june / july 2008 - national grid/media/files/n/national-grid-ir/... · contracts that arise from...
TRANSCRIPT
European Roadshow
June / July 2008
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Cautionary statement
Unless otherwise stated, all financial data of National Grid contained in this presentation is as reported under IFRS. This presentation contains certain
statements that are neither reported financial results nor other historical information. These statements are forward-looking statements within the meaning of
Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. These statements include
information with respect to National Grid’s financial condition, National Grid’s results of operations and businesses, strategy, plans and objectives. Words such
as “anticipates”, “expects”, “intends”, “plans”, “believes”, “seeks”, “estimates”, “may”, “will”, “continue”, “project” and similar expressions, as well as statements
in the future tense, identify forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of National Grid’s future performance and are
subject to assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause actual future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by such forward-
looking statements. Many of these assumptions, risks and uncertainties relate to factors that are beyond National Grid’s ability to control or estimate precisely,
such as delays in obtaining, or adverse conditions contained in, regulatory approvals and contractual consents, unseasonable weather affecting the demand for
electricity and gas, competition and industry restructuring, changes in economic conditions, currency fluctuations, changes in interest and tax rates, changes in
energy market prices, changes in historical weather patterns, changes in laws, regulations or regulatory policies, developments in legal or public policy
doctrines, the impact of changes to accounting standards and technological developments. Other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from
those described in this presentation include the ability to integrate the businesses relating to announced or recently completed acquisitions with National Grid’s
existing business to realise the expected synergies from such integration, the availability of new acquisition opportunities and the timing and success of future
acquisition opportunities, the timing and success or other impact of the sales of National Grid’s non-core businesses, the failure for any reason to achieve
reductions in costs or to achieve operational efficiencies, the failure to retain key management, the behaviour of UK electricity market participants on system
balancing, the timing of amendments in prices to shippers in the UK gas market, the performance of National Grid’s pension schemes and the regulatory
treatment of pension costs, and any adverse consequences arising from outages on or otherwise affecting energy networks, including gas pipelines owned or
operated by National Grid. For a more detailed description of some of these assumptions, risks and uncertainties, together with any other risk factors, please
see National Grid’s filings with and submissions to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) (and in particular the "Risk Factors" and
"Operating and Financial Review" sections in its most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F). Except as may be required by law or regulation, National Grid
undertakes no obligation to update any of its forward-looking statements. The effects of these factors are difficult to predict. New factors emerge from time to
time and National Grid cannot assess the potential impact of any such factor on its activities or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may
cause results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement.
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National Grid…… a leading international electricity and gas company
Overview
� Owner/operator of gas/electricity networks in UK/US
� UK - Largest utility i
� US - 2nd largest utility ii
� 95% of our activities* are regulated� Predictable revenues and cashflows
� Remainder under long term contracts
� Market cap - c. £18bn
� Regulated RAV + Rate Base** - c. £25bn
� Other businesses
� Isle of Grain, Metering, BritNed, Property
ii By reference to customer numbers
i By reference to market capitalisation
Electricity T&D
$4 trillion
* By operating profit
** National Grid estimates for 31 March 2008. Excludes stranded costs
£17.2bn
UK regulated asset base**
7% upstate NY
gas distribution
$15.2bn
23% upstate
NY electricity distribution
4% Long
Island
generation
19% New England
electricity transmission & distribution
20% New England gas distribution
27% downstate NY gas
distribution
US regulated asset base**
38% gas
distribution38% electricity
transmission
24% gas
transmission
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National Grid…… facts and figures on the Group (IFRS)
Operating profit (£bn)*
0.0
1.0
2.0
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
Earnings per share (p)*
0
20
40
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
Revenue (£bn)*
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
* Measured on a business performance basis, excluding US stranded cost recoveries. Business performance results are the primary financial performance measure used by National Grid, being the results for continuing operations before exceptional items and remeasurements. Remeasurements are movements in the carrying value of financial instruments and of commodity
contracts that arise from changes in mark-to-market values or in exchange rates and are reflected in the income statement to the extent that hedge accounting is not achieved or is not fully
effective.
