kingdom of thailand bond market - pdmo bond market booklet q3 fy2… · kingdom of thailand bond...
TRANSCRIPT
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Kingdom of Thailand Bond Market Financing Thailand’s Future & Connecting ASEAN
Highlights MOF awards 2013 & ILB Achievements
Savings Bond & Money Expo 2014
Government Bond Auction Schedule Q3/FY2014
T-Bill Issuance Program
Progress Update Greenshoe Option: MOF Outright PDs Privilege in FY2015
Bond Switching & Consolidation Work Plan
GGLB Rollover Plan Towards ASEAN “Preferred Destination”
Basic & Essentials • Public Debt Outstanding and Its Composition
• Bond Market Capitalization and Its Composition
• Total GOVT Bond Supply Issuing in FY2014
• Government Bond Auction Result in First Half of FY2014
• Non-Resident Holding in Domestic Bond
B. Progress Update
• MOF Awards 2013 & ILB Achievements
• Savings Bond & Money Expo 2014
• Government Bond Auction Schedule Q3/FY2014
• T-Bill Issuance Program
Domestic Bond Market Development
This booklet is produced and printed in-house by Bond Market Development Bureau Public Debt Management Office , Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
This booklet can be downloaded at www.pdmo.go.th e-book
A. Highlights
C. Basic & Essentials
• Greenshoe Option : MOF Outright PDs Privilege in FY2015
• Bond Switching & Consolidation Work Plan
• GGLB Rollover Plan
• Towards ASEAN “Preferred Destination”
• Public Debt Outstanding and Its Composition (As of Jan 2014) = 5,466,198 THB Mil. (45.75% of GDP)
• Bond Market Capitalization and Its Composition (As of Mar 2014) = 9,202,573 THB Mil.
(76% of GDP)
• Total GOVT Bond Supply Issuing in FY2014
• GOVT Bond Auction Result in First Half of FY2014
• Non-Resident Holding in Domestic Bond
NR Holding in THB Bond (As of Mar 2014) = 679,137 THB Mil. (GOVT Bond : 559,677 THB Mil., BOT Bond 118,713 THB Mil., Corp Bond : 747 THB Mil.)
Net Change in NR Holding (Jan – Mar 2014) = -28,238 THB Mil.
(GOVT Bond : Net Sell -36,164 THB Mil., BOT Bond : Net Buy +7,926 THB Mil.)
1
12
18
1
• MOF Awards 2013 & ILB Achievements
• Savings Bond & Money Expo 2014
• Government Bond Auction Schedule Q3/FY2014
• T-Bill Issuance Program
A: Highlights
M O F A w a r d s 2 0 1 3 Presented at Best Bond Awards 2013 on April 1, 2014
Organized by Thai Bond Market Association
Winner : Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited
Runner Ups : Kasikorn Bank Public Company Limited
: Krung Thai Bank Limited
*Highest percentage share of allocation of all GOVT Bonds issued in FY2013 in the primary market. **Highest percentage share of trading of all GOVT Bonds issued in FY2013 in the secondary market .
There are approximately 25-30 participants in the market.
Winner : Deutsche Bank AG., Bangkok Branch
Runner Ups : Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited
: Citibank N.A.
(In alphabetical order)
(In alphabetical order)
(In descending order)
(In descending order)
2
M O F A w a r d s 2 0 1 3 Presented at Best Bond Awards 2013 on April 1, 2014
Organized by Thai Bond Market Association
Winners : Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited
: The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited
*** Highest scores voted by PDMO’s Executives
BBL
HSBC
DBBK
(Tied)
Deutsche Bank AG., Bangkok Branch
The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited
Bangkok Bank PCL.
3
L o o k i n g B a c k @ I L B Innovation for sophisticated investors
Instrument to hedge against Asian Inflation First and only ILB in ASEAN since 2011
Achievement awards
Deal of the Year 2013 From Best Bond Awards 2013 (Thai Bond Market Association) (L) Dr. Prasarn Trairatvorakul, Governor, Bank of Thailand (R) Ms. Chularat Suteethorn, Director General Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance 1 April, 2014
- Best Thailand Deal 2011 - Best Local Currency Bond 2011
From Finance Asia Achievement Awards 2011 Mr. Suwit Rojanavanich, Bond Market Advisor, PDMO, MOF
2 February, 2012 (Hong Kong)
• Best Sovereign Bond Deal of the Year 2013 in Southeast Asia
• Best Thailand Deal 2011 • Best Local Currency Bond 2011
Deal of the Year 2011
• Best Thailand Deal of the Year 2011 • Best Sovereign Bond of the Year 2011
Thailand Capital Market Deal of the Year 2011
Outstanding Issuer of the Year 2011
The Most Impressive Local Currency Bond 2011
- Deal of the Year 2011 - Most Creative Issue 2011 From Best Bond Awards 2011 (Thai Bond Market Association) (L) Dr. Prasarn Trairatvorakul, Governor, Bank of Thailand (R) Dr. Pimpen Ladpli, Acting Executive Director, Bond Market Development Bureau 10 May, 2012 (Bangkok)
Best Sovereign Bond Deal of the Year 2013 in Southeast Asia At The 7th Annual Alpha Southeast Asia Deal and Solution Awards 2013
(R) Mr. Nattakarn Boonsri Director, Government Bond Market Development Division
23 January, 2014 (Kuala Lumpur)
• Deal of the Year 2011 • Most Creative Issue 2011 • Deal of the Year 2013
4
L o o k i n g F o r w a r d Building up ILB283A to 100,000 MB
Enforcing market making responsibility as PDs’ duties Possible issuance of 30yr ILB to extend ILB Yield Curve Including in global indices (1.6% weight in Barclays EMGILB
Ex-Argentina Ex-Columbia Constrained Index, as of April 2014)
100,872MB*
64,160MB*
TTM
5,000MB
5,000MB
5,000MB
7 14
ILB217A ILB283A
To be issued by end of FY 2014
To be issued in FY 2015
To be launched in FY 2015-16
Source : Bank of Thailand
Thailand’s Inflation during the past 3 decades “Moderate & stable” (headline = 3.5% / core = 2.8%) (1985-2014 avg.)
3%
1.5%
Past 10 year avg.
