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K+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS Best of Germany One on One Conference New York 1314 September 2016 Mark Roberts, Member of the Board of Executive Directors Patrick Kofler, Senior Investor Relations Manager

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Page 1: K+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS Best of Germany One on  · PDF fileK+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS Best of Germany One on One Conference New ... C Outlook 2 Salt ... Business and technical

K+S Aktiengesellschaft

UBS Best of Germany One on One Conference New York13‐14 September 2016

Mark Roberts, Member of the Board of Executive DirectorsPatrick Kofler, Senior Investor Relations Manager

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K+S Group 2

ContentK+S Group

K+S’ Unique Strategic PositionA

Current TradingB

OutlookC

Salt2

Potash and Magnesium Products1

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K+S Group 3

Investment CaseK+S Group

Complementary Activities

Salt Business Unit

Potash and Magnesium Products Business Unit

K+S Group

Geographicreach

Broad productportfolio

Positionedfor growth

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K+S Group 4

Our ProductsK+S Group

in % of sales volumes, FY 2015

Potash and Magnesium Products Salt

Industrial products

Specialties

KCl (MOP)

De‐icing

Industrial

Salt for chemical use

Food processing

46%56%

44%16%

10%

14%

8%6%

Consumer

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K+S Group

From Capex to CashK+S Group

5

Capex PhaseCapex Phase Cash Phase 2020Cash Phase 2020

Net debt< € 2.0 billion

Leverage1.0‐1.5x

CapexMaintenance

FCFPositive

EBITDA4

~ € 1.6 billion

Net debt1€ 2.9 billion

Leverage (LTM)3.6x

Capex2€ 1.3 billion

FCFNegative

EBITDA3

€ 0.5‐0.6 billion

Keeping cost discipline above and beyond “Fit for the Future”

Successful implementation of “Salt 2020“ 

Strategy

Enhancing portfolio of 

higher yielding products

Managing environmental challenges 

particularly in Germany

Successful commissioning 

of Legacy

Management Agenda

Fundamentals of the potash business expected to improve4

1 Q2/16 2 2015

3 Guidance 20164 Main assumptions: Unaffected potash production in Germany and Canada; Potash price level of summer 2015; 

USD/EUR 1.10; normal winters in North America and Europe.

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K+S Group 6

ContentK+S Group

K+S’ Unique Strategic PositionA

Current TradingB

OutlookC

Salt2

Potash and Magnesium Products1

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K+S Group 7

Long‐Term Dynamics Positive for FertilizerPotash and Magnesium Products

4.300 m2 2.100 m2 1.800 m2

Global population development

Arable Landper capita

Proteinper capita

60 g/ day 80 g/ day 130 g/ day1)

Jahr

3.0 billion

Less arable land – but more protein consumption per capita

Each year additional 80m people need to be fed – this equals to the population of Germany

Available arable land per capita will decrease at the same time

By 2050 an expanded world population will be consuming two thirds more animal protein than it does today

In 2050, only roughly a quarter of a soccer field will be available to feed one person year round - 80 percent of future growth in crop production will come from yield

advancements driven by balanced use of fertilizers

6.9 billion 9.7 billion

1960 2010 2050

Sources: UN, World Population Prospects, 2012 Revision, UNDP, 2013; FAOStat 20141) FAO 2014 ‐ forecasts based on the expected increase in animal protein

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K+S Group 8

Utilizing Entire Range of Minerals in Complex DepositsPotash and Magnesium Products

KCl 16.1%

Kieserite 20.4%

Residue 63.5%

e.g. Neuhof 2014

Mineral extraction

Reducing specific costs of our MOP products

KieseriteKieserite

Korn‐KaliKorn‐Kali

Magnesia‐KainitMagnesia‐Kainit

MOPMOP

K+S product offering

SOPSOP

Extending our product offering

$$$

Raw Salt

KCL (MOP)3.1

Industrial products0.7

Specialties3.0

Basis: 2015 Sales volumes in million tons

6.8

SOPSOP

Korn‐KaliKorn‐Kali

KieseriteKieserite

Industrial potashIndustrial potash

Health Care & Nutrition

Health Care & Nutrition

Fertilizer Industrial Applications

Health Care & Nutrition

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K+S Group 9

Leading Position in EuropePotash and Magnesium Products

Europe

South America

Asia

Other regions

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K+S Group 10

Q12012

Q12013

Q12014

Q12015

Q12016

Bas

is: Q

120

12

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Basis: Q120

14

K+S average selling price versus selected peers

MOP gran. Europe vs. Brazil (Source: FMB)

200

300

400

500

600

200

300

400

500

600

Europe (€, Granular, cfr)

Brazil(US$/t, Granular, cfr)

