Wollheim, W.M. & Vörösmarty, C.J. (2010): Millennium Eco-system Assessment Scenario drivers (1970-2050): Climate and hydrological alterations. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 23, doi 10.1029/2009GB3593.

Garnier, J., Beusen, A.H.W., Thieu, V., Billen, G. & Bouwman, A.F. (2010): N:P:Si nutrient export ratios and ecological consequences in coastal seas evaluated by the ICEP approach. Global Biogeochemi-cal Cycles 23, doi:10.1029/2009GB003583.Harrison, J.A., Bouwman, A.F., Mayorga, E. & Seitzinger, S.P. (2010): Magnitudes and sources of dissolved inorganic phosphorus inputs to surface fresh waters and the coastal zone: A new global model. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 24, doi:10.1029/2009GB003590.

Harrison, J.A., Caraco, N. & Seitzinger, S.P. (2005): Global patterns and sources of dissolved organic matter export to the coastal zone: Results from a spatially explicit, global model. Global Biogeochemi-cal Cycles 19, doi:10.1029/2005GB002480.

Harrison, J.A., Seitzinger, S.P., Bouwman, A.F., Caraco, N.F., Beusen, A.H.W. & Vörösmarty, C.J. (2005): Dissolved inorga-nic phosphorus export to the coastal zone: Results from a spa-tially explicit, global model. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 19, doi:10.1029/2004GB002357.

Mayorga, E., Seitzinger, S.P., Harrison, J.A., Dumont, E., Beu-sen, A.H.W., Bouwman, A.F., Fekete, B., Kroeze, C. & Van Drecht, G. (2010): Global Nutrient Export from WaterSheds 2 (NEWS 2): Model development and implementation. Environmental Modelling & Software (25): 837-853.

Meybeck, M. (1982): Carbon, nitrogen and phosphorous transport by world rivers. American Journal of Science (282): 401-450.

Meybeck, M. & Vörösmarty, C.J. (2005): Fluvial fi ltering of land-to-ocean fl uxes: from natural Holocene variations to anthropocene. Comptes Rendus Geoscience 337 (1-2): 107-123.

Seitzinger, S.P., Harrison, J.A., Dumont, E., Beusen, A.H.W. & Bouwman, A.F. (2005): Sources and delivery of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus to the coastal zone: an overview of Global NEWS models and their application. Global Biogeochemical Cy cles 19, doi:10.1029/2004GB002453.

Seitzinger, S.P., Kroeze, C., Bouwman, A.F., Caraco, N., Dentener, F. & Styles, R.V. (2002): Global patterns of dissolved inorganic and particulate nitrogen inputs to coastal systems: Recent conditions and future projections. Estuaries (25): 640-655.

Seitzinger, S.P., Mayorga, E., Bouwman, A.F., Kroeze, C., Beu-sen, A.H.W., Billen, G., Drecht, G.V., Dumont, E., Fekete, B.M., Garnier, J. & Harrison, J.A. (2010): Global river nutrient export: A scenario analysis of past and future trends. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 23, doi:10.1029/2009GB003587.

Thieu, V., Mayorga, E., Billen, G. & Garnier, J. (2010): Sub-regio-nal and downscaled-global scenarios of nutrient transfer in river basins: the Seine-Scheldt-Somme case study. Global Biogeochemi-cal Cycles 24, doi:10.1029/2009GB003561.

Van der Struijk, F. & Kroeze, C. (2010): Future trends in nutrient export to the coastal waters of South America: Implications for occurrence of eutrophication. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 24, doi:10.1029/2009GB003572.

Van Drecht, G., Bouwman, A.F., Harrison, J. & Knoop, J.M. (2009): Global nitrogen and phosphate in urban waste water for the period 1970-2050. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 23, doi:10.1029/2009GB003458.

Yan, W., Mayorga, E., Li, X., Seitzinger, S. & Bouwman, A.F. (2010): Increasing anthropogenic nitrogen inputs and riverine DIN exports from the Changjiang River basin under changing human pressures. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 23, doi:10.1029/2009GB003575.

Yasin, J.A., Kroeze, C. & Mayorga, E. (2010): An African perspective on nutrient inputs to coastal waters. Global Biogeochemical Cy cles, doi:10.1029/2009GB003568.

14

The North Sea and adjacent areas host unique and rich eco-systems, provide numerous services to the human society and mediate important matter fl uxes, which have impacts on regional water quality as well as on climate. In turn, the North Sea and bordering terrestrial landmasses experience transformations in response to anthropogenic activities and global change. Managing authorities, industry, scientists and the public demand for reliable scenarios of those changes. The North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA) will document the scientifi cally legitimate knowl-edge about past and possible future climate change in the North Sea and adjacent areas for a wide range of themes. It will be a complete climate change assessment from pub-lished scientifi c work with a regional IPCC like evaluation and a broader focus on marine and terrestrial ecology and fl uxes of matter. It is an international initiative being pro-posed by the Institute for Coastal Research of the GKSS Research Centre in Germany. The overall product of NOSCCA is an assessment book to be published by Springer in 2014. This assessment will be similar to an initiative for the Baltic Sea basin known as BACC.

Background

The North Sea region hosts unique and rich ecosystems. It is a site of productivity, trade, recreation and regeneration, the gateway to the ocean and the wide world. With this, a found-ation of wealth, of innovation, but also of threat as changes in physical climate, atmospheric gases as well as human in-fl uences (e. g., over-fi shing, species introduction) affect the complex interplay of physical, chemical, biological and geo-logical processes. The dynamic behaviour of such complex systems is hardly understood and only partially documen-ted, because often fragmented observations and modelling studies have been made on the changing climate and its im-pact. The data often do not compare, are inhomogeneous in their informational content, and under the authority of differ-ent agencies and countries. The challenge for a full assess-ment of climate change consists of in fi rst getting access to this scattered knowledge, second of rendering it comparable, and ultimately of preparing an assessment of climate change based on the entire material.

LOICZ Affiliated Activities

North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA)

Satellite Image of the North Sea (Photo: NASA)

Königshafen, Germany (Photo: R. Reshöft)

North Sea Windpark - Source: change-of-climate.com

INPRINT 2010/2 15

Overall Project Format

The climate change assessment will have an objective re-view character and will be based primarily on peer-reviewed published scientifi c work. For some aspects so-called “grey literature” like institute reports needs to be considered as well with a separate quality check procedure. The different topics will be structured into individual chapters, which will be compiled by an international author team chaired by one or two lead authors. All chapters will undergo an external re-view process. An integrated summary for policy makers is to be prepared by the group of lead authors. Overall, it will be a complete climate change assessment with a regional IPCC like evaluation with an enhanced emphasis on marine and terrestrial ecology and fl uxes of matter covering a wide ran-ge of themes compiled by scientifi c experts from the region. The fi nal product is an assessment book to be published by Springer in 2014.

An international Scientifi c Steering Committee (SSC) will overview the climate change assessment. The members of the SSC are scientifi c experts from different climate related disciplines (such as oceanography, atmospheric sciences, cli-matology, biology, marine and terrestrial ecology, fi sheries, marine and atmospheric chemistry, coastal processes/man-agement, economics, sociology). They come mainly but not exclusively from North Sea countries.

Area of Interest and Time Horizon

The North Sea with interface areas to the North Atlantic and the Baltic Sea (Skagerrak, Kattegat) as well as the bounding countries are considered. The North Sea area extent follows the OSPAR defi nition (Greater North Sea). The project is set up to assemble, integrate and assess available knowledge of past (mainly post glacial), current, and expected future (100-300 years) climate change and its impacts.

