justice reinvestment: convening of counties michael schmidt, executive director oregon criminal...
DESCRIPTION
Why the increase in the October forecast? From the Office of Economic Analysis and October 2015 Forecast Summary: 1.Diminishing impacts from HB 3194 sentencing changes 2.Changes in release profile Slightly longer average estimated length of stay Fewer intakes with an estimated short length of stay (0 to 12 months)TRANSCRIPT
Justice Reinvestment: Convening of CountiesMichael Schmidt, Executive DirectorOregon Criminal Justice CommissionNovember 10, 2015
1/1/2013
3/1/2013
5/1/2013
7/1/2013
9/1/2013
11/1/2013
1/1/2014
3/1/2014
5/1/2014
7/1/2014
9/1/2014
11/1/2014
1/1/2015
3/1/2015
5/1/2015
7/1/2015
9/1/2015
11/1/2015
1/1/2016
3/1/2016
5/1/2016
7/1/2016
9/1/2016
11/1/2016
1/1/2017
3/1/2017
5/1/2017
7/1/2017
14000
14100
14200
14300
14400
14500
14600
14700
14800
14900
15000
15100
15200
15300
15400
Prison Population and Forecasts
Deer Ridge and OSP Minimum Open Junction City Opens April 2013 Forecast (No 3194 Impacts)Actual Prison Population April 2015 Forecast (full 3194 impacts) October 2015 Forecast (full 3194 impacts)
Why the increase in the October forecast?
From the Office of Economic Analysis and October 2015 Forecast Summary:1. Diminishing impacts from HB 3194
sentencing changes2. Changes in release profile
• Slightly longer average estimated length of stay
• Fewer intakes with an estimated short length of stay (0 to 12 months)
7/1/2
013
1/1/2
014
7/1/2
014
1/1/2
015
7/1/2
015
1/1/2
016
7/1/2
016
1/1/2
017
7/1/2
017
1/1/2
018
7/1/2
018
1/1/2
019
7/1/2
019
1/1/2
020
7/1/2
020
1/1/2
021
7/1/2
021
1/1/2
022
7/1/2
022
1/1/2
023
-1,000
-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
HB 3194 Total Estimated Bed Savings
Diminishing impacts from sentencing changes:
7/1/2013 3/1/2014 11/1/2014 7/1/2015 3/1/2016 11/1/2016 7/1/2017 3/1/2018 11/1/2018 7/1/2019 3/1/2020 11/1/2020 7/1/2021 3/1/2022 11/1/2022
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
HB 3194 Estimated Bed Savings
Robb 3 DWS ID Theft Drug M57 MJ STTL
STTL
Drug M57
Robb 3
DWS
ID Theft
MJ
Diminishing impacts from sentencing changes:
Changes in Release Profile:• The average estimated length of stay for all prison intakes has
slightly increased
Aug 2013-Oct 2013
Nov 2013-Jan 2014
Feb 2014-Apr 2014
May 2014-July 2014
Aug 2014-Oct 2014
Nov 2014-Jan 2015
Feb 2015-Apr 2015
May 2015-July 2015
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
37.1
40.338.3
40.742.4
39.9 40.0
44.1
Prison Intakes Average LOS
Changes in Release Profile:• The number of intakes with an estimated length of stay of less
than 12 months has gradually declined
Aug 2013-Oct 2013
Nov 2013-Jan 2014
Feb 2014-Apr 2014
May 2014-July 2014
Aug 2014-Oct 2014
Nov 2014-Jan 2015
Feb 2015-Apr 2015
May 2015-July 2015
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
346 323 304 323 304232 239 201
918856 880
925 933934
10271016
Prison Intakes
0 to 12 month LOS More than 12 month LOS
Statewide Prison Usage All OffensesOctober 2012 - September 2015
Total Prison Intakes
Person Sex M57Prop/Drug/Driving Other0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Total Prison Intakes
Oct 2012-Sept 2013 Oct 2013-Sept 2014 Oct 2014-Sept 2015
Total Prison Months
Person Sex M57Prop/Drug/Driving Other0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
Total Prison Months
Oct 2012-Sept 2013 Oct 2013-Sept 2014 Oct 2014-Sept 2015
Statewide Prison Usage:M57 Property and Drug OffensesOctober 2012 - September 2015
Prison Intakes
First Sentences Probation Revocations First Sentences Probation RevocationsM57 Property Drug