US$/t  €/t

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

K+S K+S

Potash and Magnesium ProductsOur Unique Portfolio Makes Us More Robust

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K+S Group 11

Measures for the short‐termPotash and Magnesium Products

Commissioning of KCF(1)

Further reduction of saline wastewater by 

1.5 million m3

Underground storage of saline 

wastewater in own mines 

Underground storage of saline wastewater in 3rdparty premises

Bunch of further measures

Identification and implementation of measures to bridge 2016/2017

(1) Kainite Crystallization and Flotation facility

20

14

10

7 7 75.5

1997 2006 2012 2015 2016 2017 Beyond

Wastewater disposal in million m³

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K+S Group 12

Strengthening our Global Presence Legacy Project

ChinaIndiaSouth East Asia

North America

South America

Expanding our current production portfolio in Germany with a North American production site Second source supplier

Securing a good asset base with competitive production costs

Sales and distribution through existing distribution structures of the K+S group

Exclusive outline agreement with Koch Fertilizer about supply and sales of Potash fertilizers in the US

Regional growth projects in China and SEA Flexible multi‐product strategy

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K+S Group 13

Commissioning on trackLegacy Project

No injuries 1 of 5 crystallizers dropped Impact on ramp‐up: 

Commissioning continues

Production of first ton delayed into Q2/17 

Production volume 2017 below previously planned (up to 1 million tons)

Capacity of 2 million tons p.a. will be reached by the end of 2017 as planned from today’s point of view

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K+S Group 14

ValuationLegacy Project

~90

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Co

stsp

er to

n (CAD

)

Volume ramp‐up (m metric tons) /costs per ton (CAD)

Production costs Logistics costs Mining taxes/ royalties

<1              ~2             ~2.1          ~2.3           ~2.4           ~2.6          ~2.9Sales volumes (m metric tons)

Implied Value Per Share (€)

Terminal growth rate

0% 2%

WAC

C

7% ~ 21

8% ~ 11

Volume ramp‐up (m metric tons)/ costs per ton (CAD)

Main assumptions:

Unaffected potash production Potash price level of summer 2015 

(time of release of guidance)

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K+S Group 15

Acquisition in ChinaPotash and Magnesium Products

Huludao Magpower Fertilizers Co., one of the largest producers of synthetic magnesium sulphate (SMS)

SMS is used as fertilizer for oil palms, soybeans and sugar cane as well as for industrial applications

Strengthen our competitive position in specialties

Improved access to growth markets of South‐East Asia and China

Scalable low cost production assets

Huludao

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K+S Group 16

ContentK+S Group

K+S’ Unique Strategic PositionA

Current TradingB

OutlookC

Salt2

Potash and Magnesium Products1

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K+S Group

Salt

17

Low single‐digit demand growth p.a. to 20181

1 Source: Roskill

Demand driven by … Product category

Long‐Term Dynamics in Salt Demand

De‐Icing

Food processingPopulation growth

Economic growth andindustrialisation

Winter weather conditions

Infrastructure development

Increasing standard of living

Industrial

ChemicalUrbanization

Consumer

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K+S Group

Inevitable for lifeSalt

18

Main Applications:  Food processing 

industry  Baking industry Condiment and 

preservative agent

Main Applications:  Chemical industry Chlor‐Alkali 

processes (→ PVC) Polycarbonates ,

MDI (Isocyanat)(→ plastics, synthetic resin)

Synthetic Soda Ash (→ glass)

Main Applications: Winter road 

maintenance services

Commercial users Private 

households

Main Applications: Water treatment Drilling fluids Animal feed Infusion, dialysis

solutions Pharmaceuticals Preserving of fish Dyeing works Leather treatment

De‐Icing Food processing Industrial ChemicalConsumer

Main Applications: Table salt Dishwasher care Water softening Pool chlorination Body care

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K+S Group 19

Unrivalled Global Production NetworkSalt

Competitive edge: Unrivalled global 

production network

More than 30 assets on 3 continents allow close proximity to customers in a business that is highly freight‐cost sensitive

Ensuring close proximity to customers Broad range of products due to variety of production methods Best in class supply chain assets and competence Industry best cost production in Chile 

Expansion into Asia‐Pacific: 

Project Launch in Australia

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K+S Group 20

Diverse Regional and Product PortfolioSalt

NormalizedRevenue 

Distribution

Consumer

Industrial

Food processing

Salt for chemical use

1 De-icing adjusted to normal winter

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K+S Group 21

Presence in Attractive De‐Icing Markets Salt

Indicative regional strength of winter

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Europe North America

Great LakesUS East Coast

Eastern Canada

Central Europe

Scandinavia

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K+S Group 22

‘Salt 2020’ Strategy – On TrackSalt

211

62

118

173

266

250+Normalized

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020e

Equalsmore than€ 400 millionEBITDA

Expected EBIT development 

Safety first!