1 Gross debt defined as net debt plus cash and cash equivalents and investments
Gross External Debt1 at March 31 2008 (£m)IFRS
National Grid plc and NGG Finance plc 5,277
National Grid Electricity Transmission plc 3,864
National Grid Gas plc 6,0332
National Grid Grain LNG 288
Total UK gross external debt 15,462
Total US (£1=$1.9845) 4,451
Other (3)
Total IFRS gross external debt 19,910
Less Cash and Investments (2,269)
Net debt 17,641
2 Measured as the contribution to the consolidated Group accounts
(£m)IFRS
+28%
+25%
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Evolution of the Group
Niagara Mohawk
NEES / EUA
Lattice
Crown Castle UK
National GridGroup
National GridGroup
KeySpan
Rhode Islandgas distribution
National GridCompany
National GridTransco
British Gas
Demergers:Centrica and BG
c. $2.0bn EV
Sale of 4 UK gas
distribution networks
c. £5.8bn ($11.6bn) proceedsEV c. $575m
EV c.$11.8bn
c. $8.2bn EV
c. $5.1bn EVEV = Enterprise Value = total of cash &
equity purchase/sale price + acquired/sold debt
FX rate used for conversion = GBP/USD 2.0
Sale of wireless and
Basslink assets
Sale of Ravenswood Generation
c. £3.2bn ($6.4bn) proceeds
c. $2.9bn expected proceeds
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National Grid…… multiple regulated utility businesses in our corporate structure
National Grid plcBaa1 / BBB+ / BBB+
National Grid Holdings One plcNR / BBB+ / NR
NGG Finance plcNational Grid USA
A3 / BBB+ / NR
Niagara Mohawk Power Corp A3 / BBB+ / NR
Lattice Group plc
National Grid Grain LNGNational Grid PropertyMetering (unregulated)
National Grid Gas plcA3 / A- / A
National Grid Gas Holdings plc
A3 / BBB+ / A
NGUSA Other businesses
National GridHoldings Ltd
National Grid ElectricityTransmission plc
A3 / A- / A
Guarantee over bonds
National Grid Commercial Holdings
Ltd
British Transco Capital IncBritish Transco International
Finance BVBritish Transco Finance Inc
Massachusetts Electric A3 / A- / NR
New England Power A3 / A- / NR
Granite State Electric
Nantucket Electric
Narragansett ElectricA3 / A- / NR
KeySpan CorpBaa1 / A- / A-
KeySpan Gas East Corp A3 / A / A
National Grid NEHoldings 2 LLC
The Brooklyn Union Gas Company
NR / A / A+
Colonial Gas Co A3 / A- / NRBoston Gas Co. Baa1 / A- / NREssex Gas Co.EnergyNorth Natural Gas Inc
National Grid Generation LLC Baa1/ A- /NR
KeySpan Other businesses
KeySpan Energy Corporation
Other
KeySpan Ravenswood
Guarantee over preference shares
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What our core businesses do…
… Transmission
Note: In the US National Grid has 20.4% interest in Iroquois Gas Transmission System and 26.5% interest in Millennium Pipeline NY
c.7,400 km of high pressure gas pipeline; c.7,200 circuit kilometres of high-voltage overhead line; c.675 km of underground electricity cable
c.13,800 km of electricity transmission network; 224 km direct current transmission line
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What our core businesses do…… Gas distribution
c.132,000 km of distribution pipelines; Distributes gas on
behalf of gas shippers and suppliers to 10.8m consumers
Around 3.5 million customers; nearly 58,000 km of main and distribution pipe
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What our core businesses do…… Electricity distribution and generation
3.4 million electricity customers; Distribution network of 116,000 circuit kilometres; 4,119 MW of generation capacity (excluding Ravenswood which is to be sold)
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Non-regulated businesses
National Grid’s non-regulated businesses and other operations are located in the UK and either operate in the market related to those of its principal businesses or provide support to its businesses.
Key facts
� National Grid Metering and Onstream provide metering and meter reading services for over 20 million domestic, industrial and commercial meters on behalf of gas and electricity suppliers
� Grain LNG - National Grid’s liquefied natural gas facility at the isle of Grain is the first new LNG import terminal in the UK for30 years. Operating since July 2005, Grain LNG is a world-class facility providing a vital link between the UK, European gas markets and global LNG sources.
� National Grid Property is responsible for managing all our major occupied properties in the UK, and for the management, clean up and disposal of surplus properties, largely comprising contaminated former gas works.
� Fulcrum Connections is the largest provider of gas connections and associated design services with a national footprint in the UK.
