DISEC:Topic Area A: The Crisis in Venezuela

Introduction to the Committee

The Disarmament and International Security Committee (DISEC) is one of the six subsidiary committees of the General Assembly established by the UN Charter in 1945. It deals with issues of international security, disarmament, global challenges and threats to peace; along with any other issues under Article I, Clause 1 of the Charter1. Also known as the First Committee, DISEC meets annually for a 4-week session in October. All 193 members of the General Assembly are allowed to attend.

Although the First Committee has the power to discuss any issue of international security, it can firstly only pass nonbinding resolutions, and can only discuss issues which are not currently being discussed by the Security Council. Resolutions passed by DISEC, therefore, are not legally binding and only take on the form of recommendations. Despite this however, the First Committee, along with the General Assembly, has two distinct powers. Firstly, it can pass resolutions onto the Security Council to be discussed so they may become binding international law. Secondly, pursuant to the Uniting for Peace Resolution passed in 19502, the General Assembly may take action if the Security Council fails to pass a resolution due to a veto. In the case of an immediate threat to international security, if a majority of General Assembly members request for an

Emergency Special Session on the aforementioned topic, the Secretary-General must grant it.

The nature of the First Committee has changed considerably over time. the First Committee originally dealt with political and security matters when established in 1946. In 1993, however, the UN General Assembly restructured its six main committees and passed this role to the Fourth Committee. the First Committee has not only been the key point of discussion for disarmament issues since then but also since the establishment of the United Nations itself. The very first resolution to be passed in the UN concerning “The Establishment of a Commission to Deal with the Problems Raised by the Discovery of Atomic Energy” came from the First Committee3. The committee has also undergone a series of reforms to rationalize its agenda4, as well as focusing more on achieving consensus to pass resolutions. Despite this however, many resolutions, especially regarding new or controversial issues, split the First Committee between several different voting blocs.

All members of the First Committee have one vote each, regardless of population size or political power. DISEC at ManMUN will also follow this voting method.

Introduction to the Venezuelan Crisis

As UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Prince Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein stated in September 2016, “Venezuela has suffered a dramatic decline in enjoyment of economic and social rights, with increasingly widespread hunger and sharply deteriorating health-care.” (HRW, 2018)

Venezuela is a country situated in Northern South America, bordering Colombia and Guyana. The Caribbean Sea and the North Atlantic Ocean coincide at Venezuela’s coast. The Andes Mountains and Maracaibo Lowlands are in the northwest and Guiana Highlands in the southeast. The capital of Venezuela is Caracas located in the northwest with a population of 3 million. The country is most well-known for its vast oil reserves and large exports of petroleum. (America/, South, and Facts.)

In the past years, Venezuela has suffered the worst economic crisis of the country’s history. Venezuelans are struggling to stay alive in a country with the highest inflation in the world. In 2017, the country experienced inflation rates up to 652.67% and predictions show that the average inflation rate in

2019 will soar up to 3,474.73%. ("Venezuela - Inflation Rate 2022 | Statistic") “These inflation rates have resulted in food and medicinal prices skyrocketing. For example, ordering a dozen eggs in Venezuela it will cost

1,500 bolivares ($150.76 USD) on the black market.” (Business Insider, 2018) Citizens have been facing extreme food shortages, unemployment, violence and a lack of basic human needs such as water and medication, making it difficult for them to survive. The average involuntary weight loss has

even increased to 19 pounds a year. ("Venezuela’S Humanitarian Crisis | Severe Medical And Food Shortages, Inadequate And Repressive Government Response") According to the New York Times, doctors are seeing record numbers of child malnutrition, and so far, hundreds of children have died. (Kohut, Meredith, and Isayen Herrera)

Many Venezuelans are seeking asylum abroad to escape the economic collapse. Over the last four years, an estimated 4 million Venezuelans have migrated, often illegally, to other countries such as, Colombia, Brazil, Mexico, Panama, Chile, Guyana and the Dominican Republic. Many Venezuelans have also ventured to Aruba and Curacao by raft, risking their lives to escape. While many Venezuelans have received asylum, some countries are attempting to

make an effort to increase immigration restrictions and to deport illegal Venezuelan migrants. (Cia.Gov)

Definition of Key Terms

Inflation

Inflation around the world occurs when there is an increase in prices of goods and a decrease in the

value of money itself. In Venezuela, the people are paying a large amount of money for simple goods such as rice and sugar because of the low value of each boliv ar. Since 2008 Venezuela has introduced a new currency known as the boliv ar fuerte (strong) after inflation rates soared. In the original currency, the boliv ar, one bolivar is worth 1,000 bolivar fuerte. This has had a massive impact on the lives of Venezuelans, as the consequences of inflation led to income redistribution, as prices for food and domestic utilities such as water rose at a rapid rate. Inflation also impacted aspects of life such as incomes, as many wages were cut; the rise in the cost of borrowing and loans; and an increase in uncertainty among many businesses, both international and domestic.