30
* Outstanding at the end of Q2/FY14
5
MONEY EXPO 2014 “CONNECTING LIFE”
IMPACT CHALLENGER HALL 2 – 3 8th – 11th May 2014
Booth # M2
SAFE HAVEN
SAVINGS BOND
The Launch of
SAVINGS BOND* (SB175A)
3-year tenor
MONEY EXPO 2014 Impact Challenger Hall 2 – 3
8th – 11th May 2014 Public Debt Management Office Booth [M2]
6
* Eligible for Individuals and Non-Profit Institutions such as foundations, Thai Red Cross Society, and the National Council on Social Welfare of Thailand
7
2545 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2017
3. SB148A
5. SB149A
2. SBST147A
1. SB145A
4. SB148B
6. SB149B
7. SB149B
9. SBST166A
8. SB15NA
11. SB189A
43,303 MB
10,821 MB
80,000 MB
334 MB
78 MB
459 MB
2,738 MB
82,230 MB
3,930 MB
31,577 MB
FY2014 Expiration of SB 137,733 THB Mil. (53%)
FY2016 Expiration of 3 SB 90,160 THB Mil. (35%) FY2018 Expiration of 1 SB 31,577 THB Mil. (12%)
2561
-0-
Today
Zero
A
B
C
ABC
No more Saving Bond Issued … No more Saving Bond Remaining
The last serieswill expire in FY 2018
Savings Bond : The Safe Haven for Retail(Current Outstanding : 259,470 THB Mil. , 11 Series)
2014 2016 2018
Bond Tenors
10. SB16DA 4,000 MB
2555-56 180,xxx 38,xxx
Retail Investor holding in Government Bond % Share of Government Bond
Saving Bond Outstanding
-0-
Structure Shift… between Non-Resident and Retail Investor Holding in GOVT BOND
16%
4%
THB Mil.
Non-Resident holding in Government Bond % Share of Government Bond
Today
29%
4%Savings Bond for FIDF
Savings Bond for Deficit
8%
% Share of Government Bond
1999 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Between FY 2002-2011
Average Savings Bond Outstanding is equivalent to 400,xxx THB Mil.
2014 15 16 17
Outstanding size
137,733MB(End of Mar 2014)
90,160MB
31,577MB
-0-25,000MB
366,490MB
424,311MB381,796MB
255,675MB
483,839MB
7%
v v
1%vv
8
To be Updated
8
Gove
rnm
ent B
ond
Auct
ion
Sche
dule
for Q
3/FY
2014
:
LB1
96A
=
(Re-
open
)2.
LB
=
(R
e-op
en
ILB2
83A
=
(R
e-op
en
LB2
96A
=
(R
e-op
en
L
BA37
DA =
(Re-
open
LB4
46A
=
(R
e-op
en
L
B616
A =
(Re-
open
Auct
ion
Date
LB19
6A5-
yrLB
236A
10-y
rILB
283A
15-y
rLB
296A
15-y
rLB
A37D
A25
-yr
LB44
6A30
-yr
LB61
6A50
-yr
Tota
l
2-Ap
r-201
4-
9-Ap
r-201
420
,000
5,000
25,0
00
16-A
pr-2
014
-
23-A
pr-2
014
-
29-A
pr-2
014
10,00
09,0
0019
,000
7-Ma
y-20
14-
14-M
ay-2
014
15,00
015
,000
21-M
ay-2
014
-
28-M
ay-2
014
9,000
9,00
0
4-Ju
n-20
1416
,000
16,0
00
11-Ju
n-20
1420
,000
20,0
00
18-Ju
n-20
14-
25-Ju
n-20
149,0
009,
000
Tota
l40
,000
16,0
005,
000
10,0
0015
,000
9,00
018
,000
113,
000
Coup
on3.8
75%
3.625
%1.2
5%4.8
75%
4.26%
4.675
%4.8
5%
Matu
rity
Date
13-Ju
n-20
1916
-Jun-
2023
12-M
ar-2
028
22-Ju
n-20
2912
-Dec
-203
729
-Jun-
2044
17-Ju
n-20
61
Excl
usi
vity
MO
F O
utr
igh
t P
D O
NLY
Infl
atio
n-L
inke
d B
on
dA
mo
rtiz
ed
Bo
nd
LB1
96
AIL
B2
83
ALB
A3
7D
A
Exclusivity
9
ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LI NKED BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIP LINE COMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC D EBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED BOND PIONEER PD DF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMITMENT B OND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OF FICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BE NCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMITMENT BOND MARKETDEVELOPM ENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATIO N-LINKED BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DI SCIPLINE COMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBI LC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OF FICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BE NCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOP MENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLAT ION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PU BILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED BOND PIONE ER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINET COMMMITM ENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMEN T OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATIO N BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVE LOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION IN FLATION-LINKED-BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FI SCAL DISCIPLINE COMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMEN TS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED BOND P IONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMM ITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGE MENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDI CATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATIO N INFLATION-LINKED BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BON D FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVE MENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED-BO ND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND ACHIEVEMENTS PUBIL C DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BENCHMARK BOND FISCAL DISCIPLINE COMMITMENT BOND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS PUBILC DEBT MANAGEMENT OF FICE INNOVATION INFLATION-LINKED BOND PIONEER PDDF CGIF DEDICATION BE 10
14 11
27
,13
5
25
,00
0
25
,00
0
25
,00
0
14
,00
6
25
,00
0
25
,00
0
25
,00
0
25
,00
0
25
,00
0
24
,49
1
25
,00
0
19
,27
5
20
,00
0 2
0,0
00
20
,00
0
20
,00
0
15
,00
0
15
,00
0
15
,00
0
15
,00
0
15
,00
0
15
,00
0
15
,00
0
15
,00
0
15
,00
0
15
,00
0
15
,00
0
15
,00
0
15
,00
0
20
,00
0
20
,00
0
20
,00
0
20
,00
0
20
,00
0
20
,00
0
1 M
20
,00
0
20
,00
0
20
,00
0
1.20
1.45
1.031.08
0.56
1.26
1.01
1.63
1.18
2.56
0.98
1.32
0.77
1.021.07
1.53
2.45
2.75
BCR 4.49
1.73
1.91 1.931.79
1.58
2.42
1.27
2.13
2.60
2.60
1.15
-3.9
-4.6-4.2-4.4
-0.5
-2.9
-1.8
-3.0-3.5
-2.9
-1.3
-2.3
-0.8-0.5
1.30.4
-2.2
-3.3
-4.9
-3.7
-2.4
0.6
-1.0
-2.0
-3.9
-2.9-2.5
-5.2
-4.6
-2.5
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
-50,000
-25,000
-
25,000
50,000
75,000
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Sep 13 Oct 13 Nov 13 Dec 14 Jan 14 Feb 14 Mar 14 Apr 14 May 14 Jun 14
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
T-Bill Supply
bpsMillion Baht
T-1=0
Q3/FY143
M
20
,00
0
To Meet : Short Term Demand
To Manage : Funding Risk
Wednesday7 May 2014
1M (32 Days) : 20,000 MB3M (95 Days) : 20,000 MB
AllocatedParticipated
Basis Point
FY 2014
12
B: Progress Update
• Greenshoe Option: MOF Outright PDs Privilege in FY2015
• Bond Switching & Consolidation Work Plan
• GGLB Rollover Plan
• Towards ASEAN “Preferred Destination”
Term and Condition:
Exercising at the AAY (Average Accepted Yield) Price
Exercising within 1-2 days next to the auction date (T+1 to T+2)
$$$
Greenshoe Option
Right to buy indicated LB in Additional of 10-20%
of the allocated amount
Upgrade MOF Outright PD Privilege • Maintain Exclusivity in 5-yr• Option Greenshoe Option
Exclusivity in 5-yr tenor of Government Benchmark Bond
MOF Preferred Counterparty Quarterly dialogue with MOF of plan Bond Auction Schedule
Current Pr ivi lege FY 2013-2014
BOT outright counterparty Benefit of Incentive program from SET
Greenshoe Option 5 years10 years
“Potential” Privilege to be launched in FY2015
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Note: Under the normal market condition, PDs are expected to exercise Greenshoe option when Market Yield < AAY
13
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
GS 5 Yrs. GS 10 Yrs. Exclu. 10 Yrs. GS 15 Yrs. Exclu. 15 Yrs. GS 7 Yrs. GS 3 Yrs. GS 30 Yrs. Exclu. ILB Exclu. 3 Yrs. GS ILB
1. What is the most preferable Additional Privileges? Please Arrange 1-5 in Space By 1 = Most Prefer 2 = More Prefer
3 = Prefer 4 = Less Prefer
5 = Least Prefer
. .Exclusivity in 10 yr. Benchmark Bond
. .Exclusivity in other Tenor of Benchmark Bond please specific yr. . .Greenshoe Option in 5 yr. Benchmark Bond . .Greenshoe Option 10 yr. Benchmark Bond . .Greenshoe Option in other Tenor of Benchmark Bond please specific yr.
