kopernik global investors · 1 day ago · portfolio characteristics,sector and country...
TRANSCRIPT
Kopernik Global Investors3Q 2020 Conference Call
Presented by:David B. Iben, CFACIO & Lead Portfolio Manager
The information presented herein is proprietary to Kopernik Global Investors, LLC. This material is approved for a presentation to authorized individuals only and, accordingly, thismaterial is not to be reproduced in whole or in part or used for any purpose except as authorized by Kopernik Global Investors, LLC.
Please consider all risks carefully before investing. The investment strategies managed by Kopernik are subject to certain risks such as market, investment style, interest rate,deflation, and illiquidity risk. Investments in small and mid-capitalization companies also involve greater risk and portfolio price volatility than investments in larger capitalizationstocks. Investing in non-U.S. markets, including emerging and frontier markets, involves certain additional risks, including potential currency fluctuations and controls, restrictionson foreign investments, less governmental supervision and regulation, less liquidity, less disclosure, and the potential for market volatility, expropriation, confiscatory taxation, andsocial, economic and political instability. Investments in energy and natural resources companies are especially affected by developments in the commodities markets, the supplyof and demand for specific resources, raw materials, products and services, the price of oil and gas, exploration and production spending, government regulation, economicconditions, international political developments, energy conservation efforts and the success of exploration projects. There can be no assurances that investment objectives willbe achieved.
Countries worldwide have experienced outbreaks of infectious illnesses and may be subject to other public health threats, infectious illnesses, diseases or similar issues in thefuture. Any spread of an infectious illness, public health threat or similar issue could reduce consumer demand or economic output, result in market closures, travel restrictions orquarantines, and generally have a significant impact on the economies of the affected country and other countries with which it does business, which in turn could adversely affectinvestments in that country and other affected countries.
Kopernik Global Investors, LLC is an investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended.
This document, as of October 15, 2020 is descriptive of how the Kopernik team manages the investment strategies offered by Kopernik. There is no guarantee that any strategy’sinvestment performance objectives will be achieved. This profile is not legally binding on Kopernik Global Investors, LLC or its affiliates.
© 2020 Kopernik Global Investors, LLC | Two Harbour Place | 302 Knights Run Avenue Suite 1225 | Tampa, Florida 33602 | 813.314.6100 | www.kopernikglobal.com
Important Information
2
Mutual Funds42%
Separate Accounts19%
UCITS25%
Private Funds8%
Collective Investment Trusts
6%
• Leadership and ownership by investment professionals
• 100% employee owned
• Equity participation for all professionals
• Principals invest alongside clients
• Capacity to be limited, enhancing return potential
3
Total Managed and Advisory Only Assets by Type (As of 9/30/2020)
• Kopernik Global All-Cap
• Kopernik Global Unconstrained
• Kopernik Global Long-Term Opportunities
• Kopernik International
Centering on Client Success
Managed AssetsMutual Funds $1,361.50 MMPrivate Funds $250.58 MMUCITS (Sub-advised) $832.58 MMSeparate Accounts $609.67 MMCollective Investment Trusts $185.73 MM
Total Firm AUM $3,240.06 MM
Advisory Only AssetsSeparate Accounts $919.05 MM
Total Managed and Advisory Only Assets: $4,159.11 MM
Kopernik Global Investors, LLC (“Kopernik”) is a globalequity investment management specialist, organized toensure a culture centered on client success.
Focused Offerings
Assets as of September 30, 2020 are preliminary.
Total Firm AUM Breakdown
4
Leadership Team
David B. Iben, CFAChief Investment OfficerLead Portfolio Manager
Neda YarichPresident
Kenneth Morgan IIIHead of Global Trading
Alissa Corcoran, CFADirector of Research
Analyst
Isabel SatraPortfolio Manager, Analyst
Chief Financial Officer
Mark McKinney, CFAPortfolio Manager
Analyst
Kassim Gaffar, CFAHead of Distribution
& Client Services
Sarah BertrandCounsel &
Chief Compliance Officer
Like our namesake, we are dedicated to reasoning over convention and to clients’ needs above convenience.
Our Investment Beliefs
Independent thought
Long-term global perspective
Limited capacity
Value as a prerequisite
Bottom-up fundamental analysis
Industry-tailored valuations
Group vetting
Mikolaj Kopernik, better known by the Latin spelling, Nicolaus Copernicus, proposed the heliocentric model of the universe in the early 1500s. Whatinterests us is the fact that he trusted his own observations instead of accepting what “everyone” thought to be true. He faced scorn for his “novel andincomprehensible” theses. Though primarily an astronomer, Kopernik set forth a version of the “quantity theory of money,” a principal concept ineconomics to the present day. He also formulated a version of Gresham’s Law, predating Gresham.
