kellogg in packaged foods

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KELLOGG CO IN PACKAGED FOOD (WORLD)

November 2011


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Euromonitor International PASSPORT 2PACKAGED FOOD: KELLOGG CO

Disclaimer

Much of the information in thisbriefing is of a statistical nature and,while every attempt has been madeto ensure accuracy and reliability,Euromonitor International cannot beheld responsible for omissions orerrors.

Figures in tables and analyses arecalculated from unrounded data andmay not sum. Analyses found in thebriefings may not totally reflect thecompanies' opinions, reader

discretion is advised.

Kellogg is the global leader in

breakfast cereals with an

enviable portfolio of brands. The

company, however, has faced

some challenges in 2010/2011

with a series of recalls and

supply disruptions. These

incidents have forced Kellogg to

re-evaluate its cost-cutting

strategy. The company,

however, still faces rising input

costs as well as a highly

competitive packaged food retail

channel as both producers and

retailers attempt to offer cash-

strapped consumers good

value.

ScopeSCOPE OF THE REPORT

Packaged Food 2011

US$2,199,266 mn

Biscuits

US$75,212 mn

Breakfast Cereals

US$29,411mn

Meal Replacement

US$7,373 mn

Snack Bars

US$11,013 mn

Frozen Processed Food

US$111,946 mn
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STRATEGIC EVALUATION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

MARKET ASSESSMENT

BREAKFAST CEREALS

SNACK BARS

MEAL REPLACEMENT

FROZEN PROCESSED FOOD

BISCUITS

BRAND STRATEGYOPERATIONS

RECOMMENDATIONS


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Kellogg Co is involved in the manufacture and

distribution of a variety of packaged food focusedmainly on breakfast cereals. Its iconic Kellogg's CornFlakes was first developed in 1895 and created thebreakfast cereals category.

Kellogg Co sells its products in over 180 countriesand manufactures in 18. Its has a strong portfolio ofbrands in breakfast cereals including Rice Krispies,Coco Pops, Frosted Flakes and Special K. The

company has both global and regional brands andhas over the years expanded some regional brandssuch as Tresor. Tresor was re-branded and launchedin the UK market in 2010 as Krave and marketed toyoung adults.

Kellogg has focused on building a healthy image forits products, cutting sugar and salt content in many ofits cereals, targeting weight-conscious women withthe Special K and Nutri-Grain brands and thoseconcerned about artificial ingredients with the Kashirange of packaged food, which it expanded in 2011into the frozen processed food category.

Key company factsSTRATEGIC EVALUATION

Kellogg Co

Headquarters Battle Creek, MI, USA

Regionalinvolvement

Global

Categoryinvolvement

Biscuits, BreakfastCereals, Baked Goods,Frozen Processed Food,Snack Bars, Meal

Replacement

World packagedfood market valueshare 2010

0.8%

World packagedfood value growth2009-2010 (US$

fixed exchange rate)

1.7%


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Kellogg saw a decline of just over 1% in net

sales. A highly competitive breakfast cerealsmarket in North America in 2010 saw the bigplayers introduce price cuts to gain marketshare and drive sales. Kellogg's NorthAmerica Retail Cereal segment posted a netsales decline of 5% driven primarily by thecompetitive cereals environment and arecall of some breakfast cereals beginning

in June 2010 impacting Apple Jacks, HoneySnacks, Froot Loops and Corn Pops.Meanwhile, supply disruptions for its Eggowaffle brand negatively impacted on sales inits North American Frozen and Specialtysegment, which saw a decline of 3% in netsales.

Kellogg International posted a decline of 3%

on a reported basis in net sales althoughexcluding currency impacts its net saleswere flat over 2009. International sales werea mixed bag, however, with Europe leadingthe decline, while Asia Pacific postedgrowth.

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NetincomeUS$mn

TotalrevenueUS$m

n

Kellogg Co: Net Revenue vs Net Income

2006-2010

Total revenue Net income

Hits to North American sales hurt Kellogg in 2010STRATEGIC EVALUATION


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North America Snacks was the only North

American segment to post growth in 2010driven by strong performances for Pop Tarts,Cheez-It and the Mother's brand of biscuits.Growing interest in healthier biscuits helpedto drive growth in the category. Kelloggcredited the introduction of Fiber Plus,Special K Chocolaty Pretzel and Cinnabonsnack bars in the US with a stronger

performance. International Snacks posted a decline in netsales of 7%. A difficult operatingenvironment in Europe was primarily toblame. Europe made up 56% of Kellogg'sinternational sales in 2010 and sales in thisregion overall for Kellogg fell by 6%.Weakness in Russian snack sales and falling

prices across many food categories inEurope posed challenges for Kellogg.International Cereal's performance wasstronger than International Snacks's, buteven here growth was flat over 2009.

Kellogg Co: Net Sales by Segment 2010

North America Frozen & Specialty North America Snacks

International Snacks International Cereal

North America Retail Cereal

Healthier biscuits offer ray of hope for KelloggSTRATEGIC EVALUATION


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Q3 brought some relief for Kellogg, with net

sales overall growing by 5% in the quarter overthe same period in 2010. On a constantcurrency basis, net sales increased by 3%, asthe US dollar weakened over the period.

Consolidated operating profit over the Q32010/2011 period declined, however, as Kelloggannounced a significant increase in capitalinvestment to improve its supply chain. The

product recall in 2010 was the largest inKellogg's history, with some 28 million cerealboxes removed from retail shelves in NorthAmerica.

This was further compounded by disruptions toits supply chain for the Eggo brand in 2010, andmore recently US regulators found listeria at aKellogg plant in Georgia in 2011 that producedKeebler and Famous Amos biscuits. Thecompany has stated that it intends to spendUS$70 million in the second half of 2011 toimprove efficiency, reliability and quality in itsmanufacturing facilities.