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1389
376
590
166
1299
392
498
185
1249
481 493
163
Property and Drug Prison Intakes
Oct 2012-Sept 2013 Oct 2013-Sept 2014 Oct 2014-Sept 2015
Average LOS
First Sentences Probation Revocations First Sentences Probation RevocationsM57 Property Drug
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
25.0
17.2
21.2
17.8
25.5
18.9
24.2
16.8
25.1
19.8
26.0
17.1
Property and Drug Prison Intakes Average LOS
Oct 2012-Sept 2013 Oct 2013-Sept 2014 Oct 2014-Sept 2015
Total Prison Months
First Sentences Probation Revocations First Sentences Probation RevocationsM57 Property Drug
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
34661
6454
12491
2956
33083
7413
12040
3113
31391
9510
12820
2787
Property and Drug Total Prison Months
Oct 2012-Sept 2013 Oct 2013-Sept 2014 Oct 2014-Sept 2015
BAKER
BENTON
CLACKAMAS
CLATSOP
COLUMBIA
COOS
CROOK
CURRY
DESCHUTES
DOUGLAS
GILLIAM
GRANT
HARNEY
HOOD RIVER
JACKSON
JEFFERSON
JOSEPHIN
E
KLAMATH
LAKE
LANE
LINCOLN LIN
N
MALHEUR
MARION
MORROW
MULTNOMAH
POLK
SHERMAN
TILLAMOOK
UMATILLA
UNION
WALLOW
A
WASCO
WASHINGTON
WHEELER
YAMHILL0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
JRI Prison Utilization by County Oct 2014 - Sept 2015
Baseline Oct 2014 - Sept 2015
MULTNOMAHLANE
JOSEPHINEMALHEUR
CLATSOPCROOKGRANTUNION
SHERMANWALLOWAKLAMATH
GILLIAMWHEELER
WASHINGTONBAKER
DESCHUTESHARNEY
LAKEHOOD RIVER
TILLAMOOKMORROW
WASCOYAMHILLMARIONBENTON
CURRYLINN
CLACKAMASJEFFERSON
POLKCOLUMBIA
LINCOLNJACKSON
UMATILLACOOS
DOUGLAS
-2400 -2200 -2000 -1800 -1600 -1400 -1200 -1000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600
Difference from Baseline
Prison Forecasts By Gender
1/1/2
013
3/1/2
013
5/1/2
013
7/1/2
013
9/1/2
013
11/1/2
013
1/1/2
014
3/1/2
014
5/1/2
014
7/1/2
014
9/1/2
014
11/1/2014
1/1/2
015
3/1/2
015
5/1/2
015
7/1/2
015
9/1/2
015
11/1/2
015
1/1/2
016
3/1/2
016
5/1/2
016
7/1/2
016
9/1/2
016
11/1/2
016
1/1/2
017
3/1/2
017
5/1/2
017
7/1/2
0171150
1175
1200
1225
1250
1275
1300
1325
1350
1375
Female Prison Population and Forecasts
OSP Minimum Opens April 2013 (no 3194 impacts) Actual prison populationApril 2015 Forecast (full 3194 impacts) October 2015 Forecast
1/1/2
013
5/1/2
013
9/1/2
013
1/1/2
014
5/1/2
014
9/1/2
014
1/1/2
015
5/1/2
015
9/1/2
015
1/1/2
016
5/1/2
016
9/1/2
016
1/1/2
017
5/1/2
017
9/1/2
017
1/1/2
018
5/1/2
018
9/1/2
018
1/1/2
019
5/1/2
019
9/1/2
019
1/1/2
020
5/1/2
020
9/1/2
020
1/1/2
021
5/1/2
021
9/1/2
021
1/1/2
022
5/1/2
022
9/1/2
022
1/1/2
023
5/1/2
023
9/1/2
023
1/1/2
024
5/1/2
024
9/1/2
024
1/1/2
025
5/1/2
025
9/1/2
0251190
1210
1230
1250
1270
1290
1310
1330
1350
1370
1390
1410
1430
Female Prison Population and Forecasts to Sept 2025
OSP Minimum Opens April 2013 (no 3194 impacts) Actual prison populationApril 2015 Forecast (full 3194 impacts) October 2015 Forecast
1/1/2
013
3/1/2
013
5/1/2
013
7/1/2
013
9/1/2
013
11/1/2
013
1/1/2
014
3/1/2
014
5/1/2
014
7/1/2
014
9/1/2
014
11/1/2
014
1/1/2
015
3/1/2
015
5/1/2
015
7/1/2
015
9/1/2
015
11/1/2015
1/1/2
016
3/1/2
016
5/1/2
016
7/1/2
016
9/1/2
016
11/1/2
016
1/1/2
017
3/1/2
017
5/1/2
017
7/1/2
01713000
13100
13200
13300
13400
13500
13600
13700
13800
13900
14000
14100
Male Prison Population and Forecasts
Deer Ridge Opens Junction City Opens April 2013 Forecast (no 3194 impacts)Actual prison population April 2015 Forecast (full 3194 impacts) October 2015 Forecast (full 3194 impacts)
1/1/2
013
5/1/2
013
9/1/2
013
1/1/2
014
5/1/2
014
9/1/2
014
1/1/2
015
5/1/2
015
9/1/2
015
1/1/2
016
5/1/2
016
9/1/2
016
1/1/2
017
5/1/2
017
9/1/2
017
1/1/2
018
