Introduction to the Technology and Future of Medicine Course

LABMP 590Winter 2017

“The Accessible Future”

Kim Solez, MD

Quiz to See What You Already Know

1. Ten minutes. Can leave questions blank.2. Content and format similar to parts of mid term

February 28th. (Will also be multiple choice.)3. Does not count toward your grade but allows us

to see how much you already know and how much your knowledge is improved by course.

4. Helps us to structure future lectures in the course so they will best serve your needs.

Objectives For This Lecture1. To outline the basic plan of course and its

expectations, due dates, evaluation criteria, and feedback mechanisms, and new features.

2. To begin to introduce basic concepts of the course including technological singularity, exponential change, existential risk, the accessible future.

3. To outline plans for March 1st Future Day event at Massawa Cafe. Students from past terms may take part & may attend teaching sessions of the course.

4. To outline expectations for mid-term exam February 28th on material to February 16th, mentor and topic selection due March 16th, and the 3,000-4,000 word final paper due April 4th.

Course Format1. 80 minute class periods Tuesdays and Thursdays. Each

registered student will take on a special project of their own with guidance by the faculty and present the results of that special project in the latter portion of the course. See http://www.singularitycourse.com

2. Flipped classroom session with Jonathan White. Watch past videos before hand and ask questions during class.

3. The course emphasizes the idea of the “accessible future”. Concepts of the future which are easily understood by an informed general public and which follow rules of common sense, and are of practical value.

4. Taking the course on the road between semesters, mixing technology presentations with themed music and poetry: The Future and All That Jazz with Mallory Chipman. Arts and Humanities in Health and Medicine link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8TOJGQanJg

Course Deadlines, Evaluation1. Students will be evaluated on their presentation on their

chosen project in the course (30%), a paper on that project (40%), the mid-term exam (20%) and class participation (10%). 

2. Students should pick a mentor and final paper topic by March 16th & inform Dr. Solez at kim.solez@ualberta.ca . The paper is due April 4th and should be 3,000 to 4,000 words excluding references (10-13 pages). The final paper and presentation must be on a subject related to one of the main themes of the course such as exponential change, the technological Singularity, nanotechnology, genomics, replacement of human labor by machines, existential risks, and medical ethics of the future. Sources of images used should be indicated. 5 points a day will be deducted for late work.

The Technological SingularityThe technological singularity occurs as artificial intelligences surpass human beings as the smartest and most capable life forms on the Earth. Technological development is taken over by the machines, who can think, act and communicate so quickly that normal humans cannot even comprehend what is going on. The machines enter into a "runaway reaction" of self-improvement cycles, with each new generation of A.I.s appearing faster and faster. From this point onwards, technological advancement is explosive, under the control of the machines, and thus cannot be accurately predicted (hence the term "Singularity"). – Ray Kurzweil

Major Singularity Developments in February 2011

Focus Groups in May 2011

Course conceptualized in March 2011, tested with

focus groups in May for its suitability as a

course for both undergraduate and graduate students.

Over Time Our Course’s Sessions Have Developed a Pedagogical

Rhythm, Leading To A Self-organized Structure

Ten minute introduction Fifty minute lecture Twenty minute discussion In the course we talk about

machines replacing many of the functions of human beings. This picture was taken by a machine without human intervention, as were many of the best still images from the course. The video camera is constantly comparing the scene to algorithms and takes still pictures when the requirements of the interesting picture algorithm are satisfied.

Video and Audio Quality Superb Now!

First teaching session 2011 Teaching session 2012

Hot-linked tables of contents in YouTube video descriptions allow one to jump right to content of interest.

Some Student Presentation Videos Have Had Amazing Positive Effects!

Secured awesome tech job in NYC. Was part of “Future and All That Jazz” in London UK

in August 2016.

Website: www.singularitycourse.comJonathan White’s first lecture originally began with a song “The Future Soon” by Jonathan Coulton.

Mid term Covers Material to February 16th and Main Points of Jonathan White’s TEDx Talk from June 2014 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRbErYIUvS4 from minute 6:40 on.

Rich Sutton (UAlberta) Future of AI meeting Puerto Rico Jan

3, 2015

Acceptance. Share power. The AIs will not all be under our control. They will compete and cooperate with us just like other people, except with greater diversity and Asymmetries We need to set up mechanisms (social, legal, political, cultural) to ensure that this works out well Inevitably, conventional humans will be less important. Step 1: Lose your sense of entitlementStep 2: Include AIs in your circle of empathy Thought provoking for us all!

AI Safety and Regenerative Medicine: Areas Where We Need to Broaden Audience By Going Beyond Lecturing to Other Communication Modalities:

The Future and All That Jazz with Mallory Chipman We endeavor to shoot broadcast quality video of each

lecture and discussion. Previous lectures on YouTube.com at /user/KimSolez. Course website http://www.singularitycourse.com No required reading. Suggested reading list in course

outline, readings suggested by Email.

Course Specifics

The technological Singularity. Existential risks, AI, genomics, and nanotech.

Ways to optimize a positive outcome for humanity in the co-evolution of humans and machines . The influence of these considerations on medicine of the future.

Prominent people internationally. Most lectures not very “medical”. Easily understood.

Balanced view provided by incorporating both tech skeptics and tech advocates.

Course Content

Problem of Audience Heterogeneity

Some already know what the technological Singularity is, others don’t, and are finding out now.

However, if the people and ideas I present are genuinely new and interesting I should be able to satisfy both groups.

The most interesting aspects have to do with the impact on young people today.

Considerable youth orientation in the course. Faculty are getting younger and younger.

Material from course taught to first year medical students.

Student group related to course. Planning optional activities outside of class time. Movies. Entertainment. Food. Future Day March 1st.

