k.a. dolecheck w.j. silvia j.m. bewley university of kentucky
TRANSCRIPT
Estrus Detection Technologies and Their Economic Implications
K.A. Dolecheck
W.J. Silvia
J.M. Bewley
University of Kentucky
Estrus Detection Methods
NAHMS 2007
Other
Visual observation
Bulls
Tail chalk/paint
Pressure devices
HeatWatch
Pedometers
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
7.3
93
40.3
34.7
14.4
5.7
1.4
Percent
Me
tho
d
Visual Observation Problems
Cow problems
Poor footing
Inadequate space
High production
People problems
Time allocation
Accuracy
Technology Opportunities
Estrus associated changes
Secondary signs of estrus
Endocrine signs
Technology Opportunities
Estrus associated changes
Standing behavior
Technology Opportunities
Estrus associated changes
Standing behavior
Secondary signs of estrus
Activity
System Company
AfiTag/Pedometer Plus AfiMilk, Ltd.
CowScout™ GEA Farm Technologies, Inc.
HeatPhone® Medria
Heatseeker™II BouMatic™
IceQube ICE Robotics™
Lactivator Nedap
MooMonitor Dairymaster
Ai24 Semex®
HR-Tag™ SCR™
Select Detect™ Select Sires, Inc.
SensOor AGIS Automation
Track a Cow™ Animart™
Activity
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
110
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
Time in Hours
Ac
tiv
ity
Estrus
Technology Opportunities
Estrus associated changes
Standing behavior
Secondary signs of estrus
Activity
Rumination
Rumination
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
110
120
0102030405060708090
100
Time in Hours
Ru
min
ati
on
ACTIVITY
RUMINATION Estrus
Technology Opportunities
Estrus associated changes
Standing behavior
Secondary signs of estrus
Activity
Rumination
Body temperature Rectal Vaginal Reticular Tympanic
Vaginal TemperatureTe
mpe
ratu
re
Time
Technology Opportunities
Estrus associated changes
Standing behavior
Secondary signs of estrus
Activity
Rumination
Body temperature
Endocrine signs
Progesterone levels
OVULATION
-4 -3 -2 -1 0
ONSET
31 +/- 8h
24 +/- 6h
LH
ESTRUS
93 +/- 11h
Progesterone
Technology Opportunities
Estrus associated changes
Standing behavior
Secondary signs of estrus
Activity
Rumination
Body temperature
Endocrine signs
Progesterone levels
Other opportunities
Heart rate
Feed intake
Lying vs. standing time
Milk yield
Vaginal conductivity
Herd Dependent
Herd is the biggest factor determining if a system will work
Starting point
Management
Investment Analysis of Automated Estrus Detection Technologies
K.A. Dolecheck, G. Heersche Jr., and J.M. Bewley
University of Kentucky
Objective
Develop a decision-making tool
User-friendly
Farm-specific
Multiple technologies
Dashboard tools provide interactive interfaces for analysis and decision support
Model Outputs
Reproductive performance
Days open (French and Nebel, 2003)
Investment analysis
Years to break even
Net present value
CalculationsNet Present Value
Present value of cash inflows minus present value of cash outflows
Accounts for timing of revenues and cash flows
Good investment: Net present value ≥ 0
System net present value determined by considering the value associated with a change in days open
CalculationsOther Considerations
Accounts for costs associated with:
Pre-investment estrus
detection method
Semen usage
Pregnancy diagnosis
10 year investment period
Limitations
Investment analysis does not consider:
Additional benefits of technologies
Changes in heifer inventory
Effect on quality of producer’s life
Tabs organize information
Description and instructions for user
www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologiesDashboard available at: www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies
Hover buttons explain inputs and results
Inputs adjustable in multiple ways
www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologiesDashboard available at: www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies
Compare up to 3 different technologies
www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologiesDashboard available at: www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies
Technology names appear here
Net present value shown visibly as either good (green) or bad (red)
Black box and “Best Option” indicate the highest net present value
www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologiesDashboard available at: www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies
Example Analysis
Average United States Holstein dairy herd
DairyMetrics (Dairy Records Management Systems, Raleigh, NC, USA)
Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI; Columbia, MO, USA)
Published literature
Compare high vs. low
Initial investment cost
Cow unit cost
Estrus detection rate
Farm Specific InputsHerd Assumptions
Input Value Source
Herd size 313 DairyMetrics, July 2013
