kpmg 9th annual mining executive forum · in construction reserve/resource grade +1.7g/t au eq(2012...
TRANSCRIPT
KPMG 9th A l Mi i E ti F
1
KPMG 9th Annual Mining Executive ForumSeptember 19, 2013
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT ON FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION
Certain information contained or incorporated by reference in this presentation, including any information as to our strategy, projects, plans or future financial or operating performance constitutes "forward-looking statements”. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, are forward-looking statements. The words “believe”, "expect", “anticipate”, “contemplate”, “target”, “plan”, “intend”, “continue”, “budget”, “estimate”, “may”, “will”, “schedule” and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking g y p y g gstatements are necessarily based upon a number of estimates and assumptions that, while considered reasonable by the Company, are inherently subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies. Known and unknown factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Such factors include, but are not limited to: fluctuations in the spot and forward price of gold and copper or certain other commodities (such as silver, diesel fuel and electricity); changes in national and local government legislation, taxation, controls, regulations, expropriation or nationalization of property and political or economic developments in Canada, the United States and other jurisdictions in which the Company does or may carry on po t ca o eco o c de e op e ts Ca ada, t e U ted States a d ot e ju sd ct o s c t e Co pa y does o ay ca y obusiness in the future; diminishing quantities or grades of reserves; increased costs, delays, suspensions and technical challenges associated with the construction of capital projects; the impact of global liquidity and credit availability on the timing of cash flows and the values of assets and liabilities based on projected future cash flows; adverse changes in our credit rating; the impact of inflation; fluctuations in the currency markets; operating or technical difficulties in connection with mining or development activities; the speculative nature of mineral exploration and development, including the risks of obtaining necessary licenses and permits; contests over title to properties particularly title to undeveloped properties; risk of loss due to acts of war terrorism sabotage and civil disturbances; changesproperties, particularly title to undeveloped properties; risk of loss due to acts of war, terrorism, sabotage and civil disturbances; changes in U.S. dollar interest rates; risks arising from holding derivative instruments; litigation; business opportunities that may be presented to, or pursued by, the Company; our ability to successfully integrate acquisitions or complete divestitures; employee relations; availability and increased costs associated with mining inputs and labor; and the organization of our African gold operations and properties under a separate listed company. In addition, there are risks and hazards associated with the business of mineral exploration, development and mining, including environmental hazards, industrial accidents, unusual or unexpected formations, pressures, cave-ins, flooding and gold bullion copper cathode or gold/copper concentrate losses (and the risk of inadequate insurance or inability to obtain insurance to coverbullion, copper cathode or gold/copper concentrate losses (and the risk of inadequate insurance, or inability to obtain insurance, to cover these risks). Many of these uncertainties and contingencies can affect our actual results and could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made by, or on behalf of, us. Readers are cautioned that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. All of the forward-looking statements made in this presentation are qualified by these cautionary statements. Specific reference is made to the most recent Form 40-F/Annual Information Form on file with the SEC and Canadian provincial securities regulatory authorities for a discussion of some of the factors underlying forward-looking t t t
2
statements.
We disclaim any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law.
A Decade of Rising Gold Prices
Spot Gold Price (US$/ounce)
$1,800
Fear of Cyprus/EU gold salesto cover bailouts
$1,400
$1,600
$1,000
$1,200
QE2
GreeceBailout
QE TaperingAnnounced
FinancialCrisis
$600
$800ETF
Launched
QE1
QE2Announced
$200
$400
QE1Announced
3
$001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Source: Bloomberg
Positive Gold Price Fundamentals
Uncertain macroeconomic environment and continued accommodative monetary policy by many central banksy p y y yFuture inflation prospectsReserve currency devaluation limited h i f lt ti f h i t tchoice of alternative safe haven investments
