KGW/TheOregonian

SURVEY OF OREGON VOTERS

2014 General Election 28 OCT 14

Stuart Elway

206-264-1500 x1

elway@elwayresearch.com

.

KGW / OREGONIAN 2014 GENERAL ELECTION P.1 / 2

TOPLINE.docx 10/28/2014 ELWAY RESEARCH, INC.

SAMPLE 403 Likely Voters Voted in at least 1 of previous 4 elections + reported they were likely to vote in this election.

SAMPLE FRAME Registered Voter List

MARGIN OF SAMPLING ERROR ±5% at the 95% level of confidence

METHOD Telephone / Live Interviewers 19% conducted via cell phone

FIELD DATES October 26-27, 2014

CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT [1] 16% [2/] 20% [3] 23% [4] 22% [5] 19%

GENDER: MALE...49% FEMALE...51%

The data are presented here in the same order the questions were asked in the interview The figures in bold type are percentages of respondents who gave each answer. Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding.

1. First, which of these statements describes you: 48 I have already voted 48 I am certain to vote 4 I will probably vote

I may not vote this time. TERM [DK/NA] TERM

2. The first question is about the US Senate race. a) If you were filling out your ballot right now, would you vote for… b) Did you vote for…

49 Jeff Merkley, Democrat [MERK-ly] 30 Monica Wehby, Republican [WEBBY] 2 Mike Montchalin. Libertarian [mon-CHAY-len] 1 Christine Jean Lugo. Pacific Green Party 13 [UNDECIDED] 5 [WON'T SAY]

3. In the race for Governor, a) if you were filling out your ballot right now, would you vote for… b) did you vote for

45 John Kitzhaber, Democrat [KITZ-haw-ber] 38 Dennis Richardson, Republican 2 Aaron Auer, Constitution Party [HOUR] 9 [UNDECIDED] 5 [WON'T SAY]

KGW/OREGONIAN 2014 GENERAL ELECTION Page 2 / 2

ELWAY RESEARCH, INC.

4. In the last few weeks, there have been news stories about Governor Kitzhaber's fiancée, Cylvia Hayes. Have you …

63 Heard quite a lot about these stories 23 Heard about them, but haven't paid much attention 13 Not heard about these stories. SKIP TO Q5 1 [DK/NA] SKIP TO Q5

4.1. IF 1-2: Before you heard these stories, were you planning to vote for… [ASKED ONLY OF 346 RESPONDENTS WHO HAD HEARD NEWS STORIES]

49 John Kitzhaber [KITS-haw-ber] 37 Dennis Richardson 1 Aaron Auer [HOUR] 10 Or were you undecided 4 [WON'T SAY]

The next questions are about initiative that will be on the ballot. I will read you the ballot titles. [ROTATE Q5 – Q6 ]

5. Measure 91 Allows possession, manufacture, and sale of marijuana by or to adults, subject to state licensing, regulation, taxation. a)If you were filling out your ballot right now, would you vote For or Against Measure 91? b) Did you vote For or Against Measure 91?

44 FOR 46 AGAINST 7 [UNDECIDED 2 [WON'T SAY]

6. Measure 92 Requires food manufacturers, retailers to label "genetically engineered" foods as such; state, citizens may enforce. a) If you were filling out your ballot right now, would you vote For or Against Measure 92? b) Did you vote For or Against Measure 92?

42 FOR 48 AGAINST 7 [UNDECIDED] 2 [WON'T SAY]

7. I have just a few last questions for our statistical analysis. How old are you? 9 18-35 18 36-50 40 51-64 30 65+ 3 [NO ANSWER]

8. Are you registered as… 43 A Democrat 36 A Republican 14 Non Affiliated or No party 3 Another party 4 [NO ANSWER]

PROPRIETARY REPORT

CROSSTABULATION TABLES

READING THE CROSSTABULATION TABLES

The crosstabulations are presented in a "banner table" format. Categories of respondents (e.g., "Age," "Gender") are listed across the top of each page (the "banner"). There are several “banners”.

