k1.intro to econometrics.s2ktti.2015
DESCRIPTION
Pengenalan terhadap ekonometrikaTRANSCRIPT
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EconometricsEconometrics
Nachrowi Djalal Nachrowi
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Course CoverageCourse Coverage
Introducing a framework of quantitative analysis based on econometric methodology to analyze causality relationships among variables that are related and to analyze movements of time series data.
Application to labor economics and population data analysis.
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Introduction to Introduction to Concept and Econometric Concept and Econometric
Methodology Methodology
Nachrowi Djalal NachrowiNachrowi Djalal Nachrowi
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EconometricsEconometrics
What kind of a creature?
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Literal MeaningLiteral Meaning
Economics measurements
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General MeaningGeneral Meaning
A science that studies phenomena of economics, in general, quantitatively
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Multidisciplinary approached is Multidisciplinary approached is neededneededEconomics TheoryMathematical EconomyStatistical EconomyMathematical StatisticsComputer Software
??? Difficult ???
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Why do we need EconometricsWhy do we need Econometrics
Sometime, Economics Theory is not informative
consumption vs income
Often, Economic Theory is not conclusive
Economic growth of a country vs World Price Oil
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Two analytical approachesTwo analytical approaches
Causality/Factor Analysis versus Trend Analysis
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ECONOMETRICS ECONOMETRICS METHODOLOGYMETHODOLOGY1. Developing a hypothesis2. Offer a model to test the hypothesis3. Estimate parameter model4. Model verification5. Make some prediction6. Use the model for policy analysis
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CasesCases
Relationship between: consumption and income Child achievement at school and family income World demand of oil and its price
Factors that influence cocoa production in Indonesia
Export volume movement model
etc.
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Small case:Small case:
What is the impact of income What is the impact of income increase to consumption increase to consumption
If income is increased by 15% how If income is increased by 15% how many % will consumption increasemany % will consumption increase
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Consumption vs. incomeConsumption vs. income
Hypothesis
“On average, if an income increases, then the consumption will increase also. But, the increment of consumption is less than the increment of income”
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Model OfferedModel Offered
Consumption = a + b Income
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Model EstimationModel Estimation
Get dataUse any technique of estimation
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VerificationVerification
(1 ) b < 1(2 ) b > 0
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PredictionPrediction
Consumption = 100.000 +0.65 Income
If salary increases by 25% what is the percentage increase of consumption?
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Policy ImplicationPolicy Implication
If PNS salaries increased by 10%, what is the impact to inflation (impact of consumption increase)?
How to keep the inflation low?
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More TerminologiesMore TerminologiesRegression Analysis: the study of the
dependence of one variable on one or more other explanatory variables to estimate population average of dependence variable given the fixed explanatory variables.
Deterministic vs. Stochastic RelationshipsRegression vs. Correlation