Geopolitical issuesCentral Bank net buying continuesCentral Bank net buying continuesPhysical demand remains strong, particularly in emerging markets f Chi d I diof China and India
Scarcity of new, large discoveries and projects; shift from focus on
4
and projects; shift from focus onproduction growth at any cost
4
ETF – the alternative investment
2 500
Total Known ETF Holdings (tonnes)
2,000
2,500
1,500
,
1,000
500
5
005 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Source: UBS
Equity / Gold Price Disconnect
Gold Equity Index (XAU) - (% of Gold Price)200%
150%
175%
125%
150%
75%
100%
50%
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
6
25%04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Source: FT and Bloomberg
Shrinking Junior Miners
Market Cap of Top 100 Junior Miners Listed on TSX-V
$20.6BJUNE 30, 2011
43%
$11.7BJUNE 30, 2012 70%
$6.2BJUNE 30, 2013
7Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers and Bloomberg
Trends in a Rising Gold Price Environment
Focus on Rising operating Resourcenationalism
Focus onproduction
growth
Rising operatingand
capital costs
Declining free cash flowLoss of investor confidence
8
Need for fundamental change
Focus on Production Growth
KupolPebble Mayskoye
Reserve size over 1 million ounces of gold
Cortez Hills
Oyu Tolgoi
KupolBlagodatnoe
M liVasilkovskoye
NezhdaninskoyeÉléonore
MeadowbankDonlin Gold NatalkaSukhoi Log
Rosia MontanaCortez Hills
Sari GunayÇöpler
Reko Diq
Maoling
PeñasquitoPueblo Viejo
Pinos Altos
Xietongmen
Jinfeng
Efemcukuru
Essakane
Quimsacocha
Boyongon
Moto
AkyemFruta del Norte
Pueblo Viejo
Las Cristinas/Brisas
MasbateCerro Blanco
Esquel
Esperanza ProminentHill
El MorroCerro CasalePascua Lama
GualcamayoBoddington
9Source: SNL-MEG 2013
Gold Industry Pipeline
C L kLivengood
+15Moz +10Moz +5MozReserve/Resource Size Grade +1.7g/t Au Eq (2012 Global Wtd Avg Head Grade)
Donlin Gold NatalkaSukhoi Log
BrucejackKyzyl
Courageous Lake
Rosia Montana
GaloreCreek
New Prosperity
Casino
Mt Milligan
Schaft Creek
KSM
Metates
Fruta del Norte Wafi Golpu
Akyem
C
Cobre Panama
Las CristinasBrisas
Kibali
Cerro CasaleSouthern Free State GoldfieldEl Morro
Conga
Lobo Marte Agua Rica
Mt Todd
Namosi
CaspichePascua Lama
10Source: SNL-MEG 2013
Cerro Negro
Gold Industry Pipeline
C L k
In Construction Reserve/Resource Grade +1.7g/t Au Eq (2012 Global Wtd Avg Head Grade)
Donlin Gold Sukhoi LogBrucejack
Kyzyl
Courageous Lake
Fruta del Norte
Kibali
Wafi Golpu
Akyem
Pascua LamaSouthern Free State Goldfield
11Source: SNL-MEG 2013
Cerro Negro
Mine Supply Inelasticity
$1,700Gold Price (US$)
150Mine Supply (M oz)
$1,400 120Price437%
$1,100 90
437%
Mine
$800 60
MineSupply9%
$500 30
12
$20002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
0
Sources: Thomson Reuters GFMS, Bloomberg
Declining Grades
$1,700Gold Price (US$)
2.2Weighted Average Gold Grade (g/t)
$1,400 2.1Price437%
$1,100 2.0
437%
$800 1.9Grade19%
$500 1.8
19%
13
$20002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
1.7
Sources: Bloomberg, SNL-MEG
Sustaining Capital
+7 10%Higher labor costsHigher energy costs
PER ANNUM
$300/oz+7 10%PER ANNUM
Higher energy costsLess experienced personnel
UNDERGROUND
$200/ pOther inflationary pressures
$200/ozOPEN PIT
14Source: CIBC World Markets Inc.
Change in Cost Reporting
Previous industry cost metric did not provide true picture of operating performancep p g pLed to investor disappointment, unrealistic government expectationsWorld Gold Council’s all-in sustaining cost (AISC) measure better represents total cost of producing gold
Positive response by investors and media– “Gold’s ‘All-In’ Costs Will Spur Investment, Industry Group Says”
Bl b- Bloomberg– “New WGC gold cost guide should have investors dancing in
the streets” – Mineweb
15
– “New rules pressure miners to come clean on costs” - Reuters
Rising Industry “All-In Sustaining” Costs
(US$ per ounce)$1,200
$1,000
$600
$800
$400
$600
$200
16
$0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E
Source: TD Securities
Margin Growth Has Lagged Gold Prices
500%Indexed to 100 in 2002 - percent
400%
Gold Price
300%
200%
EBITDA Margin
100%
EBITDA MarginMajor Producers(1)
17
002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
(1) See final slide #3.
Barrick’s All-In Sustaining Cash Costs
55%15%Adjusted Operating
Costs
15%Other
40%Labor
10%Maintenance
35%Sustaining
Capex20%
15%Energy
R l i
6%G&A 2%
E l ti &
2%
Consumables
18
ReclamationExploration & Evaluation
Project Cost Overruns
120%Projected Cost Variances (for selected over-running capital infrastructure projects)
80%
100%For selected over-running projects, average
over-budget variance is 71%
40%
60%
g
0%
20%
40%
0%
(Iron
Ore
)
(Iron
Ore
)
(Iron
Ore
)
(Iron
Ore
)
(Dia
mon
d)
(Nic
kel)
a (N
icke
l)
(Mag
netit
e)
(Mag
netit
e)
m.(
Copp
er)
m.(
Alu
m)
m.(
Stee
l)
m. (
Gol
d)
m.(
Copp
er)
m. (
Mol
y)
m.(
Stee
l)
(Gol
d)
fic(C
oppe
r)
(Alu
min
a)
19
Note: Percentage variances between market-advised cost projections and original estimates for selected capital infrastructure projects
Aus
.
