june 2015 trade analyst monthly
TRANSCRIPT
Global Commodity Prices Showed Lacklustre Performance … Energy Prices: Year-to-date energy prices have experienced some gains although the pace of growth have varied. For instance, Oil prices have
seen a 13% gain between January and May ending, while coal prices have only advanced by 3% during the same period. In May, energy prices
were relatively stable. Oil prices (Brent Crude) stabilized above $60/bl ranging between $62.3/bl and $67.5/bl, as inventories rose at a slower pace
and production levels remained stable. At May average of $65.64/bl, the price of oil is $12.65/bl above the budget benchmark of $53/bl. We ex-
pect prices to remain above $60 as production declines set in from the steady fall in oil rigs in the US.
Metals: In May, prices of most metals remained moderate with the exception of Copper and Lead. The initial rally in copper during t he month
which was driven by optimism over the impact of stimulus measures in China, waned at the tail-end on threat of substitution by Nickel. Iron Ore
however advanced by 10% during the month on supply concerns as Brazil reduces exports, thereby reducing the pace of negative growth recorded
year-to-date. Precious metals, Gold and Silver held sway during the month amid weak US consumer sentiment data and dollar volatility.
Agriculture: Prices of most commodities were depressed in May with the exception of Cocoa and Palm Oil which advanced by 5% and 3% re-
spectively, as global food prices eased on favourable supply conditions. Year to date, Cocoa and Cotton prices have advanced by 6% and 4% re-
spectively while the other commodities in our basket have seen price declines ranging between 13% and 23%. Cocoa has been on a demand -
based rally since 2014 as the taste for chocolate continues to grow globally. However, the price of cocoa has been shored up recently on supply
concerns arising from the cocoa-pod-killing-fungus threatening harvests in Ghana.
Nigerian Export-Import Bank June 2015
Economic & Trade Trends
Manufacturing , Agriculture, Solid Minerals and Services
Energy: Year-to-Date Energy: Monthly Trend (July)
Nigeria Marks an Epoch as Muhammadu Buhari Assumes Office as President
May 29, 2015 marked a new beginning in Nigeria as President Muhammadu Buhari was sworn-in during a ceremony that had over 50 global lead-
ers and presidents in attendance. The new President indicated in his speech that his immediate priorities will be the Boko Haram insurgency,
lingering grievances in the Niger Delta, poor power supply and unemployment, especially amongst the youth. He explained that in the long run
challenges facing Medicare, education and infrastructure would be tackled. Further to his commitment on the fight against the insurgents, he
announced plans to immediately relocate the military command centre to Maiduguri in Borno State, being the epicenter of the insurgency, until
the sect is completely subdued. While remaining optimistic, investors and market watchers still await more concrete policy announcements that
will set the direction for trade and investments flows.
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
05-Ja
n-15
11-Ja
n-15
17-Ja
n-15
23-Ja
n-15
29-Ja
n-15
04-F
eb-1
5
10-F
eb-1
5
16-F
eb-1
5
22-F
eb-1
5
28-F
eb-1
5
06-M
ar-1
5
12-M