Importation / Exportation

Importation and exportation are financial transactions in international trade. Importation refers to goods being bought and brought into a country

internationally, whereas exportation refers to domestic products being sold to other countries. In Venezuela, part of the problem is the high cost of importing goods from other countries. Venezuela also lacks a variety of products for exportation, as the country relies on its petroleum as the main export.

Nationalisation

Nationalisation is the transfer of an industry from private to state owned and controlled. Former

President Chavez nationalised many aspects of the country such as, the petroleum industry and the bank. By completing this process of nationalisation, Chavez could ensure that the poorer populations could receive a better standard of life.

Socialism

Socialism is a type of government which believes in social ownership and regulation of means of production, distribution and exchange within a community. In Venezuela, the United Socialist Party is made up of political and social forces that support the previous president, Hugo Chavez’s Bolivarian revolution. The current President is also following these socialist views that has engulfed Venezuela since 2007, the year of the party’s formation.

Dictatorship

Dictatorship is a form of government in which the President has complete political power over the people. Recent evidence has proved that the current government under Venezuelan president Maduro has transformed into a dictatorship. Similarly, to many other dictators, Maduro uses assassinations, torture and sexual abuse against political prisoners, and extreme censorship of the press to control the population. Furthermore, the hunger which pollutes the country is used as another tool for political control.

Caudillismo

The word Caudillismo, meaning a leader possessing political and military power, derived from 19th century in Latin America when leaders gained power through popularity. This system of government was very informal. There is no precise definition of this word when it comes to Maduro’s rule, however, many refer to caudillismo by expressing Maduro’s nature as a “strongman”. ("Caudillismo | Latin American Politics")

General Overview

The current state of economic instability in Venezuela is largely due to the decrease of oil prices. The economy relies heavily on the country’s oil reserves, which are the largest in the world. In 1999, after the election of president Hugo Chavez, Venezuela witnessed the Bolivarian Revolution which planned to

tackle poverty and redistribute the country’s oil wealth. When Chavez came to power oil was roughly at $7-9 USD a barrel, but by 2004 the oil price increased to over $100 a barrel. Chavez decided to implement social policies using the oil wealth to help the poorer population of Venezuela. He did this through bringing social change including improving healthcare, access to food, scholarships, citizenship rights, and job training. However, the mistake Chavez made was deepening the country’s dependence on oil throughout this process of delivering basic social services. During Chavez’s reelection in 2006, the government took actions to nationalise heavy state assets such as the electricity sector, the oil sector and even investing in buying the bank of

Venezuela. Under president Chavez, the government implemented multiple illogical economic policies, such as overvalued exchange rates, overregulation of the private sector and price controls. These policies destroyed the country’s ability to produce goods, including food. The agricultural gross domestic product even shrank by an average of 4.7 percent annually. (“From Riches To Rags: Venezuela's Economic Crisis | The Big Picture")

(Gearhart)

As the oil prices went up,Venezuela continuously spent all the

country’s savings and by 2012 oilaccounted for 95% of Venezuela'sexports. Soon after the oil pricespeaked, Chavez’s health declined andhe died of cancer in 2013. NicolasMaduro was the successor of Chavez,and came to power at a time whenVenezuela’s economy had crashed dueto the decrease in oil prices. Thisresulted in the government being in severe debt and no longer being able to buy the necessary food, medicine and good’s imports that it was previously purchasing. Basic needs such as, milk, rice, sugar, soap, toothpaste disappeared. Venezuela total stock of foreign debt is about $150 billion and this number continues to rise. Maduro has not been recorded taking any actions towards resolving the current problems within the country. While Maduro

and a close circle of his people benefit from not having to go shopping or pay bills, the people in the street who are experiencing the detrimental effects of the economic crisis are calling out to the government to resolve the ongoing crisis. ("Venezuela's Debt Problem: To Default Or To Pay")

(Vivanco)

Moreover, Maduro’s tactics to combat politicalopponents are extremely violent. He often places his

opponents in prison and uses lethal force againststreet protestors. In recent months, Maduro’ssecurity forces killed 46 demonstrators. Additionally,Venezuelan elections have been continuouslypostponed in order for Maduro to maintain political power. In July 2017, Maduro held a rigged election with a handpicked legislative body to replace the country’s parliament (the one place that's controlled by his political opponents). Meanwhile, city streets are full of black markets, outbreaks of violence, disease and street protests due to the lack of action the government has taken to help the starving population. ("How Venezuela's Repressive Government Controls The Nation Through Hunger")

VENEZUELA’S HUMANITARIAN EMERGENCY

In 2018, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) indicated that between

In February 2019, a spokesperson for WHO confirmed that “Venezuela had indeed experienced an increase in the number of undernourished persons,” based on a joint report by FAO, PAHO, UN Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF), and the World Food Programme (WFP).