As independent thinkers, Kopernik Global Investors honors Mikolaj Kopernik in the contemporary investment world. We believe that accomplishedinvestors who trust their own analyses and instincts can generate significant excess returns as a result of market inefficiencies driven by erroneousprofessional and academic theories and practices.
5
Achieving Value through Independent Thought
In a year where political ambiguity is even worse than normal, Kopernik will demonstrate our lack of political
acumen by telling it straight
Kopernik Believes That:• Scarcity matters immensely• Price is paramount• Debt leverages the downside as well as the upside• We invest in businesses; we don’t play stocks, trends, themes, or stories• We have a fiduciary responsibility to research, analyze, and appraise all businesses prior to investment• The marketplace is not always efficient—and is often far from efficient• It is currently extremely inefficient• Humans are often irrational• Algorithms are programmed/taught to magnify that irrationality• This current marketplace is extremely bifurcated, portending extraordinary levels of risk and reward
6
7
PoliticsSeeing the Forest for the Trees
Trump Wins Biden Wins Democratic Congress
Republican Congress
Split Congress
Implicit Embrace of MMTDeficit SpendingSpiraling Debt LevelsAccommodating Fed
YesMassive
YesExtreme
YesMassive
YesExtreme
YesMassive
YesExtreme
YesMassive
YesExtreme
YesMassive
YesExtreme
Economy Quickly Returns to “Normal” Unlikely Unlikely Unlikely Unlikely Unlikely
Real Interest Rates Turn Positive Unimaginable Unimaginable Unimaginable Unimaginable Unimaginable
Confidence in Government is Restored Doubtful Doubtful Doubtful Doubtful Doubtful
Societal Divide Subsides Not Likely Not Likely Not Likely Not Likely Not Likely
Scarcity No Longer Matters Impossible Impossible Impossible Impossible Impossible
Price is Not Important Not a chance Not a chance Not a chance Not a chance Not a chance
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
Wealth EffectNet Household Wealth % of GDP1951 - 2020
Housing Bubble
Bubble of Everything?
8
Internet Bubble
Source: Bloomberg
9
Jim Grant is correct – Bonds represent “Return-free risk”-4.9%
-9.5%
-21.9%
-38.6%
-51.5%
-9.5%
-18.1%
-39.0%
-62.3%
-76.5%
-25.9%
-45.0%
-77.3%
-94.6%
-98.7%
-39.3%
-63.0%
-91.5%
-99.2% -99.9%-100%
-90%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
1% 2% 5% 10% 15%
5 Years 10 Years 30 Years 50 Years
“$16.6 trillion in global debt is priced to yield less than nothing.”
“In terms of sovereign debt, Austria, Germany and Switzerland are paid to borrow atmaturities as long as 15, 30, and 50 years, respectively.”
“Strategists at J.P. Morgan wrote last week the total stock of developed nation sovereign debtsporting a negative real yield now stands at $31 trillion. That’s double the reading of 2 yearsago, and equivalent to 76% of total developed nation sovereign debt, u from 57% in 2017”
Almost Daily Grant’s, 10/12/2020
Bond scenario analysis if rates move from 0% to X%Source: Bloomberg
10
“Financial markets are a free-flowing experiment in mass psychology” - Kevin Dowd (PitchBook)
A Postmortem of the ’99 Tech Exuberance
At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my
shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000
employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. That assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D
for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate.
Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64?
Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking?
