konjunktur- och börsanalys 2014-05 - eqr · 2014-06-17 · kolpriset world, hwwi, coal index usd...
TRANSCRIPT
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Konjunktur- och börsanalys 2014-05
Peter Malmqvist www.eqr.se
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Vilka länder betyder mest för
konjunturen?
Börs-/konjunkturanalys
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Andel av global import
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Eurozonens export
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Rysslands export
Rysslands viktigaste exportländer i % av total export
0
10
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30
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EUNed
erl
Tyskla
ndKina
Italie
n
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land
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hstan USA
Finlan
d
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Rysslands import
Rysslands import i % av total import
0,0%
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Brazil
India
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and
Denmark
Canad
a
Norway
Mexico
Austra
lia
South
Africa
Singap
ore
Hong K
ong
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BNP-tillväxt
Börs-/konjunkturanalys
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Är det hög- eller lågkonjunktur?
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Har USA hög- eller lågkonjunktur?
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Eurozonen har lågkonjunktur
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Storbritannien – hög-/lågkonjunktur?
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Tyskland – ganska svagt
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Frankrike – ganska svagt
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Italien – definitivt lågkonjunktur
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Spanien – definitivt lågkonjunktur
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Kina – hög/lågkonjunktur?
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Russia, Expenditure Approach, Gross Domestic Product, Total, Chg Y/Y, CPPY=100
Source: Reuters EcoWin
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Per
cent
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Ryssland – svag tillväxt
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Tillväxtindikatorn
Börs-/konjunkturanalys
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Detaljhandel och
industriproduktion
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Bilförsäljning
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Lastbilsmarknaden
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Bostadsmarknaden - Byggande - Prisutveckling
Börs-/konjunkturanalys
![Page 55: Konjunktur- och börsanalys 2014-05 - EQR · 2014-06-17 · Kolpriset World, HWWI, Coal Index USD EUR Source: Reuters EcoWin 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 I n d e x 25 50 75 100 125](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050418/5f8e02e301ba8054d5366526/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Globalt bostadsbyggande växer
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Bra fart i amerikanskt bostadsbyggande
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Europeiskt bostadsbyggande stiger
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Prisutvecklingen i Sverige - lysande!
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Prisutvecklingen i Sverige - lysande!
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Sysselsättning
Börs-/konjunkturanalys
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Sysselsättningen växer
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Sysselsättningen faller i Europa
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Sysselsättningen växer
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Inköpschefsindex
![Page 65: Konjunktur- och börsanalys 2014-05 - EQR · 2014-06-17 · Kolpriset World, HWWI, Coal Index USD EUR Source: Reuters EcoWin 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 I n d e x 25 50 75 100 125](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050418/5f8e02e301ba8054d5366526/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
Inköpschefernas index (globalt + Sverige)
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Inköpschefernas index (USA)
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Inköpschefernas index (Europa + Sverige)
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Börs-/konjunkturanalys
Stockholm 2008-03-10
Råvaror
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USA – fortsatt lågt gaspris
Oljepris (WTI) jämfört med gaspris
Natural Gas, Henry Hub, Spot, End of Period [rebase 1985 = 100.0] Oil, Light Crude Spot (WTI), Nymex [rebase 1985 = 100.0]
Source: Reuters EcoWin
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 140
100
200
300
400
500
600
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Kolpriset
World, HWWI, Coal Index
USD EURSource: Reuters EcoWin
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Inde
x
25
50
75
100
125
150
![Page 71: Konjunktur- och börsanalys 2014-05 - EQR · 2014-06-17 · Kolpriset World, HWWI, Coal Index USD EUR Source: Reuters EcoWin 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 I n d e x 25 50 75 100 125](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050418/5f8e02e301ba8054d5366526/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
Metallpriser
World, GSCI, Industrial Metals Index, Spot Return, Close, USD
Source: Reuters EcoWin
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Inde
x
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
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Global stålproduktion
Stålproduktion (årstaktsförändring)
ew:wld24200/1000000 [ar 12 months] ew:wld24200/1000000_1 [ar 12 months]
Source: Reuters EcoWin
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
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ent
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
