killing zombie online campaign myths -- with data
DESCRIPTION
Presented by Steve Olson at Rootscamp '12, Washington DC, November 30, 2012TRANSCRIPT
ZOMBIE ONLINE POLITICS:Killing some online myths.
Steve OlsonSenior StrategistTrilogy Interactive
@SteveOlson
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HOUSEKEEPING
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Goals
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• Knit together folks who are interested in talking about -- and sharing -- data regarding online organizing.
• Present some data to help ground what we do in some form of reality.
•Discuss your myth-busting data
• Gather ideas for future research -- and sharing of results
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Ground Rules
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• Apologies in advance for the language. I only curse because I care about you.
• Feel free to interrupt.
• Email: [email protected]
• #Roots12 #ZombieRoots
• Your mileage may vary
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Agenda
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• Zombie Politics Defined
• Online Zombie Myths
• Discussion: Next Research Steps
• Discussion: Building a Learning Infrastructure
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WHO THE HELL ARE YOU?
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Steve Olson (@SteveOlson)
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• First Website: 1994 (first for pay: 1998)
• Field Organizer 2000
• 2002-2003 NYU Political Campaign Management Graduate School
• DCCC Online Operations (2003-2005)
• Planned Parenthood Fed. of Am. (2005-2007)
•Udall for Us All (2008)
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Trilogy Interactive (2012)
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ZOMBIE ONLINE POLITICS
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Zombie Online Politics: A Short History
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TheMonkeyCage.org
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Myth: The First
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Email is dead.
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Myth: The First
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Myth: The Second
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Candidates who “win” on Facebook win the race.
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Myth: The Second
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• Background: We were grumpy with all the “X is beating Y on Facebook” articles in 2010
• The Hypothesis: If organizing on Facebook was an indicator of the strength of the campaign as a whole, the “Like share” should predict the share of the vote.
• The Hedging: This was 2010 data, Facebook’s users are far more representative of the voting population now. Additionally, we only had likes in 2010 -- no “talking about this” or easy engagement metrics.
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Myth: The Second
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Figure 1: U.S. Senate races
But for gubernatorial races, Figure 2, we see only a very weak correlation, as represented by the red line sloping only slightly up as you move from left to right. The strength of the campaign's Facebook presence would only explain about 0.008 of the vote margin, according to these calculations.
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Win
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FB FAN Margin
FB-predicted outcome vs. actual outcome
Win MarginPredicted Win Margin
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Myth: The Second
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Figure 2: Gubernatorial Races
For our sample of U.S. House races, we observed a slight negative correlation, meaning a stronger Facebook presence was associated with a smaller margin of victory. Figure 3 shows predicted win margin decreasing as you move from left to right.
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FB-predicted outcome vs. actual outcome
Win MarginPredicted Win Margin
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Myth: The Second
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Figure 3: U.S. House Races
One thing all three graphs have in common is the wide scattering of the win margin plots. All three sets of data produced large standard deviations, which hints at the wide variety of factors in play in this election.
SUMMARY
Rather than seeing the statistical significance of the U.S. Senate data as validating the L.A. Times/Facebook argument, we think it comes closer to confirming that statistical significance is not the same as actual significance.
The related truism, that correlation does not imply causation, also comes into play here. Enthusiasm, for example, is widely thought to predict both Facebook following and election results. Since non-incumbent Republican candidates were more likely to benefit from enthusiasm in 2010, for example, it would stand to reason that their Senate candidates would acquire larger Facebook followings.
We at Trilogy are still enthusiastic about social media and strongly believe that smart use of tools like Facebook and Twitter is an essential component of a winning campaign. And we predict social media will be even more important in 2012. But we need to recognize social media for what they are: tools to move supporters up the engagement ladder, rather than a magic bullet that wins races. Ultimately, the return on investment is a far more complicated equation than a simple ratio of Likes to votes. After the midterms, Trilogy’s position is clear: Campaigns should be ready to embrace highly visible online tactics
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FB Fan Margin
FB-predicted outcome vs. actual outcome
Win MarginPredicted Win Margin
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Myth: The Second
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• Results: Slightly correlated for US Senate (13% of result); no correlation for gubernatorial, slightly negative (!) for House races.
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Myth: The Second (2012!)
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SLOTH!!!!
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Myth: The Third
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You Shouldn’t Ask for Money on Social Networks
(h/t @HNachem)
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Myth: The Third
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• Background: Statewide Ballot Initiative -- unusually large & active Facebook fan base
• The issue: Very active posting (3-5x per day; strong responsiveness, high quality posts), but reluctant to ask heavily. Preferred to “build the narrative”. Implicitly relying on passive fundraising via donation link on the page.
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Myth: The Third
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Passive•100 gifts
•$6,186.28
•$61.86 average
Active• 40 asks
• 1,064 gifts
• $73,317.50
• $68.91 average
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Myth: The Third
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$84,021.78 raised in six months on Facebook.
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Myth: The Third (kicker)
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$1,848,635.94 raised online 4.54% from Facebook
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Myth: The Fourth
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You Shouldn’t Ask People to Retweet You
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Myth: The Fourth
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Myth: The Fourth
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source: DanZarrella.com / Hubspot.com
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Myth: The Fourth
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source: DanZarrella.comHubspot.com
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BABY OTTER PILE!
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Myth: The Fifth
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Email the list this video: We’re going to raise a ton!
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Myth: The Fifth
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The Test: Does placing a lightbox callout AFTER a video raise more money than placing a video on a donation page?
• CONTROL
• Sent: 44,683
• Donations: 23
• Total Raised: $900 ($39.13 avg)
• TEST
• Sent: 44,875
• Donations: 69
• Total Raised: $2,346
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LET’S DO THIS.
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Stay in touch
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[email protected]@SteveOlson
facebook.com/stevenkolson
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