5/1/2
018
9/1/2
018
1/1/2
019
5/1/2
019
9/1/2
019
1/1/2
020
5/1/2
020
9/1/2
020
1/1/2
021
5/1/2
021
9/1/2
021
1/1/2
022
5/1/2
022
9/1/2
022
1/1/2
023
5/1/2
023
9/1/2
023
1/1/2
024
5/1/2
024
9/1/2
024
1/1/2
025
5/1/2
025
9/1/2
02513000
13200
13400
13600
13800
14000
14200
14400
14600
14800
15000
Male Prison Population and Forecasts to Sept 2025
Deer Ridge Opens Junction City Opens April 2013 Forecast (no 3194 impacts)Actual prison population April 2015 Forecast (full 3194 impacts) October 2015 Forecast (full 3194 impacts)
Intakes Reduction Goal
Intakes Reduction Goal• To avoid additional permanent beds intakes must be
reduced• A statewide reduction of 25 male intakes a month
beginning December 2015 will avoid new permanent beds• A statewide reduction of 6 female intakes a month
beginning December 2015 will also avoid new permanent beds
Central/Eastern Region
• 3 fewer male intakes a month• 1 less female intake a month
Central/Eastern: 10% of total
prison months
NW Coastal Region
• 3 fewer male intakes a month• 1 less female intake a month
NW Coastal: 14% of total
prison months
Southwest Region
• 4 fewer male intakes a month• 1 less female intake a month
Southwest: 15% of total
prison months
Metro Region
• 15 fewer male intakes a month• 3 fewer female intakes a month
Metro: 61% of total
prison months
1/1/2
013
5/1/2
013
9/1/2
013
1/1/2
014
5/1/2
014
9/1/2
014
1/1/2
015
5/1/2
015
9/1/2
015
1/1/2
016
5/1/2
016
9/1/2
016
1/1/2
017
5/1/2
017
9/1/2
017
1/1/2
018
5/1/2
018
9/1/2
018
1/1/2
019
5/1/2
019
9/1/2
019
1/1/2
020
5/1/2
020
9/1/2
020
1/1/2
021
5/1/2
021
9/1/2
021
1/1/2
022
5/1/2
022
9/1/2
022
1/1/2
023
5/1/2
023
9/1/2
023
1/1/2
024
5/1/2
024
9/1/2
024
1/1/2
025
5/1/2
025
9/1/2
0251150
1175
1200
1225
1250
1275
1300
1325
1350
1375
Female Prison Population and Forecasts to Sept 2025
OSP Minimum Opens Actual prison populationOctober 2015 Forecast October 2015 Forecast minus Reduced Intakes Estimate
OSP Minimum is avoided in the 10 year horizon
1/1/2
013
5/1/2
013
9/1/2
013
1/1/2
014
5/1/2
014
9/1/2
014
1/1/2
015
5/1/2
015
9/1/2
015
1/1/2
016
5/1/2
016
9/1/2
016
1/1/2
017
5/1/2
017
9/1/2
017
1/1/2
018
5/1/2
018
9/1/2
018
1/1/2
019
5/1/2
019
9/1/2
019
1/1/2
020
5/1/2
020
9/1/2
020
1/1/2
021
5/1/2
021
9/1/2
021
1/1/2
022
5/1/2
022
9/1/2
022
1/1/2
023
5/1/2
023
9/1/2
023
1/1/2
024
5/1/2
024
9/1/2
024
1/1/2
025
5/1/2
025
9/1/2
02513000
13100
13200
13300
13400
13500
13600
13700
13800
13900
14000
14100
14200
Male Prison Population and Forecasts to Sept 2025
Deer Ridge Opens Junction City OpensActual prison population October 2015 ForecastOctober 2015 Forecast minus Reduced Intakes Estimate
Deer Ridge comes online July 2020Junction City is avoided in the 10 year horizon
Questions?
http://www.oregon.gov/CJC
Public Safety Task Force
FLOYD PROZANSKI Co-chair, Senator District 4 JACKIE WINTERS Co-chair, Senator, District 10 JENNIFER WILLIAMSON Co-chair, Representative, District 36 ANDY OLSON Co-chair, Representative, District 15 RICHARD BARRON Judge, Coos CountyJULIE FRANTZ Judge, Multnomah County
JAY DIXON Commissioner, Benton CountyROBERT HERMANN District Attorney, Washington County LANE BORG Public Defender, Multnomah/Washington County JASON MYERS
Sheriff, Marion County JOHN TEAGUE Police Chief, Keizer, Marion County SCOTT TAYLOR Community Justice, Multnomah County STEVE DOELL Crime Victims United, Portland, Multnomah County
1. Why is Justice Reinvestment important to you and the organization you represent on the task force? 2. What can you and others in similar positions around the state do to keep Justice Reinvestment working?