A nationally representative survey by three prestigious universities in Venezuela concluded that 80 percent of Venezuelan households are food insecure, meaning they do not have a

reliable source of food, and that nearly two-thirds of people surveyed had lost weight (on average 11 kilograms or nearly 25 pounds) in 2017.

Caritas Venezuela, a Catholic humanitarian organization that monitors nutrition and provides nutritional aid to children in low-income communities in Caracas and several states, reported that moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) and severe acute malnutrition (SAM) among children under age 5 increased from 10 percent in February 2017 to 17 percent in March 2018—a level indicative of a crisis, based on WHO standards. Subsequent reports found that the overall rate in those states had decreased to 13.5 percent in July and 9.6 percent in September, but rates increased in the same period from 11.6 to 13.4 percent in Miranda state, and from 6 to 11.8 percent in Sucre state.

A September 2018 Caritas Venezuela survey found that 21 percent of pregnant women in low-income communities had moderate or severe acute malnutrition.

Several hospitals across the country are reporting increases in the number of children admitted with moderate or severe acute malnutrition, as well as deaths of children with acute malnutrition, according to information provided by Venezuelan health professionals to

Human Rights Watch and Johns Hopkins University.

Major Parties Involved

The United States of America

The conservative rule of Venezuela ended with Chavez’s election in 1999. Since then, American-Venezuelan tensions increased, particularly after Venezuela accused the administration of George W. Bush of providing support to the failed coup attempt against Chavez and the new socialist government in 2002. Additional ties were broken as Venezuela proved its unity with Bolivia when a US ambassador was perceived cooperating with violent anti-government groups. During Chavez’s presidency, many interference allegations were made about the USA causing this deterioration in relations. For example, the US opposed and lobbied against numerous Venezuelan fire arms and aircraft purchases.

In contrast, some restorations of American- Venezuelan relations were made during Barack Obama’s presidency through his support of the Venezuelan government and their economy. However, relations still were full of tension after the US declared Venezuela a national security threat and ordered sanctions against seven officials who the US thought had been involved in corruption or violated human rights. Once again, President Maduro belittled

the sanctions and stated that they were attempting to dissolve his government.

The USA, being Venezuela’s most important trading partner for both oil exports and general imports, plays a definitive role in the economic crisis that exists today. In 2006 economic relations were very successful and allowed both countries to profit for years. Although economic relations were kept in place, the Department of State in the US prohibited the sale of any defense mechanisms or services because of Venezuela's lack of cooperation when countering terrorism.

Since the election of President Donald Trump, relations between the leftist Venezuelan government and Washington have been very tremulous. Trump’s presidency has made several allegations about sanctions which must be enforced within Venezuela’s oil industry, including a full-scale ban on oil shipments to the USA. However, these will be highly unlikely to be imposed because of Trump’s large emphasis on the oil industry in the USA. Early in 2018, forty-four Venezuelan officials have been sanctioned, including the President himself. The new sanctions have continued by the USA directing sanctions towards individuals connected to Maduro. Donald Trump’s administration blames Maduro for the recession and hyperinflation. ("US Imposes Sanctions On Venezuelans")

People’s Republic of China

China has been known as a country which stayed on the sidelines as the economy in Venezuela collapsed. After many years of exporting Venezuelan oil through oil for loan agreements, China was able to secure energy supplies and create an anti-Washington ally in South America. In the last few years relations between the countries have worsened as Venezuela requested additional loans from China. This conflicted the Chinese government who was already waiting for the repayment of $19.3 billion from Venezuela. Although China wants to help Venezuela, their new policy restricts them from lending new funds until the loans have been paid off with interest. ("China Stays On The Sidelines As Venezuela Spirals Downward")

Brazil

The state of Brazil is facing an extreme wave of immigration from Venezuelans. According to the United Nations, around 5,000 Venezuelans leave their homeland every day placing extreme pressure on many of the surrounding countries with open borders to asylum seekers. Since the beginning of the crisis, Brazil has seen tens of thousands of Venezuelans

flee to Brazil and claims that these people are living proof of the crisis that the Venezuelan government denies. (Londono, Ernesto)

Colombia

Relatively, Colombia faces similar immigration, with more than half a million recorded Venezuelans living in Colombia last year. Many makeshift refugee camps are being set up in parks and parking lots. Hospitals have become overcrowded and flooded with Venezuelans. Colombia has been one of the most productive countries making an effort to combat the crisis. President Juan Manuel Santos has restricted border control and has contributed to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees setting up an additional to complement the Colombian government's efforts. The Colombian government is worried about the financial impact this crisis will have on Colombia.

