kats technical report (language:korean)

7/25/2019 KATS Technical Report (Language:Korean)

1/6819

IPCCWGI

IPCC""IPCC.

(Technical Summary)

(CoordinatingLeadAuthors):

Susan Solomon (USA),DaheQin (China), MartinManning (USA,NewZealand)

(LeadAuthors):

Richard B.Alley (USA),TerjeBerntsen (Norway),NathanielL.Bindoff (Australia), Zhenlin Chen (China), AmnatChidthaisong (Thailand), Jonathan M. Gregory (UK), Gabriele C. Hegerl (USA, Germany), Martin Heimann

(Germany,Switzerland),BruceHewitson(SouthAfrica),BrianJ.Hoskins(UK),FortunatJoos(Switzerland),JeanJouzel (France),VladimirKattsov (Russia),UlrikeLohmann (Switzerland),TarohMatsuno (Japan), MarioMolina(USA, Mexico), Neville Nicholls (Australia), Jonathan Overpeck (USA), Graciela Raga (Mexico, Argentina),Venkatachalam Ramaswamy (USA), Jiawen Ren (China), Matilde Rusticucci (Argentina), Richard Somerville(USA),ThomasF.Stocker (Switzerland),RonaldJ.Stouffer (USA),PennyWhetton(Australia),RichardA.Wood(UK), DavidWratt (New Zealand)

(ContributingAuthors):

J.Arblaster(USA,Australia),G.Brasseur(USA,Germany),J.H.Christensen(Denmark),K.L.Denman(Canada),D.W. Fahey (USA), P. Forster (UK), J. Haywood (UK), E. Jansen (Norway), P.D. Jones (UK), R. Knutti(Switzerland),H.LeTreut (France),P.Lemke (Germany), G.Meehl (USA),D.Randall (USA),D.A. Stone (UK,

Canada), K.E. Trenberth (USA), J.Willebrand (Germany), F. Zwiers (Canada)

(ReviewEditors):

Kansri Boonpragob (Thailand), Filippo Giorgi (Italy), Bubu Pateh Jallow (The Gambia)

.

Solomon,S.,D.Qin,M.Manning,R.B.Alley,T.Berntsen,N.L.Bindoff,Z.Chen,A.Chidthaisong,J.M.Gregory,G.C. Hegerl, M.Heimann,B.Hewitson,B.J. Hoskins, F.Joos, J. Jouzel,V. Kattsov, U.Lohmann,T.Matsuno,M.Molina,N.Nicholls,J.Overpeck,G.Raga,V.Ramaswamy,J.Ren,M.Rusticucci,R.Somerville,T.F.Stocker,

P.Whetton,R.A.WoodandD.Wratt,2007:TechnicalSummary.In:ClimateChange2007:ThePhysicalScienceBasis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimateChange [Solomon,S.,D.Qin,M.Manning,Z.Chen,M.Marquis,K.B.Averyt,M.TignorandH.L.Miller(eds.)]. CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,UnitedKingdom and New York,NY, USA.


2/68

(Technical Summary)

20

TS.1 21

TS.2 21

Box TS.1: 1

22

TS.2.1 23

TS.2.2 28

TS.2.3 ,

30TS.2.4

30

TS.2.5 ,

31

TS.2.6 35

TS.3 35

TS.3.1 : 35

Box TS.2: () 39

TS.3.2 : 41

Box TS.3: 43

TS.3.3 : 46

TS.3.4 50

Box TS.4: 50

Box TS.5: 52

TS.3.5 52

Box TS.6: (Orbital Forcing) 55

TS.4 56

Box TS.7: - 57

TS.4.1 :

, , 58

TS.4.2 60

TS.4.3 , ,

62

TS.4.4 62

TS.4.5 62

TS.5 64

Box TS.8: 64

TS.5.1 65

Box TS.9:

(Committed Climate Change) 66

TS.5.2 21 67

TS.5.3 71

Box TS.10: 72

TS.5.4 74

TS.5.5

76

TS.6 78

TS.6.1 78

TS.6.2 79

TS.6.3 82

TS.6.4 83


3/68

(Technical Summary)

21

TS.1

IPCC 3 (TAR) 6

.

,

,

,

. IPCC

4 WG I

.

.

.

. , ,

, , -

.

,

2006

.

IPCC WG I

(Summary for Policymakers)

. (Technical Summary)

.

3

.

2 ,

3 (, , )

4

, ,

5

6

{}

.

.

TS.2

, ,

.

.

.

65

.

(energy budget) .

.

,

( )

.

(radiative forcing) .1)

,

1) (radiative forcing)- - ,., . 1750 ,1 m2 (W/m2). , . .


4/68

(Technical Summary)

22

Box TS.1:1

IPCC.1.6.34.2) Box1(WG I) . (valueuncertainties)' (structuraluncertainties)'..,....(confidence).,.(chaotic).. .(randomerror)(systematicerror).(bias).,

.. 4.(,6),(,).(confidence)(likelihood).

IPCC.

9/10 (chance)

8/10

5/10

2/10

1/10

. 2 (levelofscientificunderstanding) .3,.2.9.22.11.

.

/ (Virtually certain) >99% (Extremely likely) >95% (Very likely) >90%

(Likely) >66% (Morelikely than not) >50% (About as likely asnot) 33~66% (Unlikely)


5/68

(Technical Summary)

23

. (+)

,

(-) . 2.2

,

.

(4.5 5.4 )

.

.

.

.

TS.2.1

.

250

.

.

8

(108) 4 (10

4

)

.

.

(precursor spe-

cies)

. ,

. (CO2)

,

. (: )

.

CO2, (CH4), (N2O)

(long-lived greenhouse gas; LLGHG)

.

.

,

.

, ,

,

(net removal) (time

scale) .

,

.

.

,

CFCs

.

TS.2.1.1 ,

CO

2

CH

4

65

.

( TS.1 TS.2 ). {2.3, 6.3~6.5, FAQ 7.1}

CO

2

, CH

4,

N

2

O

1750 1

( TS.2

). 40

+1 W/m2

2 6 .

. {2.3, 6.4}

2) IPCC.


6/68

(Technical Summary)

24

-

( x 1,000 )

TS 1 (D)CO2,CH4, N2O.

(Proxy), . 650,000

, . { 6.3 }

TS 2 () ( ) 2

CO2(a),CH4(b),N2O(c),(d).65

.(d).(age)LawDorne20

DomeC200.CO2,CH4,N2ODorneC

.d Box1600

Law Dome CO2 10 ppm . {6.4}


7/68

(Technical Summary)

25

TS.1.(globalcarbonbudget).CO2(CtC/yr),

(,CO2(CO2sink)).2004~2005CO2.

-65%,1(7.3 ). NA .

1980 1990 2000~2005

CO2 3.3 0.1 3.2 0.1 4.1 0.1

5.4 0.3 6.4 0.4 7.2 0.3

- -1.8 0.8 -2.2 0.4 -2.2 0.5

- -0.3 0.9 -1.0 0.6 -0.9 0.6

1.4

(0.4~2.3)

1.6

(0.5~2.7)NA

-1.7

(-3.4~-0.2)

-2.6

(-4.3~-0.9)NA

CO

2

280 ppm

2005 379 ppm .