2. Other Privileges
Additional MOF Outright PD Privileges Survey
7 4 22
65
Survey Results for Upgrade MOF Outright PD Privilege (13/13PDs)
Results from All 13 MOF Outright PDs Between 27 Jan 2014 - 13 Feb 2014
1
3
7
2 Most Prefer
Least Prefer
- Greenshoe - Greenshoe
Greenshoe5 Yrs
Greenshoe10 Yrs
Exclusivity10 Yrs
7PDs 11PDs4PDs
2PDs
1st Rank
14
Bond Switching and Bond Consolidation Timeline
Today
Week 4 : Kick-off
• Gathering the Problem and Obstacle• Planning to Eliminate
Meeting with Related Organization
• The Revenue Department• The Securities and Exchange Commission • Federation of Accounting Professions• Commission Office of Insurance Commission
• ThaiBMA• BOT• Others
Set TransactionFormat
• Bond Selection• Calculation
• Exchange Approach
BS & BC Execution
18 Months
FY2014 FY2015
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Marketing & Roadshow
Examine the problem and obstacle
BS & BC 1) Capital Gain Tax 2) Accounting 3) (ThaiBMA)4) (BOT)5) AM 6)
BS BC (Long-term Investors)
AM
: ThaiBMA:
Capital Gain Tax Accounting Mark to Market Hold to Maturity Portfolio
ThaiBMA: ThaiBMA: BOT
BS BC (Long-Term Investors)
(Mutual Fund)
The Securities and Exchange Commission
1. Capital Gain Tax The Revenue Department
2. Calculation ThaiBMA 2. Accounting Federation of Accounting Professions
3. Hold to Maturity Portfolio
- The Securities and Exchange
- Commission Office of Insurance Commission
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
-Tentative-
-
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
GG
LB
14
8A
BA
AC
14
OA
GG
LB
14
OA
BA
AC
15
2A
BA
AC
15
2B
GG
LB
15
2A
GG
LB
15
3A
GG
LB
15
6A
GG
LB
15
6B
GG
LB
15
7A
GG
LB
15
7B
GG
LB
15
7C
BA
AC
15
9A
GG
LB
15
9A
GG
LB
15
9B
GG
LB
15
OA
GG
LB
16
2A
GG
LB
16
3A
GG
LB
16
4A
GG
LB
16
6A
BA
AC
16
9A
GG
LB
16
OA
GG
LB
16
NA
GG
LB
16
NB
BA
AC
17
2A
BA
AC
17
9A
BA
AC
18
9A
GG
LB
18
9A
BA
AC
19
2A
BA
AC
19
2B
BA
AC
20
8A
BA
AC
23
8A
BA
AC
23
8B
Roll Over Parallel with SOE Bond Development
Building a Benchmark Issue Bond Under GGLB Code to be Benchmark for SOE Bond
Enhancing Liquidity Re-open GGLB to Build-up Outstanding Size to Enhance Liquidity
Consulting Market Publicize information in all dimensions. To Increase confidence in the market.
GGLB148A20,000 THB Mil. GGLB189A
Coupon 4.02%
GGLB16NACoupon 3.53%
GGLB2XXXCoupon .. %
GG
LB16
NA
A
Super Size
3-Yr Benchmark Bond (re-open)
7-Yr Benchmark Bond (new)
A
GGLB148A
10 Aug 2014
B
C
BC
As of 27 March 2014
GGLB16NA69,580 THB Mil.
BA
AC
14
OA
BA
AC
15
2A
BA
AC
15
2B
BA
AC
15
9A
BA
AC
16
9A
BA
AC
17
2A
BA
AC
17
9A
BA
AC
18
9A
BA
AC
19
2A
BA
AC
19
2B
BA
AC
20
8A
BA
AC
23
8A
BA
AC
23
8B
FY2018-2023FY2017FY2016FY2015
15
-
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
GG
LB1
48A
BA
AC
14
OA
GG
LB1
4OA
BA
AC
15
2A
BA
AC
15
2B
GG
LB1
52A
GG
LB1
53A
GG
LB1
56A
GG
LB1
56B
GG
LB1
57A
GG
LB1
57B
GG
LB1
57C
BA
AC
15
9A
GG
LB1
59A
GG
LB1
59B
GG
LB1
5OA
GG
LB1
62A
GG
LB1
63A
GG
LB1
64A
GG
LB1
66A
BA
AC
16
9A
GG
LB1
6OA
GG
LB1
6NA
GG
LB1
6NB
BA
AC
17
2A
BA
AC
17
9A
BA
AC
18
9A
GG
LB1
89A
BA
AC
19
2A
BA
AC
19
2B
BA
AC
20
8A
BA
AC
23
8A
BA
AC
23
8B
Code Name Changed : Almost BAAC are in the scope of GGLB
GGLB = Bonds of Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives. The principal and interest of the Bonds are guaranteed by the Ministry of Finance,
and the Government of Thailand undertakes to make repayments of the principal and interest throughout of the Bonds in all respects
BAAC = Bonds of Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives. The principal and interest of the Bonds are guaranteed by the Ministry of Finance.ปจัจุบนั หลงั 29 มี.ค. 57
BAAC148A GGLB148ABAAC14OA BAAC14OABAAC14OB GGLB14OABAAC152A BAAC152ABAAC152B BAAC152BBAAC152C GGLB152ABAAC153A GGLB153ABAAC156A GGLB156ABAAC156B GGLB156BBAAC157A GGLB157ABAAC157B GGLB157BBAAC157C GGLB157CBAAC159A BAAC159ABAAC159B GGLB159ABAAC159C GGLB159BBAAC15OA GGLB15OABAAC162A GGLB162ABAAC163A GGLB163ABAAC164A GGLB164ABAAC166A GGLB166ABAAC169A BAAC169ABAAC16OA GGLB16OABAAC16NA GGLB16NBGGLB16NA GGLB16NABAAC172A BAAC172ABAAC179A BAAC179ABAAC189A BAAC189ABAAC189B GGLB189ABAAC192A BAAC192ABAAC192B BAAC192BBAAC208A BAAC208ABAAC238A BAAC238ABAAC238B BAAC238B
20,0
00
16,5
00
10,2
00
20,0
00
13,8
00
10,0
00
15,0
00
1,20
0
8,80
0
5,00
0
5,00
0
3,00
0
12,3
00
10,0
00
8,00
0 2,
000
2,00
0
2,00
0
GGLB16NA 69,580
7,00
0
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
GGLB
148A
BAAC
14O
A
GGLB
14O
A
BAAC
152A
BAAC
152B
GGLB
