land management for carbon and climate mitigation under ... · slide 2 - outline . 4. we have...
TRANSCRIPT
Land management for carbon and climate mitigation under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 using the
Community Earth System Model Peter Lawrence
Terrestrial Science Section Climate and Global Dynamics Division
Collaborators Brian O’Neill and Ben Sanderson
Slide 1 - Title
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
CMIP5 Land Cover Change Attribution
1. CMIP5 Prescribed Land Cover Change and Wood Harvest as a major climate forcing for both historical and future RCP simulations
2. At the winter meeting we presented attribution of the Climate and
Carbon Cycle Impacts from three member ensembles of concentration driven fully coupled transient CESM 1.0 simulations for the Historical, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 time periods with and without Land Cover Change with all other forcings following the CMIP5 protocol.
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
CMIP5 Land Cover Change Attribution – Exp. Design
Simulations Land Cover Wood Harvest Other Forcings
1a Historical Control x3 Transient Transient Full Transient
1b Historical No Land Cover Change x3
Constant 1850 No Wood Harvest Full Transient
2a RCP 4.5 Control x3 Transient Transient Full Transient
2b RCP 4.5 No Land Cover Change x3
Constant 2005 1995 – 2005 average wood harvest
Full Transient
3a RCP 8.5 Control x3 Transient Transient Full Transient
3b RCP 8.5 No Land Cover Change x3
Constant 2005 1995 – 2005 average wood harvest
Full Transient
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
CMIP5 Land Cover Change – Total Ecosystem Carbon
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
CMIP5 Land Cover Change – Total Ecosystem Carbon
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
CMIP5 Land Cover Change – Total Ecosystem Carbon
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
CMIP5 Land Cover Change – Total Ecosystem Carbon
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
CMIP5 Land Cover Change – Total Ecosystem Carbon
Transient LCC No LCC Net LCC
Historical -61.2 PgC +68.4 PgC -129.6 PgC
RCP 4.5 +62.8 PgC +68.6 PgC -5.8 PgC
RCP 8.5 -49.0 PgC +119.8 PgC -168.8 PgC
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
CMIP5 Land Cover Change – Land Surface Temperature
1. Given that the CMIP5 Land Cover Change had big impacts on the Carbon Cycle and smaller impacts on surface climate we extended these experiments to assess a “maximum plausible” afforestation and crop expansion
2. Crop expansion starting in 2015 increases cropping area in
climatically suitable areas with proximity to existing crops (+ 22.5 million km^2)
3. Afforestation starting in 2015 replaces non tree vegetation with trees in climatically suitable areas while maintaining current day crops (+ 22.5 million km^2)
4. Both simulations maintain current day wood harvest areas
5. Simulate ensembles of 3x RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 with the new Crop
Expansion and Afforestation Land Cover Change compared to No Land Cover Change under same RCP forcing
Extending Land Cover Change
Slide 2 - Outline
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
CMIP5 Land Cover Change Attribution – Exp. Design
Simulations Land Cover Wood Harvest Other Forcings
1a RCP 4.5 No Land Cover Change x3
Constant 2005 1995 – 2005 average wood harvest
Full Transient
1b RCP 4.5 Crop Expansion x3
Transient Crop Increase
1995 – 2005 average wood harvest
Full Transient
1c RCP 4.5 Afforest Transient Afforestation
1995 – 2005 average wood harvest
Full Transient
2a RCP 8.5 No Land Cover Change x3
Constant 2005 1995 – 2005 average wood harvest
Full Transient
2b RCP 8.5 Crop Expansion x3
Transient Crop Increase
1995 – 2005 average wood harvest
Full Transient
2c RCP 8.5 Afforest Transient Afforestation
1995 – 2005 average wood harvest
Full Transient
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Crop Expansion and Afforestation Land Cover Change
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Crop Expansion and Afforestation Land Cover Change
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Crop Expansion and Afforestation Land Cover Change
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Crop Expansion and Afforestation Land Cover Change
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Land Cover Change – Total Ecosystem Carbon
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Land Cover Change – Total Ecosystem Carbon
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Land Cover Change – Total Ecosystem Carbon
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Land Cover Change – Total Ecosystem Carbon
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Land Cover Change – Land Use and Land Sink
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Land Cover Change – Other Carbon Pools
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Land Cover Change – Other Carbon Pools
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Land Cover Change – Biogeophysics Temperature
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Land Cover Change – Biogeophysics Temperature
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Land Cover Change – Biogeophysics Temperature
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Land Cover Change – Biogeophysics Albedo Latent
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Land Cover Change – Biogeophysics Albedo
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Land Cover Change – Biogeophysics Latent Heat Flux
1. Maximum reasonable Afforestation and Crop Expansion experiments in CLM 4 – CAM 4 had strong robust impacts on both the Carbon Cycle and surface Climate
2. The Carbon Cycle response under RCP 8.5 was around 10% larger than the same experiment in RCP 4.5
Land Cover Change Impacts - Conclusions.
Slide 2 - Outline
3. Temperature responses were larger under RCP 4.5 than RCP 8.5 with both were driven primarily by Albedo changes with Latent Heat change complex and impacted by Precipitation feedbacks
Land Cover Change Impacts - Conclusions.
Slide 2 - Outline
4. We have further work to do on this study as we ran other simulations were that included Afforestation with intense Wood Harvest which can be used for either for carbon capture or woody biofuel. This provides a new management dimension to these studies
5. We also have CLM Crop simulations that we will assess for the crop biofuel production capacity of the crop expansion experiments to provide guidance for the carbon trade off in terms of natural ecosystem carbon losses
Land Cover Change Impacts – Continuing work.
Slide 2 - Outline
Slide 2 - Outline
Relevance to SDWG Fostering dialogue
– Carbon and climate Land Cover Change impacts in LUMIP/ScenarioMIP CMIP6 scenarios
Needs for CESM development – Assessment of CLM4.5/5 Land Cover Change – Creation of new LUMIP land cover change parameters
Relevant CESM simulations – CLM4.5/5 offline and coupled simulations
New CESM linkage code Land Cover Change and Wood Harvest Parameter Generation for LUMIP/CMIP6 with CLM-Crop and new management functionality
1. Direct Biogeophysical Impacts: - Albedo – Radiation (Snow Interactions) - Surface Hydrology (Irrigation) - Surface Roughness 2. Direct Biogeochemical Impacts: - Vegetation and Soil Carbon Fluxes from Conversion Natural -> Human systems - Harvesting from Forestry and Agriculture 3. Indirect Impacts: - Increased Photosynthesis through higher CO2, Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium - Atmospheric Responses in Temperature, Cloud, Precipitation and Larger Scale Circulation - Fire, Methane, Dust, Volatile Organics, Aerosols Lawrence et al., [2011], Lawrence and Chase, [2010], Feddema, et al., [2005], Findell, et al., [2007], IPCC, [2007], Bonan, [2008], and Canadell, et al., [2007]
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Need for Land Cover Change
Agriculture Afforestation
Growth Growth
Urban
Forestry