knowledge society foresight

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PRESTInstitute of Innovation Research

Presentation to ESDIS October 2004

EUFORIA - European Knowledge Society Foresight

October 2004 Ian Miles, Manchester University, UK –

[email protected]

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Much documentation available:

http://

les.man.ac.uk/PREST/ euforia/reports.htm

www.eurofound.ie/ publications/General.htm

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• EUFORIA applied Foresight tools to examine prospects for the EKS

• A developmental project:– examining the potential of such tools

(described in the Handbook of Knowledge Society Foresight) for usefully addressing the topic

– in terms of EuroFound concerns – LC, WC, IR and Lisbon Objectives

– taking three country pilot studies

• Generating much content

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Features of the European Knowledge Society

• INDICATORS: considerable development in terms of many aspects of KS - but most dynamic? Huge disparities across EU.

• DELPHI: broad features of EKS - not all reached by 2015; reinforce most goals considered, but problems in Work-Life Balance, etc.

• WORKSHOPS: considerable variety in paths across EU; common and specific issues; multiple scenarios; need for social innovation.

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EKS - concepts in need of clarification

• Knowledge Society as more than Knowledge-based Economy and Information Society

• “The” KS can imply too much uniformity, and an end-point rather than an evolving system

• Fundamental and contingent features• KS as a description/expectation, or as a

goal/orientation.

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Knowledge Society• Information Society and Service Economy• Innovation and Social Learning• in the context of Globalisation and

Sociocultural Change

Livin

g

Conditions

Work

ing

Conditions

Indust

rial

Relat

ions

Oth

er

Dimen

sions:

govern

ance

, etc

.

All of these are influenced in numerous ways by KBE developments- and can substantially influence the pace and style of development

Common Features, but pace and style of

development varies considerably. EU

enlargement as major “local” context.

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Knowledge Society• Information Society and Service Economy• Innovation and Social Learning• in the context of Globalisation and


Livin

g

Conditions

Work

ing

Conditions

Indust

rial

Relat

ions

Oth

er

Dimen

sions:

govern

ance

, etc

.




• These features are influenced by KS developments

• They also form some of the local circumstances and characteristics that

affect what can be done, and the capabilities that help to allow particular paths of KS development to be taken.

more or less knowledgeable and responsible citizens, entrepreneurs, workers; flexible institutions, openness to innovation, etc.

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• Information Society and Service Economy• Innovation and Social Learning• in the context of Globalisation and





KSF – the EUFORIA approach

Livin

g

Conditions

Work

ing

Conditions

Indust

rial

Relat

ions

Indicators,Anticipated

Trends

Anticipated Influences National Circumstances and Scenarios

•divides

•rigidities

•capabilities

•stresses

•...

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Knowledge Society Capabilities

• Critical issue may well be how well societies are able to mobilise themselves (capabilities) in terms of creating and/or deploying knowledge in relevant circumstances

• This is a matter of “social and human capital” – knowing how and who, having cognitive and practical skills, access to relevant networks, knowledge of societal needs, etc.

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Some Results from EUFORIA

Though a small-scale developmental study, some interesting and probably replicable results:

– Achievement of some Lisbon objectives appears problematic, though pace of development rapid

– Challenges in terms of LC, WC, IR and associated institutional adjustments

– Different national models, alternative futures for the KS

– Much agreement on some emerging features - but ambiguity, need for analysis and debate

– Foresight-type methods as a KS tool.

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Elements of EUFORIA

• (Indicators)

• Cross National Workshop

• Online Delphi Study

• National Workshops

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Cross National Workshop

• Not ideal logistically but demonstrated applicability of (innovative) tools

• Used STEEPV and other approaches for groups to identify “drivers” and LC. WC, IR factors influenced

• Qualitatively - “driver-impact” distinction and relationship problematic; Quantitatively - examined interplay between two lists of factors through CIA.