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NetsalesUS$mn

Kellogg Co: Net Sales by Region Q3

2010/2011

Q3 2010 Q3 2011

Return to growth in Q3 but capital expenditure hits profitsSTRATEGIC EVALUATION


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STRENGTHS

OPPORTUNITIES

WEAKNESSES

THREATS

The scope of Kellogg'smanufacturing anddistribution networksmeans that thecompany has the scaleto quickly roll out new

brands and brandextensions.

Scale

Kellogg enjoys a verystrong brand portfolioparticularly in breakfastcereals but also insnack bars and biscuits.Its Kashi brand in the

US market has beenbuilt into one of itsbiggest brands.

Brand portfolio

Kellogg's debt to equityratio stood at 273% in2010. This limits thecompany's scope forfurther acquisition andinvestment in expanding

its brand portfolio.

High debt levels

A period ofunderinvestment in itsmanufacturing base hasleft the company withinsufficient capacity tomeet demand for its

products on a consistentbasis.

Underinvestment

Kellogg has been tryingto capitalise on the

health and wellnesstrend in packaged food.It is very well positionedto benefit from growth inconsumer interest here.

Health and wellness

Breakfast cereals is anemerging category in

markets such as Chinaand is undergoing rapidgrowth. Considerablescope for growth existshere for a player ofKellogg's scale.

Emerging markets

Price wars in breakfastcereals hit Kellogg in the

US market in 2010.Further deflationarypressures would hurtmargins and possiblymarket share.

Price wars

Further product recallsor supply disruptions

may jeopardiseKellogg's relationshipswith retailers and withconsumers.

Product recalls

SWOT: Kellogg CoSTRATEGIC EVALUATION


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Kellogg has a growing presence in the emergingmarkets, but compared to players such as Nestland Kraft Foods, Kellogg remains well behind.

Breakfast cereal in China is an emerging trend andoffers scope for growth for Kellogg. A strong pushin these markets, however, will mean investmentsin its manufacturing and supply chain to boostregional capacity. It will also mean an increase inmarketing to build a strong profile.

The healthier eating trend is a long term one inpackaged food. Kellogg, by virtue of its strength inbreakfast foods for which consumers are

particularly receptive to healthy eating options, hasa strong opportunity to benefit from this trend. Newproduct development and marketing programmeswhich highlight the nutritional value of its productswill help the company to drive sales.

Kellogg is in a difficult position. Like many foodproducers the company is facing rising input costs.At the same time it is in a highly competitive marketwhere consumers, hit by anaemic economicgrowth, are looking to save money where possible.In some of its key markets such as the US and theUK, the situation is made even more difficult by a

highly competitive and consolidatedsupermarkets/hypermarkets distribution channelputting further pressure on producers to cut prices.

Kellogg in an effort to cut costs and maintain itsmargin may not have invested sufficiently in itssupply chain and manufacturing. The company hassuffered a series of setbacks calling into questionthe quality and at times safety of its products.Kellogg has announced plans to step up its capitalinvestment programme. For a trusted name such

as Kellogg it is crucial that it maintains itsrelationship with the customer in order to defendagainst private label erosion of its market share.

Tough times for food producers Rebuild consumer trust

Healthy eating here to stay Emerging markets

Kellogg: Investment needed to exploit opportunitiesSTRATEGIC EVALUATION


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MARKET ASSESSMENT

BREAKFAST CEREALS

SNACK BARS

MEAL REPLACEMENT


BISCUITS


RECOMMENDATIONS


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A: Strong market performance Kellogg sales areunderpinned by a strongperformance in NorthAmerican breakfast cereals

and the acquisition of UnitedBakers Group in Russiagiving it the Yantar brand inbiscuits.

C: Price wars Contraction in USbreakfast cereals and fallingsales for Kellogg in WesternEurope conspire to force thecompany's rate of growth below

the global market for packagedfood. Despite a product recall inthe year Kellogg is able tomarginally increase its marketshare of breakfast cereals inthe US market.

B: Recession Kellogg'sperformance in the recessionaryyear of 2009 is underpinned byvarious trends, such as the 'eat-in' trend, consumers' tendency to

eat breakfast at home and'downtrading' benefiting thecompany. Kellogg's performanceis especially boosted by someemerging markets, such asBrazil, Mexico and Russia.

Kellogg struggles in 2010COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

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Packaged Food vs Kellogg 2007-2010(Retail Value, RSP, Fixed Exchange Rates US$)

Packaged foods Kellogg

A B

C


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Despite Kraft's acquisition of Cadbury

completed in 2010, Nestl hung onto its firstplace ranking. Nestl in 2010 increased itsinvestment in the emerging markets with anumber of regional acquisitions andinvestments in increased manufacturingcapacity.

Kraft gained a much stronger position in theEuropean market following the acquisition of

Cadbury but in 2011 announced plans tospin off its snacks business effectivelyoperating as two separate companies. Thenew snacks business is to include Cadbury'sproducts as well as pre-existing Kraft brandssuch as Ritz and Oreos.

Kellogg rose to seventh place off the back ofthe Kraft acquisition which pulled Cadbury

from the seventh position it held in 2009.Kellogg posted growth of 3% in 2010, aboveits 2009 performance but below its 5-yeargrowth rate as the US breakfast cerealscategory shrank in 2010 as a price war hitvalue sales.

