Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research InstituteKandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research InstituteDepartment of Earthquake Engineering Department of Earthquake Engineering

Boğaziçi University, Istanbul Boğaziçi University, Istanbul

ISTANBUL ISTANBUL TEST SITETEST SITE

SAFER Final Meeting, GFZ, PotsdamJune 3-5 2009

SAFER Project, Test Site IstanbulSAFER Project, Test Site Istanbul

• Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response SystemIstanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System • Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning SystemIstanbul Earthquake Early Warning System • Istanbul, AtakoyIstanbul, Atakoy District SOSEWIN (Self-Organizing Seismic Early District SOSEWIN (Self-Organizing Seismic Early Warning Information Network) SystemWarning Information Network) System

• Istanbul Structural Monitoring NetworksIstanbul Structural Monitoring Networks

• Shake and Los Mapping Shake and Los Mapping

ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKE ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMEARLY WARNING SYSTEM

The Early Warning part of The Early Warning part of the I-NET 10+2 strong the I-NET 10+2 strong motion stations were motion stations were located as close as located as close as possible to the Great possible to the Great Marmara Fault zone in “on-Marmara Fault zone in “on-line” mode. line” mode.

Data Transmission is Data Transmission is provided with Spread provided with Spread Spectrum Radio Modem Spectrum Radio Modem and Satellite. and Satellite.

The continuous on-line The continuous on-line data from these stations is data from these stations is used to provide real time used to provide real time warning for emerging warning for emerging potentially disastrous potentially disastrous earthquakes. earthquakes.

DISTRIBUTION OF EARLY WARNING STATIONS and RADIO-MODEM DISTRIBUTION OF EARLY WARNING STATIONS and RADIO-MODEM TRANSMISSIONTRANSMISSION

Satellite Connection

REAL-TIME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE RELATED PARAMETERSREAL-TIME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE RELATED PARAMETERS Many researchers have investigated the relationships between the earthquake damage and the

ground motion parameters such as peak ground motion amplitudes, spectral amplitudes at selected periods.

Arias Intensity, Cumulative Absolute Velocity and Housner’s Spectrum Intensity.

Nakamura (2004) defined the so-called “Destructive Intensity, DI”, represented by the logarithm of the absolute value of the inner product of the acceleration and a velocity vectors:

DI = log (|Σ(a.v)|), MMI=(11/7)*DI + 4.27

BCAV – Window Length=1s

BCAV – W (Window Length=8s)

Correlation between CAV and computed seismic intensity

(Computed Seismic Intensities are obtained from the FAS of simulated accelerograms using Sokolov (2002))

Early Warning times from 280 simulated earthquakes

EEWEEWFAST TRAIN AND FAST TRAIN AND TUBE TUNNELTUBE TUNNEL

IGDAIGDAŞ ServiŞ Service Networkce NetworkEarthquake MonıtorıngEarthquake Monıtorıng

BOĞAZİÇİ DISTRICT DIRECTORY

ANADOLU DISTRICT DIRECTORYİSTANBUL DISTRICT DIRECTORY

ELECTRELECTRIIC POWER C POWER DDIISTRSTRIIBUTBUTIION SYSTEMON SYSTEM

Potential Uses of EW Potential Uses of EW in Istanbulin Istanbul

HEAVY INDUSTRYHEAVY INDUSTRY

ISTANBUL ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE

RAPID RAPID RESPONSE RESPONSE

SYSTEM SYSTEM STATIONSSTATIONS

KOERI IEWRRS 100 Station +

İGDAŞ (Istanbul Gas Company) 100 Station

Expansion by the end of 2009Expansion by the end of 2009

After triggered by an earthquake, each station processes the streaming three-After triggered by an earthquake, each station processes the streaming three-channel strong motion data to yield the Spectral accelerations at specific periods, channel strong motion data to yield the Spectral accelerations at specific periods, 12Hz filtered PGA and PGV and sends these parameters in the form of SMS 12Hz filtered PGA and PGV and sends these parameters in the form of SMS messages at every 20s directly to the main data center through the messages at every 20s directly to the main data center through the AVEA - AVEA - GSM GSM communication system by using several base stations, microwave system and communication system by using several base stations, microwave system and landlines.landlines.