ar-1
5
18-M
ar-1
5
24-M
ar-1
5
30-M
ar-1
5
05-A
pr-1
5
11-A
pr-1
5
17-A
pr-1
5
23-A
pr-1
5
29-A
pr-1
5
05-M
ay-1
5
11-M
ay-1
5
17-M
ay-1
5
23-M
ay-1
5
29-M
ay-1
5
Brent Coal
Contact: [email protected]
85
90
95
100
105
30-A
pr-1
5
02-M
ay-1
5
04-M
ay-1
5
06-M
ay-1
5
08-M
ay-1
5
10-M
ay-1
5
12-M
ay-1
5
14-M
ay-1
5
16-M
ay-1
5
18-M
ay-1
5
20-M
ay-1
5
22-M
ay-1
5
24-M
ay-1
5
26-M
ay-1
5
28-M
ay-1
5Brent Coal
30
50
70
90
110
130
05
-Ja
n-1
5
11-
Jan
-15
17
-Ja
n-1
5
23-
Jan
-15
29
-Ja
n-1
5
04-
Feb
-15
10
-Fe
b-1
5
16-
Feb
-15
22
-Fe
b-1
5
28-
Feb
-15
06
-Ma
r-1
5
12-
Mar
-15
18
-Ma
r-1
5
24
-Ma
r-1
5
30
-Ma
r-1
5
05
-Ap
r-1
5
11
-Ap
r-1
5
17
-Ap
r-1
5
23-
Ap
r-1
5
29
-Ap
r-1
5
05-M
ay-1
5
11-M
ay-1
5
17-M
ay-1
5
23-M
ay-1
5
29-M
ay-1
5
31/12/14=100
Copper Lead Iron-Ore Gold Silver Tin
Metals: Year-to-Date Metals: Monthly Trend (July)
70
80
90
100
110
120
30-A
pr-1
5
02-M
ay-1
5
04-M
ay-1
5
06-M
ay-1
5
08-M
ay-1
5
10-M
ay-1
5
12-M
ay-1
5
14-M
ay-1
5
16-M
ay-1
5
18-M
ay-1
5
20-M
ay-1
5
22-M
ay-1
5
24-M
ay-1
5
26-M
ay-1
5
28-M
ay-1
5
Copper Lead Iron-Ore Gold Silver Tin
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
05-Ja
n-15
11-Ja
n-15
17-Ja
n-15
23-Ja
n-15
29-Ja
n-15
04-Fe
b-15
10-Fe
b-15
16-Fe
b-15
22-Fe
b-15
28-Fe
b-15
06-M
ar-15
12-M
ar-15
18-M
ar-15
24-M
ar-15
30-M
ar-15
05-Ap
r-15
11-Ap
r-15
17-Ap
r-15
23-Ap
r-15
29-Ap
r-15
05-M
ay-15
11-M
ay-15
17-M
ay-15
23-M
ay-15
29-M
ay-15
31/12/14=100
Corn Cocoa Coffee Palm Oil Cotton Sugar
Agriculture: Year-to-Date
70
80
90
100
110
30-A
pr-1
5
01-M
ay-1
5
02-M
ay-1
5
03-M
ay-1
5
04-M
ay-1
5
05-M
ay-1
5
06-M
ay-1
5
07-M
ay-1
5
08-M
ay-1
5
09-M
ay-1
5
10-M
ay-1
5
11-M
ay-1
5
12-M
ay-1
5
13-M
ay-1
5
14-M
ay-1
5
15-M
ay-1
5
16-M
ay-1
5
17-M
ay-1
5
18-M
ay-1
5
19-M
ay-1
5
20-M
ay-1
5
21-M
ay-1
5
22-M
ay-1
5
23-M
ay-1
5
24-M
ay-1
5
25-M
ay-1
5
26-M
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5
27-M
ay-1
5
28-M
ay-1
5
29-M
ay-1
5
Corn Cocoa Coffee Palm Oil Cotton Sugar
Agriculture: Monthly Trend July
Nigerian Export-Import Bank June 2015
Economic & Trade Trends
Manufacturing , Agriculture, Solid Minerals and Services Sectors
GDP: Q1 2015 drops lower on elections, exchange rate devaluation and worsening oil sector
According to report released by the NBS during May, Nigeria’s GDP y-o-y growth rate in Q1 2015 dropped lower to 3.96% from 5.94% in Q4 2015
and 6.21% in the corresponding period of 2014. The drop in GDP, which was the lowest since Q1 2012, was attributed to a combination of factors
which include effect of lower oil prices on government revenue, impact of political uncertainty on investment activities and the effects of weaker
currency on consumer expenditure and industrial output.
The non-oil sector remained the main driver of growth during the quarter, growing at a slower rate of 5.59% as against 6.64% in the previous
quarter and 8.5% in the corresponding period of 2014. In the oil sector, the situation worsened with a negative growth of –8.15% from 1.18%
recorded in the previous quarter and –6.6% recorded in the corresponding period of 2014, due to supply challenges and lower oil prices. Oil pro-
duction in Q1 2015 was flat at 2.18 million barrels per day, same as Q4 2014 and 0.06million barrels lower than 2.24 million barrels produced dur-
ing the corresponding period of 2014.