152A
GGLB
153A
GGLB
156A
GGLB
156B
GGLB
157A
GGLB
157B
GGLB
157C
BAAC
159A
GGLB
159A
GGLB
159B
GGLB
15O
A
GGLB
162A
GGLB
163A
GGLB
164A
GGLB
166A
BAAC
169A
GGLB
16O
A
GGLB
16NB
GGLB
16NA
BAAC
172A
BAAC
179A
BAAC
189A
GGLB
189A
BAAC
192A
BAAC
192B
BAAC
208A
BAAC
238A
BAAC
238B
BAAC 13 20,000GGLB 20 240,380
BAAC 32 191,800GGLB 1 68,580
GGLB = +
BAAC =
-
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
BA
AC
148
A
BA
AC
14O
A
BA
AC
14O
B
BA
AC
152
A
BA
AC
152
B
BA
AC
152
C
BA
AC
153
A
BA
AC
156
A
BA
AC
156
B
BA
AC
157
A
BA
AC
157
B
BA
AC
157
C
BA
AC
159
A
BA
AC
159
B
BA
AC
159
C
BA
AC
15O
A
BA
AC
162
A
BA
AC
163
A
BA
AC
164
A
BA
AC
166
A
BA
AC
169
A
BA
AC
16O
A
GG
LB1
6N
A
BA
AC
16N
A
BA
AC
172
A
BA
AC
179
A
BA
AC
189
A
BA
AC
189
B
BA
AC
192
A
BA
AC
192
B
BA
AC
208
A
BA
AC
238
A
BA
AC
238
B
P A S TSeries Outstanding (THB Mil.)
BAAC 32 191,800GGLB 1 69,580
GGLB16NA69,580 THB Mil.
GG
LB
16
NA
P R ES E N T
Now 29-Mar-14
BAAC148A GGLB148A
BAAC14OA BAAC14OA
BAAC14OB GGLB14OA
BAAC152A BAAC152A
BAAC152B BAAC152B
BAAC152C GGLB152A
BAAC153A GGLB153A
BAAC156A GGLB156A
BAAC156B GGLB156B
BAAC157A GGLB157A
BAAC157B GGLB157B
BAAC157C GGLB157C
BAAC159A BAAC159A
BAAC159B GGLB159A
BAAC159C GGLB159B
BAAC15OA GGLB15OA
BAAC162A GGLB162A
BAAC163A GGLB163A
BAAC164A GGLB164A
BAAC166A GGLB166A
BAAC169A BAAC169A
BAAC16OA GGLB16OA
GGLB16NA GGLB16NA
BAAC16NA GGLB16NB
BAAC172A BAAC172A
BAAC179A BAAC179A
BAAC189A BAAC189A
BAAC189B GGLB189A
BAAC192A BAAC192A
BAAC192B BAAC192B
BAAC208A BAAC208A
BAAC238A BAAC238A
BAAC238B BAAC238B
Series Outstanding (THB Mil.)
BAAC 13 20,000GGLB 20 240,380
GGLB16NA69,580 THB Mil.
BA
AC
14
OA
BA
AC
15
2A
BA
AC
15
2B
BA
AC
15
9A
BA
AC
16
9A
BA
AC
17
2A
BA
AC
17
9A
BA
AC
18
9A
BA
AC
19
2A
BA
AC
19
2B
BA
AC
20
8A
BA
AC
23
8A
BA
AC
23
8B
16
IBR
D
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
BAHT BOND
Linking CGIF & BAHT BOND to the Development of Bond MarketPublic Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Why now?Thailand (PDMO) is a Board member Set criteria Select corporate
What next? Toward becoming regional hub Increasing AAA Supply Broadening Issuer Base : Lao PDR(PDDF.)
Inv’tGrade
TargetedIndustry
NaturalHedging
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2,850THB mln.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
109,174THB mln.
CGIF Total Outstanding 9.2 THB TrillionEnd of March 2014
Baht Bond(Foreign Issuers Bond)
Corp Bond
SOEs Bond
BOT Bond
GOVT Bond
1%
22%
8%
31%
38%
CGIF 0.03%(For Asian Bond
Market Initiative)
Hana(18,000 m)
KEXIM(30,700 m)
Woori(13,000 m)
IBK(12,300 m)
Citi(11,553 m)
ADB(10,500 m)
KDB
AFD
CABEI
ING(10,000 m)
IBR
D
Timeline For Baht Bond Application Process
* The approval period is based on the fiscal period under Thai government law (October – September)
SUBMISSION CONSIDERATION Issuance Period 9 months (Sep - May)
SUBMISSION CONSIDERATION Issuance Period 9 months (Jan - Sep)
Apr May
SUBMISSION CONSIDERATION Issuance Period 9 months (Jan - Sep)
SUBMISSION CONSIDERATION Issuance Period 9 months (May - Jan)
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb MarApr May Jun Jul Aug SepNov Dec Jan Feb Mar
1
2
3
1
APPLICATION PROCESS: 3 rounds per year (9-mth issuance period for each round)
Hana
IBK
KDB
KEXIM
Woori
AFD
CABEI
CA-CIB
CBA
Citi
ENBD
ING
SEK
ADB
IBRD
Lao PDR
Noble
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
THE OUTSTANDING BAHT BOND
Classified by issuers based on TTM
Source: PDMOAs of March 31st, 2014
103,434 THB mln.
(36,690)
32%
(27,900)
24%
(22,409)
19%
(3,874)
3%
(9,066)
8%
(3,000)3% (5,000)
4%
(1,500)
1%(2,800)
2%
(2,000)
2%
(2,235)
2%
70%
21%
9%
(71,800 THB mln.)
(22,034 THB mln.)
(9,600THB mln.)
Korean Issuers IFIs & ABMI Others Completely Due(as of March 2014)
IBRD
Hana
KDB
KEXIM
Citi
ENBD
SEK
Hana
KEXIM
IBK
Woori
CA-CIB
THB mln.
56% Due within Y2015(64,590 THB mln.)
36%(13,040)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 … 2020
IFIs
Broadening Issuer’s “Qualification” to achieve “ASEAN Chosen Destination”
Issuer’s GovernmentGuarantee
SPV
Credit Rating
CGIFCGIF / Local Credit Rating
LAOS
TwinInaugural
II
BY TTM BY SECTOR
IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
-0-
I
I
COPORATE BOND MARKET CLASSIFICATION
NOBLEAAA
0
150,000
300,000
0
200,000
400,000
ENER
G
BA
NK
PR
OP
FIN
CO
NM
AT
FOO
D
TRA
NS
PE
TRO
CO
MM ICT
AG
RI
SPV
HEL
TH
PA
PER
AU
TO
TOU
R
MED
IA
ETR
ON
0
400,000
800,000
AAA AA A BBB BB 0 – 3 4 – 5 6 – 10 10+
BY CREDITRATING
Possible Next Step? ? ?