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CIA – Aspects of KS with high influence

Box 4: Chart of the KS Drivers influences over the LC, WC and IR Impacts

D10: Ageing

D2:low-skill

services

D7: “Glocal-isation”

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CIA - Aspects of LC, WC and IR that are strongly influenced

Box 5: Chart of LC, WC and IR trend impacts and their reinforcing and inhibiting KSdrivers

I9: Trade unions

I6:surve-illance

I7: “Multi-location work

Strong influencesWork

-life

balance

new form

s of c

are

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Delphi Study

• Cross-national, multi-lingual, online

• Challenging management task (not least translation)

• Demonstrates need for strong local effort in identifying, recruiting and mobilising expertise

• Experimental study, small samples, but striking results.

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Features

• Online survey• Delphi conventions• EKSF by 2015• Multilingual• Set of 32 common cross-national

statements, set of country-specific questions, developed collaboratively

• Impacts on LC, WC, IR

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Delphi Topic Development• Topic statements proposed by national

workshops in 3 countries• ~8 internal meetings (preparation)• ~3 sets of feedback with translators• ~4 weeks for web design and launching

Online delphi design and

management: Rafael

Popper, Calibrium

Corporation

EU, National and sponsor

topics: Atlantis, Empirica,

EFL, FFRC

Questionnaire design, topic selection and reconciliation : PREST and

partners

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32 Statements in 6 groups

• Governance and Mobility Topics• Health and Privacy Topics• Industrial Relations Topics• Living Conditions Topics• Sustainability and Development Topics• Working Conditions Topics

plus 5 country-specific questions

all linked to EFL concerns and Lisbon Objectives

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Statements were rated in terms of:

occurrence by 2015 - over/underestimate, about right, unsure

Impacts on EU/Lisbon/EFL goals 1. Social cohesion

2. Social exclusion or divides

3. Sustainability/environmental quality

4. Employer-employee relations

5. Economic growth/wealth creation

6. Entrepreneurship and innovativeness

7. Employee exercise of autonomy & responsibility at work

8. Work-life balance

9. Job creation

(increase, decrease,

etc.)

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Respondents

German Responsesby Categories

Research Sector

Public Sector

Private Sector

NGO Sector

Other Sector

German ResponsesOne-GO

Research SectorFullPublic Sector Full

Private Sector Full

NGO Sector Full

Other Sector Full

Greek Responsesby Categories

Research Sector

Public Sector

Private Sector

NGO Sector

Other Sector

Greek ResponsesOne-GO


Private Sector Full

NGO Sector Full

Other Sector Full

Finnish Responsesby Categories

Research Sector

Public Sector

Private Sector

NGO Sector

Other Sector

Finnish ResponsesOne-GO


Private Sector Full

NGO Sector Full

Other Sector Full

Germany c20 respondents, Greece Finland >50 respondents, plus others (mainly

researchers) 185

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Example: Statement 1- mixed views on likelihood?

“The balance between immigration and emigration in the

EU15 causes the percentage of non-

EU15 immigrant workers to more than

double by 2015.”

Stratement 1

0

25

50

75

Underestimatesthe situation in

2015

Is about right for2015

Overestimatesthe situation in

2015

Developmentsw ill not follow

this path

I don't know /too uncertain

Impact of Statement 1 over Living Conditions, Industrial Relations and Working Conditions

0

25

50

75

100

125

Social cohesion Social exclusionor divides

Sustainability /environmental

quality

Employer-employeerelations

Economicgrowth /wealth

creation

Entrepreneurship&

innovativeness

Employeeautonomy &responsibility

Work-lifebalance

J ob creation

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Example: Statement 2 (consensus)

“Widespread use of ICT in e-governance enhances

transparency in the procedures concerning the

relationship between the

citizen and the state in my country”

Stratement 2

0

25

50

75

Underestimatesthe situation in

2015

Is about right for2015

Overestimatesthe situation in

2015

Developmentsw ill not follow

this path

I don't know /too uncertain

Impact of Statement 2 over Living Conditions, Industrial Relations and Working Conditions

0

25

50

75

100

125

Social cohesion Social exclusionor divides

Sustainability /environmental

quality

Employer-employeerelations

Economicgrowth /wealth

creation

Entrepreneurship&

innovativeness

Employeeautonomy &responsibility

Work-lifebalance

J ob creation

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EKSF: 11 most likely features from delphi Statements

2 Governance & mobility, Widespread use of ICT in e-governance enhances transparency in the procedures concerning the relationship between the citizen and the state in my country.