Cuba

Over the past 15 years the Venezuelan and Cuban governments have become close allies both economically and politically. Venezuelan president Chavez’s rule was hugely inspired by Fidel Castro’s communist regime which controlled the economy, partook in currency manipulation and seized all private industries which abolished domestic

production of goods. Shortly afterwards, even quicker than it did in Cuba, this impoverished the nation. The current Cuban government relies on Venezuela’s oil supplies, while Cuba supplies Venezuela with doctors, teachers and military advisors. (Trinkunas, Ted)

Timeline of Key Events

Date

1900s

1980 - 1990s

1999

Description of Event

Venezuela is a country which is classed as an upper middle-income economy by the World Bank and very stable in a region afflicted with authoritarianism and unrest.

The country is beginning to see a shift in the economy which comes with a large debt crisis and staggering rates of unemployment and inflation.

Hugo Chavez elected as President of Venezuela, an anti-establishment figure who declared his support for the poorest populations of the country.

Timeline of events in reverse chronological order leading up to present day.

This was the years of the Bolivarian Revolution, a socialist government who wanted to create and

preserve a political ideology for the people of Venezuela. President Chavez’s policies included nationalisation of key industries, the creation of social welfare programs, the resistance to free market capitalism and the support of a communal state.

President Hugo Chavez died of cancer at the age 58

President Nicolas Maduro is elected at the time when Venezuela’s economy began to collapse. This was the beginning of the economic crisis.

President Nicolas Maduro held a rigged election.

Venezuela’s economy is worse than ever before resulting in a detrimental food shortage and lack of basic needs as well as ongoing violence and unrest within the country. This has also led to a refugee crisis as Venezuelans flee the current situation.

Previous Attempts to Resolve the Issue

The Venezuelan government mostly denies the existence of the crisis and they have not made an effort to implement effective policies to rectify the people’s suffering. So far, only limited efforts to obtain international humanitarian assistance have

been made proving grievously inadequate. Attempts to urge dialogue between the Venezuelan

government and foreign powers have been made by Colombia, the United States and Chile, amongst many others, yet these efforts were met with anger from the Venezuelan government.

In February this year, Venezuela launched a cryptocurrency, a digital currency called the Petro to help its struggling economy. This new virtual currency is theoretically backed by the precious metal and crude oil industry. The government’s aim is to provide citizens and foreign nationals a stable currency with which to trade goods and services. Some investors say this is an innovative approach to finding a solution, while others argue it will not solve food shortages and the dropping oil prices because technically, there is no ownership in the underlying precious metals or oils. To date, there does not appear to be any way to sell the petro for precious metals, oil or foreign currencies, which means ultimately it may not be a viable currency.

The United Nations recently adopted a resolution which condemns the sanctions placed on Venezuela by the United States, Canada, the European Union and their allies.

The resolution highlights the effects of sanctions on the poor within Venezuela. Instead of sanctions, the UN urges states to resolve their issues through peace

talks and dialogue between nations. This resolution can be viewed in Appendix A.

Furthermore, the United Nations Human Rights Council has drafted a resolution on the violation of human rights in Venezuela. This resolution acknowledges the excessive violence which is being used by the Venezuelan government towards its political opponents and the general population. This drafted resolution can be viewed in Appendix B.

Possible Solutions

The simple use of mediation between Venezuelan and current international relations, such as Washington and China, is a possible solution for the economic crisis. However, there are only a few countries which Venezuela would see fit to implement this mediation process. These countries would include Cuba and Brazil. By implementing peace talks with the Venezuelan government, foreign powers could provide additional potential aid to the current crisis.

Another possible economic solution would be a negotiated settlement regarding addressing the food and medical shortage, the basic needs of the citizens, in exchange for certain reforms to be made within the

country. By gaining international aid, Venezuela could potentially resolve the economic crisis while reinstalling a democracy and letting go of the nationalised oil industry.

President Maduro and his administration should take effective steps in addressing the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela. The first step he should take is

development of policies to address the crisis in the health sector and the food shortages and ensure that these policies are publicly known in Venezuela. He should also make sure that government supporters distribute food and other goods at government-set prices that do not discriminate against political opponents. Additionally, ensuring that regular factual updates on simple health indicators such as infant mortality rate and other common diseases spreading is important in attempting to solve and fix the situation. Investigation should also be taken into opportunities for international aid from humanitarian agencies and facilitate the implementation of programs to help the citizens to access medicines, medical supplies and treatment and food.

Furthermore, Maduro needs to end the use of authoritarian intimidation tactics and the punishment of critics of the current government. This would involve ordering security forces to stop the

mistreatment of detainees and from arresting people who participate in protests.

Situations like the current one in Venezuela could be avoided through diversification of the economy. In Venezuela’s case, when the oil prices increased and the country gained wealth, it should have been making investments in a variety of aspects of the economy rather than just on importation.