UK Property
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Regulatory overview
� In the US, for regulatory purposes, we maintain several separatePublic Utility Companies, a number of which have more than one rate plan
� Electric transmission
� Electric distribution
� Gas distribution
� Generation
� In the UK, services are provided through 2 separate regulated entities with distinct price controls
� Electric transmission
� Gas transmission
� Gas distribution
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Regulatory process…
… many common elements to rate agreements in UK and US
� Return on asset base
� Opex allowance
� Pensions and tax allowance
� No commodity exposure
� Incentive mechanisms
� Some residual volume drivers
� Protection from uncontrollable costs
� Varied approaches to capex
� No volume exposure
� Indexation
� Capex revenue drivers
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Valuing our regulated businesses…
… main value drivers same
� Asset replacement
� Load related investment
� Local cost of capital
� Investment efficiencies
� Global operating model
� Global IS & Shared Services
Growth in asset / rate base
Financial outperformance
Operating outperformance
SAME VALUE DRIVERS
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Valuing our regulated businesses…… forecast asset base growth over 35% in UK & over 25% in US
2006/07 2011/12 2006/07 2011/12
£19.2bn
£14bn
$14.3bn*$18.2bn
*Excludes US stranded costs ($1.7bn)
UK - opening 2006/07 RAV. US - average rate base for 2006 calendar year
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Regulatory settlements…
… staggered rate plans provide further stability
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Transmission (2)
Gas Distribution (4)
NiMo (electric)
NiMo (gas)
Brooklyn Union Gas
KeySpan Gas East
MECO
Boston Gas
Essex Gas
Colonial Gas
Narrangansett (elec.)
Narragansett (gas)
GSE
Energy North
LI Generation
NEP Formula transmission rates
Rate case in progress
Rate case in progress
Rate case in progress
FE
RC
NH
Rh
od
e
Isla
nd
Ma
ssa
-c
hu
se
tts
New
Yo
rkO
fge
m
to 2019
to 2019
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Investment…... capital expenditure in regulated businesses and infrastructure projects has increased over the past 3 years
£ billion
0
5
10
15
2006 - 2012
Expected balance to 2012
Expected in 2008/09
Delivered in 2007/08
Delivered in 2006/07
~£7.5bn
~£3.0bn
£3.1bn
£2.3bn
Drivers of capital expenditure to 2012 and beyond
WindWind
NuclearNuclear
Thermal generationThermal generation
Other renewablesOther renewables
More inter-connectionMore inter-connection
‘Smart grids’‘Smart grids’
Smart meteringSmart metering
Changing demand patternsChanging demand patterns
Continued asset replacementContinued asset replacement
More network connections
More network connections
New technologyNew technology
Increased
investment
in networksfor the
future
Increased
investment
in networksfor the
future
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Funding the Group…... debt maturities and regulated investment drive issuance
Net debt is expected to rise from £17.6bn at 31st March 2008 to c.£19bn at March 2009 and £22bn - £23bn at March 2012.
Maturities of c. £6bn to March 2012.
The Group has raised c. £1bn since 31st March 2008.
Outstanding requirement for net new funding of approximately £4bn by 31st March 2012.
Around £1.5bn is required by March 2009 from a combination of bank loans, commercial paper and bond issuance.
Possible issuance from UK OpCos, NG plc and the NGUSA Group.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
08/0
9
09/1
010/1
1
11/1
212/1
3
13/1
414/1
515/1
6
16/1
717/1
8
18/1
919/2
0
20/2
121/2
2
22/2
323/2
4
24/2
525/2
6
26/2
727/2
828/2
9
29/3
030/3
1
31/3
232/3
3
33/3
434/3
5
35/3
636/3
7
37/3
838/3
9
39/4
040/4
141/4
2
43/4
446/4
7
48/4
952/5
3
56/5
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Maturity
£ equiv
. (m
)
National Grid Grain LNG
National Grid USA Group
National Grid / NGGF
National Grid Electricity Transmission
National Grid Gas Group
National Grid Group Long Term Debt Maturity Profile as at 15 May 2008
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Funding the Group…… liquidity
Minimal impact from the credit crunch
� spreads to LIBOR have risen but rates have fallen
� Commercial Paper markets have remained open to National Grid throughout
� c. £2.9bn of undrawn committed borrowing facilities
Limited exposure to institutions impacted by the credit crunch
� no direct exposure to US subprime mortgage market
� cash balances spread between institutions
� principally AAA-rated Money Funds
� credit exposure to all institutions managed and monitored according to credit rating