6 Governance & mobility, EU policies are used to promote labour market mobility, despite resistance from individuals, trade unions and employer organisations.

9 Health & privacy, Widespread use of telemedicine and on-line health monitoring systems increases the ability of people with serious chronic and age related diseases to maintain their independence.

12 Industrial relations, New forms of networked business organisation, that were unknown or very rare at the turn of the century, will now account for a substantial level of economic activity in my country.

13 Industrial relations, A major increase occurs in my country in the use of electronic networks for remote supervision of new kinds of work (tele-working, mobile working), and new atypical forms of work.

18 Living conditions, Harmonisation of educational standards (including certification) across the EU increases trust and transparency in my country’s educational system.

20 Living conditions, Life-long learning becomes widespread with a majority of workers undertaking more than one period of substantial retraining during their working life.

21 Living conditions, Despite social and employment policy interventions, for most workers their work-life balance deteriorates causing rising family stress and conflict.

24 Sustainability & development, Europe has developed into a leading force in the area of sustainable development and the use of environmental technologies.

27 Working conditions, Social and policy changes in my country encourage female entry into professional and technical jobs that are currently male-dominated, leading to substantial decreases in gender-related pay inequalities.

30 Working conditions, Widespread abandonment of conventional notions of retirement in my country enable the elderly to continue working if they wish to.

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= agreement that the statement will increase or improve the factor by year 2015;= agreement that the statement will decrease or deteriorate the factor by year 2015; NE=agreement that the statements will have no effect over the factor by year 2015; ??= great uncertainty about the impact of the statement on the specific factor

Living Conditions Industrial Relations Working Conditions

So

cial C

oh

esio

n

So

cial e

xclusio

n o

r divid

es

Su

stain

ab

ility / en

viron

me

nta

l qu

ality

Em

plo

yer-e

mp

loye

e re

latio

ns

Eco

no

mic g

row

th / w

ea

lth cre

atio

n

En

trep

ren

eu

rship

an

d in

no

vative

ne

ss

Em

plo

yee

au

ton

om

y an

d re

spo

nsib

ility

Wo

rk-life b

ala

nce

Job

crea

tion

02 ?? NE ? ?? ??

06 ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ??

09 ?? NE? NE NE NE?

12 ?? ?? ?? ??

13 ?? ?? ?? ??

18 ? ? ? NE? NE

20 ?? ? ??

21 NE ? ?? ?? NE?

24 ? NE? NE? NE?

27 NE ? ?? ?

30 ?? NE ?? ? NE? ?? ??

Impacts of 11 statements

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7 “Overstatements” – though these are positive influences

•3 Governance & mobility Labour relations organisations (e.g. trade union and other representative bodies) will have a major influence on government and business in shaping the knowledge society in my country.

•15 Industrial relations Trade unions have become more important in my country, responding to new work arrangements, offering networked membership, new types of social security and other services to their members.

•16 Industrial relations Large organisations in my country have widely introduced new, innovative and systematic models for employee participation in decision-making relating to working practices and capital investment.

•17 Living conditions A practical emphasis on ethics, justice and equity increases in working life, and strongly influences the development of business and conduct of professions in my country.

•22 Sustainability & development The widespread use of e-commerce removes obstacles to accessing products, services and employment in the peripheral regions in my country, increasing their competitiveness and stemming depopulation.

•26 Sustainability & development EU enlargement shifts economic resources towards accession and possible pre-accession countries, diminishing disposable income in the EU15 and creating the conditions for persistent unemployment of at least 10% across the EU15.

•31 Working conditions New organisational procedures and systems that turn firms and other organisations into "learning organisations" have been widely adopted, and not just by a small vanguard, in my country.

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Unique Visions by Country

Greece n=524 Governance and Mobility New technologies and knowledge

management methods greatly strengthen the ability of governments and organisations to engage in widespread social control in my country.