Spectral displacements obtained from the SMS messages sent from stations are Spectral displacements obtained from the SMS messages sent from stations are interpolated to determine the spectral displacement values at the center of each interpolated to determine the spectral displacement values at the center of each geo-cell (0.01geo-cell (0.01 x 0.01 x 0.01).).

The seismic demand at the center of each geo-cell is computed using these The seismic demand at the center of each geo-cell is computed using these spectral displacements. spectral displacements.

Using the capacities of the buildings (24 types) in each geo-cell the building Using the capacities of the buildings (24 types) in each geo-cell the building damage is computed by using the spectral-displacement based fragility curves damage is computed by using the spectral-displacement based fragility curves ((Capacity SpectrumCapacity Spectrum Procedure). Procedure).

Capacity Capacity SpectrumSpectrum-type -type

Building Building Damage Damage

AssessmentAssessment

LocationLocation o of f earthquakes earthquakes recorded by the recorded by the systemsystem

Information on recorded Earthquakes

Sept. 29, 2004 Marmara Sea Earthquake (M4) ShakeMap (Cambell and Sept. 29, 2004 Marmara Sea Earthquake (M4) ShakeMap (Cambell and Bozorognia, 2008) with no consideration of instrumental data and site responseBozorognia, 2008) with no consideration of instrumental data and site response

Empirical Data Empirical Data IncorporatedIncorporated

(Bias (Bias adjustment at adjustment at surface)surface)

Empirical Empirical Data and Data and Site Site Response Response IncorporatedIncorporated

March 12 2008 March 12 2008 EarthquakeEarthquake

Shake and Loss MapShake and Loss Map

Communication of Rapid Communication of Rapid Response Message Response Message

(Damage Maps)(Damage Maps)

(Mobile phones and PDA’s)(Mobile phones and PDA’s)

Municipality

Governorate

1st Army

NUMBER OF COLLAPSED BUILDINGS PER CELL (Simulated from random data and communicated to end users every day at 10am)

WLAN

Classical Seismological Station

Central Side:A normal NodeVisualizationBackup, Monitoring

DSL

City

The development of a new seismic network for earthquake early warning (EEW), made up of low-cost sensors that will eventually be purchasable by a range of end users, giving very dense urban networks

The Seismological SOSEWIN will complement existing EEW networks.

Gateways (Internet)

Public NodeLow Cost Node

Ref: Picozzi et. al.

Istanbul, AtakoyIstanbul, Atakoy District SOSEWIN (Self-Organizing District SOSEWIN (Self-Organizing Seismic Early Warning Information Network) SystemSeismic Early Warning Information Network) System

18 18 Sensing NodesSensing Nodes

2 2 Gateways + Gateways + Sensing NodesSensing Nodes

Testing SOSEWIN: Ataköy district, Istanbul

Ref: Picozzi et. al.

Testing SOSEWIN: Fatih-Mehmet suspension bridge, IstanbulExperimental array of 24 nodes: 10 along each side of bridge, 2 on either side of each tower.

Node installed in one tower

Node installed along the sideRef: Picozzi et. al.

S678C

S6770

S6128 S61BC S675C S6754 S6174 S6190

S6124S61A0S6778S6198

S677C

S6168

S61A4

S61D4

S676C

S61C0

S6750S6794

S6798

S61B4S61A8S67A0

about 1000 m

24 SOSEWIN nodes recorded bridge vibrations for about 2 hours

Time series Spectra

Ref: Picozzi et. al.