Topic Areas

A broad range of topics is considered in order to build up a comprehensive view on all aspects of and related to the chang ing climate. Themes to be incorporated are past and current climate change, projection of future anthropogenic climate change, climate related change in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, climate related change in the mari-ne ecosystem based on oceanography, atmospheric science, marine and terrestrial ecology, bio-geochemistry, geology, sociology. Related applied subject areas will include fi sh-eries, coastal management, tourism, marine shipping, polluti-on and energy supply.

Involvement

Participating scientists should come from universities, public research institutions, and international science programmes. A close co-operation with relevant international organisations and here especially LOICZ and ICES is of great importance for the initiative. The assessment will be accompanied by dedica-ted workshops and a summer school is planned. Exchange of information with OSPAR is assessed.

Coordination

The North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment is coor-dinated by the Institute for Coastal Research of the GKSS Research Centre in Germany with support by the LOICZInternational Project Offi ce.

Contact: Markus QuanteMerja SchlüterInstitute for Coastal Research GKSS Research CentreEmail: [email protected]: [email protected]

Harbour Brunsbüttel, Germany (Photo: R. Reshöft)

16

Ocean acidifi cation is an undisputed fact. The ocean present-ly takes up one-fourth of the carbon CO2 emitted to the at-mosphere from human activities. As this CO2 dissolves in the surface ocean, it reacts with seawater to form carbonic acid, increasing ocean acidity and shifting the partitioning of in-organic carbon species towards increased CO2 and dissolved inorganic carbon, and decreased concentration of carbonate ion.

While our understanding of the possible consequences of ocean acidifi cation is still rudimentary, both the scientifi c community and the society at large are increasingly con-cerned about the possible risks associated with ocean aci-difi cation for marine organisms and ecosystems. As this new and pressing fi eld of marine research gains momentum, many in our community, including representatives of coor-dinated research projects, international scientifi c organisa-tions, funding agencies, and scientists in this fi eld felt the need to provide guidelines and standards for ocean acidifi -cation research.

To initiate this process, the European Project on Ocean Aci-difi cation (EPOCA) and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) jointly invited over 40 leading scientists active in ocean acidifi cation research to a meeting at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Science (IFM-GEOMAR) in Kiel, Germany on 19-21 November, 2008. At the meeting, which was sponsored by EPOCA, IOC, the Scientifi c Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR), the U.S. Ocean Carbon and Bio-

geochemistry Project (OCB) and the Kiel Excellence Cluster “The Future Ocean”, the basic structure and contents of the guide was agreed upon and an outline was drafted. In the following months, the workshop participants and additional invited experts prepared draft manuscripts for each of the sections, which were subsequently reviewed by independent experts and revised according to their recommendations. Starting 15 May 2009, the guide was made publicly available for an open community review.

The fi nal version of the guide is now published:

Riebesell U., Fabry V. J., Hansson L. & Gattuso J.-P. (2010): Guide to Best Practices for Ocean Acidifi cation Research and Data Reporting. Publications Offi ce of the European Union, Luxembourg, 260p.

It is available free of charge on the EPOCA web site (http://www.epoca-project.eu/index.php/Home/Guide-to-OA-Research/). It is envisioned to revisit and possibly revise the guide to accommodate new developments in the field ina few years time. Please contact Lina Hansson ([email protected]) at the EPOCA project offi ce to obtain printed copies of the guide.

Guide to best practices for ocean acidifi cation

research and data reporting now available online

INPRINT 2010/2 17

The Baltic coastline of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Schleswig-Holstein is one of seven model regions in Germany that are supported by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) through the funding activity KLIMZUG („Managing climate change in the regions for the future“). The aim of the RADOST project is to develop regional adaptation strategies in a dialogue amongst research institu-tions, business, public administration and civil society. The duration of the project is from July 2009 until June 2014.

The essential idea of the project is to establish a close link-age between research and practice. In addition to a core consortium of 17 partners, RADOST involves a multitude of network partners from research organisations, business, pub lic authorities and non-governmental organisations. At the time of the proposal submission, the RADOST network in-cluded around 60 partners. It will be continuously expanded throughout the course of the project. The regional dialogue is complemented by a national and international information exchange involving partner regions in Europe, North America and North Africa.

Today, millions of Euros per year are already invested in coast al protection in the region. The effi cient usage of these funds requires predictions about the coastline’s future devel-opment to be as precise as possible. However, the specifi c impacts of climate change – caused by rising sea level, mo-difi ed currents or an increase of surges – are still very uncer-tain. Another challenge is posed by water quality alterations in a warmer climate with modifi ed river discharge patterns.

In order to more accurately assess the dynamics of future environmental conditions, RADOST will use combinations of existing models to illustrate changes in more detail than before. RADOST activities in the fi eld of natural science will include investigations into hydrodynamics, sediment trans-port, water quality and ecosystems. In addition, the socio-economic consequences of climate change and adaptation options in the region will be assessed. Research and strategy development activities focus on the issues of:1. Coastal protection2. Tourism and beach management3. Water management and agriculture4. Ports and maritime economy5. Nature conservation and use6. Renewable energies.

Implementation projects with local partners will illustrate the economic opportunities of innovative responses to cli-mate change. The envisaged practical applications include, amongst others: combining coastal protection constructions

Regional Adaptation Strategies for the German

Baltic Sea Coast (RADOST)

with diving tourism activities or geothermal energy genera-tion; concepts for the aquaculture industry; design optimisa-tion of ships for the use on routes through the Baltic Sea; and new marketing strategies for beach tourism.

Main Partners:

• Ecologic Institute, Berlin – Coordination• Company for Environment & Coast, Kiel• CRM Coastal Research & Management, Kiel• EUCC – The Coastal Union Germany, Rostock-Warnemünde• GICON – Großmann Ingenieur Consult GmbH, Rostock• H.S.W. Bureau for applied and environmental geology GmbH, Rostock• Institute of Applied Ecology (IfAÖ), Neu Broderstorf• Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Centre, Geesthacht• Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute (vTI) – Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries, Braunschweig• Institute for Ecological Economy Research (IÖW), Berlin • Schleswig-Holstein State Offi ce of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Areas, (LLUR), Flintbek• Schleswig-Holstein Agency for Coastal Defence, National Park and Marine Conservation (LKN), Husum• Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Berlin• Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research (IOW), Warnemünde• State Agency of Environment and Nature (StAUN), Rostock• Department of Geography, University of Kiel• Department of Coastal Engineering, Institute for Environmental Engineering, University of Rostock (URCE)

Contact:

Grit Martinez, Senior Project Manager, Ecologic Institute, BerlinPfalzburger Strasse 43-44, 10717 Berlin, Germanyphone: +49-30-86880-0fax: +49-30-86880-100e-mail: [email protected]

Further information

on RADOST is available on the project’s website (in German): www.klimzug-radost.de

Please read more detailed RADOST information in the upcoming volume of LOICZ Inprint 2010/3.