The questions asked in the survey are listed down the left margin. The key in the upper left corner of the table indicates which questions are found on each page.

The figures in each cell are raw numbers and percentages based on the number of respondents in the category at the head of the column.

By reading across the rows, one can compare answers to a question given by the different categories of respondents.

KGW/OREGONIAN: 2014 ELECTION

SENATE

TOTAL

VOTER

PARTYID

AREA

(N=)

Voted

Certain

Prob

Dem

Rep

Other

PDXMet

Other

TOTAL

(N=)

403 100

192 100

193 100

18 100

175 100

144 100

84 100

171 100

232 100

SENATE RACE

Montchalin

7 2%

3 2%

3 2%

1 6%

0 0%

3 2%

4 5%

3 2%

4 2%

Merkley

197 49%

90 47%

102 53%

5 28%

152 87%

14 10%

31 37%

98 57%

99 43%

Lugo

6 1%

3 2%

3 2%

0 0%

1 1%

2 1%

3 4%

3 2%

3 1%

Wehby

120 30%

64 33%

54 28%

2 11%

5 3%

95 66%

20 24%

39 23%

81 35%

Undec

53 13%

16 8%

28 15%

9 50%

13 7%

22 15%

18 21%

21 12%

32 14%

Wont Say

20 5%

16 8%

3 2%

1 6%

4 2%

8 6%

8 10%

7 4%

13 6%

ELWAY RESEARCH, INC. 28 OCT 2014

Pag

e 1

of 1

1

KGW/OREGONIAN: 2014 ELECTION

SENATE

TOTAL

AGEBAN

GENDER

(N=)

18-35

36-50

51-64

65+

Male

Female

TOTAL

(N=)

403 100

36 100

71 100

163 100

122 100

196 100

207 100

SENATE RACE

Montchalin

7 2%

1 3%

2 3%

2 1%

1 1%

7 4%

0 0%

Merkley

197 49%

12 33%

43 61%

78 48%

62 51%

77 39%

120 58%

Lugo

6 1%

2 6%

1 1%

2 1%

1 1%

5 3%

1 0%

Wehby

120 30%

9 25%

15 21%

53 33%

39 32%

74 38%

46 22%

Undec

53 13%

9 25%

7 10%

21 13%

13 11%

24 12%

29 14%

Wont Say

20 5%

3 8%

3 4%

7 4%

6 5%

9 5%

11 5%

ELWAY RESEARCH, INC. 28 OCT 2014

Pag

e 2

of 1

1

KGW/OREGONIAN: 2014 ELECTION

GOVERNOR

TOTAL

VOTER

PARTYID

AREA

(N=)

Voted

Certain

Prob

Dem

Rep

Other

PDXMet

Other

TOTAL

(N=)

