kentucky population, housing, and jobs: present and future
TRANSCRIPT
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Matt Ruther
Department of Urban and Public Affairs University of Louisville
Kentucky State Data Center
Kentucky Population, Housing, and Jobs:
Present and Future
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Current Demographics
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Total population (2014): 4,413,457
Ranks 26th in the United States – just behind Louisiana and South Carolina, just ahead of Oregon and Oklahoma
Approximately 3% of the population lives in group quarters (e.g., prisons, dorms, military, senior facilities)
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Population
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Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Population Estimates
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US: 12.4% KY: 8.0%
Black Population
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US: 17.1% KY: 3.3%
Hispanic Population
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Population Estimates
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US: 12.9% KY: 3.2%
Foreign Born Population
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 American Community Survey
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41%
7%
32% 15%
3% 1%
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Foreign Born Origin
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Population Estimates
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US: 28.5% KY: 21.0%
College Graduates
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 American Community Survey
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US: $53,046 KY: $42,610
Median Household Income
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 American Community Survey
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US: 5.5% KY: 5.2%
Unemployment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2015
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US: 62.9% KY: 57.8%
Labor Force Participation Rates
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 American Community Survey
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Demographic Change
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1970-1980 1980-1990
2000-2010 1990-2000
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Net Migration 1970-2010
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In the last few decades, migration within Kentucky has followed the national trend (suburbanization)
Although Kentucky has a more rural population (24%) than the U.S. as a whole (6.3%), this population is declining
The majority of population growth in the state is occurring in the metro areas
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Population Change
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US: 3.2% KY: 1.7%
Population Change 2010-2014
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census, 2014 Population Estimates
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US: 3.2% KY: 1.7%
Population Change 2010-2014
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census, 2014 Population Estimates
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Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Population Estimates
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Metropolitan Area Growth 2010-2014
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Recent Sociodemographic Trends
2000 2009-2013 Total Population 4,041,769 4,361,333
Total Housing Units 1,750,927 1,930,158
Total Households 1,590,647 1,694,996
Vacancy Rate 9.2% 12.2%
Owner Occupancy Rate 70.7% 68.4%
Median HH Income ($2013) 47,084 43,036
Poverty Rate 15.8% 18.8%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census, 2009-2013 American Community Survey
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Recent Sociodemographic Trends
2000 2009-2013 Non-Hispanic White 89.8% 86.1%
Non-Hispanic Black 7.2% 7.7%
Hispanic 1.4% 3.1%
Foreign Born 2.0% 3.3%
High School Dropout 25.9% 15.9%
College Educated 17.1% 21.5%
Graduate Degree 6.9% 8.8%
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.9% 57.8%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census, 2009-2013 American Community Survey
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Demographic Projections
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Annualized Population Change, 2010-2025
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Source: Kentucky State Data Center Population Projections
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Annualized Population Change, 2010-2050
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Source: Kentucky State Data Center Population Projections
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Projected Population Growth, 2010-2050
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Population, 2010
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Source: Kentucky State Data Center Population Projections
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Projected Population, 2050
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Source: Kentucky State Data Center Population Projections
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Households, 2010
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Source: Kentucky State Data Center Population Projections
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Projected Households, 2050
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Source: Kentucky State Data Center Population Projections
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Changing Household Size
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970-2010 Decennial Censuses
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Changing Household Size
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970-2010 Decennial Censuses
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Changing Household Size
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970-2010 Decennial Censuses
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Changing Household Size
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970-2010 Decennial Censuses
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Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census
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US: 37.2
Median Age
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Median Age Trend
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Kentucky Population Pyramid, 2000
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Kentucky Population Pyramid, 2010
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Kentucky Population Pyramid, 2025
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Kentucky Population Pyramid, 2050
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Aging of the population
Continued increase in levels of educational attainment
Growth in the foreign born population
Continued migration from urban areas to suburban areas – offset by limited migration from suburban/rural areas to urban areas
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Demographic Projection Summary
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Employment Projections
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Current Industry Employment Distribution
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, February 2015
Industry Jobs % of Total LQ vs. U.S.