18

The backbone of LOICZ: Affi liated Activities

One aim of LOICZ is to provide a framework to encourage the fullest participation of multi-national, regional, and national research activities in its global research. These activities shall contribute to achieving the goals, aims and objectives outlined in the LOICZ Science Plan and Im-plementation Strategy (SPIS). A way we accomplish this is to actively en-gage with the international research community concerned with natural and social sciences on Global Environmental Change in the coastal zone. LOICZ is a forum to assimilate, synthesize and integrate the outputs of the research community. It provides an opportunity to communicate, dis-cuss and disseminate these outputs making them available to the global audience of scientifi c peers, the general public, and decision-makers in policy and practice. Information on Affi liated Activities is held in a central database that is accessible online through the LOICZ website. It makes basic information and regular updates available to the wider global com-munity as well as to LOICZ for its assessment and synthesis task and its reporting requirements.

We encourage coastal scientists to seek affi liation of their research project/s, PhD thesis or capacity-building activities to LOICZ and be-come a member of the global science community and network of resear-chers and practitioners. Since 1993, more than 400 individual activities from all over the world have already been involved in this LOICZ research portfolio.

Early stage research

We particularly encourage early stage researchers from PhD student to Post-Doc level to seek affi liation of their projects. LOICZ ack-nowledges that much of the work contributing to coastal Earth System science is being carried out by young scientists. Therefore LOICZ wants to support these efforts by enhancing their visibility and introduction to scientifi c peers in the global research community. Affi liated early sta-ge research will thus contribute to the global research portfolio and its products and information will also feed into the global LOICZ synthesis likewise with the larger affi liated projects.

Affi liation will give early stage scientists comprehensive information about the variety of scientifi c activities in their fi eld and allow them to foster their network with senior scientists and the global research com-munity. They may also have easier access to participation in workshops, conferences and meetings organized by LOICZ that relate to their own work. By promoting their individual research on a global platform, early stage researchers will be given the opportunity to contribute to LOICZ aims and objectives directly.

Application for affi liation of scientifi c work at PhD and Post Doc level needs the same set of principle information and delivery of appropriate docu-ments (e. g. thesis outline instead of a project proposal if applicable). In addition and to guarantee a good conduct in quality control LOICZ kindly asks for a co-signature and professional affi liation details of the supervising scientist. The review conducted by the LOICZ scientifi c peers will apply the same standards as for senior projects. Detailed information on the affi lia-tion procedure is available on the LOICZ website in the ‚Projects‘ sectionhttp://www.loicz.org/projects/index.html.en

Synthesis of Affi liated Activities

LOICZ is preparing for an interim scientifi c synthesis in 2010, and as part of the synthesis the Affi liated Activities will be evaluated in the context of the LOICZ scientifi c framework. The synthesis is an opportunity to share your research fi ndings with the global LOICZ community and value your contribution to coastal and global change research. We therefore encou-rage you to regularly check and update the project information on the

LOICZ database http://kopc01.gkss.de:7777/loiczdb/faces/app/Wel-come.jspx, including relevant publications and reports on your research fi nd ings. In order to edit your project information on-line, you need to log in with your user name and password. If you require any assistance, please contact the IPO.

Call for affi liation of research activities

LOICZ seeks to expand its network of scientists by endorsing research activities concerned with any of its priority topics on a global, regional or national level.

Within these topics LOICZ strives to develop:• methodologies or models that allow data assimilation, processing and synthesis, including up and/or down scaling;• scenarios of change and/or response to change in socio-ecological systems;• scientifi c context for the evaluation of existing policies and

structures;• globally applicable tools for scientifi c synthesis, decision support

and structure development; and• dissemination interfaces to provide information and assist sustainablecoastal development on appropriate scales.

To achieve this, LOICZ is calling for proposals to bring high quality re-search activities into the LOICZ cluster of Affi liated Activities. As well as fundamental science projects, LOICZ also looks for projects that have a multidisciplinary perspective, especially combining natural and social sciences. Projects can focus on global, regional or local scales and address coastal sciences and/or coastal management questions. Projects that collaborate with other Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) elements, especially with other Core Projects of IHDP and IGBP, are sought in particular. Also projects that synthesize and analyze re-search outcomes already available or involve dissemination and outreach that will lead to better public knowledge are most welcome. LOICZ particularly encourages affi liation of early stage research at PhD and Post-doc level. Details about projects already affi liated to LOICZ can be found in the LOICZ Project database accessible through the LOICZ website.

Researchers whose work fi ts into the LOICZ portfolio are encour agedto submit proposals to the LOICZ IPO as soon as possible. The requiredform is accessible after registration to the LOICZ project databaseand additional information can be obtained from the LOICZ website or via contacting the LOICZ IPO.

Although LOICZ cannot offer funding to Affi liated Activities, its endorsement provides the following benefi ts:

1. support in the state of proposal for funding;2. promotion of the project and associated activities, its contributing

team, outputs and outcomes through the LOICZ website and/or newsletter;

3. contribution to workshops, conferences and meetings organized by LOICZ and hence establish linkages to other projects operating in similar fi elds and/or addressing similar issues;

4. access to a wide circle of information related to funding and the science community that is available through the LOICZ database; and

5. Principle Investigators of Affi liated Activities are offered a Corresponding Membership to the LOICZ Scientifi c Steering Com-

mittee (does not apply to PhD level). This appointment is subject to annual review.

6. Affi liated Activities will generally feed into the global LOICZ synthe-sis (Interim Synthesis planned for 2010).

INPRINT 2010/2 19

Priority Topics

Priority Topic 2

Nutrient-Flux Evaluation by the

LOICZ Biogeochemical Model in

Mediterranean Lagoons:

The Case of Cabras Lagoon

(Central-Western Sardinia)

B.M. Padedda; A. Lugliè; G. Ceccherelli; F. Trebini

& N. Sechi

Department of Botanical, Ecological and Geological Sciences, University of Sassari, Sassari, Italy

In this study, the LOICZ budgeting pro-cedure was used to evaluate the main nutrient pathways and ecosystem func-tions within Cabras Lagoon (Central-Western Sardinia, Italy) in 2004.The re-sults of a simple one-box and one-layer model showed that nutrient accumu-lation prevailed over mobilisation for both dissolved inorganic phosphorus (annual mean of 675.69 mol d−1) and

dissolved inorganic nitrogen (mean of 6120.05 mol d−1). Net ecosystem metabolism (NEM) was always positive, implying that production predominated over respiration throughout the year (mean of 3.3 mmolCm−2d−1). Estimates obtained from the model also highlighted the fact that nitrogen fi xa-tion prevailed over denitrifi cation (mean of 0.14 mmolm−2d−1). Finally, extended water-residence times (mean of 192 days) were observed in the lagoon, particularly in the summer. An approach based on the improvement of water exchange with the sea would provide a relatively simple and short-term in-terim strategy, until more comprehensive actions aimed at reducing the anthropogenic nutrient loads in the watershed can be implemented.

Keywords: coastal lagoon; nutrient balance; net ecosystem metabolism; eutrophication; Mediterranean lagoon; Cabras LagoonISSN 0275-7540 print/ISSN 1029-0370 online© 2010 Taylor & FrancisDOI: 10.1080/02757541003627670http://www.informaworld.com

Read more: Online publication date: 8 April, 2010URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02757541003627670

Nutrient Budgets for

Large Chinese Estuaries

Chinese rivers deliver about 5–10 % of global freshwater in-put and 15–20 % of the global continental sediment to the world ocean. We report the riverine fl uxes and concentrations of major nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus, and silica) in the rivers of the contiguous landmass of China and Korea in the northeast Asia.

