l9 dynamics 4
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ESD.36J System & Project Management
Dynamics of Project Performance
System Dynamics and Project Management
Class Four (10/2/03)
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-Topics
Review Practice for 10/3
Staff and schedule dynamics
Managing the Dynamics & Summary
Homework 4
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Graph for Quality
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0.85
0.7
0.55
0.40 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
Quality : Class3 Step1 FractionQuality : Class2 Step2 Fraction
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+Graph for Effect of Prior Work Quality on Quality
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0.85
0.7
0.55
0.40 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
Effect of Prior Work Quality on Quality : Class3 Step1 DimensionlessEffect of Prior Work Quality on Quality : Class2 Step2 Dimensionless
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Quality1 Fraction
100 Task
0.75 Fraction75 Task
0.5 Fraction50 Task
0.25 Fraction25 Task
0 Fraction0 Task
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60Time (Month)
Average Work Quality : Class3 Step1 FractionQuality : Class3 Step1 FractionUndiscovered Rework : Class3 Step1 TaskWork Done : Class3 Step1 Task
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+ Graph for Work Done100
75
50
25
0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60Time (Month)
Work Done : Class3 Step1 TaskWork Done : Class2 Step2 Task
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With short time to discover rework,
quality is better ...Graph for Quality
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0.85
0.7
0.55
0.40 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
Quality : Class3 Step1 FractionQuality : Class3 Step1 Short TDRW Fraction
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- because undiscovered rework is lower
Graph for Undiscovered Rework20
15
10
5
00 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
Undiscovered Rework : Class3 Step1 TaskUndiscovered Rework : Class3 Step1 Short TDRW Task
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Less work needs to be done and
the project finishes soonerGraph for Cumulative Work Done
200
150
100
50
00 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
Cumulative Work Done : Class3 Step1 TasksCumulative Work Done : Class3 Step1 Short TDRW Tasks
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Lesson: Its the undiscovered rework!
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-Topics
Review Practice for 10/3
Staff and schedule dynamics
Managing the Dynamics & Summary
Homework 4
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- Staff and Schedule DynamicsSchedule pressure
Adding staffSlipping schedule
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Schedule Pressure
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- Schedule PressureHow might management respond when
a project falls behind schedule?
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- Schedule Pressure How might management respond when
a project falls behind schedule? Pressure team to work faster Work longer hours/overtime
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- Schedule Pressure How might management respond when
a project falls behind schedule? Pressure team to work faster Work longer hours/overtime
Downsides - Haste makes waste Fatigue adds to mistakes (and may reduceproductivity)
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Staff Level
Scheduled
Date
Effect ofSchedule
Table for Effectof Schedule
Pressure on PDY
Date Basedon Progress
AnticipatedSchedule
PerceivedReal
Date
Normal
InitialScheduled
Productivity
Completion
Pressure onProductivity
IndicatedCompletion
Overrun
Completion
Productivity
Estimated Cost to Complete
Completion
Average Productivity
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-Expected completion date:
When will the project finish, given current
time, estimated person-years remaining, andstaff?
Estimated person-years remaining = work to
do divided by productivity (person-months) Average Productivity = work believed to be
done divided by cumulative effort expended
(tasks/person-month)
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- Effect of Schedule Pressure ... On Productivity On Quality
p - Table for Effect of Schedule Pressur kup - Table for Effect of Schedule Pres
2 1
0 0-0.2
01 0 1
Anticipated Schedule Overrun (fraction)
The tables are the inverse of each other
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- Example Effect of Schedule Pressure on Productivity =
Sensitivity for Effect of Schedule Pressure onProductivity * Table for Effect of SchedulePressure on Productivity + (1 - Sensitivity for
Effect of Schedule Pressure on Productivity)
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-Schedule Pressure Simulations
If the effect of schedule pressure on quality is
the exact opposite of that on productivity,schedule pressure in this simple modelcauses the project to finish somewhat later and cost more (Class3 Step2 vs Step1).
However, if the quality effect is stronger thanthe productivity effect (Class3 Step2 PDY),then schedule pressure causes a significant
delay in finishing.
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+Graph for Cumulative Work Done
400
300
200
100
00 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
Time (Month)
Cumulative Work Done : Class3 Step1 TasksCumulative Work Done : Class3 Step2 TasksCumulative Work Done : Class3 Step2 PDY Tasks
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Lesson: Monitoring/creating the wrong pressures can be counterproductive.
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Staffing
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- Adding Staff Assumptions
hiring/transfer in delays equal 4 months,transfer out 1 month
24 months are required to gain fullexperience
inexperienced staff work at 50%productivity and quality of experienced staff
there is no limit on staff available
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Changing Schedule (not included in Class4.mdl)
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-Summary of Model to Date
Model has 3 effects on P & Q : Quality on quality Schedule pressure Experience
Decisions to increase or reduce staffing Decisions to change scheduledcompletion date (to be added later)
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-Topics
Review Practice for 10/3
Staff and schedule dynamics
Managing the Dynamics & Summary
Homework 4
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Now that we understand what
causes this behavior ...ProjectStaffing
Typical
Plan
... what canwe do aboutit?
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+ How does it get started?