Manufacturing 236,100 12.50% 1.43
Mining and Logging 15,700 0.80% 1.31
Government 322,200 17.10% 1.10
Trade, Transportation, & Utilities 383,200 20.30% 1.07
Leisure & Hospitality 187,700 10.00% 0.93
Education & Health Services 266,100 14.10% 0.91
Construction 76,300 4.00% 0.90
Other Services 63,600 3.40% 0.85
Financial Activities 91,100 4.80% 0.84
Professional & Business Services 216,800 11.50% 0.83
Information 25,500 1.40% 0.69
Total 1,884,300 100.00%
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Current Occupational Employment Distribution
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, February 2015
Occupation Jobs % of Total LQ vs. U.S. Production 191,520 10.6% 1.60
Transportation and Material Moving 171,800 9.5% 1.39 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 122,320 6.8% 1.16
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 80,940 4.5% 1.15 Food Preparation and Serving Related 168,500 9.3% 1.03
Community and Social Service 26,090 1.4% 1.01 Healthcare Support 50,980 2.8% 0.97 Education, Training, and Library 108,130 6.0% 0.96
Construction and Extraction 67,720 3.7% 0.96 Office and Administrative Support 273,420 15.1% 0.94
Management 82,000 4.5% 0.91 Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 52,700 2.9% 0.90
Sales and Related 172,370 9.5% 0.90 Personal Care and Service 46,600 2.6% 0.84 Protective Service 35,650 2.0% 0.81
Architecture and Engineering 23,330 1.3% 0.72 Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 4,280 0.2% 0.72
Business and Financial Operations 65,090 3.6% 0.71
Legal 9,510 0.5% 0.68
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 15,490 0.9% 0.65 Life, Physical, and Social Science 9,490 0.5% 0.62 Computer and Mathematical 30,090 1.7% 0.59
Total 1,808,010 100.00%
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Employment Growth by Industry, 2012-2022
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, KY Department for Workforce Investment
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Employment Growth by Occupation, 2012-2022
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, KY Department for Workforce Investment
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Current Industry Employment Distribution
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, February 2015
Area Development District 2010
Employment 2020
Employment Change
2010-2020 % Change
2010-2010 FIVCO 51,514 58,998 7,484 14.5% USA 14.3% Lincoln Trail 96,368 110,015 13,647 14.2% Kentucky River 34,735 39,510 4,775 13.8% Cumberland Valley 78,745 89,254 10,509 13.4% Northern KY 194,533 219,880 25,347 13.0% Big Sandy 53,284 60,199 6,915 13.0% KIPDA 497,697 558,020 60,323 12.1% KY 1,895,402 2,123,551 228,149 12.0% Gateway/Buffalo Trace 47,942 53,704 5,762 12.0% Barren River 120,037 134,090 14,053 11.7% Bluegrass 371,833 414,272 42,439 11.4% Lake Cumberland 79,085 87,981 8,896 11.3% Pennyrile 86,182 95,218 9,036 10.5% Green River 91,727 101,214 9,487 10.3% Purchase 91,720 101,196 9,476 10.3%
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Occupational Growth, 2012-2022
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, KY Department for Workforce Investment
Largest Numeric Growth
Occupation 2012 2022 Change Percent
Registered Nurses 49,640 59,620 9,980 20.1%
Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 52,330 59,420 7,090 13.5%
Customer Service Representatives 32,720 37,130 4,410 13.5%
Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 30,510 34,780 4,270 14.0%
Retail Salespersons 56,420 60,400 3,980 7.0%
Orderlies 25,350 29,250 3,900 15.3%
General and Operations Managers 26,320 29,990 3,670 14.0%
Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers 21,700 24,810 3,110 14.3%
Personal Care Aides 7,340 10,340 3,000 40.8%
Medical Assistants 7,920 10,850 2,930 37.0%
Largest Percentage Growth
Occupation 2012 2022 Change Percent
Commercial Pilots 240 400 160 63.8%
Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Clerks 1,340 2,140 800 59.2%
Rotary Drill Operators, Oil and Gas 170 260 90 53.6%
Home Health Aides 3,870 5,940 2,070 53.3%
Medical Equipment Repairers 1,090 1,660 570 51.8%
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Occupational Loss, 2012-2022
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, KY Department for Workforce Investment
Largest Numeric Loss
Occupation 2012 2022 Change Percent
Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers 24,420 20,670 -3,750 -15.4%
Postal Service Mail Sorters, Processors, and Operators 1,620 1,070 -550 -34.0%
Data Entry Keyers 4,580 4,140 -440 -9.5%
Postal Service Clerks 840 500 -340 -40.5%
Extruding/Drawing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders 1,540 1,260 -280 -18.0%
Molding, Coremaking, and Casting Machine Operators 2,690 2,460 -230 -8.5%
Information and Record Clerks, All Other 2,890 2,660 -230 -7.7%
Extraction Workers, All Other 1,300 1,110 -190 -14.6%
Roof Bolters, Mining 1,170 1,000 -170 -14.3%
Hazardous Materials Removal Workers 400 240 -160 -39.0%
Largest Percentage Loss
Occupation 2012 2022 Change Percent
Gas Plant Operators 280 160 -120 -43.0%
Postal Service Clerks 840 500 -340 -40.5%
Hazardous Materials Removal Workers 400 240 -160 -39.0%
Postal Service Mail Sorters, Processors, and Operators 1,620 1,070 -550 -34.0%
Coil Winders, Tapers, and Finishers 250 190 -60 -26.6%
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Matt Ruther [email protected]
Kentucky State Data Center http://ksdc.louisville.edu
Kentucky Population, Housing, and Jobs:
Present and Future
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