Remove silo thinking

Transparency/trust

High performance and engaged workforce

Fit for the Future

Business and technical processes

Supply chain and distribution network improvements

Market share growth

New segments

New regions

Actual results

Salt 2020 Launched

Priority areas

GROWTH CULTUREEFFICIENCY

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K+S Group 23

Expansion into Asia‐Pacific: Project Launch in AustraliaSalt

“We want this project to give a boost to our planned expansion into the Asian markets. We see big potential there, and want to sustainably participate in the 

expected growth there in the future. The purchase of the licenses is the foundation to achieve this.” Mark Roberts, CEO Salt 

Component of “Salt 2020” strategy Initial focus on obtaining necessary 

permits CapEx estimate of around € 225 million Estimated production capacity of 3.5 

million tons p.a. Main customers in the chemical industry 

in Asia Possible production start in 2022

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K+S Group 24

ContentK+S Group

K+S’ Unique Strategic PositionA

Current TradingB

OutlookC

Salt2

Potash and Magnesium Products1

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K+S Group 25

P&LK+S Group

€million FY/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 FY/15 Q1/16 Q2/16

Revenues 3,822 1,377 914 891 993 4,175 1,096 732

EBIT I 641 317 179 132 154 782 218 15

t/o insurance gain 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EBIT I w/o insur. gain 605 317 179 132 154 782 218 15

Margin 16% 23% 20% 15% 16% 19% 20% 2%

Financial result ‐126 ‐40 ‐14 ‐7 +27 ‐34 ‐13 ‐15

EBT, adjusted 515 276 166 125 181 748 205 0

Tax rate, adjusted 29% 28% 28% 29% 25% 28% 28% 29%

Net income, adjusted 367 198 119 89 136 542 148 0

EPS, adjusted 1.92 1.04 0.62 0.46 0.71 2.83 0.77 0.00

The adjusted key figures only include operating forecast hedges of the respective reporting period in EBIT I. In addition, related effects on deferred and cash taxes are also excluded.

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K+S Group

2013 2014 2015 2016

>150

30

>180

26

Cost Discipline Will Remain HighK+S Group

on track

€ million

“Fit for the Future” on track More than 2/3 of total 

aspirations achieved Measures implemented will 

continue beyond 2016 with full effects until 2018

Further top‐down measures beyond “Fit for the Future” initiated Effects coming through in 

2017 and 2018

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K+S Group 27

Cash Flow and Balance SheetK+S Group

€million FY/14 Q1/15 H1/15 9M/15 FY/15 Q1/16 H1/16

Operating cash flow 707 301 433 630 669 294 359

‐ Investing cash flow(pre sale/ purchase of securities)

‐1,013 ‐203 ‐532 ‐894 ‐1,305 ‐243 ‐537

Adjusted free cash flow ‐306 98 ‐93 ‐264 ‐636 50 ‐178

CapEx 1,153 200 555 905 1,279 280 643

Net debt (‐) ‐1,626 ‐1,602 ‐2,019 ‐2,224 ‐2,400 ‐2,367 ‐2,860

t/o Net financial debt (‐) ‐591 ‐440 ‐811 ‐1,005 ‐1,364 ‐1,315 ‐1,756

Net debt/ EBITDA (LTM) 1.8 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5 3.6

Equity ratio 51% 52% 52% 51% 52% 52% 49%

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K+S Group 28

Debt ProfileK+S Group

Bond I € 500 million(expn. June 2022; coupon: 3.000%)

Bond II € 500 million(expn. Dec 2021; coupon: 4.125%)

Bond III € 500 million(expn. Dec 2018; coupon: 3.125%)

RCF € 1 billion

Debt Instruments

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Schuldschein € 700 million(3-yrs: € 295 million; 5-yrs: € 365 million; 7-yrs: € 40 million)

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K+S Group 29

Potash and Magnesium ProductsK+S Group

(1) (Revenues – EBIT) / Sales volumes (2) Excluding OpEx Legacy (3) Excl. anticipated insurance payment

€ million FY/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 FY/15 Q1/16 Q2/16

Revenues 1,884 608 501 471 511 2,091 461 371

EBIT I 489 183 144 92 127 546 102 15

t/o insurance gain 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EBIT I w/o insurance gain 455 183 144 93 127 546 102 15

