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    Kanadian imperialistsThis article first appeared on Anti-Imperialism.com, a web project run by theRevolutionary Anti-Imperialist Movement. It discusses the reports from last weekin the National Post (an arch-settlerist bourgeois rag in occupied kanada)regarding the fear of an onkwehn:we revolt in kanada.

    Onkwehn:we Rising though also encourages comrads to look at this with a critical

    eye and an understanding of the alignment of forces in the current kanadiancontext. The colonialist kanadian state and pro-state White nationalist elementsin the media and academia, such as the National Post, have been warning andfear mongering about an impending onkwehn:we uprising for some years now. Whileof course this is not unprecedented, even within recent kanadian history whichhas seen the uprisings and armed self-defence actions at Kanehsat:ke,Kahnaw:ke, Tspeten and others, we do not believe that such an insurrection isin imminent.

    The onkwehn:we movement in occupied northern Anwarakowa Kawennote (aka kanada)is too spread out, geographically and ideologically (with anarchists and culturalnationalists dominating) at this time, with the closest thing resembling somekind of national leadership being the utterly reformist, cultural nationalist,petty bourgeois as fuck IdleNoMore official leadership. While we wouldnt denythe possibility of heroic though isolated Oka type events, and in fact have we

    believe that kanada is due for another one because of struggles around issueslike the tar sands, we overall believe that such warnings from the state andpro-state White settler media elements like the NP are put out more to give coverto preemptive police and military intervention against the onkwehn:we movementand our communities by the colonial state than they are the result of genuinefear of an onkwehn:we uprising.

    However, the fact that the state and settler media elements are able to so easilydrum up settler fear of an onkwehn:we uprising are evidence of just how utterlyparanoid in fact much the the kanadian settler population is about such ahypothetical insurrection. This is because they know full well that the colonialsituation in kanada is building sentiment towards such an event (just notimminently). They also know full well, as the article from the post demonstrates,that despite our smaller numbers vis--vis the settler nation, that a generalonkwehn:we insurrection, much less an organized peoples war, would rapidly

    paralyze the kanadian economy. It is the demonstration of this fear, thatsettlers (White people) a terrified that the colonized might, just might, comeback and take back what was stolen from them at the point of a gun barrel insteadof dancing, singing and drumming for the colonizer and colonizer to just getalong that makes these kinds of reports valuable.

    From Anti-Imperialism.com: Anti-Imperialism.com and its associates have longasserted the movement for national liberation of oppressed nations withinsettler-imperialist countries is the regional forefront of the globalrevolutionary movement. First Worldist vacillation between ignoring struggles fornational liberation or sweeping them under the rug of a non-existentmulti-national [i.e., White-centered] grand movement for socialism [i.e.,social-imperialism] the the norm of First World Marxist.

    This article by John Ivison of the National Post, which fearfully discusses the

    possibility of an Indigenous insurrection in Canada, indicates the efficacy ofour analysis. We are not surprised by this: our analysis is drawn from amaterialist reading of history.

    Interestingly, this bourgeois report takes some of the same materialistconsiderations into account in discussing the feasibility an Indigenousnational liberation revolt. This article also implies the role in economicconcessions in buying off portions of insurgent populations.

    Though imperialists fear the development of national liberation insurrections,they more-so fear the development of a world revolutionary movement which unitesthe Third World-centered proletariat with the struggles of oppressed nations andprogressive sectors within the imperialist First World.

    Mankind is at a crossroads, Woody Allen once quipped: One path leads to despair

    and utter hopelessness. The other to total extinction. Let us pray we have thewisdom to choose correctly.

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    Kanadian imperialists

    Canadas relations with its aboriginal people are also at a crossroads but,fortunately, one of the potential paths forward promises a more auspiciousoutcome than Mr. Allens doomsday scenario.

    The Macdonald-Laurier Institute think-tank laid out the options in two important

    essays released Wednesday. One paper, by Ken Coates and Brian Lee Crowley,outlines an optimistic vision where aboriginal and non-aboriginal Canadians findways to collaborate on natural resource development, to the benefit of all.

    A more pessimistic report, by Douglas Bland, suggests that Canada has all thenecessary feasibility conditions for a violent native uprising social faultlines; a large warrior cohort; an economy vulnerable to sabotage; a reluctanceon the part of governments and security forces to confront aboriginal protests;and a sparsely populated country reliant on poorly defended key infrastructurelike rail and electricity lines.