Kellogg hit by price war but moves up rankingsCOMPETITIVE POSITIONING

Packaged Food: Top 10 Global Companies by Value

2006-2010

Company2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 2010 %

share

Nestl SA 1 1 1 1 1 3.3

Kraft Foods Inc 2 2 2 2 2 3.2

Unilever Group 3 3 3 3 3 2.0

PepsiCo Inc 4 4 4 4 4 1.8

Mars Inc 6 6 5 5 5 1.4

Danone, Groupe 5 5 6 6 6 1.4

Kellogg Co 8 8 8 8 7 0.8

General Mills Inc 9 9 9 9 8 0.6

Ferrero Group 10 10 10 10 9 0.6

Grupo BimboSAB de CV

19 19 18 11 10 0.5


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MARKET ASSESSMENT

BREAKFAST CEREALS

SNACK BARS

MEAL REPLACEMENT


BISCUITS


RECOMMENDATIONS


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Kellogg maintained only a marginal presence in Asia Pacific and Eastern Europe. However, growth in both

regions will exceed that of its key North American and Western European markets. Both these regions willsee very modest growth in CAGR terms of around 1% over the 2011-2016 period. High household debt,high unemployment and concerns over the economic direction of Europe and the US will continue tochallenge what is already a very mature market.

Meanwhile, changing eating patterns in markets such as China is offering opportunities for growth. Chilledprocessed food traditionally a Western concept is set to post a very strong CAGR of over 12% over 2011-2016, as busy Chinese consumers with disposable income look for convenience. An ageing population isalso driving growth underpinned by a growing awareness of healthier eating.

Latin America also offers strong growth potential (CAGR of 4%, 2011-2016). Kellogg is more firmlyestablished in this region, with a 1% packaged food share.

Emerging markets engine for packaged food growthMARKET ASSESSMENT

Asia Pacific

Australasia Eastern Europe

Middle East and Africa

North America

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AGR

2011-2016

Market size 2010 (US$ mn)

Kellogg Co: Packaged Food Presence 2010 and Growth Prospects by Region2011-2016

Opportunity Zone

Western Europe

Latin America

Note: Bubble size shows Kellogg share of region in 2010. Range displayed 0.1-2.6%


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In packaged food, the reliance of Kellogg on the North American market is clear, with regional sales making

up 59% of its global sales in 2010 although this did represent a decline from 62% in 2006. Kellogg posted anear 11% CAGR in Asia Pacific over the 2006-2010 period. However, growth here has been driven bymarket growth rather than growth in Kellogg's market share. This region has not been a major target foracquisitions by Kellogg, with the exception of Navigable Foods in 2008, giving it a stronger presence inbiscuits in the Chinese market.

Growth in Australasia has been flat over the 2006-2010 period despite the acquisition of Specialty Cerealsin 2008, owner of a range of breakfast cereals marketed in the healthier foods segment. The acquisition ofUnited Bakers, however, significantly boosted Kellogg's presence in Eastern Europe although this was

limited to the Russian market. Kellogg's presence elsewhere in the region is modest and it is entirely absentfrom the key Polish market. Despite the strong predicted growth in Latin America, Kellogg has opted fororganic growth rather than growth via acquisition.

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010RegionalshareofKelloggsales

Kellogg Co: Global Packaged Food Sales by Regional Share 2006-2010

Asia Pacific Australasia Eastern Europe Latin America Middle East and Africa North America Western Europe

Kellogg still reliant on North American marketMARKET ASSESSMENT


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Kellogg's key acquisitions over the 2006-2010 period include Bear Naked Inc, IndyBake Products LLC,

Brownie Products Co, Mother's Cake & Cookie Co, all of which were smaller acquisitions aimed atincreasing the company's presence in the better for you segment and/or bakery products.

While Kraft is the leading player in packaged food in the North American market its performance over the2006-2010 period has been poor compared to most. While the Cadbury acquisition gained it Trident,Dentyne and Halls, Kraft sold off its frozen pizza business including the DiGiorno and Tombstone brands in2010to Nestl, as well as its Post cereals business in 2007 to Ralcorp.

PepsiCo has benefited from strong growth in sweet and savoury snacks over 2006-2010 in which thecategory grew at a 4% CAGR. PepsiCo is the regional leader with a 43% market share. Nestl has

benefited from its Gerber acquisition in baby food in 2007 which added a further US$1 billion onto its salesin that year, as well as the aforementioned acquisition from Kraft. Underlying growth excluding theseacquisitions has been modest for Nestl. Mars has been the top performer over the period. Acquisition hasin part fuelled this as well via the Wrigley acquisition in 2008, which gained it the Orbit and Extra chewinggum brands.

Acquisitions help drive growth over review periodMARKET ASSESSMENT

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PepsiCo Inc Nestl SA Mars Inc Kellogg Co General MillsInc

Hershey Co,The

UnileverGroup

ConAgraFoods Inc

%C

AGR20

06-2010

Absolutevaluegrowth

US$m

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North America: Top Packaged Food Players and Performance 2006-2010

Absolute value growth 2006-2010 US$ mn % CAGR 2006/2010


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Kellogg is the global leader in snack bars and in breakfast cereals. Both categories are set to post CAGRs

of 3% and 2% respectively over 2011-2016. Most of the growth in breakfast cereals will come from LatinAmerica, which is expected to contribute US$685 million to the global US$2.6 billion in growth to take placeover 2011-2016. Kellogg is the leader in Latin American breakfast cereals, with a commanding 41% marketshare.

In snack bars, Kellogg again is the global leader with a 19% market share. Its leading brand in this categoryare Kellogg's and Kashi. These are to capitalise on the trend towards healthy on-the-go eating, while RiceKrispies is positioned as a snack bar treat. The Special K brand also makes an appearance in mealreplacement, which is expected to grow at a 2% CAGR over 2011-2016. Kellogg's presence in frozen

processed food is based primarily on the Eggo range of frozen waffles, although in 2011 the companyannounced plans to expand Kashi into this category

Strong presence in breakfast cereals and snack barsMARKET ASSESSMENT

Frozen Processed Food

Snack Bars

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Kellogg Co: Packaged Food Presence 2010 and Growth Prospects by Category2011-2016

Opportunity ZoneMeal Replacement

Breakfast Cereals

Note: Bubble size shows Kellogg share of region in 2010. Range displayed 0.9-33.6%


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MARKET ASSESSMENT

BREAKFAST CEREALS

SNACK BARS

MEAL REPLACEMENT


BISCUITS


RECOMMENDATIONS


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Kellogg's weakest categories in breakfast cereals are hot cereals and muesli. Kellogg attempted to shoreup its presence in muesli in the UK with the launch of Nature's Pleasure, which was subsequentlydiscontinued following poor sales. The company is absent from hot cereals except for the French market.Hot cereals and muesli are expected to lead breakfast cereals in CAGR terms over the 2011-2016 period.