8000 CO2 20 ppm

. ~1

10 ppm

. 1750 CO2

100 ppm . CO2 10

(1995~2005 : 1.9 ppm/yr)

(1960~2005 : 1.4 ppm/yr) . {2.3, 6.4,

6.5}

CO

2

+1.660.17 W m

-2

.

. 1995 2005 10

CO2 CO2 20%

. {2.3, 6.4, 6.5}

CO2

CO2

CO2. 1750 CO2

2/3 1/3

. CO2

45% 30%

. CO2 30

30% .

20%

. {7.3}

CO

2

( TS.3 ).

CO2 3) 1990 6.40.4

GtC/yr 2000~2005 7.20.3 GtC/yr

. CO2

1990 0.5~2.7 GtC/yr, 1.6

Gt/yr4). TS.1 CO2

. {2.3, 6.4, 7.3, FAQ 7.1}

1980 , CO

2

( TS.1

) 50

( TS.1 CO

2

).

CO

2

.

.

1980 1990

1 GtC/yr .

CO2(pCO2)

CO2 .

, . {5.4, 7.3}

, , , , ,

.

3) CO2 , , . 1 GtC 3.67 GtCO2

.

4) 7.3 , 65%

.


8/68

(Technical Summary)

26

.

.

CO2

,

-

(0)

.

{7.3}

CO2

TS.3.CO2

()5().

51972,1982,1987,1997ENSO

(perturbations) .

5 , 0.15

ppm . CO2

CO2

. { 7.4}

CO

2

()

CO

2

,

( TS.3

).

. CO2

CO2

. -(ElNio-Southern Oscillation:

ENSO) , , ,

CO2

. {7.3}

CO2

. CO2 (

) .

. ( )

.

TS.5.4 . {7.3}

2005 1774 ppb,

.

1 580 ppb 730 ppb

2 1000 ppb

8 .

1970 1980

1%/yr , 1990

, 1999~2005 6

0 .

.

, (OH)

. 3

( 14CO)

. 1993

. (2.3, 7.4, FAQ

7.1}

+0.48 0.05 W/m

2

.

CO2

. {2.3}

,

.

.


9/68

(Technical Summary)

27

. , ,

, , ,

.

, 65

( TS.1), 1750

,

.

{2.3, 6.4, 7.4}

15

,

. 1996 2001

.

.

. {7.4}

2005 N

2

O 319 ppb,

18 . N

2

O

1 0.8 ppb .

N2O

11,500 10 ppb .

{2.3, 6.4, 6.5}

N

2

O +0.16

0.02 W m

-2

,

,

. N2O 40%

. {2.3, 7.4}

TS.2.1.3 (halocarbon),,

CFCs HCFCs(hydrochlorofluorocarbons)

.

, CFC-11 CFC-113

. 3

(firn core)

. CFCs HCFCs

(in situ) . {2.3}

2005

+0.32 0.03 W m

-2

, CFC-12 3

.

12%

. {2.3}

(hydrofluo-

rocarbons: HFCs), (perfluorocarbons: PFCs),

(SF

6

) .

2005 +0.017 W m-2

. {2.3}

, ,

.

,

, (,

), .

. (in-situ meas-

urements)

.

, 20

. {7.4}

+0.35[+0.25~+0.65]

W m

-2

, .

3

. ,

.

3


10/68

(Technical Summary)

28

. {2.3, 7.4}

.

. -

, (NOx)

(peroxyacetylnitrate)

,

. 1988

. 2003

. {Box

7.4}

. 3

-0.050.10 W m

-2

, . 1980

1990

.

1980 4%

,

. ,

.

{2.3}

.

.

1% .

. {2.5}

,

+0.070.05 W m

-2

.

.

.

. {2.3}

TS.2.2

, 3

. 3

.

.

-0.50.4 W m

-2

,

(medium-low) .

, .

,

. ,

, ,

. , ,

( TS.4 )

.

, 3

.

,

-0.40.2 W m-2

,

-0.050.05 W m-2

, +0.20.15 W m-2

,

+0.030.12 W m-2

, -0.10.1 W

m-2

, -0.10.2 W m-2

.

2

1980~2000

. {2.4, 6.6}

,

3

.

0

. .

.


11/68

(Technical Summary)

29

2001 1 ~ 3

2001 8 ~ 10

TS.4.()20011~3(+

).()20018~10.

. ( 2.4.2 ). { 2.11}

. {2.4}

Water cloud

(indirect cloud albedo

effect) (3 1

(first indirect effect) ).

-0.7 [-0.3~-1.8] W m

-2

. 3 ,

.

-

.

. 3

, ,

. 3

.

{2.4, 7.5, 9.2}

(cloud

lifetime effect), (semi-direct effect),


12/68

(Technical Summary)

30

- (aerosol-icecloud interaction)

.

. {2.4, 7.5}

TS.2.3,

+0.01 [+0.003 ~+0.03] W m

-2

, .

3

,

.

.

. {2.6}

0.20.2 W m

-2

. 3

. - .

.

+0.10.1 W m

-2

.3

,

.

(mapping) ,

(parameter) ,

.

.

.

. {2.5}

.

(, , ) , , ,

.

.

(

) , .

{2.5, 7.2, 9.3, Box 11.4}

. {2.5}

TS.2.4

28

.

0.08

11 .

. (overlapping)

.

.

(

) (

). {2.7}

1750

+0.12 [+0.06~+0.3] W/m

2

3 ,

.

1610 ( : Maunder Minimum)

,

(Proxy)

(solar magnetic flux)

,

,

.

3

,

. {2.7, 6.6}


13/68

(Technical Summary)

31

.

(

)

. ,

,

1991 1994

.

. {2.7}

.

.

/

,

.

1991

. 1991

,

. {2.7, 6.4, 6.6, 9.2}

TS.2.5 ,

3 ,

1750

+1.6 [+0.6~+2.4] W m

-2

(+)

. 3 ,

.

TS.5

.

. +0.6~+2.4 W m-2

+

.

+2.630.26 W m-2

,

.

, ,

,

.

.

. (:

, ,

)

(:

) . {2.7, 2.9}

(Global Warming Potential; GWP)

( TS.2 ).

(: 100)

, .

. {2.10}


14/68

(Technical Summary)

32

(RF)

90

(W m

-2

)

RF

RF

W m

-2

)

(W m

-2

)

~

~

~

~

~

~

TS.5.(a) 2005(RF)90% . RF

,,(LOSU)2.9

.,N2O,()..

.2.9

. . .

.(b)(a)

..(-)

. {2.9.1, 2.9.2; 2.20}

,

.

.

