KENYA

By Sir David Ochieng

www.davidochiengfoundation.net

KENYA:

Colonized by British Became independent in 1963 Member of many international organizations including the

Commonwealth of Nations, the African Union and the United Nations

Economy: GDP: $61.65 billion Unemployment rate: 40% Industries: small-scale consumer goods (plastic, furniture, batteries,

textiles, clothing, soap, cigarettes, flour), agricultural products, horticulture, oil refining; aluminum, steel, lead; cement, commercial ship repair, tourism

KENYA CONTINUED…

Population: 39,002,772 people Ages Structure:

• 0-14 years: 42.3% • 15-64 years: 55.1% • 65 years and over: 2.6% • 12,200,000 between age 10-24 (about 31%)

Ethnic Groups: Kikuyu 22%, Luhya 14%, Luo 13%, Kalenjin 12%, Kamba 11%, Kisii 6%, Meru 6%, other African 15%, non-African (Asian, European, and Arab) 1%

Religious Groups: Protestant 45%, Roman Catholic 33%, Muslim 10%, indigenous beliefs 10%, other 2%

BACKGROUND KENYAN POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT

Before IndependenceSecret Kikuyu guerrilla group known as Mau Mau begins violent campaign against white settlers. State of emergency declared. Kenyatta arrested. 1953 - Kenyatta charged with management of Mau Mau and jailed. KAU banned. 1960 - State of emergency ends. Britain announces plans to prepare Kenya for majority African rule. Kenya African national Union (Kanu) formed by Tom Mboya and Oginga Odinga. Independence1961 - Kenyatta freed and assumes presidency of Kanu. 1963 - Kenya gains independence, with Kenyatta as prime minister. 1964 - Republic of Kenya formed. Kenyatta becomes president and Odinga vice-president. 1966 - Odinga, a Luo, leaves Kanu after ideological split, forms rival Kenya People's Union (KPU).

1969 - Assassination of government minister Tom Mboya sparks ethnic unrest. KPU banned and Odinga arrested. Kanu only party to contest elections.

1978 - Kenyatta dies in office, succeeded by Vice-President Daniel arap Moi.

1982 June - Kenya officially declared a one-party state by National Assembly.

PERCENT OF VOTES FOR PRINCIPLE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES PER PROVINCE IN 1992

Nairob

i

Coast NE Eastern

Centra

l

Rift Valley

Weste

rn

Nyanz

a

Moi 16 62 72 37 02 71 39 15

Matiba 44 11 11 10 60 16 38 01

Kibaki 18 10 05 50 35 07 02 06

Odinga 20 14 08 02 01 05 17 60

1969 - Assassination of government minister Tom Mboya sparks ethnic unrest. KPU banned and Odinga arrested. Kanu only party to contest elections. 1978 - Kenyatta dies in office, succeeded by Vice-President Daniel arap Moi. 1982 June - Kenya officially declared a one-party state by National Assembly.

KENYA CONT’D1987 - Opposition groups suppressed. International criticism of political arrests and human rights abuses.

 Multi-party elections

1991 December - Special conference of Kanu agrees to introduce a multi-party political system

1992 December - Moi re-elected in multi-party elections. Kanu wins strong majority.  

1994 - Odinga dies.

1997 - Demonstrations calling for democratic reform. World Bank withholds disbursement of $5bn in structural adjustment credit.

1997 December - Moi wins further term in widely-criticised elections. His main opponents are former vice-president Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga, son of Oginga

Odinga.

2001 - Ethnic tensions culminate in thousands several violent clashes. In December flee and several people are killed in rent battles involving Nubian and Luo

communities in Nairobi's Kibera slum district.

2004 March-July - Long-awaited draft of new constitution completed. Document requires parliament's approval and proposes curbing president's powers and

creating post of prime minister. But deadline for enactment is missed.

2004 July-August - Food crisis, caused by crop failures and drought, dubbed "national

Parliament approves a draft constitution after days of violent protests in Nairobi over aspects of the draft which

demonstrators say give too much power to in the president's hands.

2005 November-December - Voters reject a proposed new constitution in what is seen as a protest against President Kibaki. The president replaces his cabinet;

some nominees reject

2006 April - Visiting Chinese President Hu Jintao signs a contract allowing China to prospect for oil off the Kenyan coast. His African tour has focused on trying to

satisfy China's hunger for energy and raw materials.

2007 December - Presidential elections. President Kibaki claims victory and a second term in office, prompting a wave of unrest. Opposition says polls were

rigged.

Opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) wins most seats in the parliamentary election.