17
1 18
C: Basic & Essentials
• Public Debt Outstanding and Its Composition (As of Jan 2014) = 5,466,198 THB Mil. (45.75% of GDP)
• Bond Market Capitalization and Its Composition (As of Mar 2014) = 9,202,573 THB Mil.(76% of GDP)
• Total GOVT Bond Supply Issuing in FY2014
• GOVT Bond Auction Result in First Half of FY2014
• Non-Resident Holding in Domestic Bond
NR Holding in THB Bond (As of Mar 2014) = 679,137 THB Mil.
(GOVT Bond : 559,677 THB Mil., BOT Bond 118,713 THB Mil., Corp Bond : 747 THB Mil.)
Net Change in NR Holding (Jan – Mar 2014) = -28,238 THB Mil.
(GOVT Bond : Net Sell -36,164 THB Mil., BOT Bond : Net Buy +7,926 THB Mil.)
24 19
Forecast Public Debt to GDP
Source: Policy and Planning Bureau, as of 2 January 2014, Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance
14.6%
35.6%
48.3%
60.9%61.7% 60.6%
56.9%
52.2%
51.0%50.6%
43.5% 39.6%
37.3%
45.2%
42.6%
41.7%
45.5%
45.86%
4.84%
9.12%10.87%
12.52%11.54% 11.26%
10.20%
12.61%
9.98%7.41%7.41%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Public Debt to GDP Repayment Budget/Budget Expenditure
Sustainability Framework
Public Debt to GDP < 60%
Balance Budget
% of GDP
Components of Public Debt Units : THB Mil.
1. Government Debt (excluded FIDF) 2,731,161
2. Government Debt (for FIDF) 1,107,240
3. Non-Financial Sate Enterprise Debt 1,090,502
4. Special Financial Institutions Guaranteed Debt 536,460
5. Autonomous Agency Debt 835
Public Debt Outstanding 5,466,198
*including 71,901 THB Mil. of External Debt
Public debt Outstanding (as of January 2014) = 5.47 THB Trillion (45.75% of GDP)
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Source : Information Technology Centre, PDMO
GOVT Debt50.0%
2.73 THB Trillion
*
GOVT Debt(for FIDF)
20.3%
1.11 THB Trillion
Non-Financial
Sate Enterprise Debt
19.9%
1.09 THB Trillion
Special Financial Institutions
Guaranteed Debt
9.8%
0.54 THB TrillionAutonomous Agency Debt
0.02%
0.001 THB Trillion
20
Government Funding Instruments
Benchmark Bond ~600,000THB Mil. (52%)
Savings Bond ~100,000THB Mil. (8%)
Amortized Bond ~100,000THB Mil (8%)
Inflation-Linked Bond ~80,000THB Mil. (7%)
Promissory Note ~40,000THB Mil. (4%)
Floating Rate Bond ~30,000THB Mil. (3%)
Bank Loan ~200,000THB Mil. (18%)
Total 1,150,000 THB Mil. (100%)
($20.4 Bil.)
($1.4 Bil.)
($3.5 Bil.)
($1.0 Bil.)
($40 Bil.)
($3.5 Bil.)
($2.8 Bil.)
($7.0 Bil.)
10
3
5
7
2030
Source: ThaiBMA Government Bond Yield Curve as of 31 March 2014
15
50
The “Missing Composition” of Leader role in the Bond Market
Benchmark Bond
Infrastructure
liquidity
Full Capacity* of All Government Funding Instruments 1,150,000 THB Mil. per Year* Under favorable market liquidity + using All funding instruments ($35 Bil.)**
GBI-EM GlobalJP Morgan
Asian Local MarketsHSBC
iBoxx Asia ex JapanMarkit
7.7% 7.8% 7.8%
Thailand’s Loan Bonds (LBs) weighting in international indices
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
LB 3 yrs 150,000 THB Mil.
LB 5 yrs 120,000 THB Mil.LB 7 yrs 80,000 THB Mil.LB 10 yrs 80,000 THB Mil.LB 15 yrs 60,000 THB Mil.LB 20 yrs 60,000 THB Mil.LB 30 yrs 30,000 THB Mil.LB 50 yrs 20,000 THB Mil.
Benchmark Bond
($4.6 Bil.)
($2.4 Bil.)
($4.0 Bil.)
($1.8 Bil.)
($1.8 Bil.)($0.9 Bil.)($0.6 Bil.)
($2.4 Bil.)
TTM (yrs.)
%
Last Update : Feb 2014
**Source: BOT Exchange rate as End of Mar 2014
**
25
187,
727
242,
222
164,
297
114,
271
123,
704
273,
994
5,78
3
184,
110
80,
02
5
32,
50
0
47,
00
0
192,
730
67,
00
0
2,20
0
41,9
00
33,5
81
6,50
0
71,
00
0
5,50
0
20,0
00
95,
93
6
14,0
00
29,8
00
27,8
00
95,
20
5
58,2
47
86,
63
0
16,
00
0
22,0
00
100,
872
18,9
00
43,0
00
15,7
00
35,0
00
13,2
48
11,2
57
10,0
00
9,25
0
60,0
00
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
40,0
00
58,4
40
39,8
36
141,
963
25,0
00
37,9
00
40,0
00
39,0
00
35,0
00
64,1
24
27,8
87
68,4
41
128,
000
75,0
00
101,
800 69
,000
101,
850
14,0
00
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
41%
26%33%
60%
35%
5%
TTM Fiscal Year
Average-Time-to-Maturity (ATM) = 8yrs 4mths
Average Cost = 4.19%
Fixed : Floating = 87 : 13Total GOVT Debt = 3.77* THB Trillion
Assumptions : 6 months BIBOR = 2.47%, 6 months Fixed Deposit Rate = 1.79%, Inflation = 1.93%
As of Jan 2014
**Excluding 71,901 THB Mil. of Foreign Debt
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand* Excluding 71,901 THB Mil. of Foreign Debt
GOVT Debt (for FIDF) = 1,107,240 THB Mil.