. -


15/68

(Technical Summary)

33

()

(Wm-2ppb-1)

SAR(100)

20 100 500

CO2 a b

1.4x10-5

1 1 1 1

c

CH4 12c

3.7x10-4

21 72 25 7.6

N2O 114 3.03x10-3

310 289 298 153

CFC-11 CCl3F 45 0.25 3,800 6,730 4,750 1,620

CFC-12 CCl2F2 100 0.32 8,100 11,000 10,900 5,200

CFC-13 CClF3 640 0.25 10,800 14,400 16,400

CFC-113 CCl2FCClF2 85 0.3 4,800 6,540 6,130 2,700

CFC-114 CClF2CClF2 300 0.31 8,040 10,000 8,730

CFC-115 CClF2CF3 1,700 0.18 5,310 7,370 9,990

Halon-1301 CBrF3 65 0.32 5,400 8,480 7,140 2,760Halon-1211 CBrClF2 16 0.3 4,750 1,890 575

Halon-2402 CBrF2CBrF2 20 0.33 3,680 1,640 503

CCl4 26 0.13 1,400 2,700 1,400 435

CH3Br 0.7 0.01 17 5 1

CH3CCl3 5 0.06 506 146 45

HCFC-22 CHClF2 12 0.2 1,500 5,160 1,810 549

HCFC-123 CHCl2CF3 1.3 0.14 90 273 77 24

HCFC-124 CHClFCF3 5.8 0.22 470 2,070 609 185

HCFC-141b CH3CCl2F 9.3 0.14 2,250 725 220

HCFC-142b CH3CClF2 17.9 0.2 1,800 5,490 2,310 705

HCFC-225ca CHCl2CF2CF3 1.9 0.2 429 122 37

HCFC-225cb CHClFCF2CClF2 5.8 0.32 2,030 595 181

HFC)

HFC-23 CHF3 270 0.19 11,700 12,000 14,800 12,200

HFC-32 CH2F2 4.9 0.11 650 2,330 675 205

HFC-125 CHF2CF3 29 0.23 2,800 6,350 3,500 1,100

HFC-134a CH2FCF3 14 0.16 1,300 3,830 1,430 435

HFC-143a CH3CF3 52 0.13 3,800 5,890 4,470 1,590

HFC-152a CH3CHF2 1.4 0.09 140 437 124 38

HFC-227ea CF3CHFCF3 34.2 0.26 2,900 5,310 3,220 1,040

HFC-236fa CF3CH2CF3 240 0.28 6,300 8,100 9,810 7,660

HFC-245fa CHF2CH2CF3 7.6 0.28 3,380 1030 314

HFC-365mfc CH3CF2CH2CF3 8.6 0.21 2,520 794 241

HFC-43-10mee CF3CHFCHFCF2CF3 15.9 0.4 1,300 4,140 1,640 500

PFC)

SF6 3,200 0.52 23,900 16,300 22,800 32,600

NF3 740 0.21 12,300 17,200 20,700

PFC-14 CF4 50,000 0.10 6,500 5,210 7,390 11,200

PFC-116 C2F6 10,000 0.26 9,200 8,630 12,200 18,200

TS.2.CO2 , ( ) (GWP) { 2.14}

.

(thermal

inertia) . {2.8, 9.2}

.

~

(Northern Annular Mode; NAM)

(North Atlantic Oscillation; NAO)

(3.1 Box TS.2 ).

,

,

. {2.8, 7.5, 9.2}


16/68

() (Wm-2ppb-1)

SAR(100)

20 100 500

PFC-218 C3F8 2,600 0.26 7,000 6,310 8,830 12,500

PFC-318 c-C4F8 3,200 0.32 8,700 7,310 10,300 14,700

PFC-3-1-10 C4F10 2,600 0.33 7,000 6,330 8,860 12,500

PFC-4-1-12 C5F12 4,100 0.41 6,510 9,160 13,300

PFC-5-1-14 C6F14 3,200 0.49 7,400 6,600 9,300 13,300

PFC-9-1-18 C10F18 >1,000d

0.56 >5,500 >7,500 >9,500

SF5CF3 800 0.57 13,200 17,700 21,200

Fluorinated ethers)

HFE-125 CHF2OCF3 136 0.44 13,800 14,900 8,490

HFE-134 CHF2OCHF2 26 0.45 12,200 6,320 1,960

HFE-143a CH3OCF3 4.3 0.27 2,630 756 230

HCFE-235da2 CHF2OCHClCF3 2.6 0.38 1,230 350 106

HFE-245cb2 CH3OCF2CHF2 5.1 0.32 2,440 708 215

HFE-245fa2 CHF2OCH2CF3 4.9 0.31 2,280 659 200

HFE-254cb2 CH3OCF2CHF2 2.6 0.28 1,260 359 109

HFE-347mcc3 CH3OCF2CF2CF3 5.2 0.34 1,980 575 175

HFE-347pcf2 CHF2CF2OCH2CF3 7.1 0.25 1,900 580 175

HFE-356pcc3 CH3OCF2CF2CHF2 0.33 0.93 386 110 33

HFE-449sl

(HFE-7100) C4F9OCH3 3.8 0.31 1,040 297 90HFE-569sf2(HFE-7200)

C4F9OC2H5 0.77 0.3 207 59 18

HFE-43-10pccc124(H-Galden 1040x)

CHF2OCF2OC2F4OCHF2 6.3 1.37 6,320 1,870 569

HFE-236ca12(HG-10)

CHF2OCF2OCHF2 12.1 0.66 8,000 2,800 860

HFE-338pcc13(HG-01)

CHF2OCF2CF2OCHF2 6.2 0.87 5,100 1,500 460

Perfluoropolyethers)

PFPMIE CF3OCF(CF3)CF2OCF2OCF3 800 0.65 7,620 10,300 12,400

-

CH3OCH3 0.015 0.02 1 1


17/68

(Technical Summary)

35

, , -

.

.

. {2.9}

TS.2.6

.

,

.

.

. (

(surface forcing)')

,

.

.

- ,

. {2.9, 7.2, 7.5, 9.5}

TS.3

4 , ,

,

, ,

.

1850 .

.

. , ( )

(proxy) .

TS.3.1:

4 , / ,

, , ,

. 3 ,

, ,

, , , ,

. (extreme

climate) ,

4 , , , ( )

. {3.2~3.4, 3.8}

3 , ,

.

,

, ,

.

(atmospheric teleconnections)

. (climate anomaly)

.

, , (preferred

blocking anticyclone),

. {3.53.7}

TS.3.1.1

2005 1998 1850

. 1998

1997~1998

2005 .

12(1995~2006) 11 - 1996 -

1850 . {3.2}


18/68

(Technical Summary)

36

1950

. 100 (1906~2005) 0.740.18

3 (1901~2000) 100

0.60.2 . 1850~1899

2001~2005

0.760.19. 50

(0.130.03) 100

. 3

.

, (SST)

( TS.6 ) {3.2}

,

( 10

0.006 , 0).

.

.

. ,

, (Diurnal Temperature Range: DTR)

. {3.2}

. 3

1950~1993 0.1/10

. ,

1979 2004 ,

.

. {3.2}

, 1958~2005

1979~2005

,

. 3

( TS.7).

.

. MSU (Microwave Sounding

Unit) AMSU (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit)

1979

,

. 3

, , ,

( )

. MSU 2

. MSU

0.12 ~ 0.19/10

1979

0.16 ~ 0.18/10.

. {3.4}

,

, 1979 0.3

~ 0.6/10 ( TS.7 )

.

(1958 )

. 1979

10 .

.

. {3.4}

TS.3.1.2 ,

.

, 20

(10 0.27

vs 0.13). {3.2}

30

,

. (12~2)

(3~5) . 100

. .

1925 1945 .


19/68

(Technical Summary)

37

. {3.2}

1961

-1990

()

(10)

10 5-95

() (/10)

TS.6.()1979~2005()(,).

.() (). 1961~1990

(), (). 25(),50(), 100(), 150()

. ()10 ( 3.A ) 90% . 1850~1899 2001~2005 0.760.19. {FAQ 3.1, 1}

.