The rivers are generally enriched with dissolved inorganic ni-trogen (DIN) and depleted in dissolved inorganic phosphate (PO4

3−) with very high DIN: PO4 3− concentration ratios. DIN,

phosphorus, and silica levels and loads in rivers are mainly affected by agriculture activities and urbanization, i.e. anthro-pogenic activities as well as particulate adsorption, and rock types, climate and physical denudation intensity, respectively. Nutrient transports by rivers in the summer are 3–4 times higher than those in the winter with the exception of NH4

+. The fl ux of NH4

+ is rather constant throughout the year due to the anthropogenic sources such as the sewer discharge.

As nutrient composition has changed in the rivers, ecosys-tems in estuaries and coastal sea have also changed in recent decades. Among the changes, a shift of limiting nutrients

Two recently published papers report LOICZ budgets for coastal systems

S.M. Liu

Key Laboratory of Mari-ne Chemistry Theory and Technology; Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China

G.-H. Hong

Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute, Ansan P.O. Box 29, Kyonggi 425-600, Republic of Korea

J. Zhang

State Key Laboratory of Estu-arine and Coastal Research, East China; Normal Universi-ty, Shanghai 200062, China

X.W. Ye

Key Laboratory of Marine Chemistry Theory and Tech-nologyMinistry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao266100, China now at: Qingdao Entry-Exit Inspection and Quaranti-ne Bureau of the People’s Republic of China, Qingdao, 266001, China

X.L. Jiang

Key Laboratory of Marine Chemistry Theory and Tech-nologyMinistry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao266100, China

20

from phosphorus to nitrogen for phytoplankton production with urbanization is noticeable and in some areas silicon be-comes the limiting nutrient for diatom productivity.

A simple steady-state mass balance box model was employ-ed to assess nutrient budgets in the estuaries. The major Chinese estuaries export <15 % of nitrogen, <6 % of phos-phorus required for phytoplankton production and 4 % of silica required for diatom growth in the Chinese Seas (Bohai, Yellow Sea, East China Sea, South China Sea). This suggests that land-derived nutrients are largely confi ned to the immediate estuaries, and that ecosystems in the coastal sea beyond the estuaries are mainly supported by other nutrient sources such as regeneration, open ocean input and atmospheric deposition.

Figure. 1: Map of the east China and South Korea, showing the loca-tion of large rivers and adjacent shelf regions from north to south in the Chinese Seas dealt with in this study.

small Figures 2: Studied estuaries with bars showing boundaries of the budgeted systems, including: Yalujiang Estuary (a), Daliaohe Estuary (b), Huanghe Estuary (c), Changjiang Estuary (d), Minjiang Estuary (e), Jiulongjiang Estuary (f), and Zhujiang Estuary (g).

Biogeosciences

An Interactive Open Access Journal of the European Geosciences Unionhttp://www.biogeosciences.net/6/2245/2009/bg-6-2245-2009.html

INPRINT 2010/2 21

LOICZ vice-chair S. Olsen represented LOICZ at the 5th Global Conference onOceans, Coasts and Is-lands held at UNESCO in Paris, 3-7 May, 2010. The three themes of the conference were ensu-ring survival, preserving life and improving gover-nance. S. Olsen focused on the governance the-me. This included chai-ring a session entitled “ICZM: Time to Upscale!”. The keynote of this session was de-livered by R. Bille who detailed the limitations of the dominant “project approach” to ICZM and argued for greater emphasis upon the normative aspects of the practice as expressed by a formal legal mandate – typically a national law – for the sustained implementation of an ICZM programme. A panel of respondents and a wide ranging discussion among all partici-pants conclude that while an ICZM law is critical to a sustai-ned programme there are other enabling conditions that are equally important. As identifi ed in the Orders of Outcomes framework and detailed in LOICZ R&S Report No. 34 (http://www.loicz.org/products/publication/reports/index.html.en), the other essential enabling conditions include:

• Commitment to the ultimate goal of sustainable forms of development

• Constituencies that understand and actively support the objectives and practices of the programme

• The institutional capacity to make such practices operati-onal.

The urgency of greater appreciation of the need to assemble the full combination of enabling conditions was recognised and discussed at a number of subsequent sessions. They are critical if the transition to the sustained and effective imple-mentation of an ICZM programme is targeted. It was noted that the political will needed to establish national ICM pro-grammes that is so often lamented as absent or insuffi cient is generated by constituencies among ICM stakeholders. And this again underscores the importance of assembling the four enabling conditions. The theme of making a successful tran-sition to the implementation of ICM programmes and other expressions of the ecosystem approach was emphasised by C. Thia Eng (former director of PEMSEA) and panellists at the concluding plenary session on governance on May 7.

Another recurring theme, emphasised by B. Cicin-Sain, the conference co-chair, is the urgent need to develop and apply common methods for documenting the progress of gover-nance initiatives through the stages of planning and imple-mentation. LOICZ has proposed methodologies that respond to this need and feature the documentation of a “governance baseline”. This is than followed by the selection of variables that trace the assembly of the enabling conditions, i.e. the changes in behaviour that signal the implementation of a plan of action and that ultimately culminate in the achievement of specifi ed environmental and societal goals.

Concern, at time confusion, was voiced by the continuing lack of clarity on the defi nition of ICM, ecosystem-based ma-nagement (EBM) and the multitude of variants of approaches that variously address the inter-relationships between coasts and large marine ecosystems (LMEs), coasts and water ba-sins (ICARM), coasts and oceans (ICOM) and coastal and marine spatial planning (CMSP). Several participants agreed that if EBM is defi ned as encompassing both the environment and people. It is also characterized by taking a long term per-spective, concern for the cumulative impacts and an empha-sis on making the necessary changes in human behaviour. These changes are required to sustain the fl ows of ecosystem goods and services that humanity requires, then these many variants (ICM, ICOM, ICARM) can all be seen as expressions of this integrating ecosystem approach. The proliferation of such acronyms is confusing to the public and to political fi -gures and should be avoided. This does not imply that the issues or areas of focus are the same everywhere. Nor do these many integrating approaches negate the continuing im-portance of sectoral management.

Finally those contributing to the governance theme un-derscored the need to codify the good practices that are emerging from the practice of the ecosystem approach. Such good practices should be linked explicitly to a more careful examination of experience. They may thus provide evidence for strategies and practices that encourage making the bridge between research/planning/policymaking and the implementation of a plan of action. One strategy for codifying good practice is to defi ne the capabilities and standards that lie at the heart of certifi cation programmes.

Priority Topic 3

Report: Fifth Global Conference on Oceans, Coasts and Islands

Stephan Olsen (Photo: B. Goldberg)

22

SCOR/LOICZ Work Group 132

The major hypothesis that this Working Group is testing is that increasing frequency and geographic distribution of HABs is at least in part due to nutrient pollution. Nutrient pollution from land comes via rivers from the runoff and leaching of ni-trogen and phosphorus from fertilizers and manure and from sewage water. One source where we know very little about on the global scale is aquaculture. Both shellfi sh and fi nfi sh mariculture is currently increasing rapidly in many parts of the world, particularly in Southern and Eastern Asia.

Estimating nutrient export to the coastal zone has been a challenge, but enormous advances have been made with res-pect to global models over the past several years. The work-group uses the annual global river export data for sediments and different forms of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and si-lica from the IOC Global Nutrient Export from WaterSheds (Global NEWS) (Seitzinger et al. 2010). The Global NEWS data cover the period 1970-2000, and the period 2000-2050 is based on the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) (Al-camo et al. 2006). The work group developed monthly esti-mates of river nutrient export based on Global NEWS models and river discharge.