Link to poetry readings at The Almanac (tonight) and Massawa Café (on other Tuesday nights). Course the subject of my poetry. The Road Home mornings on CKUA with Bob Chelmick.

Link with December 3-6 TERMIS meeting in Charlotte, N.C. Transplantation Pathology Morphs into Tissue Engineering Pathology.

Other Innovations New in 2017 Students May Wish to Pursue As An Option

Marcus Hutter, ppt with audioThe Singularity Inside and Out

How Inside Outside and Singularity impact young people, important concepts discussed in course.

Nova program on PBS Television (7 million viewers)

Big Bang Theory (the TV show; 80 million viewers)

Smart phone owners (3 billion people). Singularity Summit (9,000 views per video) Kim Solez – Technology and Future of Medicine

Course LABMP 590 (4,200 views per video) Kim Solez as TEC-Canada Chair Part Time?

Disseminating ideas from course to business leaders in groups of 8-16 and one-on-one.

http://www.tec-canada.com/en/vistage-worldwide/

The Technological Singularity – Dissemination of Ideas

.

The Challenge of Friendly AI Probably Exaggerated

However, Hutter suggests that there is an element of human insignificance that makes whole scenario much more challenging. Also, Hutter has created a model of general AI which makes the challenge seem more immediate!

Outside the Singularity looking in it will be white noise

Inside the Singularity if everything speeds up at the same rate we may not notice anything; it may seem like normal life to us

Even if initially our biological brains count for something in our mental processes, very soon the processing power of the machine implant will vastly outstrip our biological brains. Our biological brains become insignificant regardless of the friendliness of the AI

Hutter For the First Time Conjures Up A Picture of What the Singularity Will Be Like

Extreme risk taking because we can back ourselves up from backups if something bad happens

Insignificance, lack of identity. Why wait to create backups when we have the processing power to run several lives at once. Can replicate ourselves endlessly in seconds! No more waiting 9 months!

The world has little incentive to keep identities straight when biological brains contribute so little to mental processes. Bigger not better

Aimlessness, lack of sense of purpose

Stuck In A Dysphoric “Eternal Youth” A Caricature Of What It Is Like To Be Young

The challenge of producing a friendly AI becomes just a small part of the much larger challenge of creating a friendly world in which humans still have lives of significance, human history is retained and extended

A positive outcome is possible; let’s make it likely We all need to be engaged in ensuring a positive

outcome for humanity. The future is ours to shape. We need to get busy doing that!

A simple approach is needed to engage the general public on these matters!

This course is a beginning attempt at achieving that.

Real Youth Today Also Experiences Dystopia Due To Poor Economy, Worth

Working Hard To Ensure A Better Future For Ourselves!

Five Years Ago Structure Became Much Simpler. Course Is One Of

Very Few Independent Singularity Entities.

Foxconn Announcement That It Was Replacing One Million

Workers with One Million Robots 5 Years Ago Made Singularity

Appear Much Nearer

Foxconn Has Replaced Half Of Its Work Force With Robots https://

www.inverse.com/article/16254-foxconn-is-bringing-in-more-robot-workers-but-not-the-1-million-it-promised-it-would

The challenge of friendly AI becomes just a small part of a much larger challenge of creating a friendly world in which humans still have lives of significance, human history is retained and extended.

We all need to be engaged in ensuring a positive outcome for humanity. The future is ours to shape. We need to get busy doing that!

Part of the imagined future could beone where all disease was eliminated but life was intolerable. Another where the only diseases are from bioterrorism.

We Could Eliminate All Disease and Still Have A Terrible World!

All natural disease may be eliminated, leaving only man-made diseases. But that may leave as much for physicians to do as there is today!

Challenging responses to bioterrorism and stem cell technologies.

Focus of medicine no longer disease but enhancement, which will extend beyond the physical to the moral.

Social responsibility an important aspect of medicine and one of the focuses of the course.

2045 is only 28 years from now. Many of you will still be working then. What will

medical careers be like then?

“It is the curse of humanity that it learns to tolerate even the most horrible situations by habituation. Physicians are the natural attorneys of the poor, and the social problems should largely be solved by them.” -Rudolf Virchow

Rudolf Virchow on the Social Responsibility of Medicine

In 2010 became the only full time University faculty member taking the

Singularity University Executive Course

I have been arguing for new cross disciplinary structures in Universities to better prepare us for the future.

It became apparent that the best way to make this happen was for me to create a novel course of new design. Thus, this course.

Presently, we know of no similar courses being presented elsewhere, except for the Disruptive Medicine course in Budapest.

Eventually it is our hope that hundreds of similar courses will begin appearing at Universities all over the world.

In a Post-Scarcity World of Abundance Medicine Will Be About Enhancement of Well People, Not

About Disease

May June 2012 issue of the Futurist, Reversing Aging “A Thousand Years Young”

We Need To Consider the Possibility of a Post-Scarcity

World, and What Medicine Would Be Like In Such A Singularity

Utopia

Moore’s Law Predicts Singularity

Moore’s Law Muted in Medicine!

Regulatory oversight that is completely focused on compliance. Discourages risk-taking and innovation.

Health care doesn't have the same financial reward system. Facebook isn't about to pay $1 billion for the latest hot-ticket item in imaging and informatics.

Security always trumps information sharing, and so better, faster linkages are constrained because of security concerns, most of which are bogus.

Moore’s Law Muted in Medicine!

The Microscope and the Megamacroscope-The small picture and the big picture.

We need to envision Medicine of the Future.

We need the mainstream public to regard the coming Technological Singularity as fact, not fiction.

We need to promote organized thinking about the future in Universities and beyond.

We need to think of all the ways to increase our reach from this one course to the world at large.

Suggestions on how to capture the imagination of the public to start everyone thinking about

these matters are most welcome.