Milk price $0.43/kg FAPRI, 2013
Milk yield 33.7 kg/cow/d DairyMetrics, July 2013
Feed cost $0.20/kg DM FAPRI, 2013
Farm Specific InputsCulling & Replacement Assumptions
Input Value Source
Culling rate 38.1% DairyMetrics, July 2013
Days in milk do not breed
300 d Model assumption
Cull milk yield 15.88 kg/d Model assumption
Replacement cost $1785 Liang, 2013
Cull cow value $1.67/kg FAPRI, 2013
Farm Specific InputsReproduction Assumptions
Input Value Source
Voluntary waiting period 58.4 d DairyMetrics, July 2013
Current estrus detection rate 49.4% DairyMetrics, July 2013
Current 1st service conception rate
37.8% DairyMetrics, July 2013
Farm Specific InputsReproduction Assumptions
Input Value Source
Cost of 1st service semen $15 Model assumption
Cost of ≥ 2nd service semen $10 Model assumption
Cost of pregnancy detection $3/head Galvao et al., 2013
Pre-investment estrus detection method
Visual Model assumption
Technology Inputs
Initial investment
$5,000 (Low)
$10,000 (High)
Unit price
$50 (50)
$100 (100)
Estrus detection rate
70% (70)
90% (90)
System InputsInitial Costs
System Start-Up Cost
Unit Cost
Total Initial Investment
Low-50 $5,000 $50 $13,465
Low-100 $5,000 $100 $21,930
High-50 $10,000 $50 $18,465
High-100 $10,000 $100 $26,930
Low: $5,000 initial investmentHigh: $10,000 initial investment50: $50 unit price100: $100 unit price
Other Assumptions
Discount rate = 8.0% (Bewley et al., 2010)
Every animal requires a unit
Replace 5% of units each year
Analysis Outcome
Analysis ResultsDays Open
49%
70%
90%
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
150
125
109
Days Open
Es
tru
s D
ete
cti
on
Ra
te
Analysis ResultsYears to Break Even
High-100-70
High-50-70
Low-100-70
Low-50-70
High-100-90
High-50-90
Low-100-90
Low-50-90
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
2.5
2.4
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.4
1.4
Years to Break Even
Te
ch
no
log
y E
xa
mp
leLow: $5,000 initial investmentHigh: $10,000 initial investment50: $50 unit price100: $100 unit price70: 70% estrus detection rate90: 90% estrus detection rate
Investment-Unit Price-EDR
Analysis ResultsNet Present Value
High-100-70
Low-100-70
High-50-70
Low-50-70
High-100-90
Low-100-90
High-50-90
Low-50-90
$0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000
$58,582
$63,582
$64,188
$69,188
$94,300
$99,300
$99,906
$104,906
Net Present Value
Te
ch
no
log
y E
xa
mp
leLow: $5,000 initial investmentHigh: $10,000 initial investment50: $50 unit price100: $100 unit price70: 70% estrus detection rate90: 90% estrus detection rate
Investment-Unit Price-EDR
Additional AnalysisBreak Even Estrus Detection Rate
Technology estrus detection rates vary under different management situations
Goal: Determine lowest estrus detection rate at which investment in each system is still profitable
Change each system’s estrus detection rate until net present value is equal to $0
Additional AnalysisBreak Even Estrus Detection Rate
Low-50
High-50
Low-100
High-100
51% 52% 53% 54% 55%
52.8%
53.5%
53.6%
54.4%
Estrus Detection Rate
Te
ch
no
log
y E
xa
mp
le
Low: $5,000 initial investmentHigh: $10,000 initial investment50: $50 unit price100: $100 unit price
Investment-Unit Price
Additional AnalysisGood Reproductive Management Situation
Investment profitability is dependent on pre-investment reproductive management
Goal: Determine how investment profitability changes with improved beginning estrus detection
95th percentile = 76%(DairyMetrics)
Additional AnalysisGood Reproductive Management Situation
Low-50-90
High-50-90
Low-100-90
High-100-90
Low-50-70
High-50-70
Low-100-70
High-100-70
-$60,000 -$40,000 -$20,000 $0
-$1,622
-$6,622
-$7,228
-$12,228
-$37,340
-$42,340
-$42,946
-$47,946
Net Present Value (Thousands)
Techn
olo
gy E
xamp
le
Low: $5,000 initial investmentHigh: $10,000 initial investment50: $50 unit price100: $100 unit price70: 70% estrus detection rate90: 90% estrus detection rate
Investment-Unit Price-EDR
Conclusions
Change in days open is affected by estrus detection rate
Years to break even is affected by:
1) Estrus detection rate
2) Initial investment cost
3) Cow unit cost
Net present value is affected by:
1) Estrus detection rate
2) Cow unit cost
3) Initial investment cost
Conclusions
Starting point determines investment profitability
Accurate information is essential for accurate results
Producer
Technology manufacturers
Dairy producers considering purchasing an automated estrus detection technology system can use this model as a decision support tool
Questions?
Karmella Dolecheck411 W.P. Garrigus BuildingLexington, KY [email protected]
Dashboard available at:www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies
Jeffrey Bewley407 WP Garrigus BuildingLexington, KY [email protected]