PowerPoint Presentation

John Philpott Inclusion LMI seminar30 October 2013www.thejobseconomist.org

Labour market statistics and the economy: prospects and puzzles

The Jobs EconomistUse (and abuse) of statisticsYou can prove anything with statistics!

You cant prove anything (or at least not everything) with statistics

Support/Defend prior theory or view

Basis of explanatory narrative

My approach to explanatory narrativeA labour market commentator, not an academic or statistician

Treat established official statistics with due respect

Apply Occams Razor

Be open to change - admit when wrong, explain why

Make clear that prediction/forecasting is an analytical tool (ceteris paribus!), not astrology

Jobs Economists post-2008 surprises

UK unemployment (rate 16+, seasonally adjusted, ONS/LFS)Puzzling labour market developmentsProductivity puzzle (jobs without growth)?

Pay puzzle(break from normal pattern)?

Persistence puzzle (stability in youth unemployment)?

Productivity puzzle

Pay slowdown and squeeze

Break in redundancy trend also pre-dates recession

Unprecedented real pay squeeze

Insider power in further decline (WERS)

More effective outsiders 1 (% LTU share)

More effective outsiders 2 (fall in structural inactivity rate)Youth unemployment (rate 16-24, seasonally adjusted, ONS/LFS)Quarterly LM flow rates (UK seasonally adjusted)Trend in vacancies (000s,UK, seasonally adjustedThinking about future prospectsJohn Philpott Inclusion LMI seminar 30 October 2013www.thejobseconomist.orgThank You! The Jobs Economist