, ,

. 1979

1990

,

.

,

, ,

.

1970

1990

.

. {3.2, 3.5}


20/68

(Technical Summary)

38

.

NAO(Box TS.2

) .

(Annular Modes)', NAM(Northern

Annular Modes) SAM(Southern Annular Modes)

.

.

NAO NAM

.

. , 1960

SAM

,

. -

.

ENSO ENSO .

1976~1977 10 (Pacific

Decadal Oscillation; PDO)

ENSO ,

. , ENSO -

(Pacific-North America)

.

. 20

(1900~1924; 1947~1976)

(1925~1946; 1977~2003). {3.2, 3.5, 3.6}

.

,

, (

10%) ,

( 10%)

(Box TS.5).

(Cold night) ,

( 76%) 1951~2003

. {3.8}

20 .

2003

. (6~8)

1780 (

1807 1.4 ).

2003

.

.

. {3.8, 3.9}

~

TS.7. (d), (c), ~ (b),(a)1979~1997.

7.

. { 3.17}


21/68

(Technical Summary)

39

NAO NAM

, .

Box. TS.2.1 . NAO NAM .

.

,

.

Box TS.2: ()

,

(index)

..

- (ENSO):

, 2~ 7 . (Tahiti)

(Darwin)

SST . ENSO

(teleconnection).

(North Atlantic Oscillation; NAO):

(Azores) ,

.

,,

(Box TS.2, 1)

(Northern Annular Mode; NAM):

.

.

(Southern Annular Mode; SAM):

. NAMSAM

.

-(Pacific-NorthAmerican;PNA):

.

10(PacificDecadal Oscillation; PDO):SST,(NorthPacific Index;NPI).

.

.20

.(TS.4, Box TS.7

), . {3.6, 8.4}

, , ,

. {3.8}

TS.3.1.3 :,,,

( TS.8).

1976

.

1988 2004 10 1.2

0.3%(95% ) .

SST ,

.

. {3.4}

.

, .

20

(

TS.8).

, 3 .

{3.4}

ENSO . DTR

( )

.

. 1980 1990


22/68

(Technical Summary)

40

( ENSO

)

,

. {3.4}

(global dimming)'

1990 .

1970 1990

(urban bias) .

1990 .

a) , : 1988-2004

( )

1.2 /10

17/10

T2~T12()

%/10

TS.8. (a)()1988~2004

,(b)

, (c) (80N ~ 80S)

. 1982~2004 ()

. (/10).

{3.4, 3.203.21}

.

( )

. {3.4}

1990 2005

( TS.9).

, ,

. , , ,

.

, .

.5) {3.3}

.

,

1950 (95 )

. (50 1)

( TS.10

). {3.8}

1970

SST .

.

1970

.

.

1970

.

SST

( TS.11 ).

ENSO 10 .

. 1995

2005 9 (1981~2000 )

. {3.8}

5)TAR(chapter) 11.


23/68

(Technical Summary)

41

%/100

%/10

1901~2005

1979~2005

(mm)

TS.9.()1901~2005(%/100)1979~2005(%/10)

.

. % 1961~1990

. () 1961~1990

1990~2005.

10(3.A

). {3.3, 3.12 3.13}

1970

,

.

.6)

, .

TS.3.2:

10%

. 7%

. 49% .

. 90%

.

. (snow cover)

,

.

. {4.1}

75% .

, (mountain snowpack),

,

.

. 3

,

, , ,

,

,

.

.

1961

1993 . {4.1}

6) (Palmer Drought Severity Index; PDSI) .

PDSI , , , .


24/68

(Technical Summary)

42

1951~2003 ( /10)

TS.10.() 1951~2003 (,95 ) (%/10).

. () 1961~1990 (%).

% (22.5%) % . 10 ( 3.A ). { 3.39}

1961~

1990

TS.11. (10N ~ 20N) SST 1961~1990 ().{ 3.33}

. 1966 2005

11 12

1980 5%

( TS.12). ,

(proxies)

40

. 4

40~60N

. {4.2}


25/68

(Technical Summary)

43

Box TS.3:

(icesheet).

..

.

.,,

.

. {4.6}

(icestream)()()

.

. {4.6}

.,

.

.(oceancavity).

,1 10m/yr .

. {4.6}

,,.7m57m.

.1

.

,.,

1.

,,

. {4.6, 6.4}

TAR,(accumulation)(ablation)

.

.. {8.2}

(mountain snow water equivalent)

(snow pack)

.

.

.

(mountain snow) 1950

75% .

.

( )

. {4.2}

10

.

, , ,

,

. 1980

3 .

, , ,

.

0.04 m/yr 0.02 m/yr

. {4.7}

20

7 , 15

. 20

0.3 m . 1956 1990

0.2 m . {4.7}

150

, 100

5.81.9 , 100

6.51.4 .

,

. {4.3}

1978 2.70.6 ( TS.13

).


26/68

(Technical Summary)

44

7.42.4%/10.

1970

.

.

,

(

).

. {4.4}

3~4

10

6

(km

2

)

3~4

(1988~2004) ~ (1967~1987)

TS.12. () 3~4 .

(snow cover index)(1972 )

(1972 ) . 10

(3.A ), 5~95%

.()(1967~1987)(1988~2004)

3~4.

. CRU(Climatic

Research Unit) CRUTEM2v 1967~2004

3~405.0

5. { 4.2, 4.3}

20

.

(

) 1961~2003 (Sea

Level Equivalent: SLE) 0.500.18 mm/yr,

1991~2003 0.770.22 mm/yr . 20

1970

. {4.5}

(1979~2005)

(1979~2005)

(1979~2005)

TS.13.1979~2005 (a) , (b)

,(c).

, 10 ( 3.A

),.(a)-6020 103

km2/yr -7.4%/10 . (b)

337.4103 km2/yr ( -2.7%/10), 95%

.(c)5.69.2103 km2/yr

.

{ 4.8 4.9}


27/68

(Technical Summary)

45

TS.14.(;1989~2005)(;1992~2005).,

./.J,K,H,SEJakobshavn(J),

Kangerdlugssuaq(K),Helheim(H),(SE),vs.KH

Gt/yr. . 30 cm

30cm . { 4.17 4.19 }

, ,

.

, ,

. (

km km )

.

.

2002 Larsen B Ice Shelf

.

.

(Larsen B )

.

{4.6}

10

.

1993 2003

. 10

.

. ,

( TS. 14 ).

1993 2003 -50~-100 Gt/yr(

+0.14~+0.28 mm/yr )

, 2005

.

. 1961~2003

25 Gt/yr 60

Gt/yr(-0.07 ~+0.17 mm/ yr SLE).

1961~2003 100 Gt/yr 200

Gt/yr(-0.27~+0.56 mm/yr SLE), 1993~2003

+50~-200 Gt/yr(-0.14~+0.55 mm/yr SLE)

.


28/68

(Technical Summary)

46

, , ,

. {4.6, 4.8}

TS.3.3:

.

, ,

. 1,000

,

( TS.15 ).

. ~1

. SST

.

. CO2

. {5.1, 7.3}

.

. (:

, , , )

,

.