A key question to be answered by the work group relates to the typology of the coastal environment. To analyze the im-pact of differences in the type of coastal system on the pro-liferation of HABs, the work group uses information on the retention within different coastal types (Figure 1; Laruelle et al. 2009). Coastal typology affects nutrient retention, which, in turn, affects nutrients potentially available for HABs.To advance our understanding of changing nutrient sources, estimates of nutrients from aquaculture were developed. The river nutrient export data were complemented with world-wide estimates for nutrient release from shellfi sh and fi nfi sh aquaculture for 1970, 2000 and the MEA scenarios. A sim-ple model was developed by the work group on the basis of available literature data on the various types of feed used in the different aquaculture systems, feed conversion ratios and assimilation effi ciencies. Results indicate that shellfi sh aqua-culture may release about 2 million tonnes of nitrogen per year by transforming phytoplankton to dissolved and parti-culate forms (Figure 2). Finfi sh mariculture may contribute a

similar quantity. Although on the global scale this is a minor source to coastal marine ecosystems compared to river ex-port, on regional and local scales it may be important. The spatial allocations of the aquaculture nutrient release were refi ned, for examp-le with maps published by FAO, information from Chile and China (Figure 3).

To link these estimates of nutrient export, release and reten-tion with HABs, several efforts are underway. Firstly, regional time series of HABs and nutrient loading have been summa-rized from different parts of the world, i.e. South America, Gulf of Mexico, U.S.A., Gulf of Oman, and Hong Kong. The purpose is to study relationships between nutrient loading and the occurrence of HABs on the basis of detailed spatial and temporal information on the environmental conditions. This is an ongoing activity. Secondly, the work group has compiled global maps of occurrences of Prorocentrum mini-mum, Noctiluca, Pseudo-nitzschia and Karenia. The collection of such data from literature, reports and other sources to complement these maps will continue through summer 2010.The third effort involves application of the POLCOM-ERSEM Global coastal ocean model, calibrated with Global NEWS nutrient data. Simulations with the POLCOM-ERSEM Global coastal ocean model have been made for NW European shelf & Baltic, Benguela upwelling, Humboldt current, Indonesia and South China seas, Yellow sea and sea of Japan, California current, Bay of Bengal, Mauritanian upwelling. These simu-lations are based on Global NEWS data and include 20 year hindcast, 20 year pre-industrial (˜1860), 20 year future cli-mate simulations (˜2080-2100). These simulations are cur-rently being evaluated. Furthermore multiple driver scenarios were analyzed as a part of the FP7 MEECE project, with a set of future climate scenarios combining both climate im-pacts (IPSL A1B), nutrient loads (derived from the AR4 SRES scenarios). These will be run for the North Sea. Proposed further work includes re-runs for key regions (e. g. China, Bay of Bengal) with nutrient loads including aquaculture.

The fi nal meeting of the Working Group is planned in Greece in October 2010.

Cross Cutting Activity

Patricia Glibert

University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science

Lex Bouwman

Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyWorking Group Co-Chairs

Land-based Nutrient Pollution and the Relationship to Harmful Algal Blooms

in Coastal Marine Systems

INPRINT 2010/2 23

Figure 1: Global coastal types used in SCOR work group 132 (Laruelle et al. 2009). The coastal types and models for nutrient retention within these types are a product of the GINUX project of Utrecht University, the Netherlands.

Figure 2: Shellfi sh production (top) and nitrogen release from shell-fi sh aquacultural systems (bottom) for the period 1970 to 2006. Nitrogen release is based on a simple model; a similar model was developed for fi nfi sh.

Figure 3: Release of nitrogen from maricultural production and river export in the coastal provinces of China, in Chile and Mexico for 2000 and for 2030 and 2050 according to the Global Orchestration scenario.

References

J. Alcamo, D. Van Vuuren and W. Cramer. (2006): Changes in ecosystem services and their drivers across the scenarios. In: S.R. Carpenter, P.L. Pingali, E.M. Bennett and M.B. Zurek (Edi-tors), Ecosystems and human well-being: scenarios. Island Press, Washington, D.C., pp. 279-354.

G.G. Laruelle, H.H. Dürr, C.P. Slomp, C.M. Van Kempen and M. Meybeck, (2009): Nitrogen and phosphorus retention in nearshore coastal environments: a global-scale modeling approach. Manuscript in preparation.

S.P. Seitzinger, E. Mayorga, A.F. Bouwman, C. Kroeze, A.H.W. Beusen, G. Billen, G.V. Drecht, E. Dumont, B.M. Fekete, J. Garnier and J.A. Harrison. (2010): Global river nutrient export: A scenario analysis of past and future trends. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 23, doi:10.1029/2009GB003587.

24

Jozef Pacyna, past LOICZ SSC chair,

received “Bene Merito” award

Jozef Pacyna of NILU’s Center of Ecology and Economics, past member and chair of the LOICZ SSC (2006-2008), has been awarded the prestig ious „Bene Merito“ medal by the government of Poland for his work in international coope-ration in science. The nomi-nation was announced during the visit of Mini ster Sikorski of Poland on the invitation of Minister Jonas Gahr Støre of Norway. The ceremony was held at the Embassy of Poland on 31 May, 2010. LOICZ con-gratulates J. Pacyna on this occasion.

LOICZ Regional Nodes

SSC News

(Photo: O. Pacyna)

Valerie Cummins

Valerie Cummins has taken up a new position as Director of the Maritime and Energy Research Campus and Commercial Cluster in Cork.

Valerie Cummins - Director

Maritime & Energy ResearchCampus & Commercial ClusterNational Maritime College of IrelandRingaskiddyCo. CorkIreland

LOICZ Regional Node Europe-MENA (Middle East and North Africa) and PALOP (Países Africanos de Língua Ofi cial Por-tuguesa) countries.

The International Centre for Coastal Ecohydrology, approved as a centre under the auspices of UNESCO, settled in Faro, Portugal, will act as LOICZ Regional Node for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and PALOP (Portuguese African Speak-ing) countries. Both in MENA and PALOP countries pressures on coastal zones are increasing and changes in the hydro-logic cycle associated with climate changes, according to IPCC scenarios, will add more stress to these already water stressed zones. Thus, the activities of the ICCE-LOICZ Node will aim to contribute to the creation of a critical scientifi c mass in dealing with the coastal zone issues, and to dissemi-nate scientifi c and management approaches in the regions under the node intervention, in close collaboration with local institutions.

The ICCE-LOICZ Node links the application of the Ecohydro-logy approach, developed under the umbrella of the Inter-national Hydrologic Programme (IHP) of UNESCO, with the globally applied LOICZ methodologies on scientifi c evaluation

of coastal areas nutrients balances and integrated modelling. The education and capacity building components are crucial in the achieving of those objectives. The LOICZ Node will be associated with the new ERASMUS MUNDUS Master Course in Ecohydrology, a Master course receiving students from all world regions. This course thus constitutes a major hub for dissemination of the integrated ICCE-LOICZ approaches for the sustainability of coastal zones worldwide.