Flakes is Kellogg's traditional strong point and it maintained a 45% market share globally in 2010. This is avery mature category, however, with a 2% CAGR expected over 2011-2016. Kellogg also faces growingcompetition from private label in some mature markets such as the US, where its share of flakes fell from33% in 2008 to 32% in 2010.

Other RTE cereals includes all non-flake and non-muesli cereals targeted at adults, e.g. wheat biscuits,

puffed wheat cereals, rice-based products etc. Kellogg's leading global brands in the category are Kellogg'sAll Bran and Kellogg's Mini Wheats. Kellogg maintained a 25% market share in 2010. In children's breakfastcereals, its share is 41%; this category is predicted a CAGR of only 1% over 2011-2016.

Kellogg faces market maturity and private label threatsBREAKFAST CEREALS

Hot Cereals

Children'sBreakfastCereals

Flakes

Other RTE Cereals

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Kellogg Co: Breakfast Cereals Presence 2010 and Growth Prospects by Category2011-2016

Opportunity Zone

Muesli

Note: Bubble size shows Kellogg share of category in 2010. Range displayed 0.1-45.3%


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Despite the disappointment of Nature's Pleasure in the UK, Kellogg has considerable scope for growth inmuesli over the forecast period, owing to its strong positions in the Brazilian and US markets, which willlead growth globally. Kellogg despite is strong position in other breakfast cereal categories has struggled inWestern Europe muesli. It has only a marginal presence in Germany, the UK and Norway, which will leadgrowth in that region.

Growth in this category globally is driven by the health and wellness trend with consumers associatingmuesli with a healthy breakfast and good nutrition. Kellogg entered the German muesli category in 2008,but thus far has not managed to capture market share from the leading local players Oetker-Gruppe andPeter Klln. In fact there has been very little movement in brand shares in German muesli with consumers

very loyal to one particular brand. A high level of new product development among the leading playersensures little migration to new products such as Kellogg's muesli. There is, however, a growing interest inorganic muesli suggesting this is one area in which Kellogg may manage to capture a stronger share in thismarket. In Brazil, Kellogg has an overwhelming lead in the category, with a 72% market share, underpinnedby its Kellogg's Mueslix brand.

Kellogg leader in most dynamic muesli marketsBREAKFAST CEREALS

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Muesli: Top 10 Most Dynamic Markets 2011-2016 and Kellogg 2010 Company Share

Absolute value growth 2011-2016 US$ mn % CAGR 2011-2016 Kellogg % company share 2010


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Kellogg is particularly weak in hot cereals, with only a 3% share of the French hot cereals market. This isclearly an area in which Kellogg can expand. It is the leader in breakfast cereals overall in India, which isset to see the strongest growth in hot cereals, but it is PepsiCo with its Quaker brand that leads in thiscategory. Market growth in India is underpinned by a growing awareness of the heart health benefits ofoats. Heart disease and its prevalence became a major influence on the buying habits of Indian consumersand PepsiCo undertook a very effective campaign in promoting the benefits of oats for breakfast.

Kellogg is absent from the UK market for hot cereals as well. Hot oats for breakfast while a quintessentiallyScottish breakfast choice still has considerable scope for growth in England where flakes and other RTEcereals are more common choices. Here too, the health benefits of oats is gaining in acceptance among

consumers and here again, PepsiCo is the overwhelming leader with its Oatso Simple variant which offerspre-measured oats ready in 60 seconds using a microwave. More recently, PepsiCo has been pursuing thechildren's demographic, highlighting to parents the benefits of oats while offering flavours designed toappeal to kids. Kellogg should strongly consider leveraging its distribution network to launch its own hotcereal products.

Kellogg missing out in hot cerealsBREAKFAST CEREALS

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Hot Cereals: Top 10 Most Dynamic Markets 2011-2016

Absolute value growth 2011-2016 US$ mn % CAGR 2011-2016


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Flakes is not the most dynamic of categories within breakfast cereals. Only the US will show strong growthhere. In part this is due to announced price increases in 2011 by Kellogg and General Mills following aperiod of heavy price promotion which negatively impacted on unit prices in 2008-2010. Kellogg haspointed to rising commodity costs as the key reason behind its move to increase prices.

Another driver behind the growth in flakes is a shift from other RTE and children's breakfast cereals due toa growing perception that cereals marketed at children contain high levels of sugar. In January 2011Kellogg introduced its highly popular Kellogg's Crunchy Nut cereal into the US market. If the brand is ableto replicate the success it has had in the UK market, this too will boost sales in the flakes category.

Growth prospects for Kellogg in some markets such as Canada are limited to organic market growth given

its already overwhelmingly dominant position. Going forward, Kellogg will need to defend its market sharefrom private label to maintain its leading position and look to expand popular brands such as Crunchy Nutto other markets to capitalise on their success as it has done in the US.

Unit price growth to return in US marketBREAKFAST CEREALS

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Flakes: Most Dynamic Markets 2011-2016 and Kellogg 2010 Company Share



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Birth rates have a significant impact on sales of children's breakfast cereals. Latin America and Middle Eastare key regions driving growth in the category. Mexico will lead, with sales set to expand by US$72 millionover the 2011-2016 period. Kellogg remains notably absent from the Polish market despite having amanufacturing facility in the town of Kutno.

