labour market situation of young people in central and eastern europe sandrine cazes ilo-sro,...
TRANSCRIPT
Labour market situation of young
people in Central and Eastern Europe
Sandrine Cazes
ILO-SRO, Budapest
Outline of the presentation
Overview of labour Market trends in Central and Eastern Europe over the 1990s
Young people in the labour market => which LM outcomes?
Labour market trends in CEE over the 1990s
Decline in employment Shrinking labour force participation
rates Persistent high unemployment: despite
economic growth, employment did dot recover
Labour market trends in CEE over the 1990
Growth of informal sector Insecurity of employment and income
has sharply increased in the transition period.
Labour market trends in CEE over the 1990
Characteristics of unemployment
– High long-term unemployment– Large regional disparities in
unemployment– Most hard hit groups: youth, low-skilled,
people with disabilities, certain ethnic minorities
Labour market trends for youth
Falling labour market participation– Decline in labour force participation rates
of young people deeper than for any other age group of the population.
– Reasons: increased participation in education and higher discouragement of young workers
Youth unemployment What is the size of problem?
Different indicators can be used to measure youth unemployment, each representing different aspect of the problem (see Table)
Youth unemployment
CZ ES HU LV LT PL SK SL
Youth u rate (%) 16.6 22.2 10.8 20.7 41.0 39.1 16.2
Youth /Adult
u ratio
2.4 2.0 2.2 1.8 2.7 2.5 3.7
Share of youth/ total u
25.7 21.3 23.9 18.1 17.7 28.1 31.5 30.9
Youth unemployment High unemployment Important disparities in youth u rates within the
region- 10 % in Hungary; 40 % in Poland and Slovakia
Youth u rates high relative to adult rates - 2.5 times higher
Most vulnerable young women with small children, unskilled youth and socially disadvantaged youth (Roma)
Labour market trends for youth
High incidence of flexible forms of employment
– Part-time employment– Time-limited labour contracts– Non-labour contracts– Self-employment– Multiple job holding– Informal employment
Labour market trends for youth
High labour turnover and short job tenures characteristic for young workers- 2 years on average for a sample of 8 CEE transition countries compared with 8.5 years for the whole working population
Duration of unemployment tends to be shorter
Trends in education of youth
Education levels of young age groups are increasing
Shift from secondary vocational education to general education
More young people in universities, shift away from technical disciplines to economics, business management, social studies, etc.
Too narrow specializations have been overcome but faced with the creation of new skill mismatches
In some transition countries large dropouts – threat for the future
Unemployment & its effect on youth
Risk of poverty (income) Alteration/loss of Human Capital (LTU) Delay to entry into labour market Risk of migration (brain drain) Informalization Human trafficking, Increases of risky behaviour
Conclusions Young people on average more educated, more
flexible and mobile, able to learn new skills and adapt to new conditions of work, lower paid (therefore cheaper), for employers worth the longer-term investment in their training.
All this increases their employment chances in the longer run.
Conclusions However, young people are less experienced at
work and therefore less productive, often with non-matching skills for the vacant job and then more costly in terms of training needs, less reliable, often changing job, with family responsibilities lowering their flexibility, time at work and sometimes productivity.
All this decreases their employment chances in the short- to medium run.
Conclusions Many of the latter real or presumed disadvantages
can and need to be addressed by appropriate
education, labour market, social and family policies.
Determinants of outcomes-some tracks
General LM conditions– Aggregate demand– Skill mismatch– Role of Labour market institutions &
regulations
Determinants (cont.) More specific to young people
– Demographics (youth cohort) – Education– Wages / Labour Cost – Reluctance to hire first job seekers– Barriers to access self-employment– Role of Labour market regulation
Youth unemployment
AL* BiH BU HR MA MO RO SM
Youth u rate (%) 43.1 38.4 37.3 56.1 16.2 17.5 49.6
Youth /Adult
u ratio
2.2 3.5 2.2 2.8 3.6 ..
Share of youth/ total u
46.0**
21.3 34.4 28.1 30.1 34.9 ..