QARMA:

1. What is the current eco-political situation in Venezuela?

2. Who is responsibible for the situation in Venezuela?

3. What is DISEC’s mandate in relation to resolving the crisis?

4. What is the Venezuelan government’s responsibility?

5. Is a Latin American military a viable solution to the crisis?

6. What is the role of non-state actors?

7. Is international military involvement necessary to resolve the Venezuelan crisis?

8. What is the role of non-governmental organizations in addressing the crisis?

9. How can the illegal sale of drugs and arms be curtailed?

10. How can the border crisis and illegal emigration be addressed?

Appendices

Appendix A

A UN resolution condemning the sanctions placed on Venezuela:

http://undocs.org/A/HRC/37/L.34

Appendix B

A drafted UN resolution acknowledging the Venezuelan government's violation of human rights and requesting suspension of the country from the council:

https://www.unwatch.org/draft-resolution-suspend-venezuela-un-human-rights-counci l/

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TOPIC AREA B: Establishing A Nuclear Weapon Free Zone in the Middle East

Introduction

The introduction of a nuclear weapon free zone is a regional approach to strengthen global nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament norms, and also to consolidate international efforts towards peace and security. Nuclear weapon free zones aim to eradicate nuclear weapons from territories while complementing efforts to delegitimize or contain weapons in territories that lie outside the boundaries of the zone. The concept of a zone free of nuclear weapons has been crucial in the creation of disarmament and reduction of regional conflict.

A nuclear-weapon free zone was first suggested by the Polish Foreign Minister Adam Rapacki at the United Nations General Assembly, way back in October 1957, and it has since become an important concept in disarmament and maintenance of world peace.50 A nuclear weapon free zone in the middle east has always been a long-debated topic, mainly due to the fear of the emergence of a nuclear arms race in the region as a consequence of complex conflicts in the region. With Iran’s nuclear programs and Israel’s nuclear policies, the establishment of a nuclear weapon free zone is seen as vital. It is said to be a peaceful way of settling of issues in the region and providing security. Every year, there is a proposal for the creation of a nuclear weapon free zone in the middle east and is always passed with a unanimous vote51. Regardless of the many resolutions of the

establishment of such a zone in the Middle East being passed, it is yet to yield any significant results.

Definition of a nuclear weapon free zone, as per the United Nations General Assembly is in resolution 3472 B (1975):

Any zone recognized as such by the General Assembly of the United Nations, which any group of States, in the free exercises of their sovereignty, has established by virtue of a treaty or convention whereby:

a) The statute of total absence of nuclear weapons to which the zone shall be subject, including the procedure for the delimitation of the zone, is defined;

b) An international system of verification and control is established to guarantee compliance with the obligations deriving from that statute.

History

The Middle East is a geographical region that is located in the bridge connecting the continents Europe, Asia and Africa. 52 Since the second world war, this region has been riddled with conflicts, making the creation of such a zone vital. The beginning of the Arab Spring also makes the establishment of a nuclear free zone even more important, as the wave of uprisings and revolutions in

the Middle East during 2011 have undermined stability and security within and between Middle Eastern states.

Since the 1990s, when Egypt first presented its resolution to the UN General Assembly advocating for the creation of the zone, the country has been a very strong supporter of the establishment of the nuclear weapon free zone in the middle east. This resolution also opened the doors to the long talks and negotiations regarding the setting up of the zone, which continues today53. Egypt and other countries have always put pressure on the other Middle Eastern states to establish a nuclear weapon free zone, mainly to tackle the ever-growing interest of the Israeli government in developing its nuclear weapon programs and its ambiguous nuclear policies.

The UN Security Resolution 687 recognised the establishment of the “Middle Eastern Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone” (MENWFZ) as a goal. On 9th Dec 1975, the UN passed a resolution (3236), calling for a MENWFZ. In 1975 for the first time, an agenda for the establishment of such a zone was acknowledged by the United Nations. There have been many more resolutions passed since that period.

The hazards of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East has existed since Israel developed its ‘bomb in the basement’ and was widely discussed in the early

1980s after the Israeli forces destroyed the French-built nuclear reactor near Baghdad in June 19811.54

3. Current Situation and Conflicts in the Middle East

The Middle East is a conflict prone zone, and it is important, when considering to establish a Nuclear Weapon Free Zone, to understand some of the conflicts that are currently present.

a. Israeli/Iranian Tensions:

52 Kublin, H., (2017), Background: Middle East: https://www.scholastic.com/teachers/articles/ teaching-content/background-middle-east/

53 Taylor, NAJ., (2013), The Middle East Needs A To Be A Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone:

www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2013/01/2013141248927573.html

54 Wadlow, R., (2013). A Middle East Nuclear-Weapon Free Zone: http://www.federalist-debate.org/ index.php/current/item/820-a-middle-east-nuclear-weapon-free-zone