Depressing sales of children's breakfast cereals in mature markets is also a growing concern over sugarlevels in brands marketed at children. Kellogg has acted pre-emptively in some cases such as voluntarilyadding vitamin D to a range of brands including Coco Pops and Honey Loops in Europe in 2011 inresponse to parental concerns over nutritional content. Kellogg is very sensitive to criticism of its brands. In2011, it responded publically to unconfirmed reports that a parental lobby group in the US known as the

Parents Jury was to give Coco Pops, the 'Pester Power' award, an indirect criticism of Kellogg's advertisingcampaigns for the brand. These criticisms may bubble under the surface in the emerging markets but theyare not as vocalised and neither have government regulation or parental lobby groups become asaggressive.

Children's breakfast cereals: Opportunities in emerging marketsBREAKFAST CEREALS

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Children's Breakfast Cereals: Most Dynamic Markets 2011-2016 and Kellogg 2010Company Share



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In 2011, Ralcorp rejected a hostile takeover from ConAgra for the Post cereal business which it hadoriginally acquired from Kraft in 2008. Ralcorp gained from the deal a range of brands in breakfast cerealsincluding Grape Nuts and Alpha-Bits. ConAgra is active in a number of packaged food categories includingsweet and savoury snacks and oils and fats. It does not, however, have a presence in breakfast cerealsdespite being a processor of whole grains for supply to other food producers. This particular capacitymeans that it could more easily address fluctuations in commodity prices than many breakfast cerealsproducers. For ConAgra, the other key attraction of Ralcorp is its significant presence in private label.

Ralcorp chose to spin off the Post business as a second company although it is widely speculated thatConAgra may return with another offer. It has also speculated in the media that Ralcorp had approved both

General Mills and Kellogg in an attempt to stave off the ConAgra bid. The difficulty for both of these playersmay be anti-trust laws which would make such a deal difficult to have approved. The combined marketshares of Ralcorp's Post business and Kellogg would at least raise concerns in North America whereKellogg and Post are both relatively strong. Similarly in South Korea the combined market share of bothbrand portfolios would reach 98% of breakfast cereals making it highly unlikely to please regulators.

The potential synergies are modest between the two players, but the likelihood is that Post will eventuallybe sold. Commodity costs as well as consolidation in packaged food retailing in its key markets is bestsuited to a large-scale operation unless it was to target a niche segment such as organic breakfast cereals

or premium health and wellness cereals. General Mills would be a better match although thus far it has notindicated any interest publically in Ralcorp. General Mills in breakfast cereals is limited to North America. Itsshare in North America as well when combined with that of the Post business would also be less likely to beblocked by anti-trust regulation. General Mills would benefit from Ralcorp's Asia Pacific as well as its privatelabel business.

Breakfast cereals landscape likely to change if Post is soldBREAKFAST CEREALS


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MARKET ASSESSMENT

BREAKFAST CEREALS

SNACK BARS

MEAL REPLACEMENT


BISCUITS


RECOMMENDATIONS


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Kellogg is the global leader in snack bars, with a 19% market share. Its key brands include Special K, Nutri-Grain and Kellogg's Rice Krispies. The company has been successful at cross-branding between breakfastcereals and snack bars, as witnessed by the success of Special K in snack bars. It has also seen stronggrowth with the Kashi brand in breakfast bars and granola/muesli bars although this has been limited to theNorth American market.

Other snack bars includes types such as non-cereal bars (e.g. sesame), yoghurt bars, fibre supplements,etc. Kellogg is present in the category with Kellogg's Rice Krispies among other brands, which is the leaderhere with 41% of sales.

Breakfast bars, led by Special K and by Nutri-Grain, will under-perform over the forecast period, while

granola/muesli bars and energy and nutrition bars will lead growth in CAGR terms. Kellogg is relativelyweak in both of these categories suggesting the outlook for the company in snack bars is modest unless itinvests in new product development in these categories.

Granola/muesli to lead snack barsSNACK BARS

Breakfast Bars

Energy and Nutrition BarsOther Snack Bars

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Kellogg Co: Snack Bars Presence and Growth Prospects by Category 2011-2016

Opportunity Zone Granola/Muesli Bars

Fruit Bars

Note: Bubble size shows Kellogg share of category in 2010. Range displayed 5.5-55.5%


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With the exception of the US market, Kellogg is not active in granola/muesli bars among the top 10 best-performing markets. In the US, its key brand is Kashi. Kellogg acquired Kashi in 2000 and has built thebrand into one of its key strategy US interests. It has expanded it into a number categories including frozenprocessed food; however, it has not expanded it beyond the US market and appears too reluctant to do soowing to the highly competitive market for snack bars in international markets.

A recent focus for new product development for the Kashi range has been healthy treats incorporatingmocha almond and dark chocolate variants into its TLC Chewy Granola Bar range. Such moves encouragewider interest in granola bars and capture those who are initially put off by the image of granola bars.

Given Kellogg's strong position in markets such as Brazil, Canada and the UK in breakfast cereals its

absence from granola/muesli bars is unfortunate. The company should look to either expand Kashi or tolaunch new products in this category in these markets and leverage its distribution network and growingstrength in healthy eating.

Expansion in granola/muesli bars a prioritySNACK BARS

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

US Argentina Brazil Canada UK India Australia Israel Netherlands NewZealand

%C

AGR201

1-2016and

company

share

Absolutevaluegrowth

2011/2016

US$mn

Granola/Muesli Bars: Most Dynamic Markets 2011-2016 and Kellogg 2010 CompanyShare



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Kellogg continues to draw most of its snack bar sales from the US, again maintaining only a significantpresence in energy and nutrition bars in this market. It captured 8% of energy and nutrition bar sales in theUS in 2010. Globally, this category is led by Nestl with its Power Bar brand. Energy and nutrition barswere once the domain of athletes and committed gym attendees but have since expanded beyond thisniche to include consumers looking for a healthy alternative to confectionery for on-the-go snacking.

