Just Jobs for Growth and StabilityJust Jobs for Growth and Stability

  

Global Employment Trends and Global Employment Trends and Employment Trends in MENA and Employment Trends in MENA and EgyptEgypt

D. SchmidtD. Schmidt

Employment SpecialistEmployment Specialist

ILO Decent Work Team for North AfricaILO Decent Work Team for North Africa

Part 1:Part 1:Global Employment Trends 2011: Global Employment Trends 2011:

The Challenge of a Jobs RecoveryThe Challenge of a Jobs Recovery

Key findings of GET Key findings of GET 20112011

i.i. Economic recovery has not been matched by a comparable Economic recovery has not been matched by a comparable employment recoveryemployment recovery

Divergent paths: developed versus developing economiesDivergent paths: developed versus developing economies

ii.ii. Unemployment remains elevatedUnemployment remains elevated

iii.iii. Growing number of discouraged workers, particularly Growing number of discouraged workers, particularly affecting youthaffecting youth

iv.iv. Pressure on employment quality, lag in recovery in wagesPressure on employment quality, lag in recovery in wages

v.v. Slowed progress in reducing vulnerable employment and Slowed progress in reducing vulnerable employment and working povertyworking poverty

vi.vi. Continued economic growth in 2011, yet downside risks Continued economic growth in 2011, yet downside risks predominate and unemployment will remain highpredominate and unemployment will remain high

Global employmentGlobal employmentSteep declines in many developed economies mar global increase

Global unemploymentGlobal unemploymentUnemployment remains elevated

Global unemploymentGlobal unemployment

205 million unemployed in 2010, up 27.6 million 205 million unemployed in 2010, up 27.6 million since 2007since 2007

Projected global unemployment of 203.3 million Projected global unemployment of 203.3 million in 2011.in 2011.

Unemployment remains elevated in the Unemployment remains elevated in the Developed Economies and EU, Central and Developed Economies and EU, Central and South-Eastern Europe, Latin America and South-Eastern Europe, Latin America and Caribbean and North Africa regions.Caribbean and North Africa regions.

Discouragement hides additional “unemployed”Discouragement hides additional “unemployed” Increase in part-time workIncrease in part-time work

Developed economies account for most of unemployment increase

Pressure on employment qualityPressure on employment quality

Global output per worker declined by 1.4% in Global output per worker declined by 1.4% in 2009, grew by 3.1% in 20102009, grew by 3.1% in 2010

Global real monthly wages rose by 0.7 Global real monthly wages rose by 0.7 percent in 2009, down from 0.8 percent percent in 2009, down from 0.8 percent growth in 2008 and 2.2 percent in 2007.growth in 2008 and 2.2 percent in 2007.

The delay in the labour market recovery is The delay in the labour market recovery is seen with the sluggish resumption of wage seen with the sluggish resumption of wage growth in many countriesgrowth in many countries

Global labour productivity fell as employment increased

Employment by sectorEmployment by sectorIndustrial employment hit hardest

Vulnerable Vulnerable employmentemployment

Stagnating progress in reducing vulnerable employment

Working poverty (USD 1.25 a Working poverty (USD 1.25 a day)day)

Slowed progress in reducing working poverty

Part 2:Part 2:

Labour Markets in the MENA regionLabour Markets in the MENA region

Labour market situation Labour market situation prior to the crises and prior to the crises and thereafter in MENAthereafter in MENA Slightly positive trends before the crisis were Slightly positive trends before the crisis were

interrupted during the crisis but not reversedinterrupted during the crisis but not reversed Key challenges remain the same:Key challenges remain the same:

– Low employment-to-population ratios (46.2% Low employment-to-population ratios (46.2% in 2010)in 2010)

– High unemployment rates (10.1%), High unemployment rates (10.1%), especially for women (15.8%) and youth especially for women (15.8%) and youth (24.8%, 21.5% male and 33% female)(24.8%, 21.5% male and 33% female)

– Unemployment across all levels of income Unemployment across all levels of income and educationand education