Iran and Israel were close allies from the beginning of the birth of Israel. Their alliance lasted till the 1979 revolution that saw a change of government for the state of Iran. Since then, their relationship has been

strained and they have been at war with each other indirectly. From the 1990s onwards the Iranian government funded a Palestinian Islamic Jihadi group and began training Palestinians at the barracks outside Tehran. They also engaged in a proxy war concerning Hezbollah, with Iran backing Hezbollah and their forces against Israel. In 2006, the Hezbollah guerrillas attacked Israeli patrol, while seizing two of their soldiers. Their tension reached an all-time high in 2010, with the reports of Iran’s suspected pursuit of nuclear weapon capabilities and its rhetoric55. Most recently, both the states have engaged in a proxy war in Syria

b. Arab/Israeli Tensions:

A common myth regarding the Israeli/Palestine conflict is that they are disputes that have gone on for thousands of years, having their roots in biblical texts. Instead,however, contemporary conflicts between both Israel, Palestine and its Arabneighbours began only one hundred years ago. When the Ottomans ruled theEastern Mediterranean, both Muslims, Christians and the small number of Jewsin the area lived relatively peacefully. Over time, however, Arabs began todevelop a sense of national identity as Palestinians, later referred to as “Arab Nationalism”. At the same time, as Jews faced persecution in Europe in the early

20th century, Zionism, the call for an independent Jewish state of Israel, becomes more and more popular with Jews in the area. Subsequently, after the fall of the Ottomans at the end of the First World War, Britain and France divided the Middle East, with Britain claiming modern day Israel. As tensions between Arab Nationalists and Zionists begin to grow, Britain passes the territory to the UN at the end of the Second World War. The newly formed United Nations in 1948 divides the territory on ethnic/ religious lines, with Israel providing an independent Jewish state for the Zionists, and Palestine as a free state for Arab Nationalists. However, many Arab neighbours view the UN ruling as imperialistic given that the number of Arabs in the area far outweighs the number of Jews. Arab Nations invade in 1948 to unite the territory under Palestinian rule57. They are unsuccessful, however, and Israel expands its territory significantly, overstepping the UN ruling. The expansion of Israeli territory, therefore, is why Arab states have bad relations with Israel. At the same time, Israel is surrounded by potential enemies and will take necessary steps to protect itself against foreign invaders.

The Israeli nuclear program, therefore, is an insurance policy against a possible united Arab invasion. Given that Israel is surrounded by enemies who have invaded the state since its independence, Israel is unlikely to give up nuclear weapons which

ensure the security of the country. Therefore, Israel has always called for peace agreements to be a pre-requisite to the establishment of a nuclear free zone and not the other way around58.

c. Iranian/ Arab Relations

Iran and Saudi Arabia have no diplomatic relations with each other. They have never officially declared war on each other but have always engaged in proxy wars. Their war is known as a cold war and is said to have had devastating impacts on countries involved. Both the countries, rich in oil, want to gain influence over the region. The main tension started after the 1979 revolution where the Shah government in Iran was overthrown. The revolution posed a threat to the monarchy in Saudi Arabia as Iran began helping other Shia groups overthrow governments in their states. Fundamentally, therefore, the opposition between both countries stems from their antithetical political systems; a monarchy and a revolutionary state.

Tensions have come to a high point over Iraq. Iraq is vital to both Saudi Arabia and Iran as it acts as a buffer state between the two countries. While Iraq invaded Iran, Saudi Arabia provided Iraq with money and logistics. The recent civil war in Iraq has seen both Saudi Arabia and Iran fund Sunni and Shia militant groups respectively. Iraq, however, is not the only proxy war in the region, with Saudi Arabia and

Iran funding opposing sides in both Yemen and Syria59.

Recently in Tehran, ISIL militants committed a terrorist attack. Following that, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement blaming Saudi Arabia for this. The Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir,60 however, issued a statement saying there was no evidence to link Saudi Arabia to the attack. Iranian official Hossein Amir-Abdollahian later claimed Saudi Arabia is the prime suspect behind the Tehran attacks61. Iranian Ayatollah Khamenei accused the USA of having created the Islamic state, and they joined Saudi Arabia in financing the this, and other such organizations62.

The potential development of nuclear weapons in Iran, therefore, is a pressing issue for the Gulf Arab states. If Iran were to develop nuclear weapons, this would mean the Middle East would plummet into an arms race between its largest powers: Israel, Iran and Saudi Arabia. In order to avert this, increased attention needs to be given to establishing a Nuclear Weapon Free Zone.

d. Insights into nuclear tensions in the Middle East

Jeffrey Helsing, the associate Vice President of USIPs academy, has stated that:

“Even with the end of the Cold War, many of the same problems have continued in the region or have actually gotten worse. Despite the turnover of a few leaders, little change has occurred politically within most Arab societies and their governmental systems. Religious fundamentalism remains strong within the region, often continuing its broad-based appeal to many disenfranchised or disaffected sectors of society. This reflects a growing divide between the haves and have-nots in society. In addition, the scarcity of natural resources such as water, arable land, and the pressures of high population growth increase the risks of conflict, both within countries and between them. Finally, on top of each of these issues, one must impose the fundamental conflict that still exists between Arab nationalism and Zionism, as well as the competing claims for the same land among Palestinians and Israelis”.