- TimeRemaining
Skill &Experience
Staff
Morale Organisational Turnover HiringSize
ChangesOvertime
Schedule StaffingScheduled
CompletionOut-of-Sequence
Pressure Equivalent Requested
Productivity Quality Staff onTime Project
Work HoursExpendedProgressExpected to Date ExpectedWork
Completion AvailabilityWork ToBe Done Really Done Hours at
Time of Prerequisites Added CompletionWork Obsoleted
Known Undiscovered WorkWork Qualityto Date Rework ReworkRework
Discovery
Perceived
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How does it get started? +
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Dynamics are initiated by (1) an infeasible
initial plan, or (2)changes adding scope
UndiscoveredReworkRework
WorkReally DoneTo Be Done
People
Customer
Changes
and obsoleting completed work ...
ScopeGrowth
Known
WorkProgress
Rework
Productivity Quality
Discovery
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+ What makes it worse?- TimeRemaining
Skill &Experience
StaffMorale Organisational Turnover Hiring
SizeChanges
OvertimeSchedule Staffing
Scheduled
CompletionOut-of-Sequence
Pressure Equivalent Requested
Productivity Quality Staff onTime Project
Work HoursExpendedProgressExpected to Date ExpectedWork
Completion AvailabilityWork ToBe Done Really Done Hours at
Time of Prerequisites Added CompletionWork Obsoleted
Known Undiscovered WorkWork Qualityto Date Rework ReworkRework
Discovery
Perceived
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What makes it worse? +
-Corrective actions to get the
project back on track...
Di
ApparentProgress
CustomerChanges Schedule
Acceleration
Overtime
Hiring
ScopeGrowth
UndiscoveredRework
KnownRework
Work
Really Done
Work
To Be Done
Progress
Rework
scovery
People Productivity Quality
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-What makes it worse?
create vicious circles that undercut intended
ity
ApparentProgress
CustomerChanges
Acceleration
Work, WorksiteCongestion,Coordination
Problems,
Employee Skill
Fatigue,Burnout
Overtime
Hiring
ScopeGrowth
effects
UndiscoveredRework
KnownRework
WorkReally Done
WorkTo Be Done
Progress
ReworkDiscovery
People Productiv Quality
Schedule
Out-of-Sequence
Morale Problems
Average
and Quality
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Remember -+
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PRODUCTIVITY = NORMALPRODUCTIVITY * EFFECT OF STAFFEXPERIENCE * EFFECT OF QUALITY OFPRIOR WORK* ...
Dimensions: Productivity -- Tasks/Month/Person Normal Productivity -- Tasks/Month/Person Effects -- Dimensionless
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-The effects are laws of nature ...
2 2
E f f e c
t o
f S t a f f E x p e r
i e n c e
0 00 5 10 0 .5 1
Years Experience Quality of Prior Work
What determines how the projectmoves up and down the curves?
E f f e c
t o
f Q u a l i
t y o
f
P r i o r
W o r
k1 1
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Work Qualityto Date
ScheduledCompletion
Time
ExpectedCompletion
Time Availability
of Prerequisites
Progress
Pressure
Out-of-SequenceWork
Morale
ExpectedHours at
Completion
Hours
to Date
Skill &Experience
Hiring
Equivalent
Staff onProject
StaffingRequested
Turnover Organisational
Changes
Staff
Quality
Added
WorkWork
Overtime
TimeRemaining
Be Done
Management Actions !
Copyright
Perceived
Schedule
ExpendedProgress
ReworkDiscovery
Size
Productivity
Obsoleted
Work To
UndiscoveredRework
KnownRework
WorkReally Done
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-Major Themes to Date
Viewpoint on causes of dynamic
behavior, and an introduction to thetheory and tools to understand thatbehavior
Insights into the dynamics of complexprojects
One model of the causes of thosedynamics
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- Are There Alternative Models?
More P & Q effects, etc.
Variations on the basic rework cycle Multi-project and organizational models
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More Productivity and Quality
Effects:Model has 3 effects on P & Q :
Quality on quality
Schedule pressureExperience
What additional affects could be included?
Morale Organizational SizeOvertime ChangesSequence Availability of supplier
Other types of experience informationand materialsSkills match to needs...
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Other simplifications?
Task dependence/sequence is not representedexplicitly -- with enough staff, could finish theproject in a week
Only one phase of work explicitly represented Suppliers are not represented Interactions with other projects are not
represented
These are treated endogenously or exogenouslyin more comprehensive models, and will bediscussed in the remaining sessions.
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-When is the project finished?
In the current model, keep working until
all work is completed correctly. In othersituations, schedule may be morecritical and therefore the project might:
reduce scope to meet schedule ship with errors
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Variations on the Basic Rework
Cycle Abdel-Hamid software development
model Ford-Sterman product developmentmodel
(see SD Bibliography on s e rver )
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-Broader Dynamics
Multi-project and organizational
dynamics: implementation of new tools and processes competition between concurrent and futureprojects for resources
(We will discuss later in the term, but seeRepenning and Sterman websites)
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-Does the basic model apply to ...
Product development vs. one-of-a-
kind construction projects? ... Hardware vs. software?
Consumer products vs. military?
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-Topics
Review Practice for 10/3
Staff and schedule dynamics
Managing the Dynamics & Summary Homework 4
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-Brooks Law
"Adding manpower to a late software
project makes it later." Brooks,Frederick P. Jr. The Mythical Man-Month. Reading, MA, Addison Wesley,1995.
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