    Mr. Coates and Mr. Lee Crowley suggested that aboriginal people are in a sweetspot when it comes to natural resource development the result of treatyagreements, court settlements and Supreme Court decisions.

    Mr. Coates said many First Nations have made it clear they want to work withinthe structure of Canada by taking their grievances to court, a process thatculminated with a landmark Supreme Court decision in 2004 that said companies whowant to develop resources on traditional native land have a duty to consult andaccommodate. This gives aboriginal people substantial influence over resourcedecisions, if not a legal veto, and has led to the emergence of well-fundedcommunity development corporations, impact-benefit agreements, indigenouscollaboration and resource revenue sharing. (British Columbia has led the waywith a new mineral tax.)

    The authors point out these kinds of deals are not a panacea the troubledAttawapiskat reserve has a royalty-sharing agreement with De Beers over itsVictor diamond mine, yet has recently seen a state of emergency declared again.

    But their conclusion is that even such movements as Idle No More overwhelmingly

    peaceful and culturally rich suggest accommodation is possible, if nativeCanadians receive a fair share of the countrys wealth.

    Thats the good news. Theres precious little sunshine in Douglas Blands paper,Co-operation or Conflict?

    He took the accepted feasibility hypothesis, developed by researchers at OxfordUniversity, as the basis for predicting civil unrest and applied it to Canada.The findings are scary enough to make you stock up on canned food and startdigging your bunker.

    The Oxford research suggests that feasibility, rather than root causes, is thefoundation for challenging civil authority. In Canada, it seems, unrest is veryfeasibile. Social fractionalization along native and non-native fault lines isobvious. There is a growing warrior cohort by 2017, 42% of First Nations

    population on the Prairies will be under 30 many disadvantaged, poorlyeducated, unemployed and angry. The economy is dependent on moving resources overlong, hard-to-defend transportation routes. Finally, the security forces arelimited by capacity and the will of their leaders to confront aboriginalprotesters who break the law.

    While the Oxford hypothesis suggests feasibility is the determinant and predictorof insurgency, it does not dismiss that grievances do provide motive. And Mr.Blands paper reels off some particularly damning statistics: a homicide rate of8.8/100,000 compared with 1.3/100,000 in the non-aboriginal population; astratospheric incarceration rate that means 80% of prisoners in Alberta areaboriginal (out of 11% of the population); a high school graduation rate of 24%of 15 to 24-year-olds, compared with 84% in the non-native population; a 40%youth unemployment rate and on and on.

    Mr. Bland argues that, in some respects, an uprising has and is occurring, as aquick head count of the Warrior Cohort inside our penal colonies will

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    Kanadian imperialistsdemonstrate.

    In the event of an insurgency, the Canadian economy could be shut down in weeks.The 2012 CP Rail strike cost an estimated $540-million a week, as it hitindustries including coal, grain, potash, nickel, lumber and autos. Some FirstNations leaders like Terry Nelson in Manitoba have already concluded that a

    covert operation involving burning cars on every railway line would be impossibleto stop.

    Mr. Bland cites Manitoba, with its vulnerable transportation hub, as a provincewith a large native population and a relatively small police presence that wouldbe unable to guarantee security in the event of even a modest protest. Thereality is that the security of Manitoba now and in the future is whatever theFirst Nations allow it to be, he quotes one security specialist as saying.[And] as the security guarantee drifts lower, the feasibility of confrontationclimbs higher.

    It makes for grim reading, but Mr. Bland suggests there are ways to diminish thefeasibility factor and create conditions for the happier outcome put forward byMessrs. Coates and Lee Crowley.

    He suggested resource revenue-sharing; a Marshall Plan style reconstructionpackage that acknowledges some sort of native sovereignty; programs aimed atdealing with aboriginal incarceration; comprehensive resettlement of remotecommunities; and a well-funded First Nations leadership institution as ways toaddress some of the frustrations felt by natives on reserves.

    But the logic of the feasibility hypothesis means the most effective way toprevent an insurrection is to make one less feasible. Hence, he concludes Ottawamust reinforce the security guarantee in and near First Nations by safeguardingcritical transportation infrastructure, beefing up policing on reserves andcracking down on illegal drugs.

    In his conclusion, Mr. Lee Crowley said that, on balance, there are strongreasons for optimism. The feeling that this is an intractable problem whereprogress can never be made is not true, he said.

    But, having read both papers, I tend to side with Mr. Allens (and perhaps Mr.Blands) more gloomy world view.

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