LABORATORY OF APPLIED THERMODYNAMICS

ARISTOTLE UNIVERSITY THESSALONIKISCHOOL OF ENGINEERING

DEPT. OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING

Laboratory ProfileLaboratory Profile

General information Laboratory of Applied Thermodynamics (LAT)

Structure: Part of the Mechanical Engineering Dept., Energy SectorAristotle University Thessaloniki

Housing: A total area of 600 m2 in the University campus(testing facilities 400 m2, offices 200 m2)

Personnel: ~20 engineers, 3 technicians and undergraduate students

Faculty Staff: Prof. Zissis Samaras (Director), Assoc. Prof. Grigoris Koltsakis, Emeritus Prof. Konstantinos Pattas

Turnover: ~600 k€ annually

Membership: Member of EARPA (European Automotive Research Partners Association)

Website: http://lat.eng.auth.gr

Scientific & research areas

Design and development of exhaust aftertreatment devices

Study of particle emissions from engines and aerosol technology

Engine & vehicle exhaust emissions measurement & characterization

Emission inventories and forecasts

Renewable energy sources, incl. automotive biofuels

LABORATORY OF APPLIED THERMODYNAMICS

ARISTOTLE UNIVERSITY THESSALONIKISCHOOL OF ENGINEERING

DEPT. OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING

EC4MACS - LATEC4MACS - LAT

Questions to be answered

Available tools for EC4MACS

Use for policy analysis

Extensions foreseen in the coming years, additional insights

Which linkages to other aspects (outside the own modelling domain) could be of relevance?

Critical interfaces with other models

Questions

Our role in EC4MACS

Task 6: Transport scenarios Period: Oct. 2006 – Sep. 2011

Actions 6.1: Update baseline transport projections 6.2: Alternative scenarios proposed by the

Commission/stakeholders 6.3: Evaluate options, including uncertainty characterisation

Deliverables 6.1 Interim baseline transport projection (2007) 6.2 Interim assessment of alternative transport scenarios

(2008) 6.3 Final baseline transport projection (2009) 6.4 Final policy scenarios (2010-2011)

TREMOVE Model

TREMOVE is a policy assessment model, designed to study the effects of different transport and environment policies on the emissions of the transport sector and was developed for Auto-Oil II Programme

Objective: Make available to the European Commission services a transport model that is applied for environmental and economic analysis, up

to 2020 of different policies and measures to reduce the atmospheric

emissions (incl. greenhouse gases) from all modes of transport (road, rail, aviation, maritime and

inland waterways) in the enlarged European Union

LAT is only a user and (so far), not a developer of TREMOVE

TREMOVE Developments

TREMOVE 2 - Lot 3 (KUL)

TREMOVE III Lot 1 (TML)

TREMOVE III - Lot 2 (LAT)

TREMOVE Review (MNP/IEEP/IIASA/BIO)

Car choice / taxation (IEEP)

EU Vehicles Database

Further framework for model maintenanceand improvement

TREMOVE Development - TREMOVE II – Lot 3 (KUL)

Task 3.1 - Calibration of the TREMOVE model Integrate of the most recent emission factors available at EU

level (COPERT IV – ARTEMIS) Validation of the data set of the model against the national

statistics and forecasts used for NEC • Co-operation with IIASA• Meetings with Member States, to complement and detail

the data and assumptions• Adaptation of the model to the extent that it contributes to

the validity of the model and does not hamper its internal consistency.

Revision of the baseline scenario fully consistent with the NEC Baseline + variant based on alternative national projections.

Task 3.2 - Simulation of 60 policy packages Euro 5, Maritime, CO2+Cars (on-going), etc.

End of contract: 9/11/2006

TREMOVE III – Lot 1 (TML)

Develop source code & software structure (model speed, user interface)

Follow-up of “TRENDS-2” project (COPERT IV non-road modes, IPTS) Allow easily introducing transport baseline data from alternative

sources Improve the dataset (best available level of detail and data quality) Extension of the scope of TREMOVE to EU-27, CR, TU Improve the structure of the model, so that behavioural responses are

better reproduced in all modes. Take into account the conclusions of independent model review Organise ad-hoc seminars with the most relevant experts Draft list of improvements:

Enable new modal substitutions / Endogeneous load factor and occupancy rates for all modes