(Box TS.4 ). {5.5}

,

- (signal-to-noise ratio)

. 3 ,

,

, ,

(water mass) ,

. {5.5}

TS.15.1961~20031993~2003

. 1961~2003,

1993~2003.

(+) , ,

,

,

.90%.

(heatgain).

. { 5.4}

TS.3.3.1

1955

80

. 790

( TS. 16).

, .

, 10

.

( ) 10

. 1961~2003 0~3,000

m 14.1x102

J 0.2

W/m2( ) .

1993~2003 0~700 m

0.50.18 W/m2.

1961~2003 1993~2003

2004 2005 2003

. {5.1~5.3}


29/68

(Technical Summary)

47

(0~700M)

(10

22

J)

TS.16.0~700m(1022J).3

.

1961~1990,

1993~2003.

90%.

90%.{

5.1}

700 m

. 45N

.

(deep overturning circulation cell)

, , (Atlantic

Ocean Basin) .

.

.

( /)

. ,

10 ,

. , ,

50 .

ENSO , PDO

. {5.2, 5.3}

10

. {5.3}

TS.3.3.2

1750

pH 0.1 .

7)

CO2 CO2 .

CO2 CO2

pH (,

). pH

.

20 pH

10 0.02 pH

. pH

, (aragonite,

) .

pH CO2

CO2

. {5.4, 7.3}

( 100~1000 m)

1975~1995 .

. {5.4}

( TS.17

),

.

.

(freshening) ,

, , ,

.

500 m

. ,

, ,

. {5.2}

7) (acidity) pH . pH = -log(H+). pH 1 H+ 10.


30/68

(Technical Summary)

48

TS.3.3.3

1961~2003 ,

(Tide gauge)

1.80.5 mm/yr ( TS. 18 ).

5~95% .

(1955~1998)

(m)

TS.17. ( )

(1955~1998). 0.01/10.

0.05/10, (0) .

0.005/10 , -0.005/10

. { 5.5}

0.420.12 mm/yr 10

. , ,

0.70.5 mm/yr ( TS.3 ).

40

1.10.5 mm/yr ,

(TAR ). 1961~2003

. {4.8, 5.5}

TOPEX/Poseidon 1993~2003

3.10.7

mm/yr.

(1.60.5

mm/yr) (1.20.4

mm/yr) 2.80.7 mm/yr

.

( )

. 1961~2003

1993~2003 10

. 1993~2003

1950

. {5.5, 9.5}

, 19

~20

.

1870

1870~2000

.

2,000

0.0~0.2 mm/yr .

(proxy)

, AD 1~1900

0.25 m .

19

~20 . {5.5}

mm

TS.18..1870

,1950,

1992 1961~1990

. 90%

. { 5.13}

1993

.

. 1992


31/68

(Technical Summary)

49

(mm/yr)

1961 ~ 2003 1993 ~ 2003

0.42 0.12 0.5 0.2 1.6 0.5 .5 0.7

0.50 0.18 0.5 0.2 0.77 0.22 0.7 0.3

0.05 0.12a 0.21 0.07

a

0.14 0.41a 0.21 0.35

a

1.1 0.5 1.2 0.5 2.8 0.7 2.6 0.8

1.8 0.5

()

3.1 0.7

()

( - ) 0.7 0.7 0.3 1.0

a (9.5)

TS.3. . 9.5 10.A. 1993~2003

40 . {5.3 9.2 }

( TS.19 ). 10

,

. , ENSO NAO

- . 1992

50

10

. {5.5}

1975

.

20

.

.

.

ENSO, NAO

. {5.5}

Kwajalein Atoll

(1993~2003)

(mm)

TS.19.() Kwajalein(844 N, 16744E) 1950~2000

(mm). (

),,

. 1 6 ,

.()TOPEX/Poseidon

1993~2003

(mm/yr) . { 5.15 5.18}


32/68

(Technical Summary)

50

Box TS.4:

(),(),

...20

.1990.

,.

,,,.

NAO

.

,.

,100

..

.

.,,.

100m.

.100.

.

.

.,

.

.

.

,

.,(stormsurge)'

.

. {5.5}

TS.3.4

3.4 , ,

.

.

.

. {3.9}

, ,

. {3.2, 3.9, 4.4~4.8, 5.2,

5.5}

SST .

(thermal in-

ertia)

. {3.2}

.

{3.2, 3.8}

1979

.

,

(likely).

{3.4, 9.4}

.

. , , ,

, ,

. {3.2, 3.9,4.24.5, 4.7}

1993


33/68

(Technical Summary)

51

a20C(1960)

D

SRESb 21

(warmer days and nights)

, (colder

days and nights)

c

e

* e

,

d

()e

* e

(warm spell)/:

(

)

1970

*

1970

( )

f

h

:a 3.7.b SRES IPCCSpecial Report on EmissionScenarios (IPCC ). SRES Box.

c ( 10%)d ( 10%)e /f . 1%.

g {5.5.2.6}. . {9.5.2}

h 2100 {10.6}. .

TS.4. 20,.D* .

,

.

{3.8, 5.5, 9.7, 11.2-11.9; 3.7, 3.8, 9.4}

.

1993~2003 3.10.7

mm/yr .

, ,

.

.

1961~2003

. {5.5, 3.9}

,

.

,

.

,

,

.


34/68

(Technical Summary)

52

Box TS.5. 1.

.

Box TS.5:

(:2003

, 2005 7(Mumbai)

.,

.

,150

,

.

.

.

.

(,24)

. (extreme).

(probabilitydistribution function;PDF), (normal)'

(Gaussian)'((bellcurve)').BoxTS.51PDF,

()

.(:)(

). .

IPCC2(SAR).3

,

.3,,

(:).

,()PDF

.3,

(TS.4).(:),.(:

).

.,

.

,

. {3.3,

3.4, 3.9, 5.2}

.

.

.

,

.

,

. ,

,

. SST

. , 1970

. ,

,

. {3.3,

3.8, 9.5}

TS.3.5

,

,

, ,


35/68

(Technical Summary)

53

.

.

(, , , )

()

.

.

,

, ,

. {6.2}

20 500

50

,

1300

.

(

. TS.20 ). ,

, (growth

band) (proxy)

,

.

1

. 3

, ,

, , ,

.

1850

.

. {6.6,

6.7}

TAR (proxy),

,

TAR

. 12~14 17~19

.

(likely). ,

17

.

11 TAR

TAR

. {6.6]

1 CO

2

.

(


36/68

(Technical Summary)

54

(, 1961~1990)

Proxy Record Locations: AD 1000

Proxy Record Locations: AD 1500

TS.20. () 1300 . 12 (proxy) ( )

.()AD1000AD1500(proxy)

(:, :, :/, : ).

6.1 6.10 , 6 . {6.10 6.11}


37/68

(Technical Summary)

55

(Milankovitch Cycle)

BoxTS.6,1.(Milankovitchcycle).

T'(), E', P

(precession),

. {FAQ 6.1, 1}

Box TS.6: (Orbital Forcing)

((isolation)')

.

.

{6.4}

(precession) 19,000 ~

23,000(quasi-periodicity)1

.,

.

, 60W/m2

(Box TS.6, 1). ()

22 24.5 ,

41,000.

(

). {6.4}

400,000100,000.

.

.400,000100,000

(Box TS.6, 1). {6.4}

(Milankovitch) .

,1.,,,

..