Education, Cooperation and

Communication departments

ICCE - Solar do Capitão Mor, Horta das Figuras, EN 1258005-518 Faro, Portugalphone: (+351) 289 888 140 fax: (+351) 289 888 149e-mail: [email protected]

More information available at: Newsletter ICCE N1/2010 and http://www.icce-unesco.org

New LOICZ Regional Node Europe (MENA and PALOP) in Faro

INPRINT 2010/2 25

Rodney Duffy delivers a presentation on coastal zone science in Australia to a group of middle school children at the Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research open day. (Photo X. Li)

LOICZ Regional Node East Asia

Australian Youth Ambassador for Development (AYAD) located at the Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research (YIC), LOICZ Regional Node East Asia

R. Duffy is an early career researcher, having recently completed his doctoral thesis, where he utilised stable isotope analysis to determine the dietary impor-tance of prey items to fi sh and crustace-ans currently under aquaculture produc-tion in Australia. Prior to this research, Rodney was involved in a wide variety of projects that ranged from investigations into the relationship between seagrass patch size, shape and fi sh assemblages to large scale analyses of the relationship between commercial fi sh catches and biotic and abiotic variables associated with river catchments.

It is his varied interest in all aspects of land-ocean interactions that has lead him to take up a position as an Australi-an Youth Ambassador for Development (AYAD), located at the Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research (YIC), the LOICZ Regional Node East Asia. His main du-ties in this role are capacity building and knowledge exchange. To achieve this he hopes to aide in creating new collabora-tions, as well as in strengthening exis-ting linkages, between leading Australian coastal zone research institutes and the YIC. Whilst through his involvement with a number of existing research projects at the YIC, he will share his knowledge from Australia and learn from leading Chinese researchers. Rodney will also be assisting with the organisation of the LOICZ Open Science Conference 2011.

Following completion of his role as an AYAD he hopes to undertake post-docto-ral research into biotic factors infl uenced by land-ocean interactions.

http://www.loicz.org/about_us/nodes/node3/index.html.en

Measurement of Yabby growth, Cherax destructor, during tank based growth trials. (Photos: M. Sieradzan)

26

LOICZ Open Science Conference 2011

Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ) is ple-ased to announce the LOICZ 2011 Open Science Conference (LOICZ OSC 2011), to be held on 12-15 September, 2011, in Yantai, China. The conference is organised in close coope-ration with the Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences

The LOICZ OSC will be arranged around the overarching topic on “Coastal vulnerability and sustainability to support adapta-tion to global change”. Bearing in mind the grand challenges presented in ICSU’s visioning process, i.e. forecasting, obser-vations, thresholds, responses, innovation (http://www.icsu-visioning.org), which provide a broad frame for future Earth system sciences LOICZ invites contributions to the following scientifi c themes and encourages the study of vulnerability, dynamics and resilience of coupled social – ecological land-ocean systems at local, regional and/or larger scales:• Social-Ecological Systems and Scales • Vulnerability and Resilience • Adaptive Capacity and Mechanisms • Spatial/Temporal Scales • Earth Observation and Monitoring • Assessing, Modelling and Scenario Building • Coastal Economics, Ecosystem Goods and Services • Science-Practice-Policy Interface and Knowledge Transfer • Coastal Governance • River-Mouth Systems • Coastal Urbanisation

Conference website:http://www.loicz-osc2011.org

Storm Surges Congress 2010 – Hamurg

I. Böttcher, project/congress manager, left LOICZ and the GKSS Research Centre at the end of April 2010. Ms. Böttcher accepted a job opportunity in Hannover, where her family and friends live.

Our new colleague Marcus Lange replaced Ms. Böttcher on 1 May, 2010. In 2007, Lan-ge graduated from Kiel University. His ma-jor fi eld of study was on coastal research and management. During his study period, he worked for the Ecology Center and the Leibniz Institute for Education and Natural Sciences in Kiel. Furthermore, he was em-ployed at the trilateral Common Wadden

Sea Secretariat in Wilhelmshaven and the Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research in Warnemünde.

After his studies he changed to the GKSS Research Centre in Geesthacht and worked as Project Manager for the nati-onal research project Zukunft Kueste – Coastal Futures fun-ded by the Federal Ministry and affi liated to LOICZ. Focus of the project was on the assessment of the overall impact of large scale offshore wind farm developments in the North Sea. The project terminated in early 2010, with a concluding conference involving researchers and multiple stakeholders. Marcus Lange was in charge for the organisation of this event and presented key fi ndings of the past years.

Subsequently, he joined the LOICZ IPO, taking on the responsibility for the upcoming Storm Surges Congress, 13-17 September, 2010, in Hamburg (http://meetings.coper-nicus.org/ssc2010/) and the growing portfolio of world wide LOICZ-affi liated projects.

M. Lange’s scientifi c interests are in the fi eld of marine and coastal areas, marine ecosystems and its exposure to human impacts. He worked on conceptualising patterns of marine and coastal system change by employing various approa-ches, such as the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment or the DPSIR Approach. One key focus of his work was to explore and apply interdisciplinary indicators in the structuring of sci-entifi c analysis. He is a member of the EUCC Germany and the Ecosystem Services Partnership.

Storm Surges Congress 2010Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges13–17 September, 2010, University of Hamburg, Germany

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28

Thesis Defence in Faro, Portugal

On 12 April, 2010, I. Se-kovski defended in Faro his thesis for the LOICZ-affi liated Erasmus Mun-dus joint Master’s Pro-

gramme in Water and Coastal Management. The student, who carried out his thesis at the LOICZ IPO, and his super-visors W. Dennison and A. Newton communicated by email and had regular skype meetings for the duration of the thesis project. At the University of Algarve, the defence style was to have the student present a 20 minute thesis overview to a ‘thesis jury’, with a jury president and a ‘main opponent’ who leads the examination of the student following the presentation. The other jury members, including the thesis advisor(s) then ask questions. Following the presentation and question session, the student (and audience) troop out of the room while the jury deliberates. Sekovski’s thesis was titled “Coastal Megacities: Application of the driver-pressure-state-impact-response framework to address environmental, social and economic issues”. W. Dennison and A. Newton served as co-advisors and jury members. J. Weichselgartner, LOICZ Se-nior Science Coordinator, was the main opponent and rest of the jury in cluded E. Roth, a Danish economist, and T. Boski, a marine geologist at the University of Algarve who was the jury president.

The thesis focused on issues associated with the current and future coastal megacities of the world. Coastal mega-cities were defi ned as having 10+ million people, within 100 km from the coast and within 100 m of elevation from sea level. By this defi nition, only 2 coastal megacities existed in 1975 (New York and Tokyo), but by 2007 there were 14 and popu lation projections indicate more coastal megacities in the coming years, particularly in Asia. By comparing the en-vironmental issues in current megacities, the author conclu-ded that effi cient management responses for environmental prob lems in coastal megacities are a combination of a) gover-nance proposed measures, b) technological improvements, and c) best management practices.

The major obstacles in managing coastal megacities are the result of 1) unclear physical and administrative boundaries, 2) poor cooperation between different managing structures and 3) insuffi cient participation of local communities.

The major advantages of coastal megacities in overcoming environmental problems included the following: i) megacity fi nancial capacity, ii) slower increase in population observed in megacities, and iii) increasing environmental awareness. Sekovski passed his thesis and received a high distinction.

http://ian.umces.edu/blog/2010/04/19/erasmus-mundus-thesis-defense-in-faro-portugal/

Internship at the LOICZ IPO,

GKSS Research Centre

I am Lutz Johannssen, a bachelor student of environmental science at the Leuphana University in Lüneburg. Between April and June 2010, I was doing an internship at the LOICZ IPO, GKSS Research Centre. I had the impression that I taped in a quiet busy period of time that brought interes-ting work for an intern. I started to collect and prepare dif-ferent documents for an upcoming mid-term evaluation. This duty gave me a quiet good overview of the dimension of the LOICZ project and some good impressions and inspirations. The internship provided a welcomed change to my theoretical studies at the university and gave me a lot of general expe-rience and provided insights into the operational and organi-sational structures of an international project offi ce. Further-more, I gained understanding of the range of scientifi c fi eld work including the wide scope of LOICZ affi liated research projects and, equally important, many ideas for my upcoming future: my bachelor thesis or even the master programme.