14 Industrial Relations A majority of the workplaces in my country, in which collective agreements were in place at the turn of the century, are covered by individually agreed employment contracts.

Germany n=1930 Working Conditions Widespread abandonment of conventional

notions of retirement in my country enable the elderly to continue working if they wish to.

Finland n=521 Governance and Mobility The balance between immigration and

emigration in the EU15 causes the percentage of non-EU15 immigrant workers to more than double by 2015.

5 Governance and Mobility Regulatory authorities take steps to ensure that users are confident that world-wide communication networks are secure against practically all conceivable emergencies.

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Thus can examine:

• Which topics are seen as likely to develop, or are over- or under-estimated in the statements.

• Which ones are most contentious – differences within or across countries

• Which features of LC, WC and IR are most influenced, in which directions (and again, how far consensus on this)

• Areas where action may be required – e.g. the 7 overestimated topics?

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Some Conclusions• Cross-national, multilingual online delphi

more difficult to manage than anticipated different management approaches/division of labour required in future if similar techniques to be applied

• Technique yields much rich and informative material; scope for a great deal of further analysis (e.g. national differences, association of topics)

• Promising method(s) for this topic area – will become increasingly viable (unless killed by spam

etc.) - worth developing more extensively• Education and training helpful!

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Features of EKS 1

• Governance & mobility Widespread use of ICT in e-governance enhances transparency in the procedures concerning the relationship between the citizen and the state in my country.

• Governance & mobility EU policies are used to promote labour market mobility, despite resistance from individuals, trade unions and employer organisations.

• Health & privacy Widespread use of telemedicine and on-line health monitoring systems increases the ability of people with serious chronic and age related diseases to maintain their independence.

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Features of EKS 2

• Industrial relations New forms of networked business organisation, that were unknown or very rare at the turn of the century, will now account for a substantial level of economic activity in my country.

• Industrial relations A major increase occurs in my country in the use of electronic networks for remote supervision of new kinds of work (tele-working, mobile working), and new atypical forms of work.

• Living conditions Harmonisation of educational standards (including certification) across the EU increases trust and transparency in my country’s educational system.

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Features of EKS 3

• Living conditions Life-long learning becomes widespread with a majority of workers undertaking more than one period of substantial retraining during their working life.

• Living conditions Despite social and employment policy interventions, most workers’ work-life balance deteriorates causing rising family stress and conflict.

• Sustainability & development Europe has developed into a leading force in the area of sustainable development and the use of environmental technologies.

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Features of EKS 4

• Working conditions Social and policy changes in my country encourage female entry into professional and technical jobs that are currently male-dominated, leading to substantial decreases in gender-related pay inequalities.

• Working conditions Widespread abandonment of conventional notions of retirement in my country enable the elderly to continue working if they wish to.

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Influences on Eurofound concerns

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Statements where most participants did not foresee a strong level of development - but agreed that they would have had positive

impact on LC, WC, IR factors • Emphasis on ethics and equity• Learning organisations• More participation of employees in decision

making processes• E-commerce as a regional development tool• Better labour unions• Trade unions hand-by-hand with government

and businesses• Redirection of resources towards candidate

countries ???

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• Lack of vision (visionary leadership), institutional and labour market rigidities, underdeveloped knowledge transfer, “dependency culture” - but dissatisfaction with where things going and interest in change

• Ageing, cultural heterogeneity• Distinctive national features need more teasing

out - especially in terms of where they present opportunities as well as just barriers

National Commonalities and Differences

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Issues arising• Points to a number of areas where research

and action could be important - e.g. social capital and KS capabilities, new styles of industrial relations, institutional and cultural rigidities, and work-life balance issues.

• Potential for extension of study – and learning from its experience – to cover these issues more thoroughly.

• Development of methods - opportunities, linking to established Foresight.

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Developmental Project

• Methods are applicable

• Generate interesting and meaningful results - LLL, WLB, economic benefits more clear than social ones (?)

• Possibly useful adjunct to existing inputs to policymaking and debate

• Technically complex but rich results - plenty of further analysis possible!

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End of Presentation

knowledge society foresight

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