FIDF 1 FIDF 3
Maturity Profile
Budget Deficit T-Bill TKK On-lending Loan Water Decree
GOVT Direct Debt (exclude FIDF) = 2,659,260** THB Mil. Maturity Profile
TTM Fiscal Year
ATM = 4yrs 7mths Avg. Cost = 4.29%
Fixed : Floating = 85: 15
Callable = 13%
ATM = 9yrs 10mths Avg. Cost = 4.15%
Fixed : Floating = 88 : 12
Callable = 8%
44%
25%31%
Next 5 yrs 6-10 yrs 10 yrs +
Next 5 yrs 6-10 yrs 10 yrs +
21 -
54%
28%18%
next 5 yrs year 6 -10 10 yrs +
41%
26%33%
(1) ATM Lengthened(2) Cost Lowered(3) Well-Balanced Fixed-Float Ratio(4) Well-Distributed Maturity Profile
Well-Developed Bond Market Improved
GOV’T Direct Debt Profile Dramatically
Well-Balanced Fixed/Floating Ratio(Target : Fixed/Float ratio = 80 : 20)
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Well-Distributed Maturity Profile(Maturing Debt in the next 5 yrs is less than 50% of Total Debt)
Floating 12%Floating 10%
ATM
5yrs 3mths
ATM
9yrs 10mths
Avg. cost
4.5%
As of Dec 2007 As of January 2014
Avg. cost
4.1%
Fixed
90%
Note : Government Direct Debt = 2.66 THB Million (exclude FIDF)
Fixed
88%
Avg. Cost LOWERED by 40 bps.(While ATM Lengthened by 5 yrs)
Average-Time-to-Maturity
LENGTHENED by 5 yrs
next 5 yrs year 6 -10 10 yrs +
41%
26%33%
21 22
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Mar
201
4
Bank Loan /GDP Equity/GDP Bond Market / GDP
≤ 1<yr≤3 3<yr≤5 5<yr≤10 10<yr≤50
BOT76%
24%
11%
17%
17%MOF28%
27%
Bond Market Cap. = 9.2 THB Trillion GOVT Bond = 3.4 THB Trillion
101%
76%
Baht Bond
Corp Bond
SOEs Bond
BOT Bond
GOVT Bond
1%
22%
8%
31%
38%
Domestic Bond Market Classified by Issuer% Share of GDP
Maturity Profile
BOT vs GOVT Bond
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
103%
Asian Fin. Crisis
12%
24%
128%
0.03%
($283 Bil.)* ($107 Bil.)*
2,835,122 THB Mil.
3,492,013 THB Mil.
CGIF(For Asian Bond
Market Initiative)
End of Mar 2014
BOT ATM = 8mths GOVT ATM = 8yrs 4mth
*Source: BOT Exchange rate as End of Mar 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Corp Bond
SOEs Bond
BOT Bond
GOVT Bond
1%
22%
8%
38%
Domestic Bond Market 2014Classified by Issuer
3,492,013 THB Mil.
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Baht Bond(Foreign Issuers Bond)
31%
38%
GOVT
2004
Corp Bond 22%
SOEs Bond 8%
31%
BOT
54% (1,286,620 THB Mil.)
13%(312,340 THB Mil.)
Market share rose nearly… 3 Folds Outstanding size rose by… 9 times
BOT Bond Supply Rose Dramatically (2004 – Mar 2014)
CGIF 0.03%
2,835,122 THB Mil.
% Share of Domestic Bond Market
Baht Bond 1%
End of Mar 2014
Mar 2014
22 23
CGIF 0.03%
Corp Bond
22%
Government
38%SOEs
8%
• 77 percent of Thailand’s debt securities are issued by Government, Bank of Thailand and State-Owned EnterprisesIssuers
• 97 percent of Thailand’s debt securities are classified as Investment GradeCredit Rating
• Thailand’s government debt securities are held by a wide group of investor typesInvestors
Domestic Bond Market(Classified by Issuers)
Source : ThaiBMA (End of Mar 2014)
Equilibrium of Domestic Bond Market
Source : ThaiBMA (End of Mar 2014)
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Domestic Bond Market(Classified by Credit Rating)
BOT
31%
Total of 9.2 THB Trillion Total of 9.2 THB Trillion
Baht Bond 1%
AA 4%
A 8%
Government
38%
BOT
31%
SOEs8%
BBB
2%
Non-rated3%
Source : BOT (End of Feb 2014)
Government Debt Securities (Classified by Types of Investors)
Total of 3.4 THB Trillion
Government Debt Securities (Classified by Types of Investors)
BOT 6%
Insurance and
Other Corporation
36%
DepositoryCorporation
33%
NR17%
Household and
Non-profit
BOT 6%
Insurance and
Other Corporation
36%
DepositoryCorporation
34%
NR17%
7%
• Allow both issuer and investors to improve their portfolio
• Larger outstanding size + Less bond series Enhance liquidity in the secondary market
• Suitable financing instrument for the government’s investment mega-project in the form of PPP • Pay back the bond principal by installments Promote the government’s fiscal discipline
FY2007 – FY2014 Innovation of GOVT Debt SecuritiesFY
20
07
-10
FY 2
01
1
• Broaden investor base – Retail investors• Low interest burden at the initial periods of bond
• Increase floating debt ratio of Total Government Debt Portfolio • Promote BIBOR (Bangkok Interbank Offered Rate)
• Lengthen average-time-to-maturity of Total Government Debt Portfolio• Meet Long-term investors’ demand
FY 2
01
2-2
01
4
PDDF Activated(Public Debt Restructuring
and Domestic Bond Market Development Fund)
UpgradePD Privileges
Baht Bond
CGIF Activated(Credit Guarantee and
Investment Facility)
Step-up Savings Bond
Floating Rate Bond
30-yr Benchmark Bond
• Lower Minimum Amount to Purchase / Offer throughout the year• Develop the retail bond into an electronic form Scripless System• Can be purchased via ATM, in addition of Bank Retail Branches
• Strong anti-inflationary signal• Deepen the Development of the Bond market
• 1st country in Emerging Asian Economies
• Combat low interest rate + Lengthen average time-to-maturity
• 4th country in the world (1st : UK 2nd : France 3rd : China)50-yr Benchmark Bond
Electronic Retail Savings Bond
10-yr Inflation-Linked Bond (ILB)
• Broaden investor base – Insurance / Long-term investors• Non-Benchmark tenorsFixed Rate Promissory Note
Bond Switching & Consolidation
Amortized Bond
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
15-yr ILB
24
1. 1. Trading Volume 2. Turnover Ratio3. 3. Demand Concentration 4. Auction Price
75%
84%
76%77%
80%
14.713.7
12.8
7.5
+1.2 bps
+1.4 bps
-0.4 bps
+3.2 bps
7%
FY2008-FY2013 Key Success Indicators
Benchmark Bond 5 yrs and Below : Highest secondary trading volume in every year
Top 10 GOVT Bond Series : Accounted for 90% of all GOVT bond trading volume in secondary market
Well-Developed Benchmark Bond Pays Off : Even with greater size of issuance, the cost of funding is still at market rate
Unit: USD Bil.