Product development by brands such as Clif from Clif Bar in the US market target younger, more affluentconsumers. The Clif brand in the US has seen strong growth over the review period as it appeals to a wideraudience than Power Bar which remains strongly associated with bodybuilding. Meanwhile, Kellogg with itsSpecial K brand remains overly reliant on weight-conscious women limiting its appeal to men and families.

Energy and nutrition bars in Europe and the emerging markets remains a niche category. However, there isscope to launch a product which like Clif appeals to consumers looking for healthy alternatives. Given thestrong interest in organic food in the European market any new launch by Kellogg should identify itself thisway. A faster route would be to acquire a smaller producer with an existing high potential brand andleverage the Kellogg distribution network to expand sales in and outside of the US.

Follow Clif Bar example in energy and nutrition barsSNACK BARS

0

5

10

15

0

200

400

600

US Japan Canada UK Argentina Norway Brazil Indonesia Australia Netherlands%C

AGR2011-2016and

companyshare

Absolutevalueg

rowth

2011/2016US$

mn

Energy and Nutrition Bars: Most Dynamic Markets 2011-2016 and Kellogg 2010Company Share



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With the US remaining Kellogg's key market for snack bars, the modest growth set to take place inbreakfast bars and in other snack bars as well as contraction in fruit bars is of some concern. Kellogg willneed to reallocate its new product development investment over the forecast period into the more dynamicenergy and nutrition bars and granola/muesli bars categories.

Fruit bars sales in the US are set to contract by US$39 million over the forecast period. Kellogg has arange of brands in this category; Kellogg's Fruit Twistables, Kellogg's Yogos and Fruit Streamers are its keybrands all targeted at children. The category, however, came under fire from parents for their high sugarcontent and the use of partially hydrogenated oils. Bad press will continue to stymie growth for thecategory. Welch Foods has capitalised on these concerns for its Welch's Fruit Snacks with its 'We put fruit

in our fruit snacks' strapline. Market share for the brand grew, while it fell for Twistables and Yogos. Othersnack bars for Kellogg is effectively Rice Krispies, which made up 65% of total category sales in 2010.Kellogg remains overly reliant on one single brand here and will need to work to maintain customer interestwhere other categories could potentially cannibalise sales.

Criticism of nutritional content hits fruit barsSNACK BARS

-20

0

20

40

60

80

-200

0

200

400

600

800

Energy and NutritionBars

Granola/Muesli Bars Breakfast Bars Other Snack Bars Fruit Bars %C

AGR2011-

2016and

companys

hare

Absolutevaluegrowth

2011/2016U

S$mn

US Snack Bars: Growth Prospects 2011-2016 and Kellogg 2010 Company Share byCategory



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Meal replacement opportunities linked to Special K brand strengthMEAL REPLACEMENT

0

5

10

15

20

0

100

200

300

400

India Brazil US Japan South Korea Australia Mexico China Malaysia Thailand

%C

AGR2011-2016and

company

share

Absolutevaluegrowth

2011/2016US$mn

Meal Replacement: Most Dynamic Markets 2011-2016 and Kellogg 2010 CompanyShare


Kellogg's has capitalised on the strength of the Special K brand among weight-conscious women byexpanding it into meal replacement slimming. Special K has enjoyed good growth in the US market,growing its market share from 2% in 2007 to 4% in 2010. However, it faces intense competition from directsellers Herbalife and Amway, which have well-developed weight loss programmes, which heavily featuremeal replacement slimming.

It also faces competition from Slim Fast from Unilever, which also forms part of a wider weight lossprogramme and which benefits from a wider range of products. As Kellogg's presence in meal replacementslimming is directly related to its Special K brand, the company has expanded only into markets where italready has a strong presence in breakfast cereals.

While growth will be strongest in the Indian market, Kellogg's potential for growth here is limited by the lackof a presence for Special K and the disproportionate reliance on powder concentrates whereas the SpecialK range is based around RTD shakes and low calorie snack bars.


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Kellogg's presence in frozen processed food is limited to North America. Frozen bakery is its major interestin the US market underpinned by the Eggo brand. The brand suffered in 2010 as Kellogg experiencedsupply problems, which meant it could not meet demand for the product. Eggo's share of frozen bakery inthe US fell from 23% to 19% in 2010. In frozen meat substitutes, its key brands are Morningstar Farms andGardenburger. Kellogg was not active in this category outside of the US in 2010.

Morningstar consolidated its dominant position in frozen meat substitutes in the US in 2010, rising from66% to 68%. The outlook for the category is good with sales set to expand by US$50 million over the 2011-2016 period. Stronger growth in absolute value terms is expected in other markets, notably Germany,where sales will increase by US$75 million. Kellogg, however, appears to have little interest in expanding its

global presence in frozen processed food, focusing instead on snack bars and breakfast cereals.

Region focus in frozen processed food not about to changeFROZEN PROCESSED FOOD

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Kelloggfroze

nprocessedfoodby

categ

oryUS$mn

Kellogg Co: Frozen Processed Food Sales by Market and Category 2006-2010

Canada Frozen Bakery Mexico Frozen Bakery US Frozen Bakery US Frozen Meat Substi tutes US Frozen Ready Meals


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Kellogg's investments in its supply chain announced in 2011 should ensure that there is no repeat goinginto 2012 of the supply disruptions for its Eggo brand. However, frozen bakery in the US is set to contractby US$30 million, putting further pressure on Eggo sales. The outlook in Canada is better, however, withcategory sales expected to expand by US$34 million over 2011-2016. Kellogg is again the leader here.