403 100

192 100

193 100

18 100

175 100

144 100

84 100

171 100

232 100

GOV RACE

Richardson

154 38%

82 43%

68 35%

4 22%

15 9%

111 77%

28 33%

58 34%

96 41%

Auer

7 2%

2 1%

4 2%

1 6%

3 2%

1 1%

3 4%

0 0%

7 3%

Kitzaber

183 45%

82 43%

94 49%

7 39%

137 78%

19 13%

27 32%

91 53%

92 40%

Undec

38 9%

9 5%

25 13%

4 22%

14 8%

9 6%

15 18%

13 8%

25 11%

Wont Say

21 5%

17 9%

2 1%

2 11%

6 3%

4 3%

11 13%

9 5%

12 5%

[4] HAYES STORIES

A Lot

252 63%

125 65%

121 63%

6 33%

117 67%

85 59%

50 60%

122 71%

130 56%

Heard

94 23%

49 26%

40 21%

5 28%

35 20%

40 28%

19 23%

32 19%

62 27%

Not

51 13%

13 7%

31 16%

7 39%

21 12%

17 12%

13 15%

15 9%

36 16%

DKNA

6 1%

5 3%

1 1%

0 0%

2 1%

2 1%

2 2%

2 1%

4 2%

HEARD

346 100

174 100

161 100

11 100

152 100

125 100

69 100

154 100

192 100

[41] VOTE BEFORE

STORIES

Richardson

128 37%

74 43%

51 32%

3 27%

13 9%

92 74%

23 33%

48 31%

80 42%

Auer

3 1%

2 1%

1 1%

0 0%

1 1%

1 1%

1 1%

1 1%

2 1%

Kitzaber

168 49%

78 45%

88 55%

2 18%

125 82%

18 14%

25 36%

87 56%

81 42%

Undec

33 10%

11 6%

19 12%

3 27%

10 7%

10 8%

13 19%

13 8%

20 10%

Wont Say

14 4%

9 5%

2 1%

3 27%

3 2%

4 3%

7 10%

5 3%

9 5%

ELWAY RESEARCH, INC. 28 OCT 2014

Pag

e 3

of 1

1

KGW/OREGONIAN: 2014 ELECTION

GOVERNOR

TOTAL

AGEBAN

GENDER

(N=)

18-35

36-50

51-64

65+

Male

Female

TOTAL

(N=)

403 100

36 100

71 100

163 100

122 100

196 100

207 100

GOV RACE

Richardson

154 38%

8 22%

21 30%

69 42%

51 42%

92 47%

62 30%

Auer

7 2%

3 8%

2 3%

2 1%

0 0%

4 2%

3 1%

Kitzaber

183 45%

11 31%

42 59%

73 45%

56 46%

71 36%

112 54%

Undec

38 9%

11 31%

4 6%

9 6%

10 8%

18 9%

20 10%

Wont Say

21 5%

3 8%

2 3%

10 6%

5 4%

11 6%

10 5%

[4] HAYES STORIES

A Lot

252 63%

16 44%

34 48%

111 68%

81 66%

123 63%

129 62%

Heard

94 23%

8 22%

26 37%

31 19%

29 24%

42 21%

52 25%

Not

51 13%

12 33%

11 15%

18 11%

10 8%

28 14%

23 11%

DKNA

6 1%

0 0%

0 0%

3 2%

2 2%

3 2%

3 1%

HEARD

346 100

24 100

60 100

142 100

110 100

165 100

181 100

[41] VOTE BEFORE

STORIES

Richardson

128 37%

8 33%

16 27%

55 39%

45 41%

74 45%

54 30%

Auer

3 1%

2 8%

0 0%

1 1%

0 0%

2 1%

1 1%

Kitzaber

168 49%

9 38%

38 63%

66 46%

53 48%

67 41%

101 56%

Undec

33 10%

4 17%

5 8%

16 11%

7 6%

15 9%

18 10%

Wont Say

14 4%

1 4%

1 2%

4 3%

5 5%

7 4%

7 4%

ELWAY RESEARCH, INC. 28 OCT 2014

Pag

e 4

of 1

1

KGW/OREGONIAN: 2014 ELECTION

GOVERNOR

TOTAL

[4] HAYES STORIES

(N=)

A Lot

Heard

Not

DKNA

TOTAL

(N=)

403 100

252 100

94 100

51 100

6 100

GOV RACE

Richardson

154 38%

97 38%

39 41%

17 33%

1 17%

Auer

7 2%

3 1%

0 0%

4 8%

0 0%

Kitzaber

183 45%

122 48%

41 44%

18 35%

2 33%

Undec

38 9%

21 8%

7 7%

10 20%

0 0%

Wont Say

21 5%

9 4%

7 7%

2 4%

3 50%

HEARD

346 100

252 100

94 100

0 0%

0 0%

[41] VOTE BEFORE

STORIES

Richardson

128 37%

89 35%

39 41%

0 0%

0 0%

Auer

3 1%

3 1%

0 0%

0 0%

0 0%

Kitzaber

168 49%

125 50%

43 46%

0 0%

0 0%

Undec

33 10%

24 10%

9 10%

0 0%

0 0%

Wont Say

14 4%

11 4%

3 3%

0 0%

0 0%

ELWAY RESEARCH, INC. 28 OCT 2014

Pag

e 5

of 1

1

KGW/OREGONIAN: 2014 ELECTION

HAYES IMPACT

TOTAL

VOTER

PARTYID

AREA

(N=)