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Börs-/konjunkturanalys
Stockholm 2008-03-10
Valutor
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Valutautveckling SEK – USD, EUR, GBP
USD, EUR, GBP mot SEK (bas 100 = 1993)
USD/SEK [rebase 1993 = 100.0] EUR/SEK [rebase 1993 = 100.0]
GBP/SEK [rebase 1993 = 100.0]
Source: Reuters EcoWin
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
70
80
90
100
110
120
130Positiv effekt på vinsterna
Negativ effekt
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Valuta – Emerging markets v.s. USD
Emerging markets v.s USD
Source: Reuters EcoWin
jan11
apr jul okt jan12
apr jul okt jan13
apr jul okt jan14apr
Inde
x
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
![Page 76: Konjunktur- och börsanalys 2014-05 - EQR · 2014-06-17 · Kolpriset World, HWWI, Coal Index USD EUR Source: Reuters EcoWin 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 I n d e x 25 50 75 100 125](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050418/5f8e02e301ba8054d5366526/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
Valuta – Emerging markets v.s. USD
Emerging markets/USD
Mexico [rebase 2011-01 = 100.0] China [rebase 2011-01 = 100.0] India [rebase 2011-01 = 100.0] Brazil [rebase 2011-01 = 100.0]
Turkey [rebase 2011-01 = 100.0] Russia [rebase 2011-01 = 100.0] South Africa [rebase 2011-01 = 100.0]
Source: Reuters EcoWin
jan11
apr jul okt jan12
apr jul okt jan13
apr jul okt jan14apr
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
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Börs-/konjunkturanalys
Inflation
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Inflation
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Inflationsanalys -Eurozonen
Euro Zone, Consumer Prices, All Items, Index, 2005=100
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Source: Reuters EcoWin
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
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cent
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0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
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Inflationsanalys -Eurozonen
Eurozonen - KPI (energirelaterade delindex)
Services [ar ma 12 months] Non-energy industrial goods [ar ma 12 months] Liquid fuels for personal transport equipment [ar ma 12 months] Electricity, gas, solid fuels and heat energy [ar ma 12 months]
All Items [ar ma 12 months]
Source: Reuters EcoWin
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
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cent
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-5
0
5
10
15
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Inflation
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Inflationsanalys – Emerging markets
Emerging markets - inflation
ar 12 monthsSource: Reuters EcoWin
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
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cent
4,5
5,0
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Inflationsanalys – Emerging markets
Emerging markets inflation
Brazil, China,
India, Mexico,
Russia, Turkey, [ar 12 obs]
Source: Reuters EcoWin
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cent
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Börs-/konjunkturanalys
Räntor
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Börs-/konjunkturanalys
Stockholm 2008-03-10
Börsbolagens vinster
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Börsbolagens vinster 1995-2014 (Q1)
Källa: EQR
Vinsterna har nu ökat tre kvartal i rad.
Vinsterna vänder uppRullande årsresultat före skatt mdkr
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1413110907050301999795
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Börsbolagens vinster 1995-2014 (Q1)
Förändring, % årstaktResultat före skatt
Källa: EQR
Tredje kvartalet med vinsttillväxt
Börsbolagen uppvisade vinsttillväxt för tredje kvartalet i rad.
-30-25-20-15-10
-505
10152025303540
14 Q113 Q112 Q111 Q1
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Börsbolagens vinster 1995-2014 (Q1)
Andel bolag över/under prognos, % 78%
58%
49%
60%
47%
Säm
re ä
n pr
ogno
s
Källa: SME
Utfall mot prognos
Bolagen har svårt att nå upp till analytikernas prognoser
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
14 Q113 Q413 Q313 Q213 Q1
Säm
re ä
n pr
ogno
s
Säm
re ä
n pr
ogno
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re ä
n pr
ogno
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re ä
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-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Stockholm - Estimated EPS growth, % (YoY)
Estimated EPS growth (median)
Prognostiserad vinsttillväxt
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USA – vinster och värdering
The U.S - S&P EPS x p/e, share prices
S&P est EPS 12 months forward (x12) United States, Standard & Poors, 500 S&P est EPS 12 months forward (x15)
Source: Reuters EcoWin
86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
200
400
800
1600
3200
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Värdering
Börs- /konjunkturutsikter på 6-12 månader
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Värdering
0,70
0,80
0,90
1,00
1,10
1,20
1,30
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Stockholmsbörsen - Relativ p/e (1,0 = balans)
Relativ p/e (median)
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Värdering
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&#%#$
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&#%&$
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!"#$%&#'()*)+,-.)/012340567016890)
$-./012.$ $345$
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Värdering
The U.S - S&P p/e-ratio (estimated)
1/(inflation+3.5%) S&P p/e-ratioSource: Reuters EcoWin
86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
5
10
15
20
25
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Värdering
UK P/E and inverted consumer prices
1/(((gbr11802/lag(gbr11802, 12))-1)+0.05) United Kingdom, FTSE, 100, Index, P/E Ratio, End of Period
Source: Reuters EcoWin