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Group borrowing facilities and liquidity as at 15th May 2008
� $1.5bn 364-day undrawn syndicated loan facility with 12-month term out; terminates 12th November 2008 with no MAC event of default or ratings related covenants. National Grid USA is a named borrower
� Short-term funding programmes:
� USCP $3bn: Nil outstanding
� ECP $1.5bn: Nil outstanding
� €15bn EMTN programme (joint with NGET):
� National Grid in issue €6.4bn; NGET €2.7bn
� €5.9bn unissued
� $355m NGUSA syndicated loan facility (5-year Revolving Credit Facility). Expires November 2009
� $325m NGUSA syndicated loan facility (5-year Standby Bond Purchase Facility). Expires November 2009
� $2bn NGUSA commercial paper programme: c.$500m outstanding
� €4bn NGUSA EMTN programme: €99m issued
� $1.5bn undrawn KeySpan Corporation syndicated loan facility maturing June 2009 ($580m) and June 2010 ($920m)
� $1.5bn KeySpan Corporation US commercial paper programme: c.$200m outstanding
� £810m undrawn committed bank lines – 5 year duration; minimal covenants. Expires December 2010
� Short-term funding programmes:
� USCP $2.5bn: Nil outstanding
� ECP $1.25bn: Nil outstanding
� €10bn EMTN programme: €4.2bn unissued
� £425m undrawn committed bank lines – 5 year duration, minimal covenants. Expires December 2010
� Short-term funding programmes:
� USCP $1bn: Nil outstanding
� ECP $1bn: Nil outstanding
National Grid plc
National Grid USA Group
National Grid Gas plc
National Grid Electricity Transmission plc
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Predictability of regulated cash flows is a key factor in our ratings…… Group credit ratings
The ratings set forth above are not a recommendation to purchase, hold or sell National Grid’s notes, that may be issued from time to time, inasmuch as the ratings do not comment as to market price or suitability for a particular investor. The ratings are based on current information we have furnished to the rating agencies and information obtained by the rating agencies from othersources. The ratings are only accurate as of the date hereof and may be changed, superseded or withdrawn as a result of changes in, or unavailability of, such information and, therefore, a prospective purchaser should check the current ratings before purchasing National Grid’s notes.
A/---A/---A3/---KeySpan Gas East Corporation
A+/---A/---Not ratedThe Brooklyn Union Gas Company
A-/---A-/A2Baa1/P2KeySpan Corporation
Not ratedA-/--Baa1/--Boston Gas Company
Not ratedA-3/---A3/---Colonial Gas Company
Not ratedA-3/A2A32/---The Narragansett Electric Co.
Not ratedBBB+/A2A3/--Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation
Not ratedBBB+/A2A3/P2National Grid USA
Not ratedA-/A2A3/P2New England Power Co.
Not ratedA-/A2A3/P2Massachusetts Electric Co.
1Moody’s ratings placed on Negative Outlook on 31st January 2008 2 Issuer rating 3 Corporate credit rating
Not ratedA-3/---Baa1/---National Grid Generation LLC
A/---BBB+/---A3/---National Grid Gas Holdings plc
A/F2A-/A2A3/P2National Grid Gas plc
Not ratedBBB+/A2Not ratedNational Grid Holdings One plc
A/F2A-/A2A3/P2National Grid Electricity Transmission plc
BBB+/F2BBB+/A2Baa1/P2National Grid plc
FitchS&PMoody’s1Senior Unsecured / Short-Term ratings
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2008/09 financing metric
Interest cover
� Reflects the calculation used by our credit rating agencies
� 3.2x for the year
� Aim to manage within a range of 3.0 – 3.5x
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
Target range Interest cover
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National Grid…… what to look out for
� Sale of Ravenswood
� US gas rate plan agreements
� Deliver KeySpan integration and update on synergies against target
� Continue to implement global operating model
� Dialogue with NYPSC over additional New York investment
� Deliver capital investment plans and Rate Base growth
� Potential debt issuance opportunities in the NGUSA Group
Continued commitment to A range ratings at UK OpCos
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Treasury Contacts
Malcolm Cooper (Group Tax and Treasury Director):
D: +44 (0)20 7004 3340 [email protected]
Andrew Kluth (Assistant Treasurer, Funding):
D: +44 (0)20 7004 3365 [email protected]
Andy Mead (Manager, Corporate Banking):
D: +44 (0)20 7004 3369 [email protected]
David Bonar (Manager, Structured Finance):
D: +44 (0)20 7004 3368 [email protected]
David Morgan (Assistant Manager, Corporate Banking):
D: +44 (0)20 7004 3379 [email protected]
Group Website: www.nationalgrid.com
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