In 2011, Kellogg announced the expansion of the Kashi frozen ready meal range with two new variants. Itis a bold move to invest in frozen ready meals given Kashi's whole grain, healthy positioning when thiscategory has suffered from consumer bias against frozen food. This mistrust of frozen food is based on thesomewhat misguided belief that frozen food offers less nutritional value. Effectively, Kellogg is targeting thepremium end of the frozen ready meals price range with the Kashi launch.

Kellogg is unlikely to compete with Nestl's Stouffer's range which leads in the US and wisely chose todifferentiate itself by focusing on an under-exploited segment. The challenge, however, will be to overcomeconsumer perception surrounding frozen ready meals, as the Kashi range is priced at a premium whencompared to ranges such as Stouffer's.

Kellogg targets premium frozen ready meals with KashiFROZEN PROCESSED FOOD

-1

0

1

2

3

-200

0

200400

600

800

Frozen Bakery Frozen Meat Substitutes Frozen Ready Meals

%C

AGR20

11-2016

Absolutevalu

egrowth

2011/2016US$mn

US Frozen Processed Food: Growth Prospects by Select Categories 2011-2016

Absolute value growth 2011-2016 US$ mn % CAGR 2011-2016


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In terms of the most dynamic markets in biscuits, Kellogg has a limited presence. It has a 2% categoryshare in China, but its strongest presence is in the US through the Keebler brand, which it acquired in areverse merger in 2000. Kellogg wanted to expand its snacks business and was particularly attracted toKeebler's direct store delivery system whereby rather than work through wholesalers, distribution washandled directly between Keebler and retailers allowing for complete control over merchandising andinventory levels. This key strength, however, makes it difficult for the brand to be expanded into newmarkets as it involves replicating the distribution system from the ground up. In the US, the Keebler brand isranked number one in biscuits ahead of Oreo from Kraft Foods. The brand's market share of biscuits,however, has been on the decline since 2008.

Instead, Kellogg opted for acquisition in foreign markets with the United Bakers Group in Russia andNavigable in China. In Russia, where the biscuits market will expand by US$84 million over the forecastperiod, Kellogg has a 7% market share. In China, the strongest growth will take place in savoury biscuitsand crackers, which will represent 59% of total growth in the category. Here, Kellogg maintained a 1%market share in 2010.

Kellogg looks to bolt on acquisitions in international marketsBISCUITS

0

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25

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

India China Brazil US UK Mexico Indonesia Argentina Turkey Vietnam %C

AGR2011-2016and

companyshare

Absolutevalue

growth

2011/2016U

S$mn

Biscuits: Most Dynamic Markets 2011-2016 and Kellogg 2010 Company Share

Absolute value growth 2011-2016 US$ mn % CAGR 2011-2016 Kellogg % Company Share 2010


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Kellogg's packaged food portfolio consists of leading global and regional breakfast cereals, snack bars andfrozen food brands. Kellogg employs cross-category brand leveraging, taking a successful brand andexpanding it into other categories in order to drive overall brand growth. Examples include Kellogg's SpecialK from breakfast cereals into breakfast bars.

This umbrella brand strategy enables effective and more cost-efficient marketing support for each newproduct development and brand extension. In July 2010, Kellogg also extended the Eggo product line withthe launch of Eggo Real Fruit Pizzas, an all-in-one combination of fruit and granola on a baked cinnamonand maple-flavoured crust.

In 2011, Kellogg expanded the Kashi range known for its cereals and snack bars into frozen processed

food with a range of frozen ready meals. This range underwent extensive development since beingacquired by Kellogg, as it hopes to leverage the Kashi brand across various categories in order to target thepremium natural foods segment. Also in 2011, Kellogg launched Kashi TLC Pita Crips in the sweet andsavoury snacks category. Frozen processed food has struggled in the US, with consumer perception that itis less healthy than chilled processed food. Therefore the move by Kashi into this category is somewhatsurprising although it fits in with the wider Kellogg strategy of leveraging its brands across categories.

The market positioning for Special K is geared towards women concerned about their weight. This hasallowed the brand considerable flexibility in targeting meal replacement, breakfast cereals, sweet and

savoury snacks and snack bars. Kellogg has been adept at maintaining a consistent message, however,irrespective of what category its brands are expanded into; Special K for women looking to maintain theirweight and Kashi for those concerned about artificial ingredients, for example.

Kellogg cross-category leveraging to boost brand salesBRAND STRATEGY


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In June 2011, US regulators found listeria at a Kellogg plant in Georgia, USA, which produced Keeblerbiscuits. The subsequent recall effected Keebler Soft Batch Cookies. This had a significant effect on

consumer confidence in the brand in the latter half of 2011. However, prior to this, the brand had alreadybeen struggling with competition from brands such as Oreo, which enjoyed strong growth in 2010 owing tonew product innovation such as Golden Oreos launched late in 2009. It went onto launch Oreo TripleDoubles in 2011, which consisted of three layers of biscuit with two crme fillings.

There were some bright spots for Keebler, however, with the Fudge Shoppe brand performing well inchocolate coated biscuits in the US in 2010 and gaining almost 50 basis points in market share in thatcategory. A major focus for product development has been miniaturisation with new variants added to its

Right Bites range including Fudge Shoppe as it strives to balance the calorie consciousness of consumerswith their need for indulgence. Kellogg derives 99% of its Keebler sales from the US market, making thebrand vulnerable to new product launches and advertising campaigns from competitors. Kellogg has optedto acquire companies in emerging markets rather than launch the Keebler brand abroad.

Keebler struggles to maintain momentumBRAND STRATEGY

1,300

1,310

1,320

1,330

1,340

1,350

1,360

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

US$mn

Keebler: Global Sales 2006-2010


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Special K is among Kellogg's most lucrative brands in sales terms. The company has been adept atexpanding the brand continually into new categories going beyond breakfast cereals into snack bars and

meal replacement. Kellogg has targeted weight-conscious women maintaining a consistent message of lowcalorie filling food, which when combined with good lifestyle choices can reduce weight.