 

 

 

 

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS 1997

Regions Kibaki Moi Ngilu Odinga Wamalw

a

Total 31.0% 40.6% 7.9% 10.8% 8.2%

Central Province 89.3% 5.6% 3.1% 0.7% 0.3%

Coast Province 12.8% 63.4% 9.4% 6.1% 2.8%

Eastern Province 28.5% 35.5% 33.6% 0.7% 0.7%

Nairobi Province 43.9% 20.6% 10.9% 16.3% 6.8%

North Eastern 21.2% 73.2% 0.4% 0.3% 4.6%

Nyanza 15.1% 23.6% 1.7% 56.8% 1.6%

Rift Valley

Province

20.9% 69.5% 07% 2.2% 6.2%

Western

Province

1.4% 44.9% 0.5% 1.9% 48.2%

KENYA’S ELECTIONS

Background Dec 27, 2007 10th general election/4th multiparty Flaws, irregularities 1992,1997, 2002 9 presidential candidates/2,547 parliamentary/15,331 local government Highly contested PNU and ODM Elect president/ parliament/local government

Koffi Anan, Mwai Kibaki, Raila Odinga

Candidate nominationsMore than 100 registered parties• Only 9 party candidates certified,

one female• No provision for independent

candidates• Pres nominations well conducted• Parliamentary , civic chaotic,

interference by party HQ

Voter Registration• Registration record high 2007• 14 million voters or 82% total eligible voter population• Continuous registration system• Discrimination, multiple registration, • 1.2 million names of deceased

Voter education• Electorate to understand process• Anti-violence campaign• Kimya campaign for high voter turnout

CAMPAIGN KENYA• Free and fair environment• Robust language, strong ethnic

polarization, some clashes• Kibaki (PNU) Kikuyu, Embu, Meru

communities• Political Platform=social economic record• Raila Odinga (ODM) Luo, luhya, kalenjin• Political platform=political, socio-

economic reform, devolution of power

Campaign financing• Undisclosed, wealthy donors, int’l donors,

abuse of incumbency• Distribution of money, goods, etc

Media Environment• Freedom of speech respected• High level coverage during preparation, campaign• Bias KBC coverage 76% for PNU• Hate speech• Radio, sms, internet, • “settlers’, “lets claim our land”, “people of milk cut grass”aimed at kikuyu• “Lazy”, “don’t work”, “don’t pay rent”, “murderer” Luo

ELECTION DAYVoter turnout Record high, millions of 1st time voters, government ID 20,000 polling stationsElection administration ECK, party agents, observers verify ballot

Boxes Voter’s name verified against voter

register 3 ballots, pre-stamped, Election observation 17,000 domestic, 62 organizations EU, COMESA, EAC, IRI, Pan-African Movement, KEDOF Observer comments Peaceful & orderly mannerIrregularities Missing polling staff Late delivery election material Secrecy of votes breached Group voting

FINAL RESULTS KENYA ELECTIONS 2007

Counting & Tallying

• Polling stationsconstituency levelECK

• Irregularities• Returning officers in 21 constituencies• Turnover 100% in Kibaki strong hold

after re-vote

Announcement• ECK legalized to announce results• Parliamentary announced 12/29presidential withheldPNU losses• PNU, ODM pre-announce victoryclashes• Dec. 30 ECK announcement of winner 47% to 43%Chaos1,000

dead, 500,000 IDP

RESULTS IN KENYA’S ELECTIONSResults announcementECK legalized to announce resultsParliamentary announced 12/29presidential withheldPNU lossesPNU, ODM pre-announce victoryclashesDec. 30 ECK announcement of winner 47% to 43%Chaos1,000 dead, 500,000 IDP

KRIEGLER REPORT“Countries such as Mexico, where there has been radical

electoral reform comparatively recently, have established a special electoral tribunal with

extensive power and exclusive jurisdiction in relation to elections. This may be costly but

has the great benefit of speed and special expertise. Then again, South Africa opted for a

special electoral court with exclusive and final jurisdiction consisting of three senior

members of the judiciary who ordinarily continue with their routine work but are on

standby to deal with electoral matters on an urgent and prioritised basis. Expedition has

thus been ensured with the prospect of some degree of specialist knowledge.”

ONE MAN HALF VOTE?

http://www.uiowa.edu/~electdis/Kenya.htm

“Most districts have populations that are well above or below the mean population of 103,000.”

“the present system awarded KANU a higher proportion of seats (51%) than its proportion of the vote (43%)”

http://www.mapsofworld.com/kenya/kenya-ethnic-groups.html

“the current system favors the regions that support the ruling party, KANU, and discriminates against the regions that support opposition parties. The extent to which this argument is valid is illustrated by the results of the 1997 election. “

THE SYSTEM MATTERS

http://www.uiowa.edu/~electdis/Kenya.htm

NEW CONSTITUTION, NO NEW SYSTEMPart 2—Composition and membership of Parliament

Membership of the Senate

125. (1) The Senate shall consist of—

(a) members elected one each by the counties, each county

assembly acting as an electoral college;

 

Membership of the National Assembly

126. (1) The National Assembly shall consist of—

(a) members elected one each by the constituencies as may be provided by law;

Election of State President

162. (1) The election of the State President shall be by direct adult suffrage

through a secret ballot and shall be conducted in accordance with this

Constitution and any Act of Parliament regulating presidential

elections.