. ,,

. {6.4}

.

, 30,000

. {6.4, FAQ 6.1}

-

.

. 16

,

.

. 8,000

. {6.4}

. Last Glacial Maximum(LGM; dir 21,000

) (6,000 )

(random variability)

,

(Box TS.6).

.

LGM

,

. ,


38/68

(Technical Summary)

56

TS.21.125()

().(proxy).()

() () (proxy) .()

.3 .

Renland(R),(N),(S,GRIP,GISP2),CampCentury(C)

()Devon(De)Agassiz(A).Dye-3LIG(D,).{ 6.6}

,

(


39/68

(Technical Summary)

57

Box TS.7:-

-(Atmosphere-OceanGeneralCirculationModel; AOGCM),

.21

,.TAR

. {8.1}

. . {8.1}

. .

.

.,

,.,

.

. 110. {FAQ1.2, 9.4, 11.1}

Model formulation). AOGCM(:,,

).(:)

(process).AOGCMcontrolintegration

. {8.2, 8.3}

..

,,.(

)()

.()

.. . (ocean water mass

structure),,.

. . {8.3, 8.5, 8.6}

. (NAM/SAM,PNA,PDO)

.ENSO-

(Madden-Julian Oscillation).{8.4}

. .,

21

.20(:,

,,).

LGM.

.

..{6.4,

6.5, 8.1, 9.39.5}

. ()

..

,

. [8.4}

. ,

()... {8.1, 9.6, 10.5}


40/68

(Technical Summary)

58

.

(: )

.

.

(Box TS.7).

.

20 TAR

, .

.

,

, , ,

. {9.1}

TS.4.1 :,,

, , ,

. {3.2, 3.4, 9.4}

,

TAR .

,

10

.

.

. (Black Carbon Aerosol)

.

.

,

.

. ,

,

(proxy)

(

TS.22 Box TS.7) {8.2~8.4 m8.6, 9.2~9.4}

(


41/68

(Technical Summary)

59

TS.22. :. .()1906~2005101901~195010

10.(spatialcoverage)50%(-).

5 19 5~95%. 9.4,

FAQ 9.2, 8.1, 9 . {FAQ 9.2, 1}

m

. {5.2, 9.5}

.

.

. {3.3, 4.4, 8.2, 8.3, 9.5}

20

,

10 .

1961~2003

.

( TS.3 ). 1961~2003 1993~2003

,

.

1950 10

.


42/68

(Technical Summary)

60

TS.23. (a) 1901~1950

( )

,

.

,

.

.(b)

(a)

.

,

. . {

9.5}

1993~2003

.

10

. , 10

20 .

10

. 1961~2003

10

1993~2003

. {5.5, 9.5}

TS.4.2

,

.3

.

. {3.2, 3.4, 9.4}

20

. . ()

. (Coupled

Climate Model) 6


43/68

(Technical Summary)

61

12~1

(hPa/50)

(m/sec, 50)

TS.24.1955~20051012~1.(),.(),.8,

.(Geostrophic wind)

,,.9

, 8.1 . { 9.16}

3 .

20

( )

. {9.4}

50

.

.

, ( )

. ,

.

.

{8.3, 9.4}

. ,

,

. ,

2003

. {9.4}


44/68

(Technical Summary)

62

TS.4.3 ,,

, (Annular

Mode: AM) ,

,

( TS.24 )

.

(Northern Annular Mode : NAM)

.

(Southern

Annular Mode : SAM)

.

.

,

. 20

.

{3.6, 9.5, 10.3}

. 20

. 20

.

.

, ,

SST

.

(SST)

SST

. SST

SST

. {3.3, 9.5, 10.3, 11.2}

TS.4.4

1950 7

.

10

.

( 20

) (:

) . ,

20 .

(proxy)

.

{6.6, 9.3}

TS.4.5

(equilibrium cli-

mate sensitivity)

8)

3

, 30

. - CO2

( 550 ppm) 2

- 3

1.5~4.5 .

. 4

-(AOGCM) , 150

(, , )

, (

TS.25 )

. 1

LGM(Last Glacial Maximum)

.

8).


45/68

(Technical Summary)

63

()

TS.25.20(), (),proxydata(),-(AOGCM:)

. IPCC 4 (Box TS.1 ) .

{Box 10.2, 1 2}

. {8.1, 8.6, 9.6, Box 10.2}

,

2~4.5

3. 1.5

. 4.5

.

4.5

.

6 .

(positive)

20

.

.

95

. {Box 10.2}

,

.

,

.

(GCM)

- (coupled

water vapor-lapse rate feedback)9)

. , 1 1

W/m2

50% . GCM

10

,

. ( )

.

.

.

. {3.4, 8.6, 9.3, 9.4, 9.6, 10.2, Box 10.2}

, CO

2

9) .


46/68

(Technical Summary)

64

Box TS.8:

(SimpleClimateModel;SCM)

. SCM-,,,

(representation).. {8.8, 10.5}

ESMICs(EarthSystemModels of IntermediateComplexity),,

.

,

.SCMEMIC

.

,

.EMIC,

. {8.8, 10.5, 10.7}

AOGCM.,,

. 3(BoxTS.7), 20

.,(waveprocess)

,(watermass).AOGCM.AOGCM

.,AOGCMAOGCM

(). {8.2}

( TS.5 ).

.

. AOGCM

CO2 .

,

.

{10.7}

(transient climate change)

3

. (CO

2

1 /yr 2

20

) .

(parameter)

, 1

3 .

.

.

,

. {8.3, 8.6, 9.4, 9.6,

10.5}

TS.5.CO2-eq

():,

. ( )

CO2-eq(ppm)

()

350 1.0 0.5 0.61.4

450 2.1 1.0 1.43.1

550 2.9 1.5 1.94.4

650 3.6 1.8 2.45.5

750 4.3 2.1 2.86.4

1000 5.5 2.8 3.78.3

1200 6.3 3.1 4.29.4

TS.5

3 ,

.

. 10

14 AOGCM 23

.


47/68

(Technical Summary)

65

,

.

(:

)

.

,

,

.

{8.1, 8.3, 9.4, 9.5, 10.1}

3 ,

.

AOGCM

. ,

, ,

.

.

.

-

. {8.6, 9.6, 10.1, 10.3,

10.5}

SRES

(Marker)

. TAR 3

. ,

.

. ,

.

.

2000 ,

CO2 2 4 , 2001~2100

SRES ,

2100 ,

. SRES

. 1

. {10.1,

10.3}

EMICs(Earth System Models of Intermediate

Complexity)

AOGCM .

. {10.1}

TS.5.1

,

(Committed warming: Box TS.9

) .

,

. {10.3, 10.7}

IPCC

. FAR SAR 1990 ~ 2005

0.3/10 0.15/10

.10) 2

1

. TAR SAR .

0.2/10 (

TS.26) .

10) IPCC First Assessment Report,PolicymakersSummary,Second Assessment Report,TechnicalSummary18.


48/68

(Technical Summary)

66

Box TS.9:(Committed Climate Change)

,,

. (committedwarming)'.

,

. {FAQ 10.3}

.,

..

,.

.. {10. 7}

TS.26..(TS.6)(

),10.IPCCFAR()SAR(),FAR.199010.