Voted

Certain

Prob

Dem

Rep

Other

PDXMet

Other

HEARD

346 100

174 100

161 100

11 100

152 100

125 100

69 100

154 100

192 100

Hayes Stories

Impact

JK>JK

154 45%

72 41%

80 50%

2 18%

118 78%

15 12%

21 30%

78 51%

76 40%

JK>DR

3 1%

2 1%

1 1%

0 0%

1 1%

1 1%

1 1%

1 1%

2 1%

JK>UND

6 2%

1 1%

4 2%

1 9%

3 2%

2 2%

1 1%

4 3%

2 1%

DR>DR

122 35%

71 41%

49 30%

2 18%

11 7%

90 72%

21 30%

46 30%

76 40%

DR>JK

6 2%

2 1%

4 2%

0 0%

3 2%

2 2%

1 1%

2 1%

4 2%

DR>UND

8 2%

3 2%

4 2%

1 9%

0 0%

6 5%

2 3%

4 3%

4 2%

AA>AA

2 1%

1 1%

1 1%

0 0%

1 1%

1 1%

0 0%

0 0%

2 1%

AA>UND

1 0%

1 1%

0 0%

0 0%

0 0%

0 0%

1 1%

0 0%

1 1%

UND>DR

1 0%

1 1%

0 0%

0 0%

0 0%

0 0%

1 1%

1 1%

0 0%

UND>AA

3 1%

1 1%

1 1%

1 9%

1 1%

1 1%

1 1%

1 1%

2 1%

UND>JK

8 2%

4 2%

4 2%

0 0%

4 3%

1 1%

3 4%

7 5%

1 1%

UND>UND

32 9%

15 9%

13 8%

4 36%

10 7%

6 5%

16 23%

10 6%

22 11%

Kitzaber Impact

SUPT SAME

154 45%

72 41%

80 50%

2 18%

118 78%

15 12%

21 30%

78 51%

76 40%

LOSE

9 3%

3 2%

5 3%

1 9%

4 3%

3 2%

2 3%

5 3%

4 2%

GAIN

14 4%

6 3%

8 5%

0 0%

7 5%

3 2%

4 6%

9 6%

5 3%

OPP SAME

169 49%

93 53%

68 42%

8 73%

23 15%

104 83%

42 61%

62 40%

107 56%

ELWAY RESEARCH, INC. 28 OCT 2014

Pag

e 6

of 1

1

KGW/OREGONIAN: 2014 ELECTION

HAYES IMPACT

TOTAL

AGEBAN

GENDER

(N=)

