kyle frazier market update [sf]_ca_tiburon_2009!07!24
TRANSCRIPT
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8/14/2019 Kyle Frazier Market Update [SF]_CA_TIBURON_2009!07!24
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Current prices for homes on the mark
Trends in priciCurrent levels of supply and dema
Value metri
market updat
Kyle Frazier'
TIBURO
2009-07-
Report for the week
Powered by Altos Research LLC Copyright 2005-2009. All Rights Reserved
Morgan Lane Real Esta
Presented by Kyle Frazier, CR
(415) 350-94
www.altosresearch.com
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8/14/2019 Kyle Frazier Market Update [SF]_CA_TIBURON_2009!07!24
2/10
Kyle Frazier, CRS | Morgan Lane Real Estate | NorthBayRE.com | 415-350-9440
The median single family home
price in TIBURON this week is
$2,695,000. The 83 homes havebeen on the market for an
average of 177 days.
THIS WEEK
Most Expensive Listing
Least Expensive Listing
Median List Price
Average List Price
Real-Time Market Profile Trend
Total Inventory
$ 2,695,000
$ 3,785,165
$ 24,900,000
$ 810,000
83
177Average Days on Market
Asking Price per Square Foot $ 819
4Absorbed This Week*
Percent of Properties with Price Decrease 42 %
Percent Relisted (reset DOM) 5 %
Percent Flip (price increased) 0 %
City Overview TIBURON
0.25 - 0.50 acre
Altos Research Value Statistics
Market Action Index
Median Number of Bedrooms
Median Number of Bathrooms
Median House Size (sq ft)
Median Lot Size
Median Age
3,209
4.0
3.5
39
13Cold! Buyer's
Altos Research calculates the Market Action Index which measures available supplyrelative to the current level of demand. Index value above 30 indicates conditions favorthe seller. See the section below for full details.
Inventory has been lightening
lately and the Market Action Indexhas been trending up. Though days
on-market is increasing, these are
mildly positive indications for the
market.
To get a tightly targeted
understanding of homes in themarket, we break each locale into
quartiles. Each quartile is 25% of th
homes listed.
QUARTILES
Characteristics per Quartile
Last Month's Trend Last Quarter's
Trend Key
No Clear Monthly/Quarterly
Bed BathMed.Sqft.
Med.Age Inven. New
Ab-sorbedMed. Lot SizeMedian PriceQuart
Avg.DoM
*Metric "Absorbed this Week" covers properties sold and those taken off the market for other reasons.Since sales sometimes take months to close, it is impossible to discern in real-time exactly which propertiessold.
Most expensive 25% of homes0.50 - 1.0 acre5,456 5.0 5.8 11 20 0 1$ 7,225,0001 221
Upper-middle 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre3,658 5.0 3.5 42 21 1 0$ 3,198,0002 127
Lower-middle 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre2,866 4.0 3.0 38 21 1 1$ 1,950,0003 227
Least expensive 25% of homes1,985 3.0 2.0 55 21 0 26,501 - 8,000
sq ft$ 1,260,0004 136
We'll refer to the quartiles in the
trend graphs below.
Kyle Frazier's Market Update for TIBURON
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8/14/2019 Kyle Frazier Market Update [SF]_CA_TIBURON_2009!07!24
3/10
Kyle Frazier, CRS | Morgan Lane Real Estate | NorthBayRE.com | 415-350-9440
PRICE
Prices continue their climb again
this week. Were a long way from
the markets price high-point so
watch the Market Action Index as
an indicator of how long this trend
will last.
QUARTILE PRICES
Price at the upper end of the
market are showing signs of
strength. While this strength hasn
percolated through to Quartiles 3
and 4 yet, expect the low end of the
market to follow up.
Often, we find insights by watching
pricing trends within the quartile
segments.