Margin 24% 30% 29% 20% 25% 26% 22% 4%

t/o Legacy OpEx ‐37 ‐13 ‐20 ‐15 ‐20 ‐68 ‐19 ‐21

Avg. selling price (€/t) 274 314 310 310 292 307 272 250

Sales volumes (million tons) 6.87 1.94 1.61 1.52 1.75 6.82 1.69 1.48

FY/14(3) Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 FY/15 Q1/16 Q2/16

Costs per ton (1,2) 208 212 209 239 208 217 201 226

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K+S Group 30

SaltK+S Group

€million FY/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 FY/15 Q1/16 Q2/16

Revenues 1,779 727 374 382 442 1,925 595 319

EBIT I 173 142 43 43 39 266 123 5

Margin 10% 20% 11% 11% 9% 14% 21% 2%

Sales volumes (million tons) 23.6 9.1 3.6 3.8 4.7 21.1 7.1 2.9

De‐icing 14.4 6.9 1.2 1.5 2.3 11.9 4.9 0.6

Non de‐icing 9.2 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.4 9.2 2.2 2.3

Average selling prices (€)

De‐icing 53 65 65 62 67 65 64 53

Non de‐icing 104 119 120 124 118 120 122 123

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K+S Group 31

ContentK+S Group

K+S’ Unique Strategic PositionA

Current TradingB

OutlookC

Salt2

Potash and Magnesium Products1

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K+S Group

K+S GroupGuidance FY 2016: EBIT I Bridge

32

Actual2015

Volume‐/price

Missing deep‐well injection

permit

Othereffects(net)

Fit for theFuture

2016e

782

€ million

200

300

2016e EBIT range

Main effects:‐ OpEx Legacy‐ Higher D&A

Main assumptions:Potash• Lower YoY potash ASP• Hydrological normal year• Execution of countermeasures• Sales volumes 6.2‐6.4 million tons

Salt• Moderate decline of de‐icing volumes• Slight increase of non de‐icing volumes

may not offset this

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K+S Group

K+S GroupDividend Increase of 28% for 2015

33

Target payout ratio of 40‐50%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Payout ratio (lhs) Dividend yield (rhs)2)

Earnings-based dividend policy

Payout ratio of 40 – 50% of adjusted net profit

Dividend 2015: € 1.15 per share(2014: € 0.90 per share)

1) Based on year-end share prices

1)

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K+S Group 34

IR Contact DetailsK+S Group

E-Mail: [email protected]: www.k-plus-s.comIR-website: www.k-plus-s.com/en/ir

K+S AktiengesellschaftBertha-von-Suttner-Str. 734131 Kassel (Germany)

Laura SchumberaJunior Investor Relations ManagerPhone.: +49 561 / 9301-1607Fax: +49 561 / [email protected]

Thorsten BoeckersHead of Investor RelationsPhone: +49 561 / 9301-1460Fax: +49 561 / [email protected]

Andrea RachInvestor Relations AssistantPhone: +49 561 / 9301-1100Fax: +49 561 / [email protected]

Martin HeistermannSenior Investor Relations ManagerPhone.: +49 561 / 9301-1403Fax: +49 561 / [email protected]

Patrick KoflerSenior Investor Relations ManagerPhone.: +49 561 / 9301-1885Fax: +49 561 / [email protected]

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K+S Group 35

Forward‐Looking StatementsK+S Group

This presentation contains facts and forecasts that relate to the future development of the K+S

Group and its companies. The forecasts are estimates that we have made on the basis of all the

information available to us at this moment in time. Should the assumptions underlying

these forecasts prove not to be correct or should certain risks – such as those referred to in

the Risk Report of the Annual Report – materialize, actual developments and events may deviate

from current expectations. The Company assumes no obligation to update the statements, save

for the making of such disclosures as are required by the provisions of statute.

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K+S Group

Page 37: K+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS Best of Germany One on  · PDF fileK+S Aktiengesellschaft UBS Best of Germany One on One Conference New ... C Outlook 2 Salt ... Business and technical

K+S Group 37

K+S Group

K+S Aktiengesellschaft · Bertha-von-Suttner-Straße 7 · 34131 Kassel | Germany · Internet: www.k-plus-s.comInvestor Relations · phone: +49 (0)561 / 9301-1100 · fax: +49 (0)561 / 9301-2425 · email: [email protected]

Financial Calendar 2016/17: 10 Nov: Q3/16 – 16 Mar: FY/16

K+S Share• WKN: KSAG88• ISIN: DE000KSAG888 • Ticker-Symbols:

Bloomberg SDF / Reuters SDFG

K+S ADR• CUSIP: 48265W108 • ADR Ticker-Symbol:

Bloomberg: KPLUY / Reuters: KPLUY.PK

K+S Bond 06/2022• WKN: A1P GZ8• ISIN: DE000A1PGZ82

K+S Bond 12/2018• WKN: A1Y CR4 • ISIN: XS0997941199

K+S Bond 12/2021• WKN: A1Y CR5• ISIN: XS0997941355