1

NRC Meteorologists Role in Support of the Headquarters Operations Center During an

International EventKevin Quinlan

Physical Scientist, NROU.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

June 27 - 29, 2011Oak Brook, IL

Nuclear Utility Meteorological Data Users Group (NUMUG)

Purpose of Presentation

• To explain the typical role of an NRC Meteorologist in the Headquarters Operations Center (HOC).

• To describe the unique challenges of the meteorologists while supporting an international event.

2

Outline of Presentation

• Typical role of an NRC Meteorologists in the HOC • Summary of Events in Japan• Initiation of Meteorological Support• Unique Challenges of International Support• Creating and Verifying Weather Forecasts• Determining Wind Speed and Direction at time of

Large Releases

3

Typical Role of HOC Meteorologist

• Gather available meteorological observations and forecast data

• Update RASCAL file with most up-to-date forecast and observation data

• Provide short and long-term forecasts to the Protective Measures Team (PMT) lead

• Evaluate the presence or absence of local meteorological phenomenon

4

Location of Events and Information Sources

5

Fukushima City

Sendai

Fukushima Dai-ichi

Fukushima Dai-ni

Onahama

Tokyo

Summary of Events

Friday March 11th @ 2:36 pm local• Magnitude 9.0 earthquake 231 miles northeast of Tokyo.• Quake is fifth largest in the world (since 1900).• Earthquake generated a 14m Tsunami

Earthquake• Automatic Shutdown of the 3 Operating Units at Fukushima

Dai-ichi• Offsite Power Lost• Initial indications were that Emergency Diesels operated

14m Tsunami (less than 1 hour later)• All Emergency Back-up Power Lost• 8-10 hours later Station Batteries Depleted 6

7

Initiation of Support by NRC HOC• The U.S. NRC Headquarters Operations Center (HOC) was

activated to provide 24 hour support to the American Embassy in Japan and American citizens and servicemen in the region.

• Within the HOC organization, the NRC Meteorologists support the PMT, whose role is to advise the Executive Team (ET) on– the potential consequences of an event– the status of protective actions underway– any conditions that might impede necessary protective actions

Unique Challenges of International Support

• Determining availability of near real-time onsite met data• Identify offsite sources of met data• Familiarization of foreign country on-line data resources• Familiarization with local and regional topographic

settings• Language barriers and time zone conversions• Determining operating status of nearby observation

stations• Establish international agency contacts through liaisons

8

9

Initial Sources of Observation Data• Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) hourly recording

stations in Sendai, Onahama, and Fukushima City

Source: Adapted from Japan Meteorological Agency http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/menu.html

Sendai

Onahama

Fukushima Fukushima Dai-ichiDai-ichi

Fukushima Fukushima CityCity

10

Initial Sources of Observation Data (Cont.)

Hourly Observations

for Sendai Meteorological Observatory

Source: Japan Meteorological Agency http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/menu.html

11

Initial Sources of Forecast Data

• Short-term forecasts from the National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC)– 5 km resolution Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF)

model simulations initialized from Global Forecast System (GFS) data.

• 45-km resolution GFS output• JMA forecasts for Sendai, Onahama, and

Fukushima City• Forecast and observation websites

– Weather Underground, Weather Channel, Wind Finder

Updating Forecasts

• Received forecast from NARAC every 6 – 12 hours

• Compared hourly WRF output against other available sources for consistency

• Updated RASCAL file to add new forecast data• Created visual forecast tools (e.g., wind roses,

directional arrows)

12

13

Example of Visual Forecast Tool

Long Range Forecast Tools

14

Daily forecast from JMA (Above). Hourly forecast from Wind Finder based off GFS (Right). 45-km GFS output from Wind Finder (Below).

Onsite Data from Fukushima Dai-ni

15

Wind Dir Wind Speed

Note: Observations typically in 10-minute intervals

Source: Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO)

16

Onsite Data from Fukushima Dai-ni vs. NARAC WRF output (March 16-24)Wind Direction

17

Onsite Data from Fukushima Dai-ni vs. NARAC WRF output (March 16-24) Wind Speed

Large Release Events

18Source of Radiation Data: TEPCO

Aerial Monitoring Flight Data

19Source: http://blog.energy.gov/content/situation-japan/

Determining Wind Speed and Direction at time of Large Releases• NRC Meteorologists asked to determine the wind speed

and direction during the timeframe of the largest releases.

• Gap in RASCAL meteorological data file between 3/13/11 at 1000 JST and 3/14/11 at 1700 JST (total of 31 hours)

• NRC staff used available hourly data from Weather Underground for Sendai to fill in part of the gap.

20

21

N

W

S

E

N

22

Summary of Meteorologist Support• Presented with a variety of challenges outside of normal

responsibilities– Determining functioning observation sites – Determining availability of onsite met data– Language barriers– Working with HOC international liaisons to answer inquiries

• Supported PMT Lead and Dose Analysts with current forecasts and recent historical data

• Collected, graphed, and analyzed radiation and meteorological data from multiple sources

23

Summary (Cont.)

• Meteorologists role in support of HOC was just one of many moving parts.

• Many sources of public information were provided by government entities.

• NRC is committed to a systematic and methodical review of Fukushima events and response.

24

Thank You!

Questions?

25

Online ResourcesWeather Undergroundwww.weatherunderground.com

Weather Channelwww.weather.com

Wind Finderwww.windfinder.com

Japan Meteorological Agencywww.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.html

DOE Bloghttp://blog.energy.gov/content/situation-japan/

TEPCOhttp://www.tepco.co.jp/en/index-e.html 26