-Scott McNealy, Sun Microsystems (post-1999 crash)
11
12
Currently, “What were you thinking?” is a pertinent question for the holders of 649 companies, with an
aggregate market cap of >$10 Trillion (with a T)
# of companies
AggregateMarket Cap($ Trillion)
Price to Sales
Price to Earnings
Average Mkt Cap
($ Billion)
Average YTD Perf
6Mo Sales
Growth Annualized
All 649 $10.1 15.40 90.80 $15.6 89% 11.80%
> $10 Billion 135 $9.4 15.00 70.60 $69.3 95% 11.70%
> $50 Billion 36 $7.1 14.10 55.90 $196.9 87% 12.10%
Source: Bloomberg
Fortunately, it’s a bifurcated market
0.55
0.65
0.75
0.85
0.95
1.05
1.15
1.25
1.35
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
RTY Index (Russell Small Cap)/RIY Index (Russell Large Cap) RatioDec 1978 – Oct 2020
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
MSCI World Growth Index/MSCI World Value Index – RatioDec 1974 – Oct 2020
$-
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017
International vs USMar 1967 – Oct 2020
MSCI World ETF (MXWO) S&P 500 (SPX) Nasdaq Composite (CCMP)
13
Source: BloombergSource: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
In the current liquidity-driven, algo-amplified popularity contest, we see tremendous opportunity residing in three
broad-based areas
• Latent Value
• Unpopular, career-risk fraught sectors/countries/regions
• Capitalizations that are smaller than the liquidity-hungry ETFs would prefer
15
Latent Value57%
Traditional Value42%
Kopernik Global All-Cap Model Portfolio
281%
138%
220%
0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300%
Potential Upside*
Global All-Cap Model Portfolio Traditional Value Latent Value
When looking for water, should one judge the amount coming through the waterspout or take a look behind the dam?
*Based on Kopernik’s Estimated Risk-Adjusted Intrinsic Value. Actual results may differ.
16
The Beauty of the Cycle—What once accounted for half of the country’s capital can be bought with
16% now!
Source: TheDailyShot.com, 10/8/2020
(All Energy, Materials, Utilities, and Industrials)
KopernikTraditional
Value Portfolio
17
0.26 0.51
0.66
2.17
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Federal Grid(FEES)
RusHydro(HYDR)
Electrobras(EBR)
Dow JonesUtility AverageIndex (UTIL)
Price to Book
3.26 3.22 4.45
22.50
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Federal Grid(FEES)
RusHydro(HYDR)
Electrobras(EBR)
Dow JonesUtility AverageIndex (UTIL)
Price to Earnings
3,423.3
307.2 129.7
- 500.0
1,000.0 1,500.0 2,000.0 2,500.0 3,000.0 3,500.0 4,000.0
Verizon (VZ) KT Corp (KT) China Telecom(CHA)
EV/ Total Subs
12.6
10.4
8.6
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Verizon (VZ) KT Corp (KT) China Telecom(CHA)
Price to Earnings
1,175.0
24.3 -
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
Tesla (TSLA) Hyundai (HYMTF)
Price to Earnings
45.8
0.6 -
5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0
Tesla (TSLA) Hyundai (HYMTF)
Price to Tangible Book Value
Utilities Communication Services Auto
23%
0.58
0.65
Cash Flow Yield
Price to Book
Price to Tangible Book
Source: Bloomberg, Calculation method uses GAAP/IFRS financials
*
* Adjusted earnings for one-time expense
18
SMALL CAP VS. LARGE CAP
Source: Bloomberg*Calculation method uses GAAP/IFRS financials and including companies with negative metrics.
Kopernik Global All-Cap Model Portfolio
Price to
Tangible Book
Enterprise Value to
Sales
Median
Small Cap (<$2 Billion) 0.51 0.45
Large Cap (>$2 Billion) 0.87 1.87
MSCI ACWI 1.72 3.53
19
Volatility Represents Opportunity, Not RiskSecurity Changes in Global All-Cap Rep Account
7/1/2020 – 9/30/2020New Net Added to Net Reduced Eliminated
China Mobile Ltd China Telecom Corp Ltd Hyundai Motor Co CommonChina Shenhua Energy Co Ltd Golden Agri-Resources Ltd New Gold Inc
First Resources Ltd Hyundai Motor Co Pref Pan American Silver CorpKasikornbank PCL Inpex Corp Sprott Inc
Korean Reinsurance Co Kamigumi Co Ltd Wheaton Precious Metals CorpSuzuken Co Ltd/Aichi Japan Kernel Holding SA
Tachi-S Co Ltd Turquoise Hill Resources LtdWest Japan Railway Co
20
Volatility Represents Opportunity, Not RiskSecurity Changes in International Rep Account
7/1/2020 – 9/30/2020New Net Added to Net Reduced Eliminated
AerCap Holdings NV China Mobile Ltd Cameco CorpHyundai Mobis Co Ltd China Telecom Corp Ltd Fresnillo PLC
West Japan Railway Co LG Corp Hyundai Motor Co CommonMitsubishi Corp Pan American Silver CorpMitsui & Co Ltd Royal Gold Inc
Tourmaline Oil CorpWheaton Precious Metals Corp
21
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Comm.Services
Cons.Disc.
Cons.Staples
Energy Financials HealthCare
Industrials Info.Tech.