18-35

36-50

51-64

65+

Male

Female

HEARD

346 100

24 100

60 100

142 100

110 100

165 100

181 100

Hayes Stories

Impact

JK>JK

154 45%

8 33%

37 62%

60 42%

48 44%

59 36%

95 52%

JK>DR

3 1%

1 4%

0 0%

0 0%

2 2%

2 1%

1 1%

JK>UND

6 2%

0 0%

1 2%

4 3%

1 1%

2 1%

4 2%

DR>DR

122 35%

7 29%

16 27%

52 37%

43 39%

70 42%

52 29%

DR>JK

6 2%

0 0%

0 0%

4 3%

2 2%

4 2%

2 1%

DR>UND

8 2%

1 4%

1 2%

5 4%

0 0%

4 2%

4 2%

AA>AA

2 1%

1 4%

0 0%

1 1%

0 0%

1 1%

1 1%

AA>UND

1 0%

0 0%

1 2%

0 0%

0 0%

1 1%

0 0%

UND>DR

1 0%

1 4%

0 0%

0 0%

0 0%

1 1%

0 0%

UND>AA

3 1%

0 0%

0 0%

3 2%

0 0%

2 1%

1 1%

UND>JK

8 2%

1 4%

1 2%

2 1%

3 3%

4 2%

4 2%

UND>UND

32 9%

4 17%

3 5%

11 8%

11 10%

15 9%

17 9%

Kitzaber Impact

SUPT SAME

154 45%

8 33%

37 62%

60 42%

48 44%

59 36%

95 52%

LOSE

9 3%

1 4%

1 2%

4 3%

3 3%

4 2%

5 3%

GAIN

14 4%

1 4%

1 2%

6 4%

5 5%

8 5%

6 3%

OPP SAME

169 49%

14 58%

21 35%

72 51%

54 49%

94 57%

75 41%

ELWAY RESEARCH, INC. 28 OCT 2014

Pag

e 7

of 1

1

KGW/OREGONIAN: 2014 ELECTION

BALLOT MEASURES

TOTAL

VOTER

PARTYID

AREA

(N=)

Voted

Certain

Prob

Dem

Rep

Other

PDXMet

Other

TOTAL

(N=)

403 100

192 100

193 100

18 100

175 100

144 100

84 100

171 100

232 100

M-91

For

177 44%

86 45%

87 45%

4 22%

110 63%

30 21%

37 44%

82 48%

95 41%

Against

186 46%

95 49%

81 42%

10 56%

48 27%

103 72%

35 42%

72 42%

114 49%

Undec

30 7%

2 1%

24 12%

4 22%

15 9%

8 6%

7 8%

12 7%

18 8%

Wont Say

10 2%

9 5%

1 1%

0 0%

2 1%

3 2%

5 6%

5 3%

5 2%

M-92

For

169 42%

77 40%

84 44%

8 44%

105 60%

34 24%

30 36%

77 45%

92 40%

Against

195 48%

107 56%

80 41%

8 44%

55 31%

98 68%

42 50%

79 46%

116 50%

Undec

30 7%

1 1%

27 14%

2 11%

13 7%

10 7%

7 8%

12 7%

18 8%

Wont Say

9 2%

7 4%

2 1%

0 0%

2 1%

2 1%

5 6%

3 2%

6 3%

ELWAY RESEARCH, INC. 28 OCT 2014

Pag

e 8

of 1

1

KGW/OREGONIAN: 2014 ELECTION

BALLOT MEASURES

TOTAL

AGEBAN

GENDER

(N=)

18-35

36-50

51-64

65+

Male

Female

TOTAL

(N=)

403 100

36 100

71 100

163 100

122 100

196 100

207 100

M-91

For

177 44%

20 56%

39 55%

69 42%

47 39%

90 46%

87 42%

Against

186 46%

14 39%

24 34%

76 47%

66 54%

90 46%

96 46%

Undec

30 7%

2 6%

7 10%

12 7%

7 6%

9 5%

21 10%

Wont Say

10 2%

0 0%

1 1%

6 4%

2 2%

7 4%

3 1%

M-92

For

169 42%

22 61%

34 48%

71 44%

40 33%

64 33%

105 51%

Against

195 48%

11 31%

32 45%

77 47%

69 57%

115 59%

80 39%

Undec

30 7%

3 8%

4 6%

11 7%

10 8%

12 6%

18 9%

Wont Say

9 2%

0 0%

1 1%

4 2%

3 2%

5 3%

4 2%

ELWAY RESEARCH, INC. 28 OCT 2014

Pag

e 9

of 1

1

KGW/OREGONIAN: 2014 ELECTION

DEMOGRAPHICS

TOTAL

VOTER

PARTYID

AREA

(N=)

Voted

Certain

Prob

Dem

Rep

Other

PDXMet

Other

TOTAL

(N=)

403 100

192 100

193 100

18 100

175 100

144 100

84 100

171 100

232 100

[1] LIKELY TO

VOTE

Voted

192 48%

192 100

0 0%

0 0%

78 45%

73 51%

41 49%

80 47%

112 48%

Certain

193 48%

0 0%

193 100

0 0%

93 53%

64 44%

36 43%

86 50%

107 46%

Probably

18 4%

0 0%

0 0%

18 100

4 2%

7 5%

7 8%

5 3%

13 6%

AGE

18-35

36 9%

15 8%

19 10%

2 11%

11 6%

8 6%

17 20%

8 5%

28 12%

36-50

71 18%

35 18%

33 17%

3 17%

31 18%

23 16%

17 20%

33 19%

38 16%

51-64

163 40%

75 39%

80 41%

8 44%

77 44%

57 40%

29 35%

76 44%

87 38%

65+

122 30%

62 32%

56 29%

4 22%

54 31%

53 37%

15 18%

49 29%

73 31%

DKNA

11 3%

5 3%

5 3%

1 6%

2 1%

3 2%

6 7%

5 3%

6 3%

PARTY

Dem

175 43%

78 41%

93 48%

4 22%

175 100

0 0%

0 0%

88 51%

87 38%

Rep

144 36%

73 38%

64 33%

7 39%

0 0%

144 100

0 0%

51 30%

93 40%

NAV

57 14%

27 14%

26 13%

4 22%

0 0%

0 0%

57 68%

23 13%

34 15%

Other

13 3%

5 3%

6 3%

2 11%

0 0%

0 0%

13 15%

3 2%

10 4%

NA

14 3%

9 5%

4 2%

1 6%

0 0%

0 0%

14 17%

6 4%

8 3%

GENDER

Male

196 49%

95 49%

91 47%

10 56%

64 37%

80 56%

52 62%

84 49%

112 48%

Female

207 51%

97 51%

102 53%

8 44%

111 63%

64 44%

32 38%

87 51%

120 52%

ELWAY RESEARCH, INC. 28 OCT 2014

Pag

e 10

of 1

1

KGW/OREGONIAN: 2014 ELECTION

DEMOGRAPHICS

TOTAL

AGEBAN

GENDER

(N=)

18-35

36-50

51-64

65+

Male

Female

TOTAL

(N=)

403 100

36 100

71 100

163 100

122 100

196 100

207 100

[1] LIKELY TO

VOTE

Voted

192 48%

15 42%

35 49%

75 46%

62 51%

95 48%

97 47%

Certain

193 48%

19 53%

33 46%

80 49%

56 46%

91 46%

102 49%

Probably

18 4%

2 6%

3 4%

8 5%

4 3%

10 5%

8 4%

AGE

18-35

36 9%

36 100

0 0%

0 0%

0 0%

21 11%

15 7%

36-50

71 18%

0 0%

71 100

0 0%

0 0%

36 18%

35 17%

51-64

163 40%

0 0%

0 0%

163 100

0 0%

77 39%

86 42%

65+

122 30%

0 0%

0 0%

0 0%

122 100

56 29%

66 32%

DKNA

11 3%

0 0%

0 0%

0 0%

0 0%

6 3%

5 2%

PARTY

Dem

175 43%

11 31%

31 44%

77 47%

54 44%

64 33%

111 54%

Rep

144 36%

8 22%

23 32%

57 35%

53 43%

80 41%

64 31%

NAV

57 14%

9 25%

13 18%

21 13%

13 11%

37 19%

20 10%

Other

13 3%

6 17%

4 6%

3 2%

0 0%

7 4%

6 3%

NA

14 3%

2 6%

0 0%

5 3%

2 2%

8 4%

6 3%

GENDER

Male

196 100

21 100

36 100

77 100

56 100

196 100

0 0%

Female

207 100

15 100

35 100

86 100

66 100

0 0%

207 100

ELWAY RESEARCH, INC. 28 OCT 2014

Pag

e 11

of 1

1