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Rat
io
5
10
15
20
25
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Värdering
Germany P/E and inverted consumer prices
1/(((deu11801/lag(deu11801, 12))-1)+0.055) Germany, Deutsche Boerse, DAX 30, Index, P/E Ratio, EUR
Source: Reuters EcoWin
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Rat
io
5
10
15
20
25
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Värdering
France P/E and inverted consumer prices
1/(((fra11990/lag(fra11990, 12))-1)+0.06) France, Paris SE, CAC 40 Index, P/E Ratio
Source: Reuters EcoWin
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Rat
io
5,0
7,5
10,0
12,5
15,0
17,5
20,0
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Värdering
Spain P/E and inverted consumer prices
1/(((esp11800/lag(esp11800, 12))-1)+0.05) Spain, IBEX, 35 Index, P/E Ratio, EUR
Source: Reuters EcoWin
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Inde
x
5,0
7,5
10,0
12,5
15,0
17,5
20,0
22,5
25,0
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Stockholm 2008-03-10
Teknisk analys
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Tekniskt
OMX-index - Dagshögsta/dagslägsta, i %
ma 20 ma 200Source: Reuters EcoWin
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140
1
2
3
4 ma 200 0,9566572581ma 20 1,001258572
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Tekniskt
USA S&P 500 Index, high % low
ma 200 ma 20Source: Reuters EcoWin
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Inde
x
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
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Tekniskt
AFGX - momentum
mean(ew:swe15500, 1)/mean(swe15500, 200) mean(ew:swe15500, 200)/mean(swe15500, 800)
Source: Reuters EcoWin
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
0,7
0,8
0,9
1,0
1,1
1,2
1,3
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Tekniskt
AFGX, Bond 10 y (index, y o y)
Handelsbanken Markets, All Government Bond, Index >10 years [ar 261 obs] SIX, Index (SIXRX), Close [ar 261 obs]
Source: Reuters EcoWin
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Per
cent
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30P
erce
nt
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
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Tekniskt
AFGX relative Bonds 10 y
Source: Reuters EcoWin
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1,0
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
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Tekniskt
Stabila bolag
Source: Reuters EcoWin
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Inde
x
100
140
180
220
260
300
340
380
420
460
500ASSA ABLOY, CASTELLUM, GETINGE, HENNES & MAURITZ, HUFVUDSTADEN, INTRUM JUSTITIA, MEDA, SVENSKA CELLULOSA, SWEDISH MATCH, TELIA SONERA
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Tekniskt
Konjunkturkänsliga bolag
Source: Reuters EcoWin
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Inde
x
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Volvo, Sandvik, SSAB, Boliden, JM, MTG, NCC, Scania, Peab, Atlas Copco
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Tekniskt Carnegie rel AFGX
(mean(ew:swe15970, 1)/mean(swe15970, 50))/(mean(ew:swe15510, 1)/mean(swe15510, 50)) (mean(ew:swe15970, 200)/mean(swe15970, 800))/(mean(ew:swe15500, 200)/mean(swe15500, 800)) (mean(ew:swe15970, 3)/mean(swe15970, 200))/(mean(ew:swe15510,3)/mean(swe15510, 200))
Source: Reuters EcoWin
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Low
M
omen
tum
H
igh
0,90
0,95
1,00
1,05
1,10
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Tekniskt
AFGX rel Etop Euro (i lokal val), EUR rel SEK
(mean(ew:swe19001/emu19001, 3)/mean(swe19001/emu19001, 200)) (mean(ew:swe15500, 3)/mean(swe15500, 200))/(mean(ew:emu15300, 3)/mean(emu15300, 200))
Source: Reuters EcoWin
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Low
M
omen
tum
H
igh
0,85
0,90
0,95
1,00
1,05
1,10
1,15 Strong AFGX, Strong EUR
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Tekniskt
AFGX rel S&P 500 (i lokal valuta), USD rel SEK
(mean(ew:swe19001, 3)/mean(swe19001, 200)) (mean(ew:swe15500, 3)/mean(swe15500, 200))/(mean(ew:usa15510, 3)/mean(usa15510, 200))
Source: Reuters EcoWin
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Low
M
omen
tum
H
igh
0,80
0,85
0,90
0,95
1,00
1,05
1,10
1,15
1,20Strong AFGX Strong SEK
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Tekniskt
Eurotop Euroland rel S&P 500, USD rel Euro
(mean(ew:xee19001, 3)/mean(xee19001, 200)) (mean(ew:emu15300, 3)/mean(emu15300, 200))/(mean(ew:usa15510, 3)/mean(usa15510, 200))
Source: Reuters EcoWin
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Low
M
omen
tum
H
igh
0,85
0,90
0,95
1,00
1,05
1,10
1,15Strong ETOP Strong USD
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Tekniskt
Emerging markets (FTSE) rel S&P 500
200 dagar 800 dagarSource: Reuters EcoWin
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Low
M
omen
tum
H
igh
0,70
0,75
0,80
0,85
0,90
0,95
1,00
1,05
1,10
1,15
1,20
1,25
1,30
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Börs- /konjunkturutsikter på 6-12 månader
Stockholm 2008-03-10
Aktiefonder och risk
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Aktiesparande – ökat samband mellan kursutveckling och fondinsättningar
Aktieindex och flödet i aktiefonder
Stockholm (AFGX), Price Return [ar 12 months] Flow into equity funds (annualized) [ma 12]
Source: Reuters EcoWin
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Per
cent
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100S
EK
(billi
ons)
-5,0
-2,5
0,0
2,5
5,0
7,5
10,0
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Aktiesparande – ökat samband mellan kursutveckling och fondinsättningar
Fondinsättningar/-uttag (SEK Mdr)
Swedish Mutual Fund Association, New Savings, Equity Funds, Balance Affärsvärlden, General Index (AFGX), Price Return, Close [c.o.p 1 month]
Source: Reuters EcoWin
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Per
cent
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20S
EK
(billi
ons)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40