Aus
.
Aus
.
Aus
.
Aus
.
Aus
.
Afr
ica
Aus
.
Aus
.
S. A
m
S. A
m
S. A
m
N. A
m
N. A
m
N. A
m
N. A
m
Aus
.
Paci
fi
Aus
.
Source: Ernst & Young
Resource Nationalism
Venezuela – history of nationalization
Ecuador – 70% windfall tax
Ghana – 10% windfall tax
Quebec – recently imposed new profit-based mining tax
Mexico – proposed 7.5% net profits interest tax
Dominican Republic – revised Special Lease Agreement
20
Maintaining Social License to Operate
Rising investor and NGO pressure
G i b f ibilitiGrowing number of responsibilities
21
A Paradigm Shift is Underway
How are companies responding?
Shelving lowreturn, high risk
projects
Shift tofree cash flow vs. production
Focus on cost reduction
p j
Disciplined Capital Allocation
22
Barrick is Well Positioned
High quality 5 core long life mines in the Americas to generate ~60% of production at AISCe of
$700/oz in 2013asset base ~$700/oz in 2013High grade reserves
Lowest cost senior
d
Reduced 2013 AISC guidance by $100/oz75% of 2013 production at AISCef <$800/producer of <$800/oz
ll d dDisciplinedcapital
Returns will drive productionFocus on risk-adjusted returns & free cash flow$6B reduction to budgeted capex & costs
23
allocation $6B reduction to budgeted capex & costsOngoing portfolio optimization
High Quality Portfolio
2013e: 7.0-7.4 Moz of gold at AISC of $900-$975/oz
~60%Cortez, Goldstrike, , ,
Veladero, Lagunas Norte, Pueblo Viejo
75%at AISC of
~15%6 mines
<$800/oz(1)
~25%10 mines
6 mines
24(1) Reflects sale of Yilgarn South.
Barrick’s Response
Disciplined Capital Allocation Framework Adopted in mid-2012 prior to gold price weakness
Focuses on maximizing risk-adjusted rates of return d f h fland free cash flow
Includes sharp focus on cost control
Allowed us to react quickly in a lower gold price environment
Returns will drive production;production will not drive returns
25
production will not drive returns
Barrick’s Response
What We Have DoneIndependent of metal price declines
(US$/oz) Gold Price Decline1,800
Independent of metal price declinesDisciplined Capital Allocation Framework (risk-adjusted returns, free cash flow cost control and
1,700
free cash flow, cost control, and portfolio optimization)
Shelved high cost projects1 500
1,600
Cut/deferred $4B in capitalInitiated portfolio evaluation
Sold Barrick Energy1,400
1,500
Sold Barrick EnergyAgreement to sell Yilgarn SouthDecision to close Pierina
Launched companywide1,300
26Source: Bloomberg
Launched companywide overhead reviewQ4Q3 Q2Q1
2012 20131,200
Q3
Barrick’s Response
What We are Doing NowIn a lower metal price environment
(US$/oz) Gold Price Decline1,800
In a lower metal price environment
Cost control initiatives$2B in capital and cost
1,700
$ preductions in H1 2013New operating model
1 500
1,600
Maximizing cash flow at every mine (optimize first)
New life-of-mine plans at1,400
1,500
New life-of-mine plans at $1,100/oz
1,300
27Source: Bloomberg
Q4Q3 Q2Q1
2012 20131,200
Q3
Maintaining Social License to Operate
CSR Advisory Board
CSR leadership recognitiong
28
Industry Challenges and Opportunities
Challenges Opportunities
Free cash flow growth Shift to disciplined capital allocation
Rising all-in Sh f t d tiRising all in sustaining costs Sharper focus on cost reduction
Increased reporting transparencyResource nationalism Increased reporting transparency,community/government consultation
ResultIndustry response may result in lower mine supply, but this will create a healthier industry and is also
29
but this will create a healthier industry and is also supportive for the gold price
KPMG 9th A l Mi i E ti F
30
KPMG 9th Annual Mining Executive ForumSeptember 19, 2013
Footnotes
1. All-in sustaining costs per ounce are a non-GAAP financial performance measure with no standardized definition under IFRS. See pages 45-48 of Barrick’s Second Quarter 2013 Report.
2. 2013 estimate based on discussions and research estimates from BMO Capital Markets, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch and UBS between June 21 and September 9, 2013.
3 Source: Gold Fields Limited EBITDA margin is calculated as the weighted average of 8 major gold producers including: AngloGold3. Source: Gold Fields Limited. EBITDA margin is calculated as the weighted average of 8 major gold producers including: AngloGoldAshanti, Barrick, Harmony, Kinross, Goldcorp, Gold Fields, Newmont and Newcrest.
31