27%
20%
28%
20%
Unit: % Share of Market Trading Volume
Unit: % Share of Secondary Trading Volume
5-yr Benchmark Bond’s Higher Turnover Ratio : Even the higher outstanding size, turnover ratio is still more than 2 times
LB15DA
LB155A
LB145B
LB133A
LB133A9
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
29%
LB176A
1.5
3.12.4
4.2
2.8
4.2
90%
+0.9 bps
16.5
21%
90%
2.9
LB196A
15.9
-0.2 bps
Unit: Times
To be Updated
23
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000LB
196
A
LB17
6A
LB21
DA
LB23
6A
LB15
5A
LB15
DA
LB14
5B
LB61
6A
ILB
217A
LB41
6A
LB18
3B
LBA
37D
A
LB29
6A
LB17
OA
LB27
DA
LB19
3A
LB21
3A
LB32
6A
ILB
283A
LB28
3A
LB16
NA
LB19
8A
LB16
7A
LB23
3A
LB26
7A
LB24
DA
LB19
1A
LB14
DA
LB17
5A
LB25
DA
LB31
6A
LB17
1A
LB21
4A
LB19
DA
LB15
7A
LB24
4A
LB22
NA
LB18
3A
LB40
6A
LB44
6A
LB14
5A
LB39
6A
LB38
3A
Ou
tsta
nd
ing
size
(TH
B M
il.)
Tier 1: >100,000MB(9 Series)
Tier 2: 50,000 – 100,000MB(15 Series)
5
10
15
LB
27
DA
LB
23
6A
LB
21
DA
ILB
28
3A
LB
17
6A
LB
44
6A
LB
19
3A L
B6
16
A
LB
A3
7D
A
15
ILB
Tier 1 > 100,000 THB Mil. in Size (90% of Trading Volume)
LB
29
6A
Tier 2 > 50,000 THB Mil. in Size (8% of Trading Volume)
FY 2014 on-the-run Benchmark Bond
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
50
Total GOVT Bond = 43 Series(3,021,XXX THB Mil.)
(as of Q2/FY2014)
LB
19
6A
30
25
LBA
THB Mil.
Source : ThaiBMA
FY2014 Q2 Market Share of Trading Volume in Secondary Market
Tier 2
0 50 100
Tier 1
90% 8% 2%8%
FY 2014 on-the-run Innovative Bond
100,000
25
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
LB14
5A
LB14
5B
LB14
DA
LB15
5A
LB15
7A
LB15
DA
LB16
7A
LB16
NA
LB17
1A
LB17
5A
LB17
6A
LB17
OA
LB18
3A
LB18
3B
LB19
1A
LB19
3A
LB19
6A
LB19
8A
LB19
DA
LB21
3A
LB21
4A
ILB
217A
LB21
DA
LB22
NA
LB23
3A
LB23
6A
LB24
4A
LB24
DA
LB25
DA
LB26
7A
LB27
DA
ILB
283A
LB28
3A
LB29
6A
LB31
6A
LB32
6A
LBA
37D
ALB
383
ALB
396
ALB
406
ALB
416
ALB
446
A
LB61
6A
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
TTM
Source : ThaiBMA
Well-Distributed Bond Maturity Profile(as of Q2/FY2014)
Current Outstanding ≤ THB 50 Bil.
FY 2014 on-the-run Benchmark Bond
Current Outstanding ≥ THB 100 Bil.
Current Outstanding = THB 50-100 Bil.
5
10
1515
ILB
50
30
LB
27
DA
LB
23
6A
LB
21
DA
ILB
28
3A
LB
17
6A
LB
44
6A
LB
61
6A
LB
A3
7D
A
LB
29
6A
LB
19
6A
1 2 543 6 – 10 years 11 – 50 years
FY 2014 on-the-run Innovative Bond
THB Mil.
100,00025
LBA
The outstanding size of loan bond maturing in the next 5 years
is 1,069,019 THB Mil. (35% of Total GOVT Bond)
13
181,
994
115,
850
55,0
00
50,0
00
54,0
00
50,0
00
81,2
05
120,
000
82,0
00
25,0
00 58,0
00
55,0
00
50,0
00
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
5-yr
Government Bond Supply7 Fixed Coupon Bonds5 Benchmark Bonds Series1 Inflation-Linked Bond1 Amortized Bond
LB24
6A
10
15 30 50LBA25
AB
Option C Top-up 120,000MB on LB196A (301,994MB)
Milestone Thai’s First 10 Billion USD bond
C
Ou
tsta
nd
ing
size
(TH
B M
il.)
PD Survey (9/13 responded)
5 10
FY 2014
5
15
25
ILB
50
30
FY 2014 Indicative Benchmark Bond
10
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
15
LB1
96
A
LB2
36
A
ILB
28
3A
LB2
96
A
LBA
37
DA
LB4
46
A
LB61
6A
300,000MB
($10 Billion)
Super size
Plan-to-issue Amount in FY 2014
Outstanding Amount as of the beginning of FY 2014
15-yrInflation-Linked Bond
25-yrAmortized Bond
26
Total Fund Raising Plan 610,xxx THB Mil.Last Updated: March 2014
RolloverFIDF Debt
RolloverGovt Debt
Deficit
Benchmark Bond(5 - 15 - 30 - 50-yr)
Benchmark Bond (10-yr)
Inflation Linked Bond
Amortized Bond – 25 years
Savings Bond and Others
Promissory Notes
278,000
82,000
Savings Bond
Dollar Bond
Non-Benchmark
New Product
123,000
55,00025,000
47,124
250,000
231,000
129,124
By Bills By Instruments
Infrastructure
137,xxx
(As of Sep 25th,2013)
New
Bo
rro
win
g 25
0,00
0 M
B.
Ro
ll O
ver
360,
124
MB
387,xxx MB
360,124 MB
9,xxx
PlannedDisbursement
9,xxx MB
FY 2014
Depending on Disbursement Plan and Uncertainty of Legisiative Process
Firm Bond Supply among uncertainty of Political Conflict
Q: Will the “pause” of the
Water Decree and Infrastructure Bill affect the Announced Government Bond Supply?
A: No, they will not.
The Water Decree and Infrastructure Bill were planned to be raised through short-term “Bank Loan” which provide more flexibility and cost saving. Then, they will be converted to long-term instrumentlater.