Materials RealEstate
Utilities
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Canada Emerging Markets Europe Japan Pacific ex Japan US
Portfolio Region Weights
Portfolio Sector Weights Top Ten HoldingsName Country Port Weight %
Cameco Corp Canada 4.25Newcrest Mining Ltd Australia 4.00KT Corp South Korea 4.00Gazprom PJSC Russia 3.50China Telecom Corp Ltd China 3.25Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd Canada 3.00RusHydro PJSC Russia 2.75Seabridge Gold Inc Canada 2.75Electricite de France SA France 2.50Centerra Gold Inc Canada 2.50
Global All-Cap – Model Portfolio Characteristics (as of 9/30/2020)
**Small-Cap = less than $2 billion, Mid-Cap = $2 billion - $10 billion, Large-Cap = greater than $10 billionPortfolio weights and characteristics above are based on the holdings of a model portfolio as of September 30, 2020. Portfolio characteristics, sector and country designations are calculated using data from Bloomberg.The MSCI All Country World Index is a broad-based securities market index that captures over two thousand primarily large- and mid-cap companies across 23 developed and 26 emerging market countries. The MSCIAll Country World Index is different from the strategy in a number of material respects, including being much more diversified among companies and countries, having less exposure to emerging market and small-capcompanies, having no exposure to frontier markets and having no ability to invest in fixed income or derivative securities.
Portfolio % MSCI ACWI %Large-Cap** 29.8 91.6Mid-Cap** 28.2 8.3Small-Cap** 40.7 0.1
Developed Markets 58.6 87.6Emerging Markets 40.0 12.4
U.S. 6.3 58.3Non U.S. 92.3 41.7
Portfolio Characteristics
Excludes non-equity securities
22
0
5
10
15
20
25
Comm.Services
Cons.Disc.
Cons.Staples
Energy Financials HealthCare
Industrials Info.Tech.
Materials RealEstate
Utilities
0
10
20
30
40
50
Canada Emerging Markets Europe Japan Pacific ex Japan US
Portfolio Region Weights
Portfolio Sector Weights Top Ten HoldingsName Country Port Weight %
Newcrest Mining Ltd Australia 4.50Cameco Corp Canada 4.00Gazprom PJSC Russia 4.00China Telecom Corp Ltd China 3.50Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd Canada 3.50Wheaton Precious Metals Corp Canada 3.00Polyus PJSC Russia 3.00KT Corp South Korea 3.00NAC Kazatomprom JSC Kazakhstan 2.75Cenovus Energy Inc Canada 2.75
International – Model Portfolio Characteristics (as of 9/30/2020)
**Small-Cap = less than $2 billion, Mid-Cap = $2 billion - $10 billion, Large-Cap = greater than $10 billionPortfolio weights and characteristics above are based on the holdings of a model portfolio as of September 30, 2020. Portfolio characteristics, sector and country designations are calculated using data from Bloomberg. The MSCIAll Country World ex U.S. Index is a broad-based securities market index that captures over two thousand primarily large- and mid-cap companies across 22 developed and 26 emerging market countries. The MSCI All CountryWorld Index ex U.S. is different from the strategy in a number of material respects, including being much more diversified among companies and countries, having less exposure to emerging market and small-cap companies,having no exposure to frontier markets and having no ability to invest in fixed income or derivative securities.
Portfolio % MSCI ACWI ex US %Large-Cap** 31.0 83.4Mid-Cap** 33.2 16.4Small-Cap** 15.3 0.2
Developed Markets 41.5 70.3Emerging Markets 38.0 29.7
U.S. 2.0 -Non U.S. 77.5 100.0
Portfolio Characteristics
Excludes non-equity securities
“It’s not enough to be different – you also need to be correct. The problem is thatextraordinary performance comes only from correct nonconsensual forecasts, butnonconsensual forecasts are hard to make, hard to make correctly, and hard to act on. ”
- Howard Marks
Characteristics above are based on the holdings of a model portfolio as of September 30, 2020 and are calculated using data from Bloomberg. Calculation method is a weighted average using GAAP/IFRS financials and including companies with negative metrics.*Using an industry standard reporting, which utilizes harmonic average (a method of calculating an average value that lessens the impact of large outliers) as of September 30, 2020 characteristics are as follows:P/E: 20.57 (GAC), 27.43 (MSCI ACWI) | P/B: 0.59 (GAC), 2.50 (MSCI ACWI) | P/TBV: 0.62 (GAC), 2.50 (MSCI ACWI) | P/CF; 3.93 (GAC), 11.78 (MSCI ACWI) | EV/S: 1.16 (GAC), 2.25 (MSCI ACWI)The MSCI All Country World Index is a broad-based securities market index that captures over two thousand primarily large- and mid-cap companies across 23 developed and 26 emerging market countries. The MSCI All Country World Index is different from thestrategy in a number of material respects, including being much more diversified among companies and countries, having less exposure to emerging market and small- cap companies, having no exposure to frontier markets and having no ability to invest in fixedincome or derivative securities.