BOBOĞAZİÇİ BRIDGEĞAZİÇİ BRIDGE

Structural Health MonitoringStructural Health Monitoring

FATIH BRIDGEFATIH BRIDGE

FATIH BRIDGEFATIH BRIDGE

İŞ-KULE ENRON-TRAKYA ELEKTRIK

Hagia Sophia

Structural Structural Health Health MonitoringMonitoring•Hagia SophiaHagia Sophia

•SuleymaniyeSuleymaniye

•FatihFatih

•MihrimahMihrimah

•Tube TunnelTube Tunnel

Implementation of online Shake Mapping

• The installation and customization of the USGS Shakemap code was completed in 2006

• Test runs in scenario mode were made for some of the past earthquakes in Turkey,

• Alternatively, an earthquake shaking and loss estimation routine (ELER) has been developed in connection with the EU FP6 NERIES project.

NERIES JRA3 ELER SOFTWARE

In Hazard Assessment Module Modified USGS Shake-map algorithm

In Loss Assessment Module For Building Damage Estimation: Intensity Based Vulnerability (Level 1)

Macro-seismic method implicitly defined by EMS-98 scale (Giovinazzi S., 2005)

Spectral Displacement- Based Vulnerability (Level 2) Capacity Spectrum Method (CSM) Modified Acceleration – Displacement Response Spectrum Method (MADRS) Reduction Factor Method Coefficient Method

For Casualty Estimation: Samardjieva & Badal (2002) – Level 0 Intensity based fatality rates – Level 0 KOERI (with ATC-13) – Level 1 HAZUS99 – Level 2 HAZUS-MH – Level 2

Methodologies used in ELER Software

Earthquake Hazard Module Calculation

Methodology

Utilized Attenuation Relations

Ground Motion Estimation• Akkar & Bommer 2007 • Boore & Atkinson 2007 • Boore et al. 1997 • Campbell & Bozorgnia 2007

Instrumental Intensity Estimation• Wald et al. 1999• Sokolov 2002

Intensity distribution (ShakeMap) - 1999 Kocaeli earthquake

Observed Intensity Distribution FAS (Sokolov) Method

PGA/PGV-Intensity CorrelationsWald et al. (1999)

Regional Intensity Attenuation Relationship

Google Earth KML Output of Earthquake Hazard Module

Intensity as Polygons Intensity as LinesKML outputs

• Level 1 (Intensity based building damage and casualty assessment)

Grid-based analysis Estimations in regional and/or country scale Basic input data available for Europe, for crude estimations

of building damage User defined building inventories are accommodated Intensity based structural vulnerabilities from Lagomarsiono

and Giovinazzi (2006) (EMS-98 Vulnerability Classes, Vulnerability Indices (V, Q), Vulnerability Curves, Damage Probability Matrices)

Level 1 - Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology

Level 1 - Methodology based on Vulnerability Indices

3.2

1.1325.6tanh15.2 I

d

VI

Typology Description Min Mean Max

M1 Stone Masonry Bearing Walls made of...M1.1 Rubble stone, fieldstone 0.62 0.873 1.02M1.2 Simple stone 0.46 0.74 1.02M1.3 Massive stone 0.3 0.616 0.86

M2 Adobe 0.62 0.84 1.02M3 Unreinforced masonry Bearing walls with...

M3.1 Masonry with Wooden slabs 0.46 0.74 1.02M3.2 Masonry vaults 0.46 0.776 1.02M3.3 Composite steel and masonry slabs 0.46 0.704 1.02M3.4 Reinforced concrete slabs 0.3 0.616 0.86

M4 Reinforced or confined masonry walls 0.14 0.451 0.7M5 Overall strengthened 0.3 0.694 1.02RC1 Concrete Moment Frames - 0.02 0.442 1.02RC2 Concrete shear walls - 0.02 0.386 0.86

RC3Concrete frames with unreinforced masonry infill walls

RC3.1 Regularly infilled walls - 0.02 0.402 0.98RC3.2 Irregularly infilled walls 0.06 0.522 1.02

RC4 RC Dual systems (RC frame and wall) - 0.02 0.386 0.86RC5 Precast Concrete Tilt- Up Walls 0.14 0.384 0.7RC6 Precast C. Frames, C. shear walls 0.3 0.544 0.86S1 Steel Moment Frames - 0.02 0.363 0.86S2 Steel braced Frames - 0.02 0.287 0.7S3 Steel frame+unreinf. mas. infill walls 0.14 0.484 0.86S4 Steel frame+cast- in- place shear walls - 0.02 0.224 0.54S5 Steel and RC composite system - 0.02 0.402 1.02W Wood structures 0.14 0.447 0.86

