kim brace redistrictingtech-chicago 09 · 2009. 10. 27. · kimball brace president election data...
TRANSCRIPT
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Redistricting Technology
By Kimball BraceElection Data Services, Inc.
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Legislators – Raise you handsKeep them raised if you were in Legislature in 2000?
Staff – Raise you handsKeep them raised if you were involved in redistricting
in 2001?
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Cameras do not make the pictures,
Photographers do
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What does Photography have to do with Redistricting?
“Computers are just a tool.”
George Meier
Staff Director,
Florida House Redistricting Cmte.
“Software can’t create a plan,
Humans do”
A wise man once said:
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History of Redistricting Technology• 1980
− Mainframe• PC’s were not invented until 1981
− Paper Maps• GIS was mainframe only• First PC GIS system created in 1983
− Developed by Jimmy Carter’s son− Blocks in urban areas
• (provided block numbers didn’t fall off map)• Enumeration Districts in rural areas
− Best commodities:• Large wall space• Lots of acetate
− Had to wait overnight to see impact of plan drafting
− Software cost: $60-100K− Created 10s of plans during legislative session
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History of Redistricting Technology• 1990
− Mini-computers and limited PCs• GDT’s GeoDistrict Program
− First spatial spreadsheet• Illinois – wired together two PCs to get a 25mhz system
large enough to show entire state− First TIGER files used
• Came out in 1989• Tied together the urban DIME files with USGS data in rural
areas• Had block level data for entire nation, first time
− Best commodities:• Large plotters
− No longer needed color pencils• Got to see color concentrations on computer
− Red areas vs blue areas− Minority concentration
• Lead to crazy looking district shapes− Got immediate (dependent upon processing speed)
response of district characteristics− Software cost $10K− Created 100s of plans during legislative session
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History of Redistricting Technology• 2000
− PCs widely used• Current software creators got their start in redistricting
− Caliper – Maptitude for Redistricting− Digital Engineering Corp
• Now “citygategis” -- autoBound− TIGER files still in use− Databases got bigger
• Multi-race categories ballooned race data from 12 columns in 1990 to 336 in 2000
• More election results• SF1 & 3 files came out quicker, added demographic
characteristics− Hispanic sub-groups− Citizenship
− Best Commodities:• Hard disk space
− Thank heavens if was getting cheaper• Colorization of political data
− Lead to crazy looking districts for political purposes− Very quick response on district characteristics− Software cost: $3K− Created ~1000s plans during legislative session
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History of Redistricting Technology• 2010
− PCs and networked GIS?• Fast speed of getting graphic images to monitor• Smaller devices to see maps
− Revise your glasses prescription now • Same two vendors
− TIGER files• Adjusted for ground truth
− Allows for aerial photographs to be used as background• Members finally see “that church on the corner”
• States can put in real precincts, no longer have to follow block boundaries
− Databases more complex• Statewide voter registration files• Election process changing as more absentee & early
votes being cast• Census ACS data can add more demographics sooner
− New ways to determine “communities of Interest”− How to Deal with 1, 3, & 5 year averages?
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History of Redistricting Technology2010
− Best Commodities• People• Support• ?
− Response time for district characteristics
• ?− Software costs – early indications:
~$10K• Inflation• Vendors realized more support needed
− How many plans will we create?• Heaven help us all
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Lessons Learned …. The Hard Way
• Don't design and build the plane as it's rolling down the runway.
• Start planning now.• The sooner you get behind, the
longer you have to catch-up• An error here, can sink your whole
ship• Database building -- Most
important activity of whole process
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Census Political
TIGER/Line® Files
Precinct and
Electoral District
Boundaries
Redistricting Summary
(PL 94-171) & ACS Files
Election Returns
and Voting Statistics
Tabular
Spatial
Redistricting Data Cube
© Election Data Services, Inc.
Source of data
Type
of
Dat
a
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New TIGER problems
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Election Returns Issues• Change in precinct configurations
over decade• Impact of voting equipment purchases
on precinct configurations− Dramatic reduction in number of
precincts− Will you have enough returns for
area?• Impact of “vote centers” on return
data− Don’t make Colorado’s mistake
before they changed their law to require data reported by precinct.
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Data Possibilities
• Availability of Statewide Voter Registration files−Geo-code down to
block.•Accuracy, Everyone
placed?− Is state archiving a copy
of file to correspond with election day?
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Turn-out
• Still don’t know total number of people who participated in 2004 general election.− Definitions of turn-out,
ballots cast, ballots counted.
903 Jurisdictions in 21 states
have same number of people turning out,
as that voted for President of the US
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Returns Issue• How is this data being reported in
your state?− Do your counties report all absentee
and/or early votes in a single county-wide precinct?
− Or− Do they distribute the votes out to the
precincts?
− You want the latter.
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Closing• Learn from History
− “If I’m going to make a mistake, let it be an original one.
− I haven’t learned anything if I make the same error that someone else already made”
− Marie Garber− Montgomery County, Md Elections Director
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Thank you
Kimball BracePresident
Election Data Services, Inc.6171 Emerywood Court
Manassas, VA 20112(703-580-7267 or 202-789-2004)
[email protected] or [email protected]
www.electiondataservices.com