Kyle Frazier's Market Update for TIBURON
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8/14/2019 Kyle Frazier Market Update [SF]_CA_TIBURON_2009!07!24
4/10
Kyle Frazier, CRS | Morgan Lane Real Estate | NorthBayRE.com | 415-350-9440
In a market where prices are rising
fairly consistently, price per square
foot is essentially flat. This often
implies that new homes coming on
the market are pricier, and also
larger than older homes. As a resu
the value one can buy stays the
same.
PRICE AND VALUE
INVENTORY
Inventory has been falling in recen
weeks. Note that declining
inventory alone does not signal a
strengthening market. Look to the
Market Action Index and Days on
Market trends to gauge whether
buyer interest is changing with the
available supply.
Kyle Frazier's Market Update for TIBURON
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8/14/2019 Kyle Frazier Market Update [SF]_CA_TIBURON_2009!07!24
5/10
Kyle Frazier, CRS | Morgan Lane Real Estate | NorthBayRE.com | 415-350-9440
The TIBURON market is currently
quite strongly in the Buyer's
Market zone (below 30). The 90-day
Market Action Index stands at 13.
With several months of inventoryavailable at the current sales rate,
buyers should find ample choice.
Home sales have been exceeding
new inventory for several weeks.
While still a Buyers market, prices
seem to have responded by moving
upward. If the demand trends
continue, expect prices to keep
marching upward, especially once
we see a Sellers Market.
The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates the balance between supply and demand
using a statistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory.
An MAI value greater than 30 typically indicates a Seller's Market (a.k.a. "HotMarket") because demand is high enough to quickly gobble up available supply. Ahot market will typically cause prices to rise. MAI values below 30 indicate a"Buyer's Market" (a.k.a. "Cold Market") where the inventory of already-listed homesis sufficient to last several months at the current rate of sales. A cold market willtypically cause prices to fall.
MARKET ACTION INDEXResidential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and marketconditions can be characterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index forsustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyers Market zone for a long period,prices are likely in for a downward correction.
Not surprisingly given the overall
Market Action Index, all quartiles
are in the Buyers Market zone with
several months of inventory given
the current rate of demand for
homes in the quartile. Watch the
quartile for changes before the
overall market shifts. Often one end
of the market (e.g. the low end) wil
improve and signal a strengthening
market before the whole group
changes.The quartiles can help you answer the question, "How hot is the market for homesin my price range?"
MARKET ACTION
Kyle Frazier's Market Update for TIBURON
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8/14/2019 Kyle Frazier Market Update [SF]_CA_TIBURON_2009!07!24
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Kyle Frazier, CRS | Morgan Lane Real Estate | NorthBayRE.com | 415-350-9440
DAYS ON MARKET (DOM)
The properties have been on the
market for an average of 177 days.
Half of the listings have come
newly on the market in the past
119 or so days.
DOM PER QUARTILE
It is not uncommon for the higher
priced homes in an area to take
longer to sell than those in the
lower quartiles.
Kyle Frazier's Market Update for TIBURON
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8/14/2019 Kyle Frazier Market Update [SF]_CA_TIBURON_2009!07!24
7/10
Kyle Frazier, CRS | Morgan Lane Real Estate | NorthBayRE.com | 415-350-9440
94920Neighborhood DetailTIBURON
Most Expensive Listing
Least Expensive Listing
Median List Price
Average List Price
Real-Time Market Profile Trend
Total Inventory
$ 2,695,000
$ 3,785,165
$ 24,900,000
$ 810,000
83
177Average Days on Market
Asking Price per Square Foot $ 819
4Absorbed This Week
The median single family home
price in TIBURON 94920 this
week is $2,695,000.
THIS WEEK
Median Number of Bedrooms
Median Number of Bathrooms
Median House Size (sq ft)
Median Lot Size
Median Age
3,209
4.0
3.5
39Altos Research Value Statistics
0.25 - 0.50 acre
Market Action Index 13Cold! Buyer's
Inventory has been lightening
lately and the Market Action Index
has been trending up. Though days
on-market is increasing, these are
mildly positive indications for the
market.