Vulnerability Index

RISK-UE Building Typology MatrixRISK-UE Building Typology Matrix

Ref: Ref: Giovinazzi Giovinazzi S.,S.,(2005)(2005)

European building typology

Level 1 - Methodology based on EMS98 Vulnerability Classes

D3: Substantial to heavy damage

Level 1 – Casualty Estimation

Koeri,2002

Coburn&Spence

Case Study for 1999 M6 Athens EarthquakeLevel 0 and Level 1

1999 Athens EarthquakeEstimated Intensity Distribution

The 7 September 1999 M6 Athens earthquake

In total 143 people were killed, 1600 people were injured and at least 53,000 buildings were reported to be damaged by this earthquake.

Case Study for 1999 M6 Athens EarthquakeLevel 1 Building Damage and Casualty Estimation

Estimated Number of Damaged Buildings (3080 buildings in Damage States D3 + D4 + D5)

Case Study for 1999 M6 Athens EarthquakeLevel 1 Building Damage and Casualty Estimation

Estimated Number of Deaths (Total: 236 people)

Stations Data From: http://earthquake.rm.ingv.it/shakemap/shake/2206496920/intensity.htmlFault Data From: http://www.emsc-csem.org/index.php?page=current =⊂ recent&evt=20090406_ITALY )

Bias Adjustment at Surface Instead of B/C Boundary

Level 2 - Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology

Grid- (geo-cell) based urban building inventory and population data.

The spectral capacity-based vulnerability assessment methodology is utilized for the building damage estimation.

The casualty estimation is based on the number of buildings in each different damage state.

Typology Description Min Mean Max

M1 Stone Masonry Bearing Walls made of...M1.1 Rubble stone, fieldstone 0.62 0.873 1.02M1.2 Simple stone 0.46 0.74 1.02M1.3 Massive stone 0.3 0.616 0.86

M2 Adobe 0.62 0.84 1.02M3 Unreinforced masonry Bearing walls with...

M3.1 Masonry with Wooden slabs 0.46 0.74 1.02M3.2 Masonry vaults 0.46 0.776 1.02M3.3 Composite steel and masonry slabs 0.46 0.704 1.02M3.4 Reinforced concrete slabs 0.3 0.616 0.86

M4 Reinforced or confined masonry walls 0.14 0.451 0.7M5 Overall strengthened 0.3 0.694 1.02RC1 Concrete Moment Frames - 0.02 0.442 1.02RC2 Concrete shear walls - 0.02 0.386 0.86

RC3Concrete frames with unreinforced masonry infill walls

RC3.1 Regularly infilled walls - 0.02 0.402 0.98RC3.2 Irregularly infilled walls 0.06 0.522 1.02

RC4 RC Dual systems (RC frame and wall) - 0.02 0.386 0.86RC5 Precast Concrete Tilt- Up Walls 0.14 0.384 0.7RC6 Precast C. Frames, C. shear walls 0.3 0.544 0.86S1 Steel Moment Frames - 0.02 0.363 0.86S2 Steel braced Frames - 0.02 0.287 0.7S3 Steel frame+unreinf. mas. infill walls 0.14 0.484 0.86S4 Steel frame+cast- in- place shear walls - 0.02 0.224 0.54S5 Steel and RC composite system - 0.02 0.402 1.02W Wood structures 0.14 0.447 0.86

Vulnerability Index

RISK-UEBuilding Typology Matrix

Model Building Types of HAZUS-1999

EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION FOR ISTANBUL

The "Credible Worst Case" Scenario event:

An Mw=7.5 (similar to 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake in magnitude and in total rupture length) which is assumed to take place on the fault segments 5, 6, 7 and 8.

DISTRIBUTION OF DAMAGED BUILDINGS

DISTRIBUTION OF CASUALITIES

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