,,SRESB1,A1B,A2(TS.32),

. 2000 ,

. { 1.1 10.4}

. {1.2, 3.2}

2000 (Box

TS.9 )

20 0.1/10

. SRES

2 (0.2

/10) .

SRES

. SRES

. 2050

SRES

(1980~1999

1.3~1.7), 1/4

.


49/68

(Technical Summary)

67

(1980~1999 2090~2099,)a

(1980~1999 2090~2099,m)

()

2000

b

0.6 0.3 - 0.9 NA

B1 1.8 1.1 - 2.9 0.18 - 0.38

A1T 2.4 1.4 - 3.8 0.20 - 0.45

B2 2.4 1.4 - 3.8 0.20 - 0.43

A1B 2.8 1.7 - 4.4 0.21 - 0.48

A2 3.4 2.0 - 5.4 0.23 - 0.51

A1FI 4.0 2.4 - 6.4 0.26 - 0.59

:a 1 , EMIC, AOGCM .

b 2000 AOGCM .

TS.6. 21 . {10.5, 10.6, 10.7}

{10.3, 10.5, 10.7}

. AOGCM SRES A1B

2000~2020 1.30.7

mm/yr , A2 B1

.

1993~2003 , 1.60.6 mm/yr

.

(2000 )

(2000 2000

)

. {10.6, 10.7}

TS.5.221

21

.

TS.5.3 .

21 (2090~2099)

,

. 6 SRES

2000

1980~1999

TS.6 .

AOGCM, ,

( TS.27 ).

3 .

{10.5}

3

-

TAR .

CO2

.

A2 , CO2 2100

1 . {7.3,

10.5}

6 SRES 1980~1999

21 (2090~2099)

(spread)

5~95 TS.6 .

70~75% .

AOGCM

3 .

3

. B1 SRES 21

1961~2003

(1.80.5 mm/yr) .

,

0.02 m

0.15 m.

.

. {10.6, 10.7}

, 2090~2099

TAR 10 , TAR


50/68

(Technical Summary)

68

2090~2099

AOGCMs 5~95 (normal fit)

AOGCM

AOGCM , MAGICC

AOGCMs

MAGICC ,

MAGICC (PU),

MAGICC , /

BERN2.5CC

BERN2.5CC ,

BERN2.5CC , /

Wigley 2001

Stott 2002/2006

Knutti 2003

Furrer 2007

Harris 2006

C4MIP

AOGCM

AOGCM +60 , -40

( )

m

TS.27. () 6SRES 1980~1999 2090~2099

. AOGCM , -40% ~ +60% . A2

C4MIP(CoupledCarbonCycleClimate Model IntercomparisonProject) (

),EMIC().(10.29).()6SRES 2090~2099(1980~1999) .

(spread)5~95% , . AOGCM

(10.A).

. . { 10.29 10.33}

2100

2090~2099 .

TAR

,

, 1.65

5~95% TAR

2 . TAR

TAR

. {10.6, 10.7}

21

. , , 21

.

. 21

.

.

,


51/68

(Technical Summary)

69

()

TS.28.1980~1999 21 . SRES B1(),A1B(),A2() AOGCM2020~202910() 2090~2099 10()()

. AOGCM EMIC

.SRES.

. { 10.8 10.28 }

. 21

.

.

,

.

.

,

0.1~0.2 m .

. {4.6, 10.6}

TAR ,

( TS.28 ).

(Box

TS.7).

.

{8.3~8.5, 10.3, 11.2~11.9}

21

.

,

.

. {10.3,

11.2~11.9}

.

(MOC)

.

,

.

.

.


52/68

(Technical Summary)

70

( TS.28 ) {10.3}

21 MOC

. SRES A1B ,

2100 25 (0~

50 ).

. MOC

,

.

Labrador Sea Water

.

AOGCM MOC

. , MOC

21

. MOC

. {8.7, 10.3}

21

. 2070~2099

A1B , AOGCM

0.08 m ,

25%.

.

TAR

.

, ,

.{10.6}

TAR

. TAR

.

.

(: )

. 3

14

(12~2 6~8)

. (extreme)

20 95

. 21

90%

, 40% .

, ,

,

. 8 ,

20

,

. {8.5, 10.3}

(cold air out-

break) 50~100 .

9

20 (frost) 21

.

. {10.3, FAQ 10.1}

. (thaw

depth)

. {10.3}

(SRES A1B, A2, B1)

, 1

21

.

.

, A2 21

.

. -

,

,

. ,

.

21

. {8.6, 10.3, Box 10.1}


53/68

(Technical Summary)

71

BoxTS.10:(Downscaling)

AOGCM , , nested) empirical

downscaling technique) . AOGCM.

,.

. {11.10}

.(subpolarregion)

,.

,.

ENSO,NAO,(blocking),(thermohalinecirculation),.

,.

.

. {Box 11.1, 11.2~11.9}

,

(Hadley Circulation)

(NAM/NAO SAM)

(Box TS.2 ).

NAM/NAO SAM

. SAM

, .

,

, ,

,

.

.

. {3.6, 10.3}

,

SST ,

.

ENSO

.

100

. {10.3}

100 km~20 km

(

)

. ,

,

,

,

,

.

. 1970

. {10.3, 8.5, 3.8}

TAR ,

.

, (A1B

2100 20%)

. 50

,

.

(20~40)

.

( TS.30

). {8.3, 10.3, 11.2-11.9}

(Signal)

. {10.3, 11.1}

,


54/68

(Technical Summary)

72

20

(A1B )

TS.29.1906~2005:10()2001~2050.1901~1950

.,20

, ( TS.22 ).

SRESA1B 5~95. (, 10)20105~95.1010.,

1996~20052000.,

. 14 58 ( ), 5(14 )19

( ), 18 47( ).{FAQ 9.2.11, Box11.1 1)

. ,

. {11.2~11.9}

TS.5.3

SRES 2000~2050

1

.

, 21

20 ( TS.29 ).

, 2030

20 10

2

. SRES

( TD.32) .

TS.28

. SRES

2000~2050

()

. {11.1}

21 ,

( TS.30).

,

(transition

zone) .


55/68

(Technical Summary)

73

12~2 6~8

12~2 6~8

(2090 ~ 2099, A1B ) 12~2 (2090 ~ 2099, A1B ) 6~8

TS.30.1979~1993 (mm/day) ( ) ( ) SRES A1B

1980~1999(%)2090~2099().12~1,

6~8.66%.

90% . { 8.5,10.9 }

, .

.

,

. {11.2~11.5}

21

( TS.30 ).

(South Island) Tierra del Fuego

, ,

,

. {11.2, 11.6,

11.7}

. -

, .

,

.

.

-

,

. {8.3, 11.2, 11.4 ,11.6}


56/68

(Technical Summary)

74

CO

2

CO

2

TS.31. 5 EMIC . CO2

750ppm 21000 .()

CO2 CO2 . () . ()

. { 10.35}

TS.5.4

CO

2

CO

2

,

. TAR ,

. SRES A2 ,

21 CO2

10~25%

, 2100 1 .

, CO2

CO2 .

. {7.3, 10.4}

CO

2

. SRES

21 pH 0.14~0.35

( ),

0.1 .

. SRES

21 600 ppm

CO2 CaCO3 .

.

CaCO3

.

. {Box 7.3, 10.4}

(Box TS.9).