Intern Lutz Johannssen in front of the Institute for Coastal Research hosting the LOICZ IPO (Photo: E.-B. Goldberg)

INPRINT 2010/2 29

N. Rabalais on Impact of Gulf Oil Spill

on Fish, Shrimp, and Sea Turtles

The Gulf of Mexico oil spill of April 2010 will impact sea turtles, fi sh, marshes, and other wildlife for many years to come. That’s ac-cording to biological oceanographer N. Ra-balais of the Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium and former LOICZ SSC vice-chair. EarthSky spo-ke with her a few days after an explosion on an oil rig sent millions of gallons of crude oil gushing into the Gulf.

Nancy Rabalais: Offshore now there are spawning fi sh. Their eggs and larvae usually live in the surface waters. So if they’re exposed, that w ould be a setback to those populations.

Onshore, the oil could coat the salt marshes of Louisiana’s coast, vital to fi sh and fi sherman.

Nancy Rabalais: The nursery areas are the marshes, and many of the fi sh that live in the offshore Gulf of Mexico de-pend on the marshes rearing of young and protection of young while they grow up. Most of the fi sh species, and the brown shrimp and the white shrimp, blue crab, they all depend on the estuaries as habitat nursery grounds. So any oiling, loss of that vegetation right now would be a setback for any larval recruitment into those areas, which could affect, eventually, the long-term population growth of whichever organism has been exposed.

Ridley sea turtles and others will also be impacted by the Gulf oil spill, said Rabalais.

Nancy Rabalais: This time of the year is a big migration pe-riod for sea turtles and also nesting on beaches. Some of the prime nesting areas are in South Texas and in Mexico for the Ridleys. Along the Mississippi-Alabama, the offshore islands, they’ll get loggerheads this time of the year, maybe some green turtles. So if those beaches are oiled, that will affect the turtles coming in to lay their eggs. I’m not sure what that would do to the turtle itself. The eggs, hopefully, will be placed in an area that’s clean, because they don’t do it right at the shoreline.

Despite a setback, Rabalais is confi dent marine life will even-tually recover from the spill.

Nancy Rabalais: One thing, I think, we need to be careful about is not to say it’s an Armageddon, but not ignore it. Somewhere in between, we have to be reasonable about what we can do and then do our best to stop it, and then do our best to help restore and recuperate those habitats.

Read more and listen to the whole interview:

http://www.loicz.org/mediacentre/podcast/index.html.en

Final Report: DELTAS - Coastal Vulnera-

bility and Management is printed and

available online

This report edited by Ramachand-ran Ramesh et al. features the dis-cussions and fi ndings of a work-shop held in connection with the opening of the new LOICZ Regio-nal Node South Asia in December 2009. The Institute for Ocean Ma-nagement based at the Anna Uni-versity Chennai in India hosted a group of national and international scientists discussing the latest knowledge about deltas, dy-namics, fl ux processes, global and anthropogenic drivers of change and future prospects. In parallel a group of specialists under the leadership of Eric Wolanski held a side meeting addressing the adaptation of LOICZ budgeting tools to turbid systems.

http://www.loicz.org/about_us/nodes/node1/index.html.enhttp://www.loiczsouthasia.org/

Integrating and Applying Science:

A Handbook for Effective Coastal

Ecosystem Assessment

is now available on-line (both hardcopy and elec tron ically). The website provides an internal page preview function:

http://www.loicz.org/news/lite-rature/index.html.enhttp://ian.umces.edu/press/store/For further LOICZ recommended literature please have also look at the LOICZ website: http://www.loicz.org/news/lite

Publications

For print version please ask LOICZ Regional Node South Asia.

30

Diverse rainforest with more than 700 plant and fern species, some 30 % of which are endemic to American Samoa, cover the steep slopes of these stunning volcanic islands. Occa-sionally, you will fi nd taro fi elds or signs of fascinating traditi-onal practices, such as the ‘star-mounds’ which are 6-10 foot (ca. 1.8-3 m) tall mounds of rocks that were historically used by Matai (village chiefs) in competitions catching the Pacifi c Pigeon or lupe.

The fl ight from Hawaii to American Samoa arrives at night, so the warm moist air is immediately apparent – but tantalising, as it is necessary to wait till the morning to begin to appre-ciate the people and places that make these islands unique. The 70,000 people who live on the fi ve steep volcanic islands making up American Samoa enjoy mean daily temperatures that range from 81-83 °F (ca. 27–28.5 °C) all year with 125 – 250 inches of rainfall per year – and are still in the process of rebuilding from the Tsunami that came ashore as a 10 (ca. 3 m) foot wave in some villages in September 2009. Tutuila is the island where 96 % of the population live in a narrow coastal strip, nestled between steep sloping, high-ly endemic rainforest and diverse fringing coral reefs. Pago Pago harbour is the largest town with waters that are once again clear due to effl uent from the tuna canning factories and treated waste water now being pumped off the shelf into deep water. This scenic vista of the harbour is from the top of steep mountains close by. The surrounding fringing reefs are highly diverse with more than 250 species of corals and more than 900 species of fi sh, living in crystal clear waters that range from 82 up to 86 °F (ca. 28–30 °C). In some of the more sandy areas, the sea-grass Halophila (paddle weed) can be found, and both green sea turtles as well as hawksbill turtles can be occa sionally found amongst the reef. Although large fi sh are now fairly rare, it is some-times possible to see a black tip-ped reef shark, cruising amongst the coral heads and reef.

Pago Pago Harbor and township (Photo: T. Carruthers)

Coastal Snapshot

American Samoa:

A Wealth of Natural and Cultural Resources

Historic ‚starmound‘ (now overgrown) (Photo: T. Carruthers)

INPRINT 2010/2 31

Diverse fringing coral reef (Photo: T. Carruthers)

Tim Carruthers with staff at the National Park of American Samoa (Photo: J. Hawkey)

The people of American Sa-moa are some of the friendliest people in the world, with a deep respect for each other and their culture, based around family and village life. They have a very apparent and won-derful sense of place, which is understandable considering the spectacular natural beauty of these magnifi cent South Pacifi c islands.

T. Carruthers and J. Hawkey (both from the Integration andApplication Network) recently spent a week developing sciencecommunications products withthe National Park of American Samoa.

About the author:T. Carruthers is the Programme Manager for the Integration and Application Network. Carruthers, member of the LOICZ SSC, has a PhD in seagrass ecology from the University of Western Australia.

http://ian.umces.edu/people/Tim_Carruthers/

Further articles of ‘Coastal Snapshots’ can be found here:

http://www.loicz.org/Snapshot/index.html.en

If you also want to become a “LOICZ Snapshot Reporter” pleasesend your “Snapshot article” to: [email protected]

32

JOB POSTING:

Seeking IGAC Executive Offi cer

This position is with the University of Washington‘s Joint In-stitute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), a cooperative research institute between UW and NOAA. The incumbent will work at the JISAO facility on the University of Washington campus (Wallace Hall) in Seattle.