However, this has meant that it lacks a strong following among men. It also has missed out on the trendtowards family-wide healthy eating as the brand is overly associated with 'mum' as opposed to everyone.The move therefore into meal replacement, which made up 6% of global sales in 2010, was a good one asit allows for new product development focused squarely on weight loss, RTD shakes as well as mealreplacement bars and protein drink mixes. In 2012 meal replacement added a further US$112 million to

Special K's global brand sales. The brand is also present in snack bars and sweet and savoury snacks,capitalising on growing demand for healthy on-the-go snacking.

Special K targets women concerned about their weightBRAND STRATEGY

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

US$

mn

Kellogg's Special K: Global Sales 2006-2010


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Nutri-Grain was Kellogg's second largest brand by value sales in 2010. While Special K began in breakfastcereals before being extended to snack bars, the reverse is true for Nutri-Grain. The Nutri-Grain brand has

benefited from growing consumer awareness of healthy eating and its product positioning as a whole grainall-day snack. Its presence in breakfast cereals is largely limited to Australia, which made up 89% of Nutri-Grain sales in breakfast cereals. The brand here has seen strong growth in sales over the review periodsuggesting further opportunity to expand Nutri-Grain in other breakfast cereal markets.

Nutri-Grain in some markets such as the UK has struggled in snack bars as competition from other brandserodes the early mover advantage Nutri-Grain had in this market. Brands such as Nature Valley and Jordanhave seen strong growth while Nutri-Grain has seen its market share of snack bars fall here from 10% to

7% in 2010. The US remains the brand's major market, making up 52% of its global sales in 2010, and herethe brand has continued to post robust growth over the review period.

Nutri-Grain opportunities to expand into new categoriesBRAND STRATEGY

440

450

460

470

480

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500

510

520

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

US$

mn

Kellogg's Nutri-Grain: Global Sales 2006-2010


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As of the end of fiscal 2010, Kellogg employed some 31,000 people and manufactured in 18 countries andmarketed in more than 180 countries.

In recent years, Kellogg has made acquisitions that strengthened its international growth potentials, as wellas gaining access to well-established manufacturing and distribution facilities outside the US.

The acquisition of United Bakers, one of Russia's largest producers of cookies, crackers and cereals,provided distribution and six manufacturing facilities throughout the country.

The purchase of Navigable Foods, a biscuits manufacturer with strong roots and tradition in the Chinesemarket, gave Kellogg two new manufacturing facilities and a wide distribution network.

Other notable acquisitions include Specialty Cereals in 2008 in Australia and IndyBake Products in the USalso in 2008.

Outside the US, Kellogg has manufacturing facilities and warehousing in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China,Colombia, Ecuador, Germany, Great Britain, India, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South Korea,Spain, Thailand, and Venezuela.

Kellogg commenced its K LEAN programme in 2009. K LEAN seeks to optimise the company's globalmanufacturing network, reduce waste and develop best practices on a global basis. However, following aseries of recalls and supply interruptions in 2010/2011, the company's CEO of less than a year John Bryant

said the company had "cut deeper than it should have". Kellogg announced US$70 million in additionalcapital expenditure in the latter part of 2011, adding back some of the jobs cut and focusing on employeetraining and its relationships with suppliers. Kellogg hopes that this investment will ensure better qualitycontrol and a more reliable supply chain.

Kellogg reinvests in its operations in 2011OPERATIONS


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Manufacturing facilities in the US: 2011OPERATIONS

Cereal plants and

warehouses

Battle Creek, Michigan

Lancaster, Pennsylvania

Memphis, Tennessee

Omaha, Nebraska

Other plants

San Jose, California

Atlanta, Augusta, Columbus, Rome,Georgia

Chicago, Illinois

Seelyville, Indiana, Kansas City, Kansas

Florence, Louisville and Pikeville,Kentucky

Grand Rapids, Michigan

Blue Anchor, New Jersey

Cary and Charlotte, North Carolina

Cincinnati and Zanesville, Ohio

Muncy, Pennsylvania; Rossville, Tennessee

Clearfield, Utah; and Allyn, Washington


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The opportunities in children's breakfast cerealsare largely limited to the emerging markets givenparental concern in the West over sugar contentand nutritional value. Merely adding vitamins maynot be sufficient to overcome parents scepticism of

brands such as Frosted Flakes. Kellogg shouldconsider launching a new children's breakfastcereal which from the outset meets the demands ofboth taste and nutrition clearly differentiating thenew product from its other brands. This breakfastcereal could target a more affluent target market.

Kashi is a well-developed range with a presence insnack bars, breakfast cereals including hot cereals,biscuits and sweet and savoury snacks. Kelloggshould consider expanding this brand outside ofthe US including into Western Europe. There is a

clear opportunity, for instance, in hot cereals in theUK market. Also, the success of Nutri-Grainbreakfast cereals in the Australian market suggeststhere is potential for this variant to be introducedinto other markets to capitalise on the strength ofthe Nutri-Grain brand.

Kellogg remains overly dependent on the maturemarkets of North America and Western Europe. Itremains a modest player in markets such as Chinawhich will post very strong growth in biscuits overthe forecast period. Its focus on acquiring smallerregional brands is appropriate; however, it has thusfar failed to exploit synergies with its existingportfolio to truly drive growth.

Hot cereals is set to post strong growth led byIndia. Kellogg remains weak in the Indian marketand should focus here for future acquisitions. It hasalso failed to launch a product in this category inthe UK where it could capitalise on its existingdistribution network to drive sales. The company'slack of new product development here suggests afailure to keep abreast of consumer trends in keymarkets.

Push forward in emerging markets Consider hot cereals

Replicate US success elsewhereConsider new launch in children's breakfast

cereals

Kellogg: Reduce reliance on US market and build global brandsRECOMMENDATIONS


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