It was said that one of the ways to establish security in the region is with the creation of the Middle East Nuclear Weapon Free Zone

Mohamed El Baradei, the former Director of UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), called Iran and Israel to enter serious negotiations to create a Nuclear-Weapon Free Zone in the Middle East. He stated that:

“This is the last chance to build security in the Middle East based on trust and cooperation and not on the

possession of nuclear weapons. A peace agreement between Israel and its Arab neighbors must be reached in parallel with a security agreement in the region based on ridding the area of all weapons of mass destruction”.64

This kind of zone would help strengthen the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and would help promote nuclear disarmament and help establish peace in the Middle East. In 2010, there was a resolution formulated by the treaty parties at the 2010 NPT review conference. This resolution called for the establishment of MENWFZ and called upon the implementation of the 1995 resolution. It also singled out Israel for its lack of cooperation with the negotiations

Existing Nuclear weapon free zones in the world:

There already are some nuclear weapon free zones in the world. The following section will discuss them.

a. The 1996 African Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone Treaty

The topic of a nuclear weapon free zone in the area started when the Organization of African Unity stated its interest in the establishment of such a zone in 1964. This was to combat the French testing in the Saharan region, and the growing interest of nuclear weapons for security by the apartheid regime in South Africa. The Treaty of Pelindaba was signed in

1997 and came into effect in 2009. All states in Africa are eligible to be part of the resolution. In 1996, no African Arab state was willing to ratify the treaty until Israel gave up its nuclear weapon program. Algeria, Libya and Mauritius have ratified their treaty since then.

b. The 1967 Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America and the Caribbean68

French nuclear weapon testing in the Sahara in the 1960s and the South African apartheid regime’s interest in nuclear arms, led the African states to issue a call for an African NWFZ, which was endorsed by the UN General Assembly in 1961. Brazil was the only Latin American state, at that time, that supported the African NWFZ resolution and proposed a similar zone within its region.

The treaty of Tlatelolco is a treaty was passed and signed on the 14th of Feb 1967, and came into force on the 24th of Feb 1969. It was proposed by Costa Rica at an OAS meeting, as other proposals within the OAS regarding this had not been successful. The treaty covers the whole of the Latin American and Caribbean region, including sections of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, with all the 33 states in the region having signed and ratified the treaty.

c. The 1985 South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone Treaty69

Following the nuclear denotation in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the concern over the issue of nuclear weapons grew in the Asian Pacific region. The South Pacific Forum took up the issue in 1975 after New Zealand proposed the formation of a Nuclear Weapon Free Zone. The same year, UNGA endorsed the resolution. The Treaty of Rarotonga was opened for signature on the 6th of August, 1985, but entered into force on the 11th of December 1986.

d. The 1995 Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty

On the 27th of November 1971, the original 5 members of ASEAN signed the Declaration of an ASEAN zone of peace, freedom and neutrality in Kuala Lumpur. A major component of this was to establish a Nuclear Weapon Free Zone in the region. With about 10 years of negotiation, the Treaty of Bangkok was signed on the 15th of December 1995 and entered into force on the 28th March 1997.

e. The 2006 Treaty on a Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone in Central Asia

The initiative started with Mongolia stating its goal to become a one-state nuclear weapon free zone in 1992. Mongolia also called for the establishment of a regional Nuclear weapon free zone. The first proposal was in 1993 to the UNGA. The treaty of Semipalatinsk

was formed in 8th September 2006 and entered force in 2009. It has been signed and ratified by 5 states.

Guidelines for the creation of a Nuclear Weapon Free Zone:

In its 1999 report, the United Nations Disarmament Commission set out a few guidelines regarding the establishment of such a zone.

• Nuclear-weapon-free zones should be established on the basis of arrangements freely arrived at among the States of the region concerned.

The initiative to establish a nuclear-weapon-free zone should emanate exclusively from States within the region concerned and be pursued by all States of that region.

The nuclear-weapon States should be consulted during the negotiations of each treaty and its relevant protocol(s) establishing a nuclear-weapon-free zone in order to facilitate their signature and ratification of the relevant protocol(s) to the treaty, through which they undertake legally binding commitments to the status of the zone and not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against States of the treaty.

A nuclear-weapon-free zone should not prevent the use of nuclear science and technology for peaceful purposes. The treaties could also promote the peaceful use of nuclear energy in the zone, in

support of socio-economic, scientific and technological development.