Services sector maintained its position as the leading contributor to GDP in Q1 with a contribution of 54.56%, as against 25.65% and 19.79% con-
tributed by the Industry and agriculture sectors, respectively. Similarly, Services sector grew faster than the other two sector groups at 7.04%,
compared to growth rates of 4.70% in agriculture and –2.53% in Industry. Sectoral contributions to the GDP were led by Agriculture at 19.79%,
Trade at 17.77%, Information & Communication at 11.47% and Mining & Quarrying at 10.61%.
Contact: [email protected]
-11.4
-16.42-14.72
-9.36
-6.6
5.14
-3.6
1.18
-8.15
7.448.88 8.46 8.78
8.216.71
7.516.44
5.5
4.455.4 5.17
6.77 6.21 6.54 6.23 5.94
3.96
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15
% Growth Trend: GDP, Oil & Non-Oil Sectors
Oil Sector Growth (%) Non-Oil Sector Growth (%) GDP Growth (%)
Agriculture, 19.79
Industry, 25.65
Services, 54.56
Q1, 2015 Contribution to GDP
Q1 2015: Merchandise Trade on the Decline
Total merchandise exports for Q1 2015 totalled N3,230.2 billion, representing a 9.3% or N275.6 billion increase over the preceding quarter and
18.6% or N739.3 billion decrease from the corresponding period of 2014. Nigeria’s exports basket was still dominated by hydrocarbons, 69.7% of
which was crude oil and 9.5% natural gas. In fact, about N2,880.3 billion or 89.2% of total exports were mainly “mineral products” while non-oil
exports accounted for only 10.9%. The major destinations of Nigeria’s exports in Q1 were India, Netherlands, Spain, South Africa and Brazil, re-
spectively representing 13.5% or N436.6 billion, 9.9% or N319.6 billion, 8.2% or N263.4 billion, 8.0% or N260 billion and 8.0 or N257billion. About
63.8% of total exports went to Europe and Asia, while 18.6% or N601 billion went to Africa out of which N277.3 billion or 46.1% of total exports to
Africa was to the ECOWAS region.
Top Ten Export Destinations Value (N) Crude Oil (N) Non-Crude Oil (N)
India 436,555,040,059.00 381,308,763,342.45 55,246,276,716.55
Netherlands 319,578,010,497.00 248,855,503,863.71 70,722,506,633.29
Spain 263,370,395,952.00 214,463,992,241.77 48,906,403,710.23
South Africa 260,024,680,929.00 238,272,056,309.50 21,752,624,619.50
Brazil 256,950,639,729.00 221,899,460,442.21 35,051,179,286.79
Ivory Coast 198,555,071,733.00 82,499,306,567.97 116,055,765,165.03
France 146,566,751,589.00 119,309,450,711.12 27,257,300,877.88
Germany 124,839,680,534.00 97,725,716,693.73 27,113,963,840.27
Japan 120,915,586,855.00 - 120,915,586,855.00
Indonesia 118,421,260,351.00 108,355,076,610.19 10,066,183,740.81
Prices Headline inflation rate rose by 8.7% y-o-y in April, 0.2% higher than the 8.5% rate rec-orded in March. This marked the fifth consecutive increase, albeit the highest rate, recorded in the year. The increase in the price index was attributed to increases in both the core (non-food) and food segments which rose by 7.7% and 9.5%, respectively. The pressure on prices is still a reflection of the pass through effect of a weaker Naira as shown especially in the increase in the food importation segment of the index. Going forward, inflation pressure is still expected to persist in the near term due to the pass-through effect of the Naira devaluation and fuel scarcity with attendant increase in transportation costs. On the other hand, the rate of inflation is expected to remain at single-digit amidst the tight monetary stance, lower commodity prices and softening aggregate demand.
Money Market …
On average, interest rates remained slightly elevated during the month, fuelled by net liquidity outflow of funds as cover for T-Bills and forex purchases and further exacer-bated by the MPC decision to harmonize the CRR at 31%. Liquidity pressures in the market subsequently abated with the disbursement of about N388.84 billion of May FAAC payments within the banking system. In this regard, over night rates rose from 9.83% to close at 12.25%, after a brief shot to 54%. Similarly, 30-, 90– and 180-day rates increased from 12.95%, 13.99% and 15.16% to close the month at 15.40%, 16.57% and 17.59%, respectively. NIBOR rates will likely remain elevated as the market adjusts to the full effects of the new CRR.
