karl albrecht's presentation to the world future society conference, orlando, 2014
TRANSCRIPT
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“Deconstructing the Future”
Karl Albrecht
World Future Society
World Future 2014July 12, 2014
Orlando
Seeing Beyond“Magic Wand” Predictions
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The “Oh-S***” Future
Whose “Future” Do You Believe?
The “Gee-Whiz” Future
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The Turning Point?
“Civilization is more
and more a race
between education
and catastrophe.”
~ H.G. Wells, 1902
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Do Futurists Drink Too Much Coffee?
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“Magic Wand” Predictions
About That Overpopulation
Problem
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Famous “Bad Calls”
“Forget it, Louis -
no Civil War picture
has ever
made a nickel.”
- Irving Thalberg,
business Adviser
to Louis B. Mayer,
who turned down
“Gone With the Wind,” 1937
GONE
with the
WIND
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Famous “Bad Calls”
“Robert Goddard’stheories about
space travel
are too far-fetched
even to be
considered.”
- Scientific American
Magazine, 1940
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Famous “Bad Calls”
“We will bury you.
And you capitalists
will sell us the shovels
to do it with.”
- Nikita Khrushchev,
Premier of USSR, 1962
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Famous “Bad Calls”
“I see no reason
why anyone
would need
a computer
in their home.”
- Ken Olsen, founder of
Digital Equipment Corp.,
1977
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“We stand on the threshold of rocket mail”
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What’s the Next “Rocket Mail”?
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Computers
to replace
futurists by
2025
The Final Prediction?
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How Do Futurists Think?
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Two Thinking “Systems”
“System 1”:Reflexive
“System 2”:Reflective
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“System 2” Thinking: What If . . .?
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“System 2” Thinking: a Strategy Exercise
• 5 coins, each touching 2 neighbors.• Players alternate taking way coins.• Each player can take either 1 coin, or 2 if they’re touching each other.• Cannot disturb the other coins.• Winner is the one who takes the last coin (or coins).• What strategy will always win the game?
1
2
34
5
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There Will Always be New Ideas
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Square Watermelons?
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Low-budget Funerals?
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Wine Sling?
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Musical Taser?
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New Fashions?
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The Digital
Outhouse?
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Underwater Hotels?
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Space Tourism?
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Electronic Tombstones?
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Customer
Competitor
Economic
Techno-
logicalSocial
Political
Legal
Geo-
physical
The Strategic Radar Model for Business
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The Structured Inquiry Method
1. Map out the “Strategic Context”
2. Discover the Drivers
3. Build the Road Map
Starts with Asking a “Big Question.”
Then ...
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1. Mind Mapping: The “Strategic Context”
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2. Affinity Diagramming: The “Drivers”
DRIVER 4
DRIVER 3
DRIVER 2
DRIVER 1
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3. Card Planning: The “Roadmap”
Time Line
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Better Questions => Better Predictions
A Useful Prediction Is …
• Anchored in a Context
• Time-bound [“… by the year 20xx”]
• Confidence-Rated [“+/- 5 years”] [“Conf. = 90%”]
• Testable [observable criteria…]
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New Thinking for a New World
“Everything should be made
as simple as possible – but
not simpler.”
~ Albert Einstein
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