keeping commercial air travel and airspace safegeneral presentation of nmd 15 staffing and capacity...
TRANSCRIPT
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European problems are global issues
Dr Roland Vermeiren
Head Medical Service EUROCONTROL
November 2018
Keeping Commercial Air Travel and Airspace Safe
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General presentation of NMD 2
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Network Operations Management 3
Future:
Capacity remains a challenge
2000: 8 million 2007: 10 million 2030: 17 million
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General presentation of NMD 4
THE EU NETWORK MANAGER IN 2018
37,101flights on
Friday 7th
September
YTD delay
2.04 MINUTE PER FLIGHT
37,101 flights
on Friday 7th
September
YTD delay
2.04 MINUTE PER FLIGHT
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General presentation of NMD 5
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General presentation of NMD 6
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General presentation of NMD 7
TRAFFIC
18 days
with traffic
above
36.000
flights
3.7%Traffic
Increase
(summer and
YTD)
Top
contributors:
Turkey
Greece
Germany
24720
25653
26953
29862
31491
34159
34957
34721
34368
4.2% 3.6% 2.6% 5.1% 2.9% 4.1% 3.7% 3.5% 2.6%
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Average daily traffic
2017 2018
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Network Performance 8
• Traffic: + 3.7% (summer and YTD).
• Close to 11 million flights at the end of the year – 8% more than 2008
• Strong growth in Central and Eastern European states
• Moderate growth in SW axis. Decrease in traffic from UK and Sweden
• Russian and Middle-east recovery
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9
Biggest changes in 2017(in absolute number of flights added vs 2016)
Note: schematic routing only
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Far East
285
NAM/SAM
1533
Russian Fed & *STAN
1383
Very significant growth
expected
• Gulf
• SE Asia
• China
• Russia
NM area internal traffic
25862
Gulf
652
Southern MED
843
Africa
334
Middle East
151
• Improved connectivity & interoperability required
• Predictability & capacity optimisation
• Disruption planning & management
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▪ SOMETHING IS ALWAY HAPPENING
SOMEWHERE
▪ Meteo problems
▪ Human resources problems
▪ Technical problems
▪ Airport problems
Airspace Management
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General presentation of NMD 12
WEATHER
28.5% of
ATFM delay
in AUGUST
Maastricht
Karlsruhe
Vienna
the most
affected
areas
CLIMATE CHANGE HAS
BEEN HAPPENING!
7763
17125
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2017 2018
Avera
ge d
aily dela
ys (
min
)
Year-to-date en route weather delays
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General presentation of NMD 13
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General presentation of NMD 14
INDUSTRIAL ACTIONS
The most
impacted-
Marseille
ACC
19strikes days
with severe
ATFM impact
during the
Summer
1751
4749
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2017 2018
Avera
ge d
ail
y d
ela
ys (
min
)
Year-to-date en route Industrial Action delays
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General presentation of NMD 15
STAFFING AND CAPACITY
29.8% ATC
capacity
delays in
AUGUST
20.1% ATC
staffing
delays in
AUGUST
MORE
CAPACITY
NEDEED!
29977
61838
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
2017 2018
Avg d
aily d
ela
ys (
min
)
Year-to-date Network en route delays
CAPACITY & STAFFING WEATHER DISRUPTIVE EVENTS
35557
9156
17125
57.5% 14.8% 27.7%
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
STAFFING & CAPACITY DISRUPTIVE EVENTS WEATHER
Avg d
aily d
ela
ys (
min
)
Year-to-date Network en route delays
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General presentation of NMD 16
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General presentation of NMD 17
AIRPORTS
1969
421
146
5066
230
511
8298
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
AD CAPACITY (ATC)
AD STAFFING (ATC)
AD DISRUPTIONS (ATC)
AD CAPACITY
AD DISRUPTIONS
AD EVENTS
AD WEATHER
Year-to-date airport regulation Jan - end August
0.58 min/fltATFM
airport
delay
Weather
delay:
50% of
total delay
27%decrease
of
Airport
Capacity
Amsterdam/
Schipol AD
Barcelona AD
Lisbon AD
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General presentation of NMD 18
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En-route
Network Performance 19
• Weather: More than double of last year, 30 % of en-route delays
• Capacity and Staffing: 112% more than 2017
• Disruptions and Events: Highest increase, 150% more than 2017
16207
34404
8022
17943
3737
9425
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
2017 2018
Av. D
ela
y p
er
day (
min
)
Network En-route ATFM delay Jan-Aug
Capacity Weather Disruptive Events
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Network Operations Management 21
ATM Structure in Europe
One single
Flow Management
System over
Europe
43 States
68 En-route centres = 1750 Sectors
1940 Aircraft Operators
500 Airports
60 FMPs
4500 airspace users
Peaks 36 825 flights a day
~11 000 000 flights a year
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Supply Demand
Capacity
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Network Operations Management 24
Partners
Air Traffic Flow
& Capacity
Management
(ATFCM)
Flight Plan
Processing
EAD & Aeronautical
Information
(EAB)
Airspace Data
Management
Network Operations Services
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06 20 40 07 20 40 08
Supply/
Capacity
10
Demand
5
0
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Imbalance
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General presentation of NMD 26
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Imbalanced
ATC sector
Rerouting
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Ground
24,500 ft
Imbalanced
ATC sector
Level Capping
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Ground
24,500 ft
Imbalanced
ATC sector
Level Capping
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10
DemandSupply/
Capacity
5
0
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
06 20 40 07 20 40 08
“Regulation”
RE-BALANCE between capacity and demand
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Delays
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Challenges for the future
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The vision for Global ATFM – A set of
interlinked operational ATFM regions
34
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enter your presentation title 35
NEFAB
UK-IR
FAB EC
SW Portugal-Spain
DK-SE
Baltic
CEFAB
Blue MED
Danube
@ E
UR
OC
ON
TR
OL
European Coordination based on FABs
TNM 1 TNM 2
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General presentation of NMD 36
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General presentation of NMD 37
2.6% Total IFR
Movements
Increase
2019 EU FORECAST
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Issues to be addressed
• Staffing situation and opening schemes
• Weather impact in areas with limited capacity delivery
• Airspace saturation in some parts of the core area
• High number of un-necessary “regulations” • A new network-orientated approach required
• Commitment to deliver the Network Operational Plans
• More commitment to the Single European Sky (SES) Network targets :
we will not be below 1 min/flight delay in next 5 years!
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EU Network Manager - SES Orchestra
• No commitment as to how many/enough orchestra members turn up on the day
• Each member has own ideas as to what to play, how loud, what tempo
• Conductor still has to guarantee performance is delivered each and every day
2018 : audience has started to complain !
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General presentation of NMD 40