The open position is Executive Offi cer (E.O.) of the Interna-tional Global Atmospheric Chemistry Project (IGAC; http://www.igac.noaa.gov). IGAC is a core project of the Internati-onal Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP; http://www.igbp.net). It facilitates multi-disciplinary and multi-national activities aimed at addressing integrative questions which can’t be addressed by individual scientists/institutes and it helps build scientifi c capacity across the community. This is done by providing endorsement of and guidance to re-search ac tivities, initiating new activities (e. g. measurement campaigns, model or instrument comparisons); holding sci-entifi c workshops; producing synthesis/assessment reports; hosting a biennial conference; publishing a newsletter and web page; and interacting with partner projects/program-mes. Current focal areas include connecting mega-city emis-sions to regional-to-global scale impacts; controls on upper troposphere/lower stratosphere chemistry; air/ice chemi-cal interactions; more detailed studies of long-range trans-port and chemical transformation; and chemistry/climate feedbacks. The Executive Offi cer works with the internation-al IGAC Scientifi c Steering Committee (SSC) to determine the organization’s priorities, then works with the SSC and other members of the international community to facilitate their execution. The E.O. can participate in IGAC-organised research/activities as dictated by their interest and skills, providing an opportunity to expand their breadth of scientifi c knowledge and exposure within the international community. The E.O. is assisted half-time by a Programmatic Assistant.

http://www.washington.edu/admin/hr/jobs/index.html

Climate Change Policy

in the European Union:

Confronting the Dilemmas of

Mitigation and Adaptation?

A new book exploring the past, present and future of Euro-pean climate policy, has now been published by Cambridge University Press.

More information is available at: http://www.cambridge.org/uk/catalogue/catalogue.asp?isbn=9780521196123

Dates announced for „Planet under

Pressure: New Knowledge towards

Solutions“

This major global-change open science conference will be held from 16-19 April 2012 in London. The conference, which will focus on solutions, is co-sponsored by the International Council for Science‘s (ICSU) global-environmental-change research programmes and their Earth System Science Part-nership. It is expected to bring together natural and social sci-entists, economists, national and international policymakers, industry, NGOs and many other communities.

E. Ostrom (winner of the 2009 Nobel Prize in economics), A. Cropper (Deputy Executive Director of UNEP) and M. Stafford Smith (Science Director of the Climate Adaptation Flagship of CSIRO) will lead the Scientifi c Organising Committee for the conference. The full committee will be announced in August 2010, and details will be made available on the IGBP website (http://www.igbp.net/) in due course.

Have you seen?

If interested, contact: Sarah Doherty [email protected]

INPRINT 2010/2 33

Conference:

Deltas in Times of Climate Change,

Rotterdam,

29 September – 1 October, 2010

Billions of people live in deltas. They will face rising sea levels, heavy rainfall or, on the contrary, more drought and higher tempe-ratures. How can they deal with these changes? Does climate change offer opportunities to make the delta more attractive? Should they act now to prevent problems in the near future? How can governments, societal groups and business people work together to make their deltas climate proof?

These questions and many others will be at the centre of an international conference ‘Deltas in Times of Climate Change’, to be held from 29 September to 1 October in Rotterdam, Netherlands. We aim to connect science and practice in the fi eld of climate change and adaptation, and to reinforce delta networks, such as the Delta Alliance, Connecting Delta Cities and the World Estuary Alliance.

The conference offers a platform for policy makers, senior political offi cials, business people and practitioners from all over the world to share examples of climate adaptation and exchange experiences. Scientists will present research re-sults and debates will be organised about fi nancing climate adaptation, new construction approaches and about the role of cities in adapting to climate change.

This conference sets forth the focus on coastal hazards, risk and vulnerability addressed in the preceding Storm Surge Congress 2010, 13-17 September in Hamburg, Germany, by zooming in to one of the most vulnerable and populated coas-tal domains, the global deltas. Both congresses thus comple-ment each other and collaborate in the steering committees.

Are you interested to know more about the conference? Please visit the website www.climatedeltaconference.org.

34

Calendar

2010Storm Surges Congress 2010 Risk and Management of current and future Storm Surges13–17 September, 2010, University of Hamburg, Germanyhttp://meetings.copernicus.org/ssc2010/home.html

8. International Training Workshop: Integrated Coastal Management in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea14–30 September, 2010, Dalyan, Turkeyhttp://www.medcoast.org.tr/

Littoral 2010: Adapting to global change at the coast: Leadership, Innova-tion, and Investment21–23 September, 2010, Londonhttp://www.coastnet.org.uk/Littoral2010

Deltas in Times of Climate Change29 September – 1 October, 2010, Rotterdamwww.climatedeltaconference.org

CSDMS Meeting 2010: Modeling for Environmental Change14–17 October, 2010, San Antonio, Texashttp://csdms.colorado.edu/wiki/CSDMS_2010_meeting

International Conference: Urbanization and Global Environmental Change15–17 October, 2010, Tempe, Arizonawww.ugec2010.org

Maritime Rapid Environmental Assessment Confe-rence: Quantifying, Predicting, Exploiting Uncertainties in Marine Environments18–22 October, 2010, Lerici, Italyhttp://geos2.nurc.nato.int/mrea10conf/

International Symposium: Urban Futures and Human and Ecosystem Wellbeing26–30 October, 2010, Shanghai, Chinahttp://www.urbansymposium.net

3. International Conference: Management of Coastal Recreational Resources27–30 October, 2010, Grosseto, Italyhttp://www.um.edu.mt/iei/mcrr3-2010

Conference: Earth Observation for Land-Atmosphere Interaction Science3–5 November, Frascati, Italyhttp://cms.dynaweb3.nl/users/esa/?pid=982&page=Homepage

IGCP 588/INQUA Conference: Preparing for Coastal Change30 November–4 December, 2010, Hong Kong, Chinahttp://www.hku.hk/science/igcp588/

5. International Nitrogen Conference: Reactive Nitrogen Management for Sustainable Devel opment3–7 December, 2010, New Delhi, Indiawww.n2010.org and www.initrogen.org

Symposium: The Wadden Sea Region: Towards a Trilateral Research Agenda8–10 December, 2010, Leeuwarden, Netherlandswww.waddenacademie.knaw.nl

20117. International Symposium: Coastal Engineer ing and Science of Coastal Sediment Processes2–6 May, 2011, Miami, USAhttp://coastalsediments.cas.usf.edu

International Symposium: Integrated Coastal Zone Management3–7 July, 2011, Arendal, Norwayhttp://www.imr.no/iczm

LOICZ OSC 2011: Coastal Systems, Global Change and Sustainability12–15 September, 2011, Yantai, Chinahttp://www.loicz-osc2011.org

2012Open Science Conference: Planet under Pres sure: New Knowledge towards Solutions16–19 April, 2012, London

IPY Conference: From Knowledge to Action22–27 April, 2012, Montreal, Canada

INPRINT 2010/2 35

Get involved

If you wish to contribute to LOICZ INPRINT please send an e-mail to: [email protected] or visit the LOICZ website www.loicz.org for article requirements.If you have a project you would like to affi liate to LOICZ please go to www.loicz.org and click on research for detailed information.

Contact:

GKSS Research Centre, LOICZ IPOInstitute for Coastal ResearchMax-Planck-Str. 1 21502 Geesthacht, Germanyphone: +494152 87-2009 . fax: +494152 87-2040e-mail: [email protected] . URL: www.loicz.org

© Copyright 2010, Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone, Core project of IGBP and IHDP

land-ocean interactions in the coastal zone - hzgand ultimately to coastal seas. as a result, carbon...

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