PRICE
The market for this zip code
continues its bounce again this
week. Were a long way from the
markets high point so watch theMarket Action Index to predict
how long this trend will last.
Kyle Frazier's Market Update for TIBURON
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8/14/2019 Kyle Frazier Market Update [SF]_CA_TIBURON_2009!07!24
8/10
Kyle Frazier, CRS | Morgan Lane Real Estate | NorthBayRE.com | 415-350-9440
PRICE PER QUARTILE
In the quartile market segments, w
see the upper end of the market in
this zip code showing signs of
strength. While this strength hasn
percolated through to Quartiles 3
and 4 yet, expect the low end of the
market to follow up, should the
upper-end strength continue.
QUARTILESCharacteristics per Quartile
Bed BathMed. Sqft Med.
Age Inven. NewAb-
sorbedMed. Lot SizeMedian PriceQuartAvg.DoM
Most expensive 25% of homes0.50 - 1.0 acre
5,456 5.0 5.8 11 20 0 1$ 7,225,0001 221
Upper-middle 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50
acre3,658 5.0 3.5 42 21 1 0$ 3,198,0002 127
Lower-middle 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50
acre2,866 4.0 3.0 38 21 1 1$ 1,950,0003 227
Least expensive 25% of homes1,985 3.0 2.0 55 21 0 26,501 - 8,000
sq ft$ 1,260,0004 136
This is a market where watching
the value metrics (like price per
square foot) can provide insight
that you dont get at first glance.
Despite the fact that home prices
are rising fairly consistently, the
price per square foot of homes
listed is declining. Often this can be
attributed to new and remodeled
homes on the market. Buyers in tharea are paying more but also
getting more for their money.
PRICE AND VALUE
Kyle Frazier's Market Update for TIBURON
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8/14/2019 Kyle Frazier Market Update [SF]_CA_TIBURON_2009!07!24
9/10
Kyle Frazier, CRS | Morgan Lane Real Estate | NorthBayRE.com | 415-350-9440
INVENTORY
Inventory has been falling in recen
weeks with 83 properties available
this week. Note that declining
inventory alone does not signal a
strengthening market. Look to the
Market Action Index to gauge
whether buyer interest is falling
with the available supply.
The TIBURON 94920 is quite
strongly in the Buyer's Market
zone. The 90-day Market ActionIndex stands at 13. With several
months of inventory available at
the current sales rate, buyers
should find ample choice.
MARKET ACTION INDEX
MARKET ACTIONNot surprisingly, all quartiles are in
the Buyers Market zone with
several months of inventory given
the current levels of demand.
Watch the quartiles for changes
before the overall market shifts.
Kyle Frazier's Market Update for TIBURON
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8/14/2019 Kyle Frazier Market Update [SF]_CA_TIBURON_2009!07!24
10/10
Kyle Frazier, CRS | Morgan Lane Real Estate | NorthBayRE.com | 415-350-9440
DAYS ON MARKETThe properties have been on the
market for an average of 177 days.
Half of the listings have come newly
on the market in the past 119 or so
days. Watch the 90-day DOM trend
for signals of a changing market.
DAYS ON MARKET
It is not uncommon
for the higher priced homes in an
area (Quartiles 1 and 2) to take
longer to sell than those in the
lower quartiles.
About Altos Research CorporationAltos Research Corp. reports real-time analysis of the residential real estate market in local markets acrossthe country. All information contained herein is based on properties currently listed for sale and available
publicly. When evaluating a particular property, make sure you use comparable sales data in addition tothe market trend information available in this report. The data presented in this report is accurate to thebest of our knowledge, but cannot be guaranteed as such. Use this report as one input in the real estatedecision making process, but do not rely on it for accuracy. Nothing in this report or any other AltosResearch publication is a recommendation to buy or to sell real estate. We recommend you work with alicensed real estate agent or broker.
Altos Research LLC Copyright 2005-2009. All Rights Reserved www.altosresearch.com
1Kyle Frazier's Market Update for TIBURON
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