23
Kopernik Global All-Cap Portfolio Characteristics, as of September 30, 2020
41.42
43.01
Price to Earnings (P/E)*
5.83
0.80
Price to Book (P/B)*
11.08
0.88
Price to Tangible Book (P/TBV)*
24.35
6.65
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)*
$292,610
$11,922
Weighted Average Market Cap$USD, Millions
$9,866
$1,487
Median Market Cap$USD, Millions
5.06
1.17
Enterprise Value to Sales (EV/S)*
2.07
2.51
Yield TTM (Trailing 12 Months)
“It’s not enough to be different – you also need to be correct. The problem is thatextraordinary performance comes only from correct nonconsensual forecasts, butnonconsensual forecasts are hard to make, hard to make correctly, and hard to act on. ”
- Howard Marks
Characteristics above are based on the holdings of a model portfolio as of September 30, 2020 and are calculated using data from Bloomberg. Calculation method is a weighted average using GAAP/IFRS financials and including companies with negative metrics.*Using an industry standard reporting, which utilizes harmonic average (a method of calculating an average value that lessens the impact of large outliers) as of September 30, 2020, characteristics are as follows:P/E: 21.23 (INTL), 28.10 (MSCI ACWI ex US) | P/B: 0.57 (INTL), 1.66 (MSCI ACWI ex US) | P/TBV: 0.67 (INTL), 1.80 (MSCI ACWI ex US) | P/CF: 3.80 (INTL), 9.14 (MSCI ACWI ex US) | EV/S: 1.24 (INTL), 1.69 (MSCI ACWI ex US)The MSCI All Country World ex U.S. Index is a broad-based securities market index that captures over two thousand primarily large- and mid-cap companies across 22 developed and 26 emerging market countries. The MSCI All Country World Index ex U.S. isdifferent from the strategy in a number of material respects, including being much more diversified among companies and countries, having less exposure to emerging market and small-cap companies, having no exposure to frontier markets and having no abilityto invest in fixed income or derivative securities.
24
Kopernik International Portfolio Characteristics, as of September 30, 2020
36.39
24.41
Price to Earnings (P/E)*
$98,672
$16,078
Weighted Average Market Cap$USD, Millions
3.39
1.21
Price to Book (P/B)*
$7,883
$5,448
Median Market Cap$USD, Millions
5.34
1.32
Price to Tangible Book (P/TBV)*
4.62
1.48
Enterprise Value to Sales (EV/S)*
20.12
7.65
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)*
2.59
2.78
Yield TTM (Trailing 12 Months)
• Scarcity matters immensely• Debt is all too abundant, and arguably uninvestable• The money stock is losing scarcity value at an alarming rate• There is an unmistakable global move toward variants of MMT policy• U.S. stocks are the most expensive, and hence riskier than at any point in history• Fortunately, while irrational behavior drives short-term returns, fundamentals eventually win• Bifurcation (the valuation distance between some categories and others) is at an all-time extreme• Counterintuitively, scarce is cheap relative to abundant• Real assets are cheap relative to financial assets• Value is cheap relative to momentum• Graham & Dodd value is cheap relative to “quality franchise” value• Small cap is cheap relative to large cap• It is an exciting time to be an active manager!
In Summary Kopernik Believes That:
25
The “Return on Patience” Appears Exceptionally High!
“Why is it that it takes a real bear market to get analysts interested in the value approach?”
-Benjamin Graham
“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the longrun, it is a weighing machine.”
-Benjamin Graham
“Patient opportunism – waiting for bargains – is often your best strategy”
–Howard Marks
“I think the record shows the advantage of a peculiar mind-set –not seeking action for its own sake, but instead combiningextreme patience with extreme decisiveness”
-Charlie Munger
“Patience can produce uncommon profits” -Philip L. Carret
“The big profits go to the intelligent, careful and patient investor,not to the reckless and overeager speculator”
-J. Paul Getty"[There] is the need for patience if big profits are to be made frominvestment. Put another way, it is often easier to tell what willhappen to the price of a stock than how much time will elapsebefore it happens"
-Phil Fisher
THANK YOU
Q&A Session