Timeline of some important dates• 1975: The goal of setting up a middle east nuclear weapon free zone was established.

1980: the goals for supporting a NWFZ was passed in the UNGA 1989: IAEA report on the application of safeguards in the middle east 1990: Egypt proposal for the establishment of WMDFZ

1991: IAEA resolution, now passed on an annual basis without objection.

1991: UNSC resolution 687

1992: ARCS discussion. Talks places indefinitely on hold. 1995: resolution calling for a MENWFZ

2000: NPT review, re-endorsing 1995 resolution.

2010: the 5-step plan towards the establishment of the MENWFZ .

2012: The Helsinki conference was supposed to take place but was pushed back by the USA due to lack of agreement amongst the concerned states.

2015: NPT draft document on the preparations for a conference to establish such a zone in the middle east.

Bloc Positions:

a. Israel:

Israel has an ambiguous policy regarding its nuclear weapons program. Israel does not confirm or deny having nuclear weapons, but experts suggest Israel has approximately 80 nuclear missiles75. Israel’s nuclear programs ultimately remains as an insurance policy against its hostile neighbours, and although signing several treaties, such as the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, it has yet to ratify it. The threat of an Iranian nuclear weapons program worries Israel however, and Israeli policy-makers are split over a course of action against Iran76. Isolated against potential enemies, it is unlikely Israel will give up its weapons anytime soon.

b. Egypt

Although pursuing a vast ballistic and biological weapons program, Egypt has worked towards a nuclear free Middle East. Egypt is the leading proponent of the zone in the Middle East77. Israel and Egypt continually approach discussions over a nuclear free Middle East with different policy objectives. Contestation over the issue reflects a

contestation of rival powers for dominance in the region, which is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

c. Gulf States:

Sunni Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Jordan worry over the possibility of a growing arms race in the Middle East. Although diplomatic relations between Israel and the Gulf states are poor, both blocs are united in their opposition to an Iranian nuclear weapons program. The recent Iranian Nuclear Weapons deal did not reassure Arab states, as Arab leaders are not convinced that Iran’s intentions are peaceful. Given that both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are heavily militarizing, the potential consequences of an Iranian nuclear weapons program could be devastating.

Recently this year, Qatar has urged for the establishment of the zone and stressed its importance with the recent international situation. Sheik Ali bin Jassim states that “with (many) international and regional crises posing many challenges” and with the increased importance of nuclear weapons in the military for security, the creation of such a zone is critical.

d. Iran:

Despite being a signatory to the NPT, Iran’s nuclear program has led to political tensions across the

Middle East. Although the Iranian government claims its nuclear program is for energy and thereby “peaceful” purposes, neither the Gulf states or Israel seem convinced. Furthermore, internal divisions have grown over the program due to increasingly heavy sanctions from greater powers. This means that Iran takes a cautious approach, so called “nuclear hedging”. Given that Iran is surrounded by nuclear powers, it hopes to keep the possibility of a nuclear weapons program open if it needs it, whilst avoiding escalating tensions with Saudi Arabia.

e. Nuclear Power States

Although the Obama administration was keen to negotiate a nuclear deal with Iran in order to limit the Iranian nuclear weapons program, Trump has been critical of the issue80. Trump has aligned himself with the Sunni-Gulf states and Israel in opposition to the development of Iranian weapons. Although Trump is ambivalent about the deal, Washington has been keen to strictly enforce regulations on Iran as part of the deal, in order to prevent the development of Iranian weapons of mass destruction.

The UK unlike the US is not only more enthusiastic about the nuclear deal but has condemned the Israeli settlers in Palestine81. Despite this, the UK has acknowledged the destabilizing effect Iran has had in the region, and thus aligns itself with the Sunni states and Israel. These sentiments are also echoed by

France, who also supports Israeli security82. Russia too acknowledges that although it has supplied Iran with arms, the implications of nuclear conflict in the region are disastrous for maintaining Moscow’s influence. As of such, Moscow has been willing to maintain dialogue with both Iran and Israel as it acknowledges them as key players in the region83. China believes that nuclear proliferation in the Middle East is a consequence of a failed peace process between Middle Eastern states. China recommends that in order to achieve disarmament, an ongoing process of reconciliation should begin between Israel, Iran and Sunni states over territorial disputes.

QARMA:

1. What are the bloc positions of countries in the Middle East?

2. Who are the main stakeholders in establishing a weapon-free zone?

3. Is international intervention necessary to establish a nuclear weapons free zone?

4. What are the issues in establishing a weapon free zone?

5. What is DISEC’s mandate in ensuring a nuclear weapon’s free zone?

6. How can a nuclear free zone be funded?

7. How can a nuclear free zone be monitored?

8. Is the creation of a middle eastern army a viable option?

9. Are foreign military bases necessary to safeguard nuclear free zones?