Nigerian Export-Import Bank June 2015
Economic & Trade Trends
Manufacturing , Agriculture, Solid Minerals and Services
Sources: , CBN , FMDQ, NEXIM SPD
Foreign Exchange Market The foreign exchange market experienced relative calm in May, due mainly to suppressed dollar demand as market players take a ‘wait and see’ approach in view of Nigeria’s political transition and administrative measures undertaken by the CBN. In this regard, the CBN clearing rate re-mained stable at N197/$. At the interbank market, the Naira ranged between N197.11/$ and N199.34/$ to an average of N198.06/$ as against N198.63/$ the previous month. Similarly at the Bureau De Change segment, the Naira appreciated in value from N221/$ to N216/$ during the same period. The divergence between the interbank and BDC rates still remains an incentive for arbitrage and speculative activities and cause for concern to the monetary authorities. In effect, gross official reserves rose from $29.53billion by April 30 to $29.82 billion before declining to $29.60billion by May 30, representing a marginal increase of 0.2% during the month. While downside risks to the outlook on the Forex market still remain, it is expected that the salutary effects of the recent harmonization of the CRR will keep speculative demand in check and uphold the value of the Naira against the dollar.
Inflation Trends
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met for two days on May 18 and 19 after which they decided, in a vote of 9/2 amongst the 11 mem-
bers in attendance, to harmonize the hitherto discriminatory CRR at 31% while retaining other measures, i.e. MPR at 13% and Liquidity Ratio at
30%. The Committee considered that the lopsided separation of CRR on public and private sector deposits at 75% and 20% respectively, had con-
strained the policy space and could further trigger moral hazard by private market participants. It therefore viewed the harmonization of the CRR
as imperative to curb abuses and strengthen the effectiveness of monetary policy. In effect, the harmonization has shown consonance with the
MPC’s goal of maintaining its monetary tightening stance, with the immediate withdrawal of about N141 billion from the banking sector leading
to further tightening and a jump in overnight NIBOR. Overall, the effect was mixed in the banking sector depending on each bank’s exposure to
either type of deposits.
Contact: [email protected]
Quoted BDC rates = week close
7.9 88.2
8.4 8.58.7
9.1 9.2 9.29.4 9.4 9.5
6.3 6.2
6.87.0
7.57.7
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
%
10.9610.92 13.54
53.67
0.010.020.030.040.050.060.0
30-A
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24-M
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27-M
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%
O/N 30 DAYS 90 DAYS 180 DAYS
NIBOR Trends
The Domestic Economy
203 206 205206
220 221 220 220 218.5 216
160170180190200210220230
31-
Ma
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3-A
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6-A
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Ap
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Ap
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30-
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3-M
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6-M
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9-M
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12-
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21-
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24-
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27-
Ma
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5
Exchange Rate Trend
BUREAU DE CHANGE ($/N) CBN ($/N) NIGERIAN INTERBANK ($/N)
50
60
70
80
29.30
29.40
29.50
29.60
29.70
29.80
29.90
01-A
pr-1
5
06-A
pr-1
5
11-A
pr-1
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16-A
pr-1
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21-A
pr-1
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26-A
pr-1
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01-M
ay-1
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06-M
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11-M
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16-M
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21-M
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26-M
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31-M
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5
$BN Oil Prices Vs Reserves
External Reserves ($'Bn) Oil Prices ($/bl)
Disclaimer Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document to ensure the accuracy of facts stated herein and that the infor-mation, estimates and opinions also contained herein are objective, reasonable and fair, no responsibility or liability is accepted either by NEXIM or any of its employees for any error of fact or opinion expressed herein. No reliance should be placed on the ac-curacy, fairness or completeness of the information contained in this report as it is based on secondary information. All information and opinions set forth in this document constitute the analyst(s) position as at the date of the report and may not necessarily be so after the report date as they are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only and for private circulation. No portion of this document may be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of NEXIM BANK. The report is available primarily electronically.
June 2015
Contact: [email protected]