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Savings Bond Dollar BondNon-Benchmark
New Product
Bank Loan6 mths – 4 yrsInfrastructure
Water
21
27
20,000 7,000 5,000 13,000 5,000 5,000 20,000 8,000 12,000 10,000 12,000 9,000 4,160 10,000 20,000 9,000 13,000 16,000 9,000
2.7
-6.1
-8.3
3.9
-15.0
0.8
-0.4
-9.6
-5.4
3.2 2.9
-7.8
6.3
-7.0
-1.2
-8.1
-5.4
-0.2
-8.9
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-75,000
-50,000
-25,000
-
25,000
50,000
75,0006
No
v 1
3
6 N
ov
13
13
No
v 1
3
20
No
v 1
3
27
No
v 1
3
3 D
ec
13
11
De
c 1
3
11
De
c 1
3
18
De
c 1
3
8 J
an
14
29
Ja
n 1
4
29
Ja
n 1
4
5 F
eb
14
12
Fe
b 1
4
19
Fe
b 1
4
19
Fe
b 1
4
26
Fe
b 1
4
19
Ma
r 1
4
26
Ma
r 1
4
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance
Q2/FY14
Basis Points
FY 2014 Government Bond Auction ResultClassified by Quarterly Auction Schedule
Million Baht
FOMC : QE3 Tapered @29 Jan 14
MPC : Maintain 2.25% @22 Jan 14
Dissolution of Parliament
@9 Dec 13
MPC cut rate@27 Nov 13
FOMC : QE3 Tapered
@18 Dec 13
LB5y LB5yLB10y LB10yLB15y LB15yLB50y LB50yLB30y LB30yILB15y ILB15yLBA25y LBA25yLB15y LB50y
MPC cut rate@27 Nov 13
Dissolution of Parliament
@9 Dec 13
FOMC : QE3 Tapered
@18 Dec 13
Q1/FY14
LB10y LB30yLB5y
Dissolution of the parliament
GOVT Bond Auction is decoupledfrom political situation
Bid Tight
5-10 yr Benchmark BondAmortized Bond
15-30-50 yr Benchmark Bond Inflation-linked Bond
T-1= 0
Basis Points
20,000 20,000 20,000 13,000 12,000 16,000 7,000 10,000 10,000 5,000 9,000 9,000 5,000 8,000 9,000
2.7
-0.4-1.2
3.9
2.9
-0.2
-6.1
3.2
-7.0
-15.0
-7.8
-8.9-8.3
-9.6
-8.1
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000Benchmark Bond 5 – 10yr Benchmark Bond 15 – 50yr
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance
FY 2014 GOVT Bond Auction Results Classified by Tenor
A
B
Basis Points
5yr(Exclusivity)
10yr 15yr 30yr 50yr
T-1= 0
A u c t i o n R e s u l t s B e l o w T h e M a r k e t P r i c e
5.0
2.5
7.5
10.0
12.5
-10.0
-12.5
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
Million Baht Basis Points
ALL Benchmark Bond : Fully Allocated
30-to-50-yr Benchmark Bond : Avg.Accepted LOWER than Market Price
B
A
F u l l y A l l o c a t e d
T-1= 0
5-10 yr Benchmark Bond 15-30-50 yr Benchmark Bond Basis Points
28 28
Ver
bal
Inte
rven
tio
n4
Me
asu
res
of
Cap
ital
Co
ntr
ol
2014 (The past 13 weeks)
Tapering QE3-to-dateTotal Outflow = 83,437 Mil.
(BOT = 52,050 Mil.)(GOVT = 31,387 Mil.)
0
THB Mil.
+7,926 THB Mil.
BOT Bond
-36,164 THB Mil.
GOVT Bond
2014
YTD in Non-resident Holding BOT Bond & GOVT Bond
End of Mar 2014
+
+ +
+
GOVT Bond
2007-09 : Net outflow = 43,xxxMB
GOVT
BOT
THB Mil.
2010-13 : Net inflow = 650,xxxMB
Net Change in Non-Resident Holding (YTD)
Net Outflow = -28,238 THB Mil.
0
To be Updated
BOT : Net Buy +7,926 MB. Sell -26,727 MB. Buy +34,653 MB.
GOVT : Net Sell -36,164 MB. Sell -48, 902MB. Buy +12,738 MB.
2013 YTD(27 Dec 2013)
Non-resident Net Buy/Sell in BOT Bond
Non-resident Net Buy/Sell in GOVT
2013 : Net outflow= -3,7xxMB
End of Mar 2014
-28,238 THB Mil.
BOT Bond
+7,926
-36,164GOVT Bond
2014 YTD(End of Mar 2014)
29 29
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%M
ar-0
8
Jun
-08
Sep
-08
Dec
-08
Mar
-09
Jun
-09
Sep
-09
Dec
-09
Mar
-10
Jun
-10
Sep
-10
Dec
-10
Mar
-11
Jun
-11
Sep
-11
Dec
-11
Mar
-12
Jun
-12
Sep
-12
Dec
-12
Mar
-13
Jun
-13
Sep
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
NR Holding in Thai GOVT Bond is 559,677 THB Mil.
or 16% of Total GOVT Bond Outstanding
PeersComparison
Percentage share of Non-resident Holding in Local Government Bond (Mar 2008 - Present)
1%
(27,424 THB Mil.)
Source : AsianBondsOnline, ThaiBMA
As of Aug 30th 2013
Relatively “moderate” share of NR holding by region average
To be Updated
Total of 3.4 THB Trillion
Government Debt Securities (Classified by Types of Investors)
End of Mar 2014
Malaysia29.4%Dec’ 13
Thailand16%
End of Mar’ 14
Korea9.5%Sep’13
Indonesia
32.54%Dec’ 13
Japan8.02%Dec’ 13
Peak @ 19.1%(Apr’ 13)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
IssuerNon-Resident Holding
(THB Million)% Share of Thai Bond Market Cap.
(9,202,573 THB Million)
GOVT Bond 559,677 6.08%
BOT Bond 118,713 1.29%
SOE Bond 0 0%
Corp Bond 747 0.01%
TOTAL 679,137 7.38%
2,751,454
264,768
Non-resident Holding in THB Bond = 679,137 THB Mil.(7.38% of Thai Bond Market Capitalization)
Thai Bond Market Cap. = 9,202,573 THB Mil.
Classified by Issuer (End of March 2014)
2,716,409 THB Mil.
%
95.8%
GOVT Bond Outstanding3,492,013 THB Mil.
BOT Bond Outstanding2,835,122 THB Mil.
Baht Bond(Foreign Issuers Bond)
Corp Bond
SOEs Bond
BOT Bond
GOVT Bond
1%
22%
8%
31%
38%
2,835,122 THB Mil.
3,492,013 THB Mil.
Non-Resident118,713 THB Mil.
Non-Resident559,677 THB Mil.
Domestic Investors
2014 Outstanding(% share of Bond Market)
CGIF 0.03%(For Asian Bond Market Initiative)
As of Aug 23rd 2013
End of Mar 2014
%
Domestic Investors
84%
2,932,336 THB Mil.
็ ฒ
Bond Market Development Bureau, Public Debt Management Office Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
For Further Information :
Pimpen Ladpli +66 2271 7999 ext. 5802 [email protected] Senior Expert on Bond Market Development
Acting Executive Director of Bond Market Development Bureau
Nattakarn Boonsri +66 2271 7999 ext. 5803 [email protected] Director of Government Bond Market Development Division
Sophida Sritomya +66 2271 7999 ext. 5804 [email protected]
Director of Fund Management and Bond Market Infrastructure Development Division
Nakarin Prompat +66 2271 7999 ext. 5812 [email protected] Acting Director of International Bond Market Policy Division
Chakrit Phothisuk +66 2271 7999 ext. 5811 [email protected] Economist
Kasirat Suwanpen +66 2271 7999 ext. 5806 [email protected] Economist
Phimonphan Tanwattana +66 2271 7999 ext. 5816 [email protected] Economist
Kittiya Chaithep +66 2271 7999 ext. 5809 [email protected] Economist
Chanikarn Chaiyasena +66 2271 7999 ext. 5818 [email protected] Economist
Pathida Rattanapinyo +66 2271 7999 ext. 5801 [email protected]
Economist
Chularat Suteethorn Director-General, Public Debt Management Office
Suwit Rojanavanich Bond Market Advisor