57/68

(Technical Summary)

75

(i)

(time lag),

(ii)

.

,

,

. CH4, CO

, N2O

1 ,

1 (SF6, PFCs). CO2

. CO2

CO2

CO2

. CaCO3

CO2

30,000~35,000

. EMIC

CO2 1000

,

.

750 ppm

CO2

2100 0 .

CO2

(650~700 ppm) 2 (

560 ppm) 100 ~400 ( TS.31 ) {7.3, 10.7}

-CO

2

.

CH

4

.

CH4

.

CH4

.

. , ,

(: VOC)

.

.

OH

,

.{7.4, 4.7}

.

. ,

. 2

VOC

.

.

VOC

.

(dimethyl sulphide)(

) (sea salt)

.

. {7.5}

CO

2

.

.

.

10, 20

0.8 .

.

.


58/68

(Technical Summary)

76

SRES

20

TS.32.SRESA2(),A1B(),B1()(1980~1999).20

.A1BB1(BoxTS.9)2100.2000.

.,1.

.,

( 10.5 ). { 10.4}

. {Box 7.4, 7.6, 10.7}

,

.

.

,

, ,

, ,

.

.

.

{Box 7.4}

TS.5.5

0.5~0.6

. 2000

20

100 , 2100

0.6

(1980~1999 )( TS.32 ). B1

A1B 21

,

0.5, 100

. {10.3, 10.7}

. CO

2

CO

2

. -

, CO2 450 ppm

21

670 [630~710] ppm GtC 490

[375~600] GtC . CO2 1000 ppm

,

1415 [1340~1490] GtC

1100 [980~1250] GtC . {7.3,

10.4}

A1B 2100

, 2030

0.3~0.8 m (1980~1999 ),


59/68

(Technical Summary)

77

. {10.7}

2100

. A1B

2100 ,

0.03~0.21 m/100 .

1.9~4.6 1

,

. 7 m

.

125,000

.

4~6 m

. {6.4, 10.7}

.

,

. {4.6, 10.7}

,

.

. {10.7}

21 MOC

,

MOC

.

.

100

.

MOC

.

( )

. {8.7, FAQ 10.2, 10.3}


60/68

(Technical Summary)

78

TS.6

TS.6.1,(Drivers)

:

CO2 CH4, (positive)

65

. {6.4}

, , 250

. {2.3, 7.3, 7.4}

, ,

(flaring) CO2 1990

6.40.4 GtCyr-1

2000~2005 7.20.3

GtCyr-1

. {7.3}

40 CO2, CH4, N2O

2000 .

{6.4}

CO2

(, CO2

) 50~60% .

CO2

. {7.3}

()

. {2.9, 9.2}

, ,

,

1750 (net warning

influence) . {2.9}

. {2.5, 2.7}

,

. {2.4, 7.5}

. {2.3}

20

. {2.4}

CH4

. {7.4}

. {2.3}

-

. {2.5}

1

.

{2.7}


61/68

(Technical Summary)

79

TS.6.2

TS.6.2.1

. 12

11 1850

. {3.2}

1970 ,

. {3.2}

.

{3.8}

. 1958~2005

.

{3.4}

1900~2005

. {3.3}

. {3.8}

1970

. {3.3}

1980 .

{3.4}

,

.

(residual errors)

. {3.4}

1979

. {3.5, 3.6}

. {3.4}

DTR

,

. {3.2}

,

. {3.3}

, .

. {3.3}

.

. {3.8}

. {3.8}

, , ,

. {3.8}


62/68

(Technical Summary)

80

TS.6.2.2, ,

. 19

.

. {4.5, 4.6}

.

150 .

{4.2, 4.3}

1978 ,

,

. {4.4}

1990

(Amundsen shelf ice) .

, Larsen B Ice Shelf 2002

. {4.6}

1980

3 . 1990

7% , 20

0.3 m . {4.7}

1960

.

(snow water equivalent data)

. {4.2}

. {4.4}

, - ,

. {4.5}

. {4.6}

(basal process)

. {4.6}

TS.6.2.3

( ) 1955

. {5.2}

,

. ,

,

. {5.2}

20 .

19 20

. 1961~2003 1993~2003

. {5.5}

. {5.5}


63/68

(Technical Summary)

81

1993~2003

.

{5.5}

. {5.5}

1750 CO2

. {5.4, 7.3}

, ,

10 (Moderate)

. {5.2, 5.5}

MOC . {Box 5.1}

1961~2003

. {5.5}

TS.6.2.4

125,000

4~6 m . {6.4}

,

. {6.4}

3

. {6.4}

. {6.4}

20 500

50 , 1300 50

. {6.6}

2000

. {6.6}

.

. {6.4}

, ,

. {6.4}

. {6.6}

1

,

(proxy)

. {6.6}

20

(proxy) (proxy)

,

.{6.6}


64/68

(Technical Summary)

82

TS.6.3

50

.

.

{9.4}

,

. .

. {9.4, 9.7}

20 m

.

20

. {9.5}

10

(

, ) . {9.3}

,

. {9.4, 9.5}

50

,

,

,

. {9.4}

.

{9.5}

, ,

( )

.{9.5}

. {9.4, 9.5}

,

. ,

. {5.2, 9.5}

1961~2003

. {9.5}


65/68

(Technical Summary)

83

TS.6.4

TS.6.4.1

.

. AOGCM

.

(: ) (: )

. {FAQ 8.1}

. ,

.

,

(parameterizations) , .

~1

.

.

. {8.4}

,

. {8.2}

.

.

{8.2}

. {8.6}

, Madden-Julian Oscillation,

(atmospheric blocking),

. {8.4}

. {8.3}

. {8.1~8.5}

TS.6.4.2

2~4.5, 3

. 1.5 .

{8.6, 9.6, Box 10.2}

. 1 3

. {10.5}

.

1 ,

. {8.6}

AOGCM -

. {8.6}


66/68

(Technical Summary)

84

. {8.6}

TS.6.4.3

. {10.7}

(near term)

,

.

AOGCM 1980~1999

2011~2030 3

SRES , B1, A1B, A2 0.64~0.69

. {10.3}

,

. {10.3}

.

,

,

. {10.3}

.

. 21

.

.

. {10.3}

, MOC 2100

. MOC 21

. {10.3}

.

,

.

. {10.3, FAQ 10.1}

( )

CO2

. ,

CO2 .

, CO2

.

. {7.3, 10.4}

21 MOC

. 2100

, MOC

1~7 .

MOC

. {10.7}

. {10.3, 11.1}


67/68

(Technical Summary)

85

ENSO

,

. {10.3}

. {10.3}

,

(: ENSO, NAO,

(blocking), MOC, ,

). {11.2~11.9}

. {7.3, 10.4}

TS.6.4.4

21

.

.

{10.6}

21

. {10.7}

1

. {10.7}

. {10.6}

( )

, .

(

) . {10.7}

TS.6.4.5

50

,

. {10.3, 11.2~11.9}

. ,

, ,

,

. {11.2~11.9}

,

.

,

,

.

{11.2~11.9}

. , ,

, ,

.

.


68/68

(Technical Summary)

{11.2~11.9}

,

. {11.2~11.9}

AOGCM (: ,

, )

. {10.3, 11.2~11.9}

,

.

{11.2~11.9}

kats technical report (language:korean)

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