Review and validation of the set of price elasticities and elasticities of substitution (EOS)

congestion/scarcity in non-road mode / Calibration of speed-flow relationships

Road vehicle 2nd hand Market Revenue recycling options / MCPF

Revised TREMOVE baseline scenario at the end of the contract (3/2007)

TREMOVE III – Lot 2 (LAT)

60 policy scenarios with TREMOVE Until June 2006: preparation use TREMOVE, definition

scenarios June/December 2006: TREMOVE runs for NEC

• Future Emission standards• Technical measures on existing vehicles (Retrofit HDV)• Non-technical measures (Scrapping / Bans)• Full implementation Eurovignette provisions

Other• Infrastructure charging (DG TREN)• Fuel taxes

TREMOVE III – Review (MNP)

Independent and scientific review of TREMOVE MNP, IEEP, IIASA, BIO Assessment

• Check to what extent the structure of each module of TREMOVE provides a scientifically credible representation of the reality.

• Define the limitations and the implied system boundaries and explain to what extent may these restrict the validity of the conclusions and policy advice

Recommendations for improvements:• Short term: to be implemented by TML before March 2007• Medium/long term: prepare further framework for model

maintenance and improvement, after March 2007

EU Vehicle Database

Low quality current data on vehicle stock Information about general aggregate categories only little consistent information on age and technology distribution very little information is available as regards disaggregated activity

data. Objectives:

Build a consistent and accurate database providing detailed information on the stock of vehicles at country or regional level, minimum each year 2000-2005

Cover the requirements of TREMOVE, TERM and COPERT. Define a methodology for the further regular update of the database.

Scope: Al least TREMOVE 3 countries (EU27+4) All modes, as well as non-road mobile machinery Focus on road transport vehicle

Consistency checks (Transport volumes, traffic counts, fuel consumption) Co-ordination (Eurostat, EEA, EMEP/CORINAIR, UNECE WP 6) Duation: January – December 2007 Consortium: LAT, EnviCon, ICCS, KTI, Oekopol, Renault

Transport and Environment Database System (TRENDS)

Project funded by the European Commission Directorate General for Transport and Energy

Partners Participating in the Project: Laboratory of Applied Thermodynamics/LAT

Denmark Technical University/DTU

ΨΑ-Consulting/Austria

INFRAS/Switzerland

TRENDS Main Modules

Road Transport - LAT/AUTh Railway - DTU Maritime and Inland Shipping - DTU Aviation - ΨΑ-Consulting Transport Activity Balance (TAB) - INFRAS Calculation of Waste and Noise produced by Road

Transport - INFRAS

Methodological Steps for Road Transport

Creation of Appropriate Data Bases System Dynamics Module

Extrapolate Main Vehicle Categories Simulate Vehicle Turnover

Produce Input Tables for COPERT Spatial Disaggregation

Urban, Rural, Highway Temporal Disaggregation

Yearly, Quarterly

Input Data used for TRENDS - Road Transport module

Statistical data for 15 EU countries from 1970 to 1997 Vehicle populations (PCs, commercial vehicles, buses

and two-wheelers) Vehicle density Saturation values Vehicle split - According to fuel and engine type Lifetime functions

Spatial and Temporal Disaggregation of Vehicle Emissions

Spatial Disaggregation Emission Results Produced by TRENDS Allocated to

EU15 Cities Highways Rural Areas

Statistical Data Provided by GISCO Production of GIS Maps

Temporal Disaggregation Seasonal Distribution of Emission results

Spatial Disaggregation of Vehicle Emissions: CO urban rural and highway emissions for Germany (1995)

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100 0 100 200 Miles

NUTS CO tn/year/km²0.1 - 0.330.33 - 0.460.46 - 0.750.75 - 1.51.5 - 163.62

Settlements CO tn/year# 631 - 7635# 7636 - 20964# 20965 - 48119# 48120 - 78821# 78822 - 198334#

Road Emissions CO tn/year/km0 - 5353 - 9797 - 150150 - 209209 - 306 N

EW

S

CO-GERMANY

COPERT

Copert is a methodology and a software tool to calculate emissions from road transport

Its development has been supported by the European Environment Agency

Input for methodology updates have been several European projects in the area of emissions. The most well known have been: The Corinair activity The MEET/Cost 319 projects The Artemis/Particulates cluster JRC/CONCAWE activities on fuel evaporation The UNECE Task Force on Emission Inventories