– Lack of high quality jobs (persistence of Lack of high quality jobs (persistence of vulnerable employment (37% in 2009) and vulnerable employment (37% in 2009) and working poverty at USDollar 2 a day working poverty at USDollar 2 a day (especially in North Africa with 1/3 of total (especially in North Africa with 1/3 of total employment)employment)

Labour market situation Labour market situation prior to the crises and prior to the crises and thereafter in MENAthereafter in MENAKey challenges remain the same:Key challenges remain the same:

– Slow structural shifts (26.2 agr.; 52.3 Slow structural shifts (26.2 agr.; 52.3 services; 21.5 industry)services; 21.5 industry)

– High share of public sector employment (1/3)High share of public sector employment (1/3)– Limited growth in productivityLimited growth in productivity– Lack of social dialogueLack of social dialogue– Lack of social protectionLack of social protection– Skills issuesSkills issues

MismatchMismatch Lack of investment in workersLack of investment in workers Work attitudesWork attitudes Employer’s attitudesEmployer’s attitudes

Youth unemploymentYouth unemployment

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Developed Economies & European Union

Central & South Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS

East Asia

South East Asia & the Pacific

South Asia

Latin America & the Caribbean

Middle East

North Africa

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2010Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2010

Employment-to-Employment-to-population ratiopopulation ratio

Productivity and productivity growthProductivity and productivity growth

Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2010Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2010

Source: Montenegro and Hirn (2009)

Part 3: Part 3: EgyptEgypt The greatest threat to Egypt’s economic and social The greatest threat to Egypt’s economic and social

progress is its tremendous lack of decent work progress is its tremendous lack of decent work opportunities for young people (aged 15 to 29)opportunities for young people (aged 15 to 29)

Unemployment rate: 14 % for young men Unemployment rate: 14 % for young men 45 % for young women45 % for young women And: Young people have to accept low productivity, low And: Young people have to accept low productivity, low

paid and insecure jobs, far below their capabilities. paid and insecure jobs, far below their capabilities.

Some more factsSome more facts A rapidly increasing labour force - 700,000 new entrants every year translating into A rapidly increasing labour force - 700,000 new entrants every year translating into

high unemployment rates especially for young people and women and across all levels high unemployment rates especially for young people and women and across all levels of education. of education.

Unemployment appears across all income groups and educational levelsUnemployment appears across all income groups and educational levels Roughly 3 out of 10 people working in Egypt occupy a vulnerable job Roughly 3 out of 10 people working in Egypt occupy a vulnerable job Agriculture accounted for almost one third of all employed people in 2009. The largest Agriculture accounted for almost one third of all employed people in 2009. The largest

sector is the service sector that accounts for roughly 45 per cent of overall sector is the service sector that accounts for roughly 45 per cent of overall employment. employment.

High share of public sector employment High share of public sector employment Limited growth in productivityLimited growth in productivity Poor quality of education systems including of vocational training– Poor quality of education systems including of vocational training– Non-conducive environment for MSMEsNon-conducive environment for MSMEs Mismanaged migration Mismanaged migration Limited existence of solid analysis of labour markets and of labour market policies Limited existence of solid analysis of labour markets and of labour market policies Low wage and ridiculous minimum wage Low wage and ridiculous minimum wage Weak Social Dialogue Weak Social Dialogue Limited social protection Limited social protection  Non functioning employment servicesNon functioning employment services Etc.... Etc....

• Focus on macro-economic indicators •Job creation is lacking behind population growth • Skills produced often do not match labour market needs• Expectations of young people and enterprises do not match• The matching process between supply and demand is not working• Not many young people are engaged in self-employment• The responsible Ministry (Ministry of Manpower and Migration) is not in a strong enough position to fulfil its mandate• Interventions have often been fragmented and not Interlinked •Partnerships in youth employment related areas are not working well, neither at the national level, nor at the regional or local level• Labour market institutions lack capacity•...

Root causesRoot causes

MATCHING PROCESS

Social Dialogue

Social Protection

Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention