key issue 3. why is population increasing at different rates in different countries? ◦ the...
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Chapter 2: PopulationKey Issue 3
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Why is Population Increasing at Different Rates in Different Countries?◦ The demographic transition◦ Population Pyramids◦ Countries in different stages of demographic
transition◦ Demographic transition and world population
growth
Key Issue 3
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Countries experience changes in natural increase, fertility and mortality rate at different times & at different rates◦ Differences in local culture and economic
conditions
Demographic Transition
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Several stages: beginning, middle & end◦ Stage 1: Low Growth◦ Stage 2: High Growth◦ Stage 3: Moderate Growth◦ Stage 4: Low Growth
Demographic Transition
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Describe each of the 4 stages
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Early civilization High levels of birth & death rates NIR of zero People depended on hunting & gathering for
food Access to food varied by year, increasing or
decreasing population
Stage 1: Low Growth
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Agricultural Revolution People domesticated plants & animals Created a stable source of food
◦ Population began to increase◦ Unfavorable harvests could still result in low food
production War and disease also affected population
growth
Stage 1: Low Growth
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No country remains in stage 1 today
Stage 1: Low Growth
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Due to Agricultural Revolution, population grew
Around 1750, pop. Inc 10x faster CDR decreased, CBR remains about the
same Margin causes increase in population (NIR)
Stage 2: High Growth
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Industrial Revolution Began in England, 1750
◦ Spread to Europe & North America Industrial technology (steam engine, mass
production, powered transportation) Led to wealth:
◦ Improved sanitation◦ Food & water supplies
Stage 2: High Growth
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Africa, Asia, Latin America◦ Did not reach stage 2 until 1950s+
Medical Revolution◦ Eliminated traditional causes of death◦ Longer & healthier lives◦ Ex: vaccines, penicillin & insecticides
Stage 2: High Growth
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Reached when CBR drops sharply Began in Europe & North America in 1900s Social customs cause CBR to drop
◦ People CHOOSE to have less children◦ Improved probability of infant survival
Economic changes:◦ Large families no longer needed for farms
Families moved to city jobs◦ Children become more expensive in urban areas
Stage 3: Moderate Growth
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Where are the sudden spikes of population?
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CBR is equal to CDR, NIR approaches ZERO Zero Population Growth (ZPG) A TFR approx 2.1 produces ZPG Immigration can affect ZPG, where TFR
needs to be even lower
Stage 4: Low Growth
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TFR of 2.1 or below is needed to reach ZPG. Observations?
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Social Customs changing population◦ Women entered work force◦ Shift away from farm jobs◦ Daycare for young children◦ Birth control◦ More wealth Inc. in leisure time, not suitable for
children
Stage 4: Low Growth
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Russia (Eastern Europe)◦ Negative NIR, deaths exceed births
Cause: Communist Rule◦ Indadequate pollution control◦ Pessimism about having children
Stage 4: Low Growth
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Countries that pass through all four stages have completed a cycle
Stage 1: ZPG to Stage 4: ZPG Stage 1: high CBR & CDR Stage 4: low CBR & CDR
Demographic Transition
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Good Case Study:◦ accurate records of population (past 1000yrs)◦ No boundary changes◦ Not greatly affected by migration
The Demographic Transition in England
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Explain the Demographic Transition◦ Define each stage◦ Explain what leads to each transition to next
stage◦ Provide examples
Writing Assignment
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Stage of Demographic Transition determines what population of a country looks like
Percentage of each age group Gender distribution
Population Pyramids
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A bar graph that displays a country’s population by age and gender
◦ Percentage of total populationin 5yr age groups, youngest at bottom, oldest at top
◦ Percentage of males, females represented by length of bars
Population Pyramids
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CBR determines shape of pyramid Stage 2 country: high growth
◦ High CBR, large number of children◦ Broad base of pyramid (wide at bottom)
Stage 4 country: low growth◦ Large number of older people◦ Broad top of pyramid
Population Pyramids
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Dependency ratio: number of people who are too young or too old to work, compared to people in productive years
Dependents are: 0-14 and 65+yrs old Determine dependency ratio of classroom
Age Distribution
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Stage 2◦ 50% of population are dependents (1:2)◦ Young dependents outnumber elder dependents
10:1 Stage 4
◦ 33% of population are dependents (1:1)◦ Amt of young dependents = Elder dependents
How will amount and age of dependents impact a society?
Age Distribution
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Sub-Sahara Africa & Stage 2 (high-growth) countries◦ Large percentage of pop. under age 15◦ Strains country’s resources
Hospitals, schools, daycare◦ Job scarcity post high school
Age Distribution
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Percentage of elders increases as countries move towards Stage 4 of Dem. Trans.◦ Declining CBRs◦ Improved medical care ◦ Higher incomes
Europe: 65+ is 16% of population Sub-Saharan Africa: 65+ is 3% of population
Age Distribution
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United States, Canada, Japan, Europe◦ More than ¼ of gov’t expenditures go to health care, Social
Security & programs for older populations
Stage 3 & 4 countries◦ Higher population of elderly◦ Causes higher CDR
What concerns are there with our aging population?
Age Distribution
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Number of males per hundred females in a population
Slightly more males born than female Males have higher death rates Europe & North America 95: 100 (m:f) Rest of world is 102:100 (m:f)
What could be the reason?
Sex Ratio
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Read newspaper article and answer questions
Life Expectancy Shrinks for Poor People in the US
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United States◦ Under age 15yrs old, 105:100 (m:f)◦ Women outnumber men around age 40◦ Why????◦ 58% of population 65+ are women
Sex Ratio
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LDCs High mortality rate during childbirth Larger percentage of young people (males
outnumber females) Lower percentage of older people (females
are more numerous)
Sex Ratio
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What could explain these differences in age and gender throughout the United States?
Population Pyramids
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What do you know about birth rates for African-Americans and Hispanics?
Similar Population PyramidsWhy???
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What do we know about these locations? How does that help explain the age distribution?
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Stage 1: low growth: none Stage 2: high growth: Cape Verde Stage 3: moderate growth: Chile Stage 4: low growth: Denmark
Countries in Different Stages of Demographic Transition
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12 small islands off the coast of W Africa Famine kept it in Stage 1 until 1950 Antimalarial campaign moved it to Stage 2
Cape Verde: Stage 2
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Shifted from rural to urban Moved from Stage 1 to 2 with medical
advancements (smallpox, malaria) Moved to Stage 3 because of gov’t family
planning initiatives, 1966◦ (prevented abortions for unwanted births)
Reversed family planning policies, 1970
Chileans continue to have large families Large Catholic population
Chile: Stage 3
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Similar to England’s trends in population Since 1970s, CBR = CDR…ZPG Population is only increasing from
immigration
Denmark: Stage 4
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