LAT has been the main developer over the recent years but Copert is considered a collective development of many individuals/organizations

COPERT Usage

Auto - Oil II: Copert based forecast scenarios run on behalf of ACEA to estimate emission evolution up to 2015

EMEP/CORINAIR: COPERT III methodology is the road transport and off-road machinery emission chapter in the UNECE’s Emission Inventory Guidebook

EEA Activities: National and Central Estimates for Air Emissions from Road Transport TERM : Transport and Environment Reporting Mechanism (Commission - Eurostat, DG

TrEn - EEA) TRENDS: Development of a Database system for the Calculation of Indicators of

Environmental Pressure Caused by Transport (DG TrEn study) supported by EEA

COPERTCOPERT

Auto Oil Auto Oil IIII

TREMOVTREMOVEE

ACEA

EMEP EMEP GuidebooGuideboo

kk

TERMTERM

TRENDSTRENDS

National National InventorieInventorie

ssIndividual Individual

UseUse

STEERSSTEERS(CONCAWE)(CONCAWE)

Copert III field of applications National level (Europe)

Official National Inventories: Belgium

• Flemish (C. De Bosscher, VMM, Erembodegem)• Wallon (I. Higuet, DGRNE, Namur)• All (M. Squilbin, BIM, Brussels)

Bosnia (Martin Tais, Federal Meteorological Institute) Croatia (Zeljko Juric, Ekonerg, Zagreb) Cyprus (Chrysanthos Savvides, Min. of Labour, Nicosia) Denmark (Morten Winther, RISOE, Roskilde) Estonia (Natalje Kohv, Env. Inf. Centre, Talin) France (Jean Pierre Chang, Paris) Greece (Demetra Koutendakis, Nat. Obs/tory, Athens) Ireland (Paul Duffy, EPA, Dublin) Italy (Riccardo de Lauretis, ANPA, Rome) Luxembourg (Thewes Frank, Lux. EPA, Luxembourg) Moldova (Victor Ambroci, Nat. Cent. Env Monit.) Slovenia (Alenka Fritzel) Spain (Antonio Chao, AED SA, Madrid)

Comparison of Structure TREMOVE-TRENDS

Model Demand Module

Stock Module Emission Module

TREMOVE(v2.44b)

PRIMES+ Elasticities on the basis of basecase

Foremove+ Copert 4

TRENDS(2004 Version)

Gompertz function (no interface with policy)

Foremove+ Copert 4

Comparison of the different models available

COPERT TRENDS TREMOVECurrent Version 4, v.3.0.0 Feb 2004 II, v2.44b

Geographical range Applicable to any country EU15 EU15+6

Time span 1970-2020 1970-2020 1995-2020

Vehicle categories Annex A Annex A Annex B

Transport modes Road Road, air, rail, maritime Road, air, rail, maritime

Vehicle activity No activity data Population, mileage, age, speed

Population, mileage, age, speed

Vehicle emissions Road17 pollutants

Road 11 pollutants (Based on COPERT)

Off-road8 pollutants

Road 11 pollutants (Based on COPERT)

Off-road7-10 pollutants depending

on modeCurrent use in production of TERM indicators

TERM 27 and 28 TERM 03, 27, 28, 32 and 34 TERM 33

OutlookCOPERT 4 continuously improving based on EEA

funding. New version expected Sept. 2007

Call on off-road module by JRC IPTS. Future

TRENDS development still open.

V2.5 being finalized to include EU25 coverage up

to 2030.

Further Development of TREMOVE/TRENDS/COPERT

TREMOVE: v2.5 finalized on 9/3, covering EU27+4 up to 2030, including Copert 4 emission functions

TRENDS: Call (6/2006) from JRC/IPTS focusing mainly on emission factors for non-road modes (won by TRT Milan)

COPERT: Continuous funding from EEA/ETC ACC enough to support development on the methodological and software fronts

Currently TREMOVE is supported by DG ENV, Copert by EEA and TRENDS by EUROSTAT and JRC

There is discussion to transfer all responsibility for further development to JRC (IPTS/IES)

Future development plans to be decided in the months to come

Linkages and interfaces

These have been already historically developed and will be further enhanced in this project Rains/